16.1 人口变化
章节大纲
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Objectives
::目标目标目标和目标目标目标目标目标Explain the factors that affect the size and structure of populations and how sociologists measure these factors.
::解释影响人口规模和结构的因素,以及社会学家如何衡量这些因素。Explain how sociologists explain population change and describe the programs
::解释社会学家如何解释人口变化,that have been instituted to control population growth.
::为控制人口增长而建立的机构。
Universal Generalizations
::普遍化Changes in population have been dramatic and significantly changed the face of the world in a short amount of time.
::人口变化显著,在短时间内大大改变了世界的面貌。Population growth has affected the social world and the nature of human interaction.
::人口增长影响到社会世界和人类互动的性质。Guiding Questions
::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问What factors contribute to the growth or decline of a region?
::是什么因素促成一个区域的增长或下降?Why do demographers study world population change?
::为什么人口统计学家研究世界人口变化?Why are some countries populations falling?
::为什么一些国家的人口下降?What are some proposed theories used to explain population change?
::使用哪些理论来解释人口变化?Why are some countries using the strategy of family planning?
::为什么一些国家采用计划生育战略?
Population Change
::人口变化
Earth’s population, which recently grew to 7 billion, is always on the move.
::地球人口最近增加到70亿,但总是在流动。
We have commented that population change is an important source of other changes in society. The study of population is so significant that it occupies a special subfield within sociology called . To be more precise, demography is the study of changes in the size and composition of population. It encompasses several concepts: fertility and birth rates, mortality and death rates, and migration (Weeks, 2012). Weeks, J. R. (2012). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues (11th ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. Let’s look at each of these briefly.
::我们评论说,人口变化是社会其他变化的重要来源。对人口的研究意义重大,以至于它占据了社会学中所谓的特殊子领域。更确切地说,人口学是人口规模和组成变化的研究。它包含几个概念:生育率和出生率、死亡率和死亡率,以及移民(Weeks,2012年)。Weeks,J.R.(2012年)。人口:概念和问题的介绍(第11版)。Belmont,CA:Wadsworth。让我们简要审视其中的每一个概念。
We recently hit a population milestone of seven billion humans on the earth’s surface. The rapidity with which this happened demonstrated an exponential increase from the time it took to grow from five billion to six billion people. In short, the planet is filling up. How quickly will we go from seven billion to eight billion? How will that population be distributed? Where is population the highest? Where is it slowing down? Where will people live? To explore these questions, we turn to demography , or the study of populations. Three of the most important components affecting the issues above are fertility, mortality, and migration.
::我们最近到达了地球上70亿人口的人口里程碑。 发生这种情况的迅速速度表明从需要50亿人口增长到60亿人口的数量呈指数式增长。 简言之,地球正在填满。 我们从70亿人口增长到80亿的速度有多快? 人口将如何分配? 人口在何方最多? 人口在何方减缓? 人们将在哪里生活? 探索这些问题,我们转向人口统计或人口研究。 影响上述问题的三大因素是生育率、死亡率和移民。Fertility and Birth Rates
::生育率和出生率refers to the number of live births. Demographers use several measures of fertility. One measure is the , or the number of live births for every 1,000 people in a population in a given year. To determine the crude birth rate, the number of live births in a year is divided by the population size, and this result is then multiplied by 1,000. For example, in 2009 the United States had a population of about 307 million and roughly 4,136,000 births. Dividing the latter figure by the former figure gives us 0.0135 rounded off. We then multiply this quotient by 1,000 to yield a crude birth rate of 13.5 births per 1,000 population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
::例如,2009年,美国人口约3.07亿,约4,136,000人出生,而后一数字与前一数字相比,将0.0135人四舍五入。然后,我们将这一数值乘以1,000, 得出每1,000人的粗出生率(美国人口普查局,2010年)。美国人口普查局(2010年)。美国统计摘要:2010年,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局。Retrieved from . We call this a “crude” birth rate because the denominator, population size, consists of the total population, not just the number of women or even the number of women of childbearing age (commonly considered 15–44 years).
::我们将此称为 " 粗略 " 出生率,因为人口规模这一分母由总人口组成,而不仅仅是妇女人数,甚至育龄妇女人数(通常被视为15-44岁)。A second measure is the (also just called the fertility rate or birth rate ), or the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 (i.e., of childbearing age). This is calculated in a manner similar to that for the crude fertility rate, but in this case the number of births is divided by the number of women aged 15–44 before multiplying by 1,000. The U.S. general fertility rate for 2009 was about 65.5 (i.e., 65.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44; Tejada-Vera & Sutton, 2010). Tejada-Vera, B., & Sutton, P. D. (2010). Births, marriages, divorces, and deaths: Provisional data for 2009. National vital statistics reports, 58 (25), 1–6.
