章节大纲

  • Are banking and weather forecasting the only careers that use statistics? If you plan to go into music or film production, or perhaps advertising, do you really have any use for statistics or  probability ?
    ::银行和天气预报是否是唯一使用统计数据的职业? 如果你打算从事音乐或电影制作,或者广告,你真的对统计或者概率有任何用处吗?

    Read on, in this lesson we will discuss careers that rely on statistics and probability – some may surprise you!
    ::学习这个课程后, 我们将讨论依赖统计与概率的职业, 有些人可能会令你惊讶!

    Careers Using Probability and Statistics 
    ::利用概率和统计

    lesson content

    Professional musicians and music producers depend on knowing what types of music are most popular among members of their  target audience . A great jazz song will probably not be a platinum-seller if marketed to middle and high school students, and the latest rap sensation is probably going to be much less popular among the over-50  demographic  than among teens! Even the right kind of music for a particular audience may not be ideal to release at specific times of the year (think Christmas music in June), and otherwise less popular songs may be ‘hot’ due to other factors (when an 80’s song is used in a hit movie, sales of the original album can skyrocket).
    ::专业音乐家和音乐制作人取决于他们是否知道哪类音乐在目标受众中最受欢迎。 如果向中、高中学生推销,伟大的爵士歌曲可能不会成为白金卖家,而最新的饶舌乐在50多岁人口群体中可能比青少年更受欢迎。 即使是对特定受众的正确音乐也不理想在一年的特定时间发布(在6月想象圣诞音乐 ) , 否则,由于其他因素(当80年代的歌曲在电影中被使用时,原专辑的销售会飞速发展 ) , 而其他不那么受欢迎的歌曲也可能是“热的 ” 。

    Statistics can be remarkably helpful in determining when to record or produce a particular song or album based on how consumers have responded to similar situations in the past. Considering the number of people whose incomes depend on making the most of sales, it is no surprise that musicians and producers alike take the calculation of prime release dates and music types very seriously. For instance, if you release a Christmas song remake too soon, it’s old news by the time the actual holiday comes around and nobody wants to buy it as a present. Release the same album too late, and people may have already purchased all of the holiday gifts they can afford.
    ::统计可以非常有助于确定何时根据消费者对过去类似情况的反应来记录或制作特定歌曲或专辑。 考虑到收入依赖于充分利用销售量的人数,音乐家和制作者都非常认真地计算主要发行日期和音乐类型并不奇怪。 比如,如果你太快地发布圣诞歌曲,在实际假日到来而没有人愿意买礼物时,这是老新闻。 发行同一专辑太迟,人们可能已经购买了他们所能买到的所有假日礼物。

    Naturally the situation is similar for film production and actors/actresses. A movie about the world trying to avoid a giant asteroid may be reasonably popular in any season, but if it is released during the summer (when the biggest movie-going crowds are out of school) and right after a big news report about a comet visible in the sky… now the same movie is a multimillion dollar blockbuster!
    ::当然,电影制作和演员/演员/演员的情况也自然相似。 有关世界的电影试图避免一个巨型小行星,在任何赛季都可能相当受欢迎,但如果电影在夏季(当最大的电影观众失学时)发布,而且就在关于天空可见的彗星的新闻报导发表之后,这部电影在任何赛季都会受到欢迎。 现在,这部电影是一部价值数百万美元的电影!

    In fact the concept holds true for pretty much any product that is sold to a wide audience: the more accurately a statistician can evaluate the data for a particular product or market, the more successful the sales may be if those statistics are properly put to use.
    ::事实上,这一概念几乎适用于向广大受众出售的任何产品:统计员越能准确评估某一特定产品或市场的数据,如果这些统计数据被正确使用,销售可能越成功。

    Real-World Application: DJing
    ::真实世界应用程序: DJing

    DJ Woodz, the popular artist, is hoping to release his next Platinum Record. He learns that a recent study suggests that songs about expensive streetcars are popular right now with 62% the 19-23 year-old male crowd. Woodz also stumbles across an article that hints that a big blockbuster movie about country music will be released soon. He knows from experience that songs about making it big as a rap singer have been rather consistently well received by about 45% of males ages 17-25.
    ::著名艺术家DJ Woodz(DJ Woodz)希望发布他的下一部《白金唱片》。他了解到,最近的一项研究表明,关于昂贵的街车的歌曲现在很受欢迎,19-23岁的男性占62%。 Woodz还发现了一篇文章,其中暗示关于乡村音乐的大片将很快发行。 他从经验中知道,大约45%的17-25岁的男性一直很欣赏关于将之作为饶舌歌手的歌曲。

    How might these statistics help him to plan out his next album?
    ::这些统计数据如何帮助他规划下一张专辑?

