章节大纲

  • In This Lesson
    ::在本课程中

    You will explore experimental probabilities and compare them to theoretical probabilities. Do you think they will always be the same? Why or why not?
    ::你将探索实验概率,并将它们与理论概率相比较。你认为它们总是一样吗?为什么或为什么不是?

     

    Coin Toss
    ::硬币 Tos

    Use the interactive to perform the experiment : flip a coin 10 times. Click on the coin in the interactive to simulate flipping it. The results will be recorded in the frequency table. Once you have completed the experiment (flipped the coin 10 times), look over your data. Then repeat the experiment two more times.
    ::使用交互操作来进行实验: 翻转一个硬币10次。 点击交互操作中的硬币来模拟翻转它。 结果将记录在频率表上。 一旦完成实验( 翻转硬币10次) , 请查看您的数据。 然后重复两次实验 。

    Do you get the expected (theoretical) outcome of 5 heads & 5 tails each time?
    ::您是否每次得到5个头和5个尾巴的预期结果( 理论) ?

     

    INTERACTIVE
    Coin Toss
    minimize icon
    • Click "Toggle Animation" checkbox to toggle the coin toss animation.
      ::单击“ 切换动画动画” 复选框以切换硬币的动画 。
    • Press "Toss 10 Coins" to flip 10 coins simultaneously.
      ::按10分硬币,同时翻10分硬币
    • Press "Toss coin" to simulate flipping a coin.
      ::按"掷硬币"来模拟翻硬币
    • Repeat this until all three trials are completed.
      ::重复这一点,直到所有三项审判都完成为止。
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    robability-of-independent-events" quiz-url="https://www.ck12.org/assessment/ui/embed.html?test/view/5f455f0683d488f6eb92dc56&collectionHandle=probability&collectionCreatorID=3&conceptCollectionHandle=probability-:吐舌头robability-of-independent-events&mode=lite" test-id="5f455f0683d488f6eb92dc56">
    Progress
    0 / 3
    1.

    Complete the interactive. Which statement is false?
    ::完成互动。 哪个声明是假的 ?

    a

    The theoretical probability is always equal to the experimental probability.
    ::理论概率总是等于实验概率。

    b

    The experimental probability is what happened when you flipped the coin.
    ::实验概率是你翻硬币时发生的事

    c

    The theoretical probability is what should have happened when you flipped the coin.
    ::理论上的概率是你翻硬币时应该发生的事情。

    d

    The theoretical probability is not always equal to the experimental probability.
    ::理论概率并不总是等于实验概率。

     

    Discussion Question
    ::讨论问题

    If you add up all 30 of your flips, will your result closer to 50-50? Why do you think that is? If you did 50 flips, what do you expect your results to look like as you do more flips? more questions about probabilities!
    ::如果你把翻转数加起来,你的结果会接近50到50吗?为什么你认为这是?如果你翻转了50个,你期望你的翻转结果会是什么样子?更多的关于概率的问题!

     

    In the next interactive, you will use a simulation to predict outcomes . A simulation is a model of an experiment . Often, models are used to estimate the results of an experiment  that would be difficult to actually perform (like 10,000 coin flips).
    ::在下一次互动中,您将使用模拟来预测结果。模拟是实验的模型。往往使用模型来估计实际难以执行的实验结果(如10,000个硬币翻转)。

     

    Spinner
    ::螺旋器

    Y our job is to  spin   a spinner and see where it lands. There are  six wedges, numbered 1 to 6.  The even numbers are blue and the odd numbers are orange . The challenge is that  y ou need to conduct the experiment 100 times! 
    ::您的工作是旋转一个旋转器, 并查看它降落的位置。 共有6个网点, 编号为 1 至 6 。 偶数是蓝色, 奇数是橙色 。 挑战在于您需要进行100 次实验 !

    Use  the interactive as a simulation of  this experiment. Click on the button "One S pin" to see the results of  spinning  the spinner once. Then, click on the " S imulation" button to get the results of 100 spins. 
    ::使用交互性模拟此实验。 点击“ 一个旋转” 按钮来查看旋转器旋转一次的结果。 然后单击“ 模拟” 按钮来获取 100 旋转的结果 。

     

    INTERACTIVE
    Spinner
    minimize icon
    • Click "One Spin" to simulate spinning the spinner once.
      ::点击“ 一个旋转” 模拟旋转旋转器一次 。
    • Click "Simulation"  to simulate spinning the spinner once 100 times.
      ::点击“ 模拟” 模拟旋转旋转100次 。
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    Please check your internet connection and try again.
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    robability-of-independent-events" quiz-url="https://www.ck12.org/assessment/ui/embed.html?test/view/5f455f16f3c0f2f115c7a67a&collectionHandle=probability&collectionCreatorID=3&conceptCollectionHandle=probability-:吐舌头robability-of-independent-events&mode=lite" test-id="5f455f16f3c0f2f115c7a67a">

     

       Summary
    ::摘要

    • Estimated probability is the number of times an outcome occurred over the total number of outcomes in an experiment.
      ::估计概率是实验结果总数的结果发生次数。
    • As the number of trials increase, the closer to the theoretical probability you get and the more accurate the experiment. 
      ::随着试验次数的增加, 实验的理论概率越接近, 实验的精确度就越高。
    • A simulation is a model of an experiment. Models are often created to estimate the results of experiments that would be difficult to actually perform. 
      ::模拟是实验的模型,通常建立模型来估计难以实际执行的实验结果。