::第二个衡量标准是15-44岁妇女(即育龄妇女)每1 000名活产儿的生育率或出生率,或者每1 000名15-44岁妇女(即育龄妇女)的活产儿数量。 计算方法与粗生育率相似,但在此情况下,出生人数除以15-44岁妇女的人数,再乘以1 000。 2009年美国总生育率约为65.5(即每1 000名15-44岁妇女中有65.5个新生儿;Tejada-Vera和Sutton,2010年)。 Tejada-Vera,B.,Sutton,P.D.(2010年)。 出生、婚姻、离婚和死亡:2009年临时数据。 2009年,国家生命统计报告,58(25),1-6。A third measure is the , or the number of children an average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. This measure often appears in the news media and is more easily understood by the public than either of the first two measures. In 2008, the U.S. total fertility rate was about 2.09. Sometimes the total fertility rate is expressed as the average number of births that an average group of 1,000 women would be expected to have. In this case, the average number of children that one woman is expected to have is simply multiplied by 1,000. Using this latter calculation, the U.S. total fertility rate in 2008 was about 2,090 (i.e., an average group of 1,000 women would be expected to have, in their lifetimes, 2,090 children; Hamilton, Martin, & Ventura, 2010). Hamilton, B. E., Martin, J. A., & Ventura, S. J. (2010). Births: Preliminary data for 2008. National vital statistics reports, 58 (16), 1–18.
::第三个衡量标准是,妇女一生中平均生育的子女数或平均生育子女数。这一衡量标准通常出现在新闻媒体中,公众比前两个衡量标准中的任何一个更容易理解。2008年,美国总生育率约为2.09。有时,总生育率表现为平均1 000名妇女群体所预期生育的平均出生人数。在这种情况下,一名妇女所预期生育的子女平均人数只是乘以1 000。使用后一个计算方法,2008年美国总生育率约为2 090人(即平均1 000名妇女群体在其一生中有2 090名儿童;汉密尔顿、马丁和文图拉,2010年)。 Hamilton、B.E、Martin、J.A.和Ventura,S.J.(2010年)。 出生:2008年初步数据,全国生命统计报告,58(16),1-18。As indicates, the U.S. general fertility rate has changed a lot since 1920, dropping from 101 (per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in 1920 to 70 in 1935, during the Great Depression, before rising afterward until 1955. (Note the very sharp increase from 1945 to 1955, as the post–World War II baby boom began.) The fertility rate then fell steadily after 1960 until the 1970s but has remained rather steady since then, fluctuating only slightly between 65 and 70 per 1,000 women aged 15–44.
::如前所述,美国总生育率自1920年以来发生了很大变化,从1920年的101(每千名15-44岁妇女)下降到1935年的大萧条时期的70(每千名15-44岁妇女),直到1955年才开始上升。 (注意到1945年至1955年,随着第二次世界大战后婴儿潮的开始,生育率急剧上升。 )1960年后一直持续下降至1970年代,但自那时以来一直保持相当稳定,15-44岁妇女生育率仅略微波动在65-70之间。Figure 16.1 U.S. General Fertility Rate, 1920–2007
::图16.1 1920-2007年美国总生育率
Sources: Data from Hamilton, B. E., Martin, J. A., & Ventura, S. J. (2010). Births: Preliminary data for 2008. National vital statistics reports, 58 (16), 1–18; Martin, J. A., Hamilton, B. E., Sutton, P. D., Ventura, S. J., Menacker, F., Kirmeyer, S., & Mathews, T. J. (2009). Births: Final data for 2006. National vital statistics reports, 57 (7), 1–102; U.S. Census Bureau. (1951). Statistical abstract of the United States: 1951 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
::资料来源:来自汉密尔顿、B.E.、Martin、J.A.和Ventura、S.J.(2010年),《出生:2008年国家生命统计初步数据》,58(16),1-18;Martin、J.A.、Hamilton、B.E.、Sutton、P.D.、Ventura、S.J.、Menacker、F.、Kirmeyer、S.和Mathews、T.J.(2009年),《出生:2006年最后数据》,《2006年国家生命统计报告》,57(7)、1-102;美国人口普查局(1951年),美国统计摘要:1951年,华盛顿:美国政府印刷局。
Demographers use several measures of fertility. The general fertility rate refers to the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44. The U.S. general fertility rate is about 65.5.
::人口统计师采用几种生育率衡量方法。 总体生育率是指每1 000名15-44岁妇女的活产数。 美国总生育率约为65.5。© Thinkstock
::智商
The fertility rate varies by race and ethnicity. As shows, it is lowest for non-Latina white women and the highest for Latina women. Along with immigration, the high fertility rate of Latina women has fueled the large growth of the Latino population. Latinos now account for about 16% of the U.S. population, and their proportion is expected to reach more than 30% by 2050 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from
::如表所示,非拉丁美洲白人妇女生育率最低,拉丁美洲妇女生育率最高,而拉丁美洲妇女生育率最高,再加上移民,拉丁美洲妇女的高生育率刺激了拉丁美洲人口的大幅增长。 拉丁美洲人目前约占美国人口的16%,到2050年,其比例预计将超过30%(美国人口普查局,2010年),美国人口普查局(2010年),美国统计摘要:2010年,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局。Figure 16.2 Race, Ethnicity, and U.S. Fertility Rates, 2006
::图16.2 2006年种族、族裔和美国生育率
Source: Data from U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from .
