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  • 使用模拟来估计简单事件的概率

    In This Lesson
    ::在本课程中

    Y ou will learn how to make your own simulation for an event . In  previous  lessons, t he results of a simulation (like the "What's my Card?" interactive from the lesson) were used to analyze experimental vs. theoretical probability . Here, you will create your own simulation and draw conclusions.
    ::您将学习如何为事件模拟自己。 在以往的课程中, 模拟的结果( 比如“ 我的牌是什么 ? ” ? ) 被用于分析实验和理论概率。 在这里, 您将创建自己的模拟和得出结论 。

    To create a simulation, follow these steps.
    ::为了创造模拟,请遵循这些步骤。

    1. Define  what event you want to simulate.
      ::定义您想要模拟的事件 。
    2. Describe the possible outcomes . This list will be the basis for your simulation.
      ::描述可能的结果。 此列表将作为模拟的基础 。
    3. Link each outcome to one or more random numbers. For example, if there are 4 outcomes, each one should be labeled with a number 1 through 4.
      ::将每个结果与一个或多个随机数字联系起来,例如,如果有4个结果,则每个结果应贴上1至4号标签。
    4. Choose a source of random numbers. Y ou  can use a coin for  two outcomes, a die for 6 or fewer outcomes, cards, or even a graphing calculator.
      ::选择随机数字的来源。您可以使用硬币来获取两个结果、6个或更少的结果、卡片甚至图形化计算器。
    5. Begin your simulation. Each trial is simulated by a randomly selected number (coin flip, die roll, draw a card, etc).  Repeat several times.
      ::开始模拟。 每次试验都用随机选择的数字模拟( 硬币翻转、 死滚滚、 画一张卡片等) 。 重复几次 。
    6. Once you are done with the simulation, use the list from step 3 to determine  the outcome  that the most likely and find the experimental probabilities .
      ::一旦模拟完成后,请使用第3步中的列表来确定最可能的结果,并找到实验概率。

     

    Can We Go to the Beach?
    ::我们可以去海滩吗?

    Sherry really wants to go to the beach. Her mom says, "I'm not sure; let me think about it." From Sherry's point of view, she has a 50-50 chance of her mom saying  "Yes" or "No" . Perform a simulation of 50 trials to determine the likelihood of Sherry going to the beach.
    ::雪莉真的想去海滩。她妈妈说,“我不知道,让我想想吧。”从雪莉的角度看,她有50到50个机会说“是”或“否”。进行50次试验的模拟,以确定雪莉去海滩的可能性。

    Start by answer the inline questions below. They will help you answer the first four steps of generating  a simulation.
    ::以回答下面的内线问题开始。 他们会帮助您回答生成模拟的前四个步骤 。

     

     

    Now that you've designed  the simulation, use the interactive to run it . Click on the coin to randomly generate heads or tails, which represent the two different outcomes. As you click on the coin , the interactive will keep track of the results. Repeat this until you have 50 trials.  Then answer the questions below the interactive.
    ::既然您已经设计了模拟, 请使用交互操作来运行它。 单击硬币可以随机生成头或尾, 代表两个不同的结果。 当您单击硬币时, 交互操作将记录结果。 重复此操作直到您有 50 个试验。 然后回答交互操作下面的问题 。

    Note that your classmates  may  get different results than you because this is a random experiment .
    ::请注意,你的同学可能会得到 与你不同的结果 因为这是一个随机的实验。

     

    INTERACTIVE
    Flipping a Coin
    minimize icon
    • Click on the coin to flip it.
      ::点击硬币来翻转它。
    • If it is tails, a red dot will appear. If it is heads, then a blue dot will appear. 
      ::如果是尾巴,红色点就会出现。如果是头,那么蓝色点就会出现。
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    robability-of-compound-events" quiz-url="https://www.ck12.org/assessment/ui/embed.html?test/view/5f45570f1527323954051782&collectionHandle=probability&collectionCreatorID=3&conceptCollectionHandle=probability-:吐舌头robability-of-compound-events&mode=lite" test-id="5f45570f1527323954051782">