    E.Z. can certainly make good use of the first and last statistics by recording a few songs about singers making it big and driving expensive cars! He may want to try to time the release of his album before the big movie about country music comes out, or perhaps delay it until the excitement of the film dies down. By factoring in as many accurate statistics as appropriate, Woodz can make the most of his next album.
    ::E.Z.E.肯定能够很好地利用第一张和最后一张统计数据,录制几首关于歌手制造大型汽车和驾驶昂贵汽车的歌曲!他可能想在关于乡村音乐的大电影出来之前,或者在电影的兴奋消逝之前,尝试将他的专辑的发行时间提前,或者推迟到电影的兴奋消逝为止。通过尽可能多的精确统计数据,Woodz可以充分利用他的下一张专辑。

    Real-World Application: Retail Clothing Stores 
    ::真实世界应用:零售服装商店

    Based on what you know about the application of statistics in the music and film business, can you identify some ways that statistics might benefit a retail-clothing store?
    ::根据你对音乐和电影业应用统计数据所了解的情况,你能确定一些统计可能有益于零售服装店的方式吗?

    Successful clothes retailers continuously monitor statistics such as:
    ::成功的服装零售商不断监测统计数字,例如:

    • Styles and colors that sold the best at the same time in previous years
      ::前几年同时销售最佳的样式和颜色
    • Popular trends in style, cut, and color in trend-setting areas
      ::趋势确定领域流行的风格、削减和颜色趋势趋势的流行趋势
    • Current preferences based on specific  demographics
      ::基于具体人口统计的当前偏好
    • Brands and styles currently popular at competing retailers
      ::目前在竞争激烈的零售商中流行的品牌和风格

    Real-World Application: Law Enforcement 
    ::现实世界应用:执法

    How might the application of statistics help a police officer, or an entire police force, make the most effective use of their limited funds to help keep people safe?
    ::统计数据的应用如何帮助警官或整个警察部队最有效地利用其有限的资金来帮助保护人们的安全?

    Police officers apply statistics in a number of ways. By monitoring which intersections have the most accidents, patrolmen can pay particular attention to ensuring that people drive carefully in those areas. By monitoring weather statistics, officers can be prepared for dangerous trends in the kinds of weather (snow, high winds, heavy rain), which may lead to greater need for men on duty.
    ::警官以多种方式应用统计数据,通过监测哪些交叉路口发生事故最多,巡警可以特别注意确保人们在这些地区小心驾驶,通过监测天气统计,警官可以准备应付各种天气(雪、大风、大雨)的危险趋势,这些趋势可能导致对值班男子的需求增加。

    Earlier Problem Revisited
    ::重审先前的问题

    Are banking and weather forecasting the only careers that use statistics? If you plan to go into music or film production, or perhaps advertising, do you really have any use for statistics or probability?
    ::银行和天气预报是否是唯一使用统计数据的职业? 如果你打算从事音乐或电影制作,或者广告,你真的对统计或者概率有任何用处吗?

    It is probably pretty clear now that there are many, many careers that rely on an understanding and application of probability and statistics.
    ::现在可能非常清楚的是,现在有许多、许多职业依赖于对概率和统计数据的理解和应用。

    Certainly weather forecasters and bankers monitoring interest rates use statistics daily, but so do sales managers and advertisers in nearly every market from food to clothes to entertainment. Without understanding the appropriate statistics, many (or all) of the biggest companies you know of would probably never have become successful in the first place.
    ::当然,天气预报者和监测利率的银行家每天都使用统计数据,但几乎所有市场从食品到衣服到娱乐的销售经理和广告商都使用这些数据。 不了解适当的统计数据,你所知道的最大公司中的许多(或全部)可能从一开始就永远不会成功。

    Examples
    ::实例

    Example 1
    ::例1

    What use would a travel agent have for statistics?
    ::旅行社对统计数字有什么用处?

    Travel agents can be very helpful to travellers by knowing the statistically least expensive times to travel to a particular destination, or by knowing about location that are statistically more likely to be rated highly by a particular kind of traveller, among many other things.
    ::旅行社了解前往某一目的地的统计费用最低的时间,或了解在统计上更有可能被某一类旅行者高度评价的地点,除其他外,可以对旅行者非常有益。

    Example 2
    ::例2

    How might someone who has to prepare for hurricanes and tornadoes use statistics?
    ::必须为飓风和龙卷风做准备的人如何使用统计数据?

    By studying the most active locales and seasons for dangerous weather, a person responsible for mitigating risk from such things can improve the chances that the potential victims have time to prepare.
    ::通过对最活跃的地方和季节进行危险天气的研究,负责减轻这类物质风险的人可以增加潜在受害者有时间准备的机会。

    Example 3
    ::例3

    How might a stock broker use statistics?
    ::股票经纪人如何使用统计数据?