::资料来源:美国人口普查局数据(2010年),《美国统计摘要:2010年》,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局。
The fertility rate of teenagers is a special concern because of their age. Although it is still a rate that most people wish were lower, it dropped steadily through the 1990s, before leveling off after 2002 and rising slightly afterward (see ). Although most experts attribute this drop to public education campaigns and increased contraception, the United States still has the highest rate of teenage pregnancy and fertility of any industrial nation (Eckholm, 2009). Eckholm, E. (2009, March
::青少年的生育率因其年龄而特别令人关切,尽管这一生育率仍然是大多数人希望的较低率,但在整个1990年代期间,生育率稳步下降,2002年以后趋于稳定,随后略有上升(见),尽管大多数专家将下降归因于公共教育运动和避孕措施的增加,但美国少女怀孕率和生育率仍然是任何工业国家中最高的(Eckholm,2009年),Eckholm,E.(2009年3月,2009年3月),Eckholm,E.(2009年3月,2009年3月)。18). ’07 U.S. births break baby boom record. The New York Times , p. A14. Teenage fertility again varies by race and ethnicity, with Latina teenagers having the highest fertility rates and Asian American teenagers the lowest (see ).
::《纽约时报》,第A14页。 青少年生育率因种族和族裔而异,拉丁美洲青少年生育率最高,亚裔美国人青少年生育率最低(见 ) 。Figure 16.3 U.S. Teenage Fertility Rate, 1990–2006
::图16.3 1990-2006年美国青少年生育率
Source: Data from Martin, J. A., Hamilton, B. E., Sutton, P. D., Ventura, S. J., Menacker, F., Kirmeyer, S., & Mathews, T. J. (2009). Births: Final data for 2006. National vital statistics reports, 57 (7), 1–102.
::资料来源:Martin, J. A., Hamilton, B. E., Sutton, P. D., Ventura, S. J., Menacker, F., Kirmeyer, S., & Mathews, T. J. (2009年)。 出生:2006年最后数据,国家生命统计报告,57(7), 1 - 102。Figure 16.4 Race, Ethnicity, and U.S. Teenage Fertility Rates, 2007
::图16.4 2007年种族、族裔和美国青少年生育率
Source: Data from U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from .
::资料来源:美国人口普查局数据(2010年),《美国统计摘要:2010年》,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局。
Fertility rates also differ around the world and are especially high in poor nations (see ). Demographers identify several reasons for these high rates (Weeks, 2012). Weeks, J. R. (2012). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues (11th ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
::人口:概念和问题的导言(第11版),Belmont, CA:Wadsworth。
Figure 16.5 Crude Birth Rates Around the World, 2008 (Number of Births per 1,000 Population)
::图16.5 2008年全世界粗粗出生率(每千人口出生率)
Source: Adapted from .
::资料来源:改编自:
First, poor nations are usually agricultural ones. In agricultural societies, children are an important economic resource, as a family will be more productive if it has more children. This means that families will ordinarily try to have as many children as possible. Second, infant and child mortality rates are high in these nations. Because parents realize that one or more of their children may die before adulthood, they have more children to “make up” for the anticipated deaths. A third reason is that many parents in low-income nations prefer sons to daughters, and, if a daughter is born, they “try again” for a son. Fourth, traditional gender roles are often very strong in poor nations, and these roles include the belief that women should be wives and mothers above all. With this ideology in place, it is not surprising that women will have several children. Finally, contraception is uncommon in poor nations. Without contraception, many more pregnancies and births certainly occur. For all of these reasons, then, fertility is much higher in poor nations than in rich nations.
::首先,贫穷国家通常是农业国家。在农业社会,儿童是一个重要的经济资源,因为如果家庭拥有更多子女,家庭就会更有生产力。这意味着家庭通常会尽量多生孩子。第二,这些国家的婴儿和儿童死亡率很高。因为父母认识到自己的一个或一个以上子女可能在成年前死亡,所以他们有更多的子女来“弥补”预期的死亡。第三个原因是,许多低收入国家的父母更喜欢儿子而不是女儿,如果女儿出生,他们就会“再次”为儿子“尝试”。第四,传统的性别角色在贫穷国家往往非常强大,这些角色包括妇女应该成为妻子和母亲的信念。有了这种思想,妇女会有几个孩子并不奇怪。最后,在贫穷国家避孕是罕见的。没有避孕,怀孕和生育肯定会更多。因此,由于所有这些原因,贫穷国家的生育率要比富国高得多。
Poor nations have higher birth rates for several reasons. One reason is the agricultural economies typical of these nations. In these economies, children are an important economic resource, and families will ordinarily try to have as many children as possible.
::贫穷国家出生率较高有几个原因,其中一个原因是这些国家典型的农业经济。 在这些经济国家中,儿童是重要的经济资源,家庭通常会尽量多生孩子。Source: Photo courtesy of R. Kalden, Voice of America, .
