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  • 连接:有多少人太多?

    Population growth of animals—including humans–can often be modeled exponentially. Due to advances in medicine and technology, the world population has grown quite rapidly in the last two centuries. 
    ::动物 — — 包括人类 — — 的人口增长往往可以成倍地模拟。 由于医学和技术的进步,世界人口在过去两个世纪中快速增长。

    For some perspective, it took 200,000 years for the world population to reach 1 billion people, and about 200 more years for the world population to increase to 7 billion people 1 . 
    ::从某种角度来看,世界人口需要20万年才能达到10亿,世界人口需要大约200年才能增加到70亿1。

    lesson content

     

    Below is a table of world population at certain points in time 1 . 
    ::下面是某一时间点的世界人口表1。

    Year World Population  (in billions)
    1950 2.521
    1999 6.008
    2012 7,052

    1. Use the data from 1950 and 2012 to write an exponential model of world population growth. We will call this Model 1. 
    ::1. 利用1950年和2012年的数据,编写世界人口指数增长模型,我们称其为模式1。

    2. Use the data from 1999 and 2012 to write an exponential model of world population growth. We will call this Model 2. 
    ::2. 利用1999年和2012年的数据来编写世界人口指数增长模型,我们称之为模式2。

    3. Using both of your models, predict the population in 2100.
    ::3. 利用两种模型预测2100年的人口。

    4. Why is there a difference? Which model do you think will make a more accurate prediction? Why? Explain your reasoning. 
    ::4. 为什么有区别?你认为哪一种模型能作出更准确的预测?为什么?解释一下你的推理。

    Some economists, ecologists, and other scholars have concerns about the impact of the growing population on food and resources. For the extreme values, this is known in biology as the "carrying capacity" of a species—the maximum population size that is sustainable, given a limited number of resources like food, water, and living space. Let's consider the last resource listed, living space 2 .
    ::一些经济学家、生态学家和其他学者对人口增长对粮食和资源的影响感到担忧。 对于极端的价值观,生物界称之为物种的“承载能力 ” — —考虑到食物、水和生活空间等有限资源,最大人口规模是可持续的。让我们来考虑最后列出的资源,即生活空间2。

    5. Let's assume the Earth is a perfect sphere 3 . It has a radius of 3,959 miles. Find the length of the Earth's radius in feet.
    ::5. 假设地球是一个完美的球体3 半径为3,959英里,以足为单位查找地球半径的长度。

    6. Find the surface area of the Earth in square feet (assuming it is a perfect sphere).
    ::6. 以平方英尺(假设是完美的球)确定地球的表面积。

    7. A total of 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by water, and the remaining 30% is covered by land 3 . Of that land, only 43% is habitable. Find the area of habitable land on the surface of the Earth. 
    ::7. 地球表面共有70%的水覆盖,其余30%的土地覆盖。 其中只有43%的土地可以居住。在地球表面找到可居住土地的面积。

    8. If each person had 100 square feet of habitable land (a 10-foot by 10-foot square), how many people could the Earth support?
    ::8. 如果每人拥有100平方英尺可居住土地(10英尺乘10英尺平方英尺),地球能支持多少人?

    9. According to your models, in what years would the world population reach the number in Question 8?  
    ::9. 根据你的模式,世界人口在几年内将达到问题8中的数字?

    by the American Museum of Natural History shows the growth of human population over time. 
    ::美国自然历史博物馆的《美国自然历史博物馆》显示,随着时间推移,人类人口增长。

     

    References
    ::参考参考资料

    1. "World Population," last edited May 27, 2017,
    ::1. “世界人口”, 2017年5月27日最后一次编辑,

    2. "Carrying Capacity," last edited May 31, 2017,
    ::2. “运输能力”, 2017年5月31日最后一次编辑,

    3. "Earth," last edited May 30, 2017,
    ::3. "地球", 上次编辑 2017年5月30日, 2017年5月30日,