     

    The first interactive was a simulation where both of the outcomes were equally likely. This next interactive will explore  a simulation where the  two outcomes are not equally likely.
    ::第一个互动是两个结果都具有同等可能性的模拟。 下一个互动将探索两个结果不具有同等可能性的模拟。

     

    Batting Averages
    ::平均打牌平均数

    In baseball, the batting average of a player is calculated  as:   number of hits number of at bats
    ::在棒球中,玩家的击球平均数计算为:蝙蝠的点击数

    Anything over 0.300 ( usually referred to as "300" ) is considered very good. A  good player in Major League Baseball will usually get about 100 at - bats in a month.
    ::任何超过0.300(通常称为“300 ”)的人都被认为是非常好。 大联盟棒球的好球员通常每月会得到100个球员。

    Use a die to perform a simulation of 100 at - bats for a player with a 0.333 batting average.  Start by answering the inline questions below to set up the simulation.
    ::使用 死 来为玩家模拟 100 个在球场上的球员, 平均击打数为 0. 333 。 开始回答下面的内线问题以设置模拟 。

     

     

    Now that you've designed the simulation, use the interactive to run it. Click on the die to randomly generate numbers. As you click on the die, the interactive will keep track of the results. Repeat this until you have 100 trials. Then answer the questions below the interactive.
    ::既然您已经设计了模拟, 请使用交互操作来运行它。 单击死亡来随机生成数字。 当您点击死亡时, 互动将记录结果。 重复此操作直到您有100次试验。 然后回答互动下面的问题 。

     

    INTERACTIVE
    Roll the Dice!
    minimize icon
    • Click on the die to roll it and record the result in the table.
      ::点击死神滚动并记录在表格中的结果。
    • Roll it 100 times and analyze the resulting distribution.
      ::滚动100次,分析结果的分布。
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    Baseball is a sport deeply rooted in probability and statistics. Batting average is just one of the many statistics that is calculated. Several things can affect a hitter's ability to hit : from strength or height, to the weather, to how well the pitcher is doing that day. Once a player has a hitting streak, sometimes they do some crazy things! They may repeat what they did the day leading up to  a particularly great game to hopefully repeat the outcome. Players may even stop shaving, not change their socks, or not wash a uniform.
    ::棒球是一种深深植根于概率和统计的体育。 击球平均只是计算出来的众多统计数据之一。 有几个东西可以影响打手的击球能力: 从强度或高度到天气,到投手当天的表现如何。 玩家一旦打球,有时会做一些疯狂的事。 他们可能重复他们为重现比赛结果而做的一天,希望他们能重复这场特别伟大的比赛。 玩家甚至可能停止刮胡子,不改变袜子,也不洗制服。

    There are many, many  things  might or might not affect  a batting average, which is why it is much easier to perform a simulation than try to predict what could happen by considering all of the possibilities!
    ::所以模拟比尝试通过考虑所有可能性来预测会发生什么事情要容易得多!

     

    Making a Simulation
    ::模拟模拟

    Choose an event and create a simulation to model its probability. Choose the appropriate tools to model the probability of the event. It may require research to find the probability of the possible outcomes. State the scenario, the probabilities, the research you did, and the simulation tools you chose.
    ::选择一个事件并创建一个模拟来模拟它的概率。 选择合适的工具来模拟事件的概率。 它可能需要研究才能找到可能的结果的概率。 描述情景、 概率、 你所做的研究, 以及您选择的模拟工具 。

     Summary
    ::摘要

    • To create a simulation, determine what event you want to simulate, describe the possible outcomes, and link each outcome to one or more random numbers. Then, choose a source of random numbers (coin, die, deck of cards, or computer program) and begin your simulation.
      ::要创建模拟, 确定您想要模拟什么事件, 描述可能的结果, 并将每个结果链接到一个或多个随机数字 。 然后选择随机数字的来源( coin, die, 牌甲板, 或计算机程序) 并开始模拟 。
    • Simulations are used when it is difficult to predict the actual probability of an event.
      ::在难以预测事件的实际概率时使用模拟。