::资料来源:美国之音R. Kalden的图片。Population Growth
::人口增长Changing fertility, mortality, and migration rates make up the total population composition , a snapshot of the demographic profile of a population. This number can be measured for societies, nations, world regions, or other groups. The population composition includes the sex ratio (the number of men for every hundred women) as well as the population pyramid (a picture of population distribution by sex and age).
::生育率、死亡率和移徙率的变化构成人口组成总数,是人口人口概况的缩影,可以按社会、国家、世界区域或其他群体衡量这一数目,人口组成包括性别比(每100名妇女中男性人数)和人口金字塔(按性别和年龄分列的人口分布图)。
This population pyramid shows the breakdown of the 2010 American population according to age and sex. (Graph courtesy of Econ Proph blog and the U.S. Census Bureau
::该人口金字塔显示了2010年按年龄和性别分列的美国人口分布情况(Econ Proph博客和美国人口普查局提供的Graph)。Varying Fertility and Mortality Rate by Country
::按国家分列的不同生育率和死亡率Country Population (in millions) Fertility Rate Mortality Rate Sex Ratio Male to Female Afghanistan 29.8 5.4% 17.4% 1.05 Sweden 9.1 1.7% 10.2% 0.98 United States of America 313.2 2.1% 8.4% 0.97 As the chart illustrates, countries vary greatly in fertility and mortality rates- the components that make up population composition. (Chart courtesy of CIA World Facebook 2011)
::如图表所示,各国的生育率和死亡率差异很大,而生育率和死亡率是构成人口构成的组成部分。 (CCIA World Face,2011年)。
Comparing these three countries reveals that there are more men than women in Afghanistan, whereas the reverse is true in Sweden and the United States. Afghanistan also has significantly higher fertility and mortality rates than either of the other two countries. Do these statistics surprise you? How do you think the population makeup impacts the political climate and economics of the different countries?
::比较这三个国家后发现,阿富汗的男性比女性多,而瑞典和美国的情况正好相反。 阿富汗的生育率和死亡率也大大高于其他两个国家。 这些统计数字令你吃惊吗? 你认为人口构成如何影响不同国家的政治气候和经济?
Mortality and Death Rates
::死亡率和死亡率is the flip side of fertility and refers to the number of deaths. Demographers measure it with the , the number of deaths for every 1,000 people in a population in a given year. To determine the crude death rate, the number of deaths is divided by the population size, and this result is then multiplied by 1,000. In 2006 the United States had slightly more than 2.4 million deaths for a crude death rate of 8.1 deaths for every 1,000 persons. We call this a “crude” death rate because the denominator, population size, consists of the total population and does not take its age distribution into account. All things equal, a society with a higher proportion of older people should have a higher crude death rate. Demographers often calculate age - adjusted death rates that adjust for a population’s age distribution. When analyzed together, fertility and mortality rates help researchers understand the overall growth occurring in a population.
::人口统计学家用特定年份每1 000人中每1 000人的死亡率来衡量这一死亡率。为了确定粗死亡率,死亡人数除以人口规模,然后再乘以1 000。 2006年,美国粗死亡率为每1 000人中8.1人死亡,死亡人数略高于240万。 我们称这一死亡率为“粗死亡率 ” , 因为分母、人口规模、人口总数和年龄分布都包含在总人口中,而不考虑其年龄分布。所有情况都一样,一个老年人比例较高的社会应该拥有较高的粗死亡率。 测量师常常计算按年龄调整的死亡率,以适应人口年龄分布。 综合分析,生育率和死亡率有助于研究人员了解人口的总体增长情况。
Migration
::移徙移徙移徙Another demographic concept is , the movement of people into and out of specific regions. Since the dawn of human history, people have migrated in search of a better life, and many have been forced to migrate by ethnic conflict or the slave trade.
::另一个人口概念是人口进出特定地区,自人类历史开始以来,人们为寻求更好的生活而移徙,许多人因种族冲突或奴隶贸易而被迫移徙。Several classifications of migration exist. When people move into a region, we call it in-migration , or immigration ; when they move out of a region, we call it out-migration , or emigration . The in-migration rate is the number of people moving into a region for every 1,000 people in the region, while the out-migration rate is the number of people moving from the region for every 1,000 people. The difference between the two is the net migration rate (in-migration minus out-migration). Recalling the news story about Michigan that began this chapter, Michigan has had a net migration of less than zero, as its out-migration has been greater than its in-migration.
::存在几种移徙分类。当人们迁移到一个区域时,我们称之为移民或移民;当他们迁出一个区域时,我们称之为移民或移民。移民率是该地区每1 000人中迁入一个区域的人数,而移民率是每1 000人中迁出的人数。两者之间的差别是净移民率(移民迁出后迁出)。回顾一开始的密歇根州新闻,密歇根净移民人数少于零,因为移民人数多于移民人数。Migration can also be either domestic or international in scope. Domestic migration happens within a country’s national borders, as when retired people from the northeastern United States move to Florida or the Southwest. International migration happens across national borders. When international immigration is heavy, as it has been into the United States and Western Europe in the last few decades, the effect on population growth and other aspects of national life can be significant. Domestic migration can also have a large impact. The great migration of African Americans from the South into northern cities during the first half of the 20th century changed many aspects of those cities’ lives (Berlin, 2010). Berlin, I. (2010). The making of African America: The four great migrations . New York, NY: Viking. Meanwhile, the movement during the past few decades of northerners into the South and Southwest also had quite an impact: the housing market initially exploded, for example, and traffic increased.