    Stock brokers monitor the statistically likely influencing factors for different kind of stocks, in order to make educated guesses about potential price increases and decreases. Because a good broker can more often predict when a price is about to increase, he or she is in a better position to buy the stock at a lower price and re-sell it shortly afterward for more money.
    ::股票经纪人监测不同类型股票在统计上可能影响因素的影响因素,以便有意识地猜测潜在的物价增减。 因为一个好的经纪人可以更经常地预测价格何时会上涨,他或她更有能力以更低的价格购买股票,并在不久后再出售,以换取更多的钱。

    Review 
    ::回顾

    A June 2008 study by the U.S. Travel Association suggested that air travelers avoided an estimated 41 million trips over the previous 12 months because of frustration over the hassle of flying. The missed trips cost the U.S. economy more than $26 billion. Also, nearly 50 percent of travellers polled said that they believe the air travel system is not likely to improve in the near future. 
    ::美国旅行协会2008年6月的一项研究表明,由于对飞行繁忙感到沮丧,航空旅行者在过去12个月中避免了大约4 100万次旅行。 错过的旅行使美国经济损失超过260亿美元。 此外,近50%接受调查的旅行者说,他们认为航空旅行系统近期内不可能得到改善。

    The extended effect of avoided trips was also costly to other industries; hotels lost almost $6 billion and restaurants more than $3 billion. Even federal, state and local governments lost more than $4 billion in tax revenue because of reduced spending by travelers. (Source: Air Travel Survey, 2008)
    ::避免旅行的延伸影响也给其他行业带来昂贵的代价;旅馆损失近60亿美元,餐馆损失超过30亿美元,甚至联邦、州和地方政府也因为旅行者减少支出而损失了40多亿美元的税收。 (资料来源:航空旅行调查,2008年)

    1. How might a car salesman make good use of these statistics?
      ::汽车推销员如何善用这些统计数字?
    2. Would this information be useful to a potential restaurant owner?
      ::这一信息对潜在的餐馆老板有用吗?
    3. How might a car-rental company make use of this information to boost rentals?
      ::汽车租赁公司如何利用这一信息提高租金?
    4. Based on the number of lost trips, how much does the loss of a single trip, on average, cost the US economy?
      ::根据损失的旅行次数,单次旅行的损失平均给美国经济造成多大代价?
    5. How might the government’s loss of tax revenue negatively affect the travellers who choose to stay home and perhaps take a less expensive driving vacation closer to home?
      ::政府税收损失会如何对选择留在家中、或许在离家较近的地方度较便宜的驾驶假的旅行者产生不利影响?

    Business travel in the U.S. is responsible for $246 billion in spending and 2.3 million American jobs; $100 billion of this spending and 1 million American jobs are linked directly to meetings and events. For every dollar productively invested in business travel, businesses experience an average $12.50 in increased revenue and $3.80 in new profits. (Source:  )
    ::美国的商业旅行支出为2460亿美元,美国就业为230万个;其中1 000亿美元和100万个美国工作与会议和事件直接相关。 每一笔生产性地投资于商务旅行的美元中,商业收入平均增加12.50美元,新利润为3.80美元。 (资料来源: )

    1. What kinds of business would benefit from learning these statistics?
      ::了解这些统计数字会给哪些企业带来好处?
    2. Do these numbers mean that every business should spend money on business travel?
      ::这些数字是否意味着每个企业都应该花钱出差?
    3. Would these statistics be of interest to hotel owners?
      ::旅馆业主是否对这些统计数字感兴趣?

    The Hispanic/Latino  population in the U.S. is expected to reach 47.8 million by 2010, representing 16 percent of the total population. By 2050, the Hispanic/Latino population is projected to total 102.6 million, comprising 24 percent of the U.S. population. In 2007, there were an estimated 16.2 million Hispanic adult leisure travelers who took a combined 50.4 million domestic and outbound trips and spent $58.7 billion on their travels. (Source: Profile of Hispanic/Latino Leisure Travelers, 2008 Edition)
    ::在美国,西班牙裔/拉美裔人口预计到2010年将达到4,780万,占总人口的16%,到2050年,西班牙裔/拉美裔人口预计将达到1.026亿,占美国人口的24%,2007年,估计有1,620万西班牙裔成人休闲旅行者,共出国出国出国出国出国出国出国5,040万,花费了587亿美元。 (资料来源:西班牙裔/拉丁美洲休闲旅行者概况,2008年版)

    1. How might these statistics be of use to a travel agent?
      ::这些统计数字对旅行社有何用处?
    2. Would these statistics benefit a restaurant owner?
      ::这些统计数字是否有利于餐馆业主?
    3. How could the owner of a bed and breakfast inn make use of these statistics?
      ::床铺和早餐旅馆的老板如何利用这些统计数字?