::国内移民也可以是国内移民,也可以是国际移民。 国内移民发生在一个国家的国界之内,比如美国东北部的退休者移居佛罗里达或西南部。 国际移徙发生跨国边界。 当国际移民十分繁忙时,就像过去几十年进入美国和西欧那样,对人口增长和国家生活的其他方面的影响也相当大。 国内移民也可以产生巨大影响。 20世纪上半叶,非洲裔美国人从南方大量移民到北部城市,改变了这些城市生活的许多方面(柏林,2010年)。 柏林,I. (2010年)。 非洲美洲的造型:四大移民。 纽约:维京。 与此同时,过去几十年中北方人进入南部和西南部的移动也产生了相当大的影响:例如,住房市场最初爆发,交通增加。
Explaining Population Growth
::解释人口增长Demographers use their knowledge of fertility, mortality, and migration trends to make projections about population growth and decline several decades into the future. Coupled with our knowledge of past population sizes, these projections allow us to understand population trends over many generations. One clear pattern emerges from the study of population growth. When a society is small, population growth is slow because there are relatively few adults to procreate. But as the number of people grows over time, so does the number of adults. More and more procreation thus occurs every single generation, and population growth then soars in a virtual explosion.
::人口学家利用他们对生育率、死亡率和移徙趋势的知识,对人口增长和今后数十年的下降作出预测。这些预测结合我们对过去人口规模的了解,使我们得以了解许多代的人口趋势。人口增长研究中出现的一个明显模式是:当社会规模小时,人口增长缓慢,因为生育成人相对较少。但随着时间的增长,成年人的数量也随之增加。因此,生育数量逐代增加,每一代人都有越来越多的生育,人口增长随后在虚拟爆炸中猛增。We saw evidence of this pattern when we looked at world population growth. When agricultural societies developed some 12,000 years ago, only about 8 million people occupied the planet. This number had reached about 300 million about 2,100 years ago, and by the 15th century it was still only about 500 million. It finally reached 1 billion by about 1850 and by 1950, only a century later, had doubled to 2 billion. Just 50 years later, it tripled to more than 6.8 billion, and it is projected to reach more than 9 billion by 2050 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010) U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from (see ).
::当我们观察世界人口增长时,我们看到了这种模式的证据。当农业社会在大约12 000年前发展起来时,只有大约800万人占据了地球。这个数字在大约2 100年前达到大约3亿,到15世纪时仍然只有大约5亿。最后,到1850年和1950年,仅仅一个世纪之后,它达到10亿,已经翻了一番,达到20亿。 仅仅50年后,它又增加了两倍,超过68亿,预计到2050年将达到90亿(美国人口普查局,2010年),美国人口普查局(2010年)统计摘要:2010年,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局,检索(见)。
Figure Total World Population, 1950–2050
::1950-2050年世界人口总数
Source: Data from U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2010 . Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from
::资料来源:美国人口普查局数据(2010年),《美国统计摘要:2010年》,华盛顿特区:美国政府印刷局。International Annual Population Growth Rates (%), 2005–2010
::2005-2010年国际人口年增长率(%)
Source: Adapted from
::资料来源:改编自Malthusian Theory
::马尔图斯理论Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) was an English clergyman who made dire predictions about earth’s ability to sustain its growing population. According to Malthusian theory , three factors would control human population that exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity , or how many people can live in a given area considering the amount of available resources. He identified these factors as war, famine, and disease (Malthus 1798). He termed these “positive checks” because they increased mortality rates, thus keeping the population in check, so to speak. These are countered by “preventative checks,” which also seek to control the population, but by reducing fertility rates; preventive checks include birth control and celibacy. Thinking practically, Malthus saw that people could only produce so much food in a given year, yet the population was increasing at an exponential rate. Eventually, he thought people would run out of food and begin to starve. They would go to war over the increasingly scarce resources, reduce the population to a manageable level, and the cycle would begin anew.
::托马斯·马尔特斯(Thomas Malthus ) (1766-1834 )是一位英国牧师,他对地球维持人口增长的能力做出了可怕的预测。 根据马尔图西亚理论,三个因素将控制超过地球承载能力的人类人口,或者有多少人可以生活在一个特定地区,考虑到可利用的资源数量。 他将这些因素确定为战争、饥荒和疾病(Malthus 1798 ) 。 他将这些“积极检查”称为“积极检查 ” , 因为它们提高了死亡率,从而让人口保持戒备状态。 这些被“预防性检查”所抵消,“预防性检查”也试图控制人口,但降低生育率;预防性检查包括节育和节育。 实际上,马尔图斯认为人们在特定年份只能生产如此多的粮食,但人口正在以指数增长的速度增长。 最后,他认为人们会因食物短缺而开始挨饿。 他们将争夺日益稀少的资源,将人口降低到可以控制的水平,而周期将重新开始。Of course, this has not exactly happened. The human population has continued to grow long past Malthus’s predictions. So what happened? Why didn’t we die off? There are three reasons that sociologists suggest we continue to expand the population of our planet. First, technological increases in food production have increased both the amount and quality of calories we can produce per person. Second, human ingenuity has developed new medicine to curtail death through disease. Finally, the development and widespread use of contraception and other forms of family planning have decreased the speed at which our population increases. But what about the future? Some still believe that Malthus was correct and that ample resources to support the earth’s population will soon run out.
::当然,这并没有完全发生。人类人口在马尔萨斯预测的预测中持续增长。结果如何?为什么我们没有消亡?社会学家认为我们将继续扩大我们星球的人口数量有三个原因。 首先,粮食生产的技术增长增加了我们每人生产的卡路里的数量和质量。 其次,人类的智慧已经开发出通过疾病减少死亡的新药。 最后,避孕和其他形式的计划生育的发展和广泛使用已经降低了我们人口增加的速度。 但是,关于未来,人们仍然相信马尔萨斯是正确的,支持地球人口的充足资源也将很快用完。
Thomas Malthus, an English economist who lived about 200 years ago, wrote that population increases geometrically while food production increases only arithmetically. These understandings led him to predict mass starvation.
::英国经济学家托马斯·马尔修斯(Thomas Malthus)大约200年前就曾生活过,他写道,人口以几何方式增长,而粮食生产仅以计算方式增长。 这些理解使他预测了大规模饥饿。Source: .
::资料来源:Zero Population Growth
::零人口增长A neo-Malthusian researcher named Paul Ehrlich brought Malthus’s predictions into the 20th century. However, according to Ehrlich, it is the environment, not specifically the food supply, that will play a crucial role in the continued health of planet’s population (Ehrlich 1968). His ideas suggest that the human population is moving rapidly toward complete environmental collapse, as privileged people use up or pollute a number of environmental resources, such as water and air. He advocated for a goal of zero population growth (ZPG), in which the number of people entering a population through birth or immigration is equal to the number of people leaving it via death or emigration. While support for this concept is mixed, it is still considered a possible solution to global overpopulation.
::新马尔图斯研究者保罗·埃尔利希(Paul Ehrlich)将马尔图斯的预测带到20世纪。 但是,根据埃尔利什(Ehrlich)的说法,环境,而不是食品供应,将在地球上人口的持续健康中发挥关键作用(1968年,埃尔利什 ) 。 他的想法表明,人类人口正在迅速走向彻底环境崩溃,因为特权人民正在利用或污染水和空气等一系列环境资源。 他主张实现人口零增长的目标,通过出生或移民进入人口的人数与通过死亡或移民离开人口的人数相等。 虽然对这一概念的支持是混合的,但人们仍然认为它可能解决全球人口过剩问题。
Demographic Transition Theory
::人口结构过渡理论Whether you believe that we are headed for environmental disaster and the end of human existence as we know it, or you think people will always adapt to changing circumstances, there are clear patterns that can be seen in population growth. Societies develop along a predictable continuum as they evolve from unindustrialized to postindustrial. Demographic transition theory (Caldwell and Caldwell 2006) suggests that future population growth will develop along a predictable four-stage model.
::无论你认为我们注定要面对环境灾难和人类生存的终结,还是你认为人们总是会适应不断变化的环境,在人口增长中可以看到明显的模式。 随着社会从非工业化向后工业化的演变,社会将沿着一个可预测的连续体发展。 人口转型理论(Caldwell和Caldwell,2006年)表明,未来的人口增长将沿着一个可预测的四阶段模式发展。In Stage 1, birth, death, and infant mortality rates are all high, while life expectancy is short. An example of this stage is 1800s America. As countries begin to industrialize, they enter Stage 2, where birthrates are higher while infant mortality and the death rates drop. Life expectancy also increases. Afghanistan is currently in this stage. Stage 3 occurs once a society is thoroughly industrialized; birthrates decline, while life expectancy continues to increase. Death rates continue to decrease. Mexico’s population is at this stage. In the final phase, Stage 4, we see the postindustrial era of a society. Birth and death rates are low, people are healthier and live longer, and society enters a phase of population stability. Overall population may even decline. Sweden and the United States are considered Stage 4.
::在第一阶段,出生、死亡和婴儿死亡率都很高,而预期寿命却很短。这个阶段的一个例子是美国。当各国开始工业化时,它们进入了第二阶段,即出生率较高,婴儿死亡率和死亡率下降。预期寿命也在增加。阿富汗目前处于这一阶段。第三阶段,社会彻底工业化之后就开始;出生率下降,而预期寿命继续提高。死亡率继续下降。墨西哥人口处于这一阶段。在最后阶段,第四阶段,我们看到一个社会的后工业化时代。出生和死亡率较低,人更健康,寿命更长,社会进入人口稳定的阶段。总体人口甚至可能下降。瑞典和美国被视为第四阶段。瑞典和美国被认为是第四阶段。
This theory links population growth to the level of technological development across three stages of social evolution. In the first stage, coinciding with preindustrial societies, the birth rate and death rate are both high. The birth rate is high because of the lack of contraception and the several other reasons cited earlier for high fertility rates, and the death rate is high because of disease, poor nutrition, lack of modern medicine, and other problems. These two high rates cancel each other out, and little population growth occurs.
::这一理论将人口增长与社会演变的三个阶段的技术发展水平联系起来,在第一阶段,与工业化前的社会同时,出生率和死亡率都很高,因为缺乏避孕手段和前面提到的高生育率的其他原因,出生率很高,而由于疾病、营养不良、缺乏现代医学和其他问题,死亡率也很高。 这两个高比率相互抵消,人口增长很少。In the second stage, coinciding with the development of industrial societies, the birth rate remains fairly high, owing to the lack of contraception and a continuing belief in the value of large families, but the death rate drops because of several factors, including increased food production, better sanitation, and improved medicine. Because the birth rate remains high but the death rate drops, population growth takes off dramatically.
::在第二阶段,与工业社会发展同时发生的是,由于缺少避孕手段和对大家庭价值的持续信念,出生率仍然相当高,但死亡率却由于若干因素而下降,包括食品生产增加、卫生条件改善和药品改善。 由于出生率仍然很高,但死亡率却下降,人口增长急剧下降。In the third stage, the death rate remains low, but the birth rate finally drops as families begin to realize that large numbers of children in an industrial economy are more of a burden than an asset. Another reason for the drop is the availability of effective contraception. As a result, population growth slows, and, as we saw earlier, it has become quite low or even gone into a decline in several industrial nations.
::在第三阶段,死亡率仍然很低,但随着家庭开始认识到工业经济中大量儿童的负担大于资产,出生率最终下降。 降低的另一个原因是有效避孕手段的供应。 结果,人口增长放缓,而且正如我们早些时候所看到的那样,在一些工业国家,人口增长已经非常低,甚至已经下降。Demographic transition theory, then, gives us more reason to be cautiously optimistic regarding the threat of overpopulation: as poor nations continue to modernize—much as industrial nations did 200 years ago—their population growth rates should start to decline. Still, population growth rates in poor nations continue to be high, and, as the “Sociology Making a Difference” box discussed, inequalities in food distribution allow rampant hunger to persist. Hundreds of thousands of women die in poor nations each year during pregnancy and childbirth. Reduced fertility would save their lives, in part because their bodies would be healthier if their pregnancies were spaced farther apart (Schultz, 2008). Schultz, T. P. (2008). Population policies, fertility, women’s human capital, and child quality. In T. P. Schultz & J. Strauss (Eds.), Handbook of development economics (Vol. 4, pp. 3249–3303). Amsterdam, Netherlands: North-Holland, Elsevier. Although world population growth is slowing, then, it is still growing too rapidly in much of the developing and least developed worlds. To reduce it further, more extensive family-planning programs are needed, as is economic development in general.
::因此,人口过渡理论使我们更有理由对人口过剩的威胁持谨慎的乐观态度:贫穷国家继续现代化 — — 正如工业国家200年前所做的那样 — — 其人口增长率应该开始下降。 尽管如此,贫穷国家的人口增长率仍然居高不下,而且正如讨论的“社会改变社会”方框所述,粮食分配的不平等使得饥饿现象持续不已。 每年有数十万妇女在贫穷国家怀孕和分娩期间死亡。 降低生育率将挽救她们的生命,部分原因是如果怀孕间隔更远,她们的身体会更加健康(Schultz,2008年),Schultz,T.P.(2008年)。人口政策、生育率、妇女人力资本和儿童素质。在T.P.Schultz和J.Strauss(Eds)中,《发展经济学手册》(Vol. 4,第3249-3303页),荷兰阿姆斯特丹:北霍兰德,Elsevier。尽管世界人口增长速度正在放缓,但是在大多数发展中和最不发达世界中仍然增长过快。为了进一步减少,需要更广泛的家庭规划。
Population Decline and Pronatalism
::人口下降和产前检查
::降低对人口增长关注的另一个原因是许多工业国的出生率大幅放缓。 有些国家甚至正在经历人口下降,而预计到2050年人口将下降(Goldstein, Sobotka, & Jasilioniene, 2009 ) 。 Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., & Jasilaniene, A. (2009 ) , “最低”生育率的结束?《人口与发展评论》,35(4), 663-699. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x ) 。 一个国家要维持其人口,妇女平均需要2.1个孩子,人口稳定所需的位置水平远远低于这一水平。 但包括美国在内的几个工业国,节育率的提高是其生育率较低的原因之一,但妇女决定延长在校时间,在学业结束后立即工作,直到后来才生育第一个孩子。
::具有讽刺意味的是,这些国家的人口下降已经开始引起人口学家和决策者的关注(Shorto, 2008, Shoto, R., R., R., 2008, 6月 ) 。 没有婴儿?纽约时报杂志。从许多工业国家的人活得更长,而出生率却在下降。 这些国家的老年人比例越来越高,年轻人比例也越来越小。 在几个欧洲国家,61岁或以上的人比19岁或更年轻。 随着这一趋势的继续,照顾如此众多老年人的健康和收入需求将变得越来越困难,而且可能只有太少的年轻人来填补许多工作,提供工业社会所需要的许多服务。 劳动力的减少还可能意味着政府提供这些服务的所得税将减少。
Spain is one of several European nations that have been experiencing a population decline because of lower birth rates. Like some other nations, Spain has adopted pronatalist policies to encourage people to have more children; it provides 2,500 euros, about $3,400, for each child.
::西班牙是因出生率下降而出现人口下降的几个欧洲国家之一。 与其他一些国家一样,西班牙采取了产前政策鼓励人们生育更多子女;它为每个儿童提供了2 500欧元,约为3 400美元。Source: Photo courtesy of Sergi Larripa, .
::照片来自Sergi Larripa,
::为了解决这些问题,若干国家政府启动了旨在鼓励妇女生育更多孩子的政策,特别是提供慷慨的育儿补贴、税收奖励和灵活的工作时间表,以方便生育和抚养子女,有些国家甚至向有额外孩子的夫妇提供直接现金支付。 在某些情况下,俄罗斯为每个孩子提供大约9 000美元,超过第一个孩子,而西班牙为每个孩子提供2 500欧元(相当于约3 400美元)(Haub,2009年),Haub,C.(2009年)。 在一些低出生率国家,出生率上升。 华盛顿特区:人口参考局。Current Population Trends
::当前人口趋势The earth’s population is seven billion. That number might not seem particularly jarring on its own; after all, we all know there are lots of people around. But consider the fact that human population grew very slowly for most of our existence, then doubled in the span of half a century to reach six billion in 1999. And now, just over ten years later, we have added another billion. A look at the graph of projected population indicates that growth is not only going to continue, but it will continue at a rapid rate.
::地球人口为70亿。 这个数字本身可能看起来并不特别可怕;毕竟,我们都知道周围有很多人。 但是,考虑到人类人口增长缓慢,在我们生存的大部分时间里,人口增长非常缓慢,然后在半个世纪里翻了一番,到1999年达到60亿。 而现在,仅仅在10年之后,我们又增加了10亿。 看一下预测人口图表明,增长不仅会继续下去,而且会以快速的速度继续下去。The United Nations Population Fund (2008) categorizes nations as high fertility, intermediate fertility, or low fertility. They anticipate the population growth to triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the U.S., India, and Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent. And low-fertility countries like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population declines of approximately 20 percent. The graphs below illustrate this trend.
::联合国人口基金(2008年)将国家分类为高生育率、中等生育率或低生育率。它们预计2011年至2100年间高生育率国家人口增长将增加三倍,这些国家目前集中在撒哈拉以南非洲。 对于中等生育率国家(美国、印度和墨西哥都属于这一类别),增长率预计约为26%。 而中国、澳大利亚和大多数欧洲低生育率国家将实际出现约20%的人口下降。 下面的图表说明了这一趋势。
Projected Population in Africa
This graph shows the population growth of countries located on the African continent, many of which have high fertility rates. (Graph courtesy of USAID)
::本图显示非洲大陆各国的人口增长率,其中许多国家的生育率很高。 (美援署提供格子)
Projected Population in the United States
The United States has an intermediate fertility rate, and therefore, a comparatively moderate projected population growth. (Graph courtesy of USAID)
::美国的生育率居中,因此预计人口增长相对温和。 (美援署提供格子)
Projected Population in Europe
This chart shows the projected population growth of Europe for the remainder of this century. (Graph courtesy of USAID)
::本图显示本世纪余下时间欧洲的预计人口增长情况。 (美援署赠送的格子)
It would be impossible to discuss population growth and trends without addressing access to family planning resources and birth control. As the stages of population growth indicate, more industrialized countries see birthrates decline as families limit the number of children they have. Today, many people—over 200 million—still lack access to safe family planning, according to USAID (2010). By their report, this need is growing, with demand projected to increase by 40 percent in the next 15 years. Many social scholars would assert that until women are able to have only the children they want and can care for, the poorest countries will always bear the worst burden of overpopulation.
::正如人口增长阶段所示,随着家庭限制子女数量,更多的工业化国家看到出生率下降,因为家庭限制了子女数量,如今,据美国国际开发署(2010年)称,许多人——超过2亿——仍然无法获得安全的计划生育,根据他们的报告,这种需求正在增加,预计今后15年的需求将增加40%,许多社会学者将断言,除非妇女能够拥有她们想要和能够照顾的子女,否则最贫穷的国家将永远承受人口过剩的最沉重负担。