章节大纲

  • 常规

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  • 与抽样和人口一起工作

    Producing Polls 
    ::生产彩票

    Polling is a  use of sampling that you have likely seen or heard of before. Polls are used to show how a population thinks and feels about a given issue. The issue may be a presidential race, a law, or even a non-political topic like a sporting event. In this section,  you will explore polling and how to best represent the thoughts and feelings of a population.
    ::投票是使用你以前可能见过或听说过的抽样。 民意测验用来展示人们对于某个问题的想法和感受。 问题可能是总统竞选、法律,甚至非政治性议题,比如体育赛事。 在本节中,你将探索民意测验以及如何最好地代表人们的想法和感受。

    Meghan lives in Aurora, Colorado, and is conducting a poll to see how people feel about the candidates for the upcoming mayoral election. She is asking people which candidate they would vote for. Which of the following do you think will produce a sample that best represents how the 366,623 citizens in Aurora think and feel?
    ::梅根住在科罗拉多州的奥罗拉,正在进行民意测验,以了解人们对即将到来的市长选举候选人的看法。她正在问人们他们将投票支持哪个候选人。你认为以下哪些人将产生一个样本,最能代表奥罗拉罗366,623名公民的想法和感受?

    • A sample of 1 0 citizens
      ::对10名公民进行抽样调查
    • A sample of 1 00 citizens
      ::对100名公民进行抽样调查
    • A sample of 1,000 citizens
      ::对1,000名公民的抽样调查
    • A  sample of 10,000 citizens
      ::对10,000名公民的抽样调查

    Discussion Questions
    ::讨论问题 讨论问题

    1. What is the population in this sample?
      ::抽样中的人口是多少?
    2. Which sample do you think Meghan should take?
      ::你觉得Meghan应该拿哪个样本?
    3. Do you think that a sample of 10 citizens will produce a good sample? Why?
      ::你认为10个公民的样本 会产生一个好的样本吗?为什么?
    4. Do you think that a sample of 1,000 citizens will produce a good sample? Why?
      ::你认为1000个公民的样本 会产生一个好的样本吗?为什么?
    5. What challenges would Meghan face collecting a 10,000 citizen sample?
      ::梅根在收集一万个公民样本时会面临什么挑战?

    Identifying Populations and Samples
    ::确定人口和抽样

    You've seen  that it is important to be able to identify populations and samples. As  you consider what makes a good sample, this will be even more important.
    ::您已经看到, 能够识别人口和样本是很重要的。 当你考虑一个好样本的成分时, 这将会更加重要。

    Use these interactive questions to help you brush up on the difference between populations and samples:
    ::使用这些交互问题来帮助您了解人口与样本之间的差别:

    Making Inferences
    ::作出推断

    Once  you have a strong understanding of samples and populations,  you can make an estimate of how a population feels about the issue. A conclusion based on evidence is called an inference. If 65% of a representative sample supports candidate George Henderson for the position of mayor in Aurora, Colorado, what does this lead  you to believe about the entire population?  You can infer that a majority of the entire Aurora population likely supports George Henderson.
    ::一旦你对样本和人口有了深刻的了解,你就可以对人口对这个问题的感受作出估计。根据证据得出的结论被称为推论。如果有65%的代表性样本支持候选人乔治·亨德森担任科罗拉多奥罗拉市长职位,你对全体人口有什么看法?你可以推断整个奥罗拉人口的大多数可能支持乔治·亨德森。

    Use the results of the following samples to answer the following questions: 
    ::使用下列样品的结果回答下列问题:

    Discussion Question
    ::讨论问题

    What information was missing from these questions that might affect our inferences?
    ::这些问题中缺少哪些信息可能影响我们的推论?

    Sample Size
    ::样本大小

    In a magazine, it states that “20% of the participants in a survey play soccer, which means that 20% of the children in the country play soccer.” While this survey may be accurate, there is much about it that isn't clear . If the survey was given to 10 participants, this would mean that 2 of the participants played soccer. If  just one more of the participants played soccer, the estimated percentage of  children in the whole world  who play soccer would change by 10 percentage points!
    ::在一份杂志中,它指出“20%的调查足球参与者是足球运动员,这意味着全国20%的儿童是足球运动员 ” 。 虽然这项调查可能准确无误,但有许多不清楚之处。 如果调查给了10名参与者,这意味着2名参与者是足球运动员。 如果只有1名参与者是足球运动员,那么全世界打足球儿童的估计百分比将改变10个百分点!

    To avoid this problem,  you can take a larger sample. In general, the larger the sample, the more confident  you can be that the results will represent the population and the less there will be. The margin of error is a concept  first  explored in  the lesson " " which expresses the difference between a measured value and the actual value as a percent .
    ::为了避免出现这个问题, 您可以选择一个更大的样本。 一般来说, 样本越大, 你就越相信结果能代表人口, 就会越少。 误差幅度是一个在“ ” 课中首先探讨的概念, 它表示测量值与实际值的百分比之间的差别 。

    In a perfect world,  you could just ask the entire population and have 0%  margin of error in  your  results (assuming all the data you collected was accurate). However,  that just isn't always practical or possible. Certainly you would have a hard time polling the entire population of a state or a country, for instance!
    ::在一个完美的世界里,你可以只问整个人口,而结果有百分之零的误差(假设你收集的所有数据都是准确的 ) 。 但是,这并不总是实际的或可能的。 当然,你很难对一个国家或一个国家的全体人口进行投票,比如说!

    The good news is that a good sample can be a remarkably accurate  tool for estimating the response of a much larger population. Even better , the larger the population, the smaller the relative size of the necessary sample! It probably seems strange, but even  the very largest populations, in the hundreds of millions or even billions, can be effectively represented by less than  4,000  samples!
    ::好消息是,良好的抽样可以是一个非常准确的工具,用来估计更多人口的反应。 更糟糕的是,人口越多,必要抽样的相对规模越小。 这似乎很奇怪,但即使是数亿甚至数十亿人口中最大的人口,也只有不到4000个。

    Discussion Questions  
    ::讨论问题 讨论问题

    1. Are there any other factors that could affect the accuracy of the survey above?
      ::是否有任何其他因素可能影响上述调查的准确性?
    2. What would be a good sample size to take a survey of everyone in the school?
      ::调查学校里每个人的样本规模会有多大?
    3. What would be a good sample size to take a survey of everyone in a city with a population of 10,000?
      ::在一个人口为10,000人的城市里,对每个城市的每一个人进行调查,那么,什么样的样本规模是很好的呢?
    4. What would be a good sample size to take a survey of everyone in Nevada which has a population of about 3 million?
      ::对内华达州人口约300万的每个人 进行一次调查的样本规模是多少?
    5. What would be a good sample size to take a survey of everyone in Europe which has a population of about 740 million?
      ::调查欧洲人口约7.4亿的每一个人,其抽样规模如何?
    6. As the populations got larger, some large sample sizes are required to have accurate results. What challenges does this present? What are some ways you can think of to potentially take a large sample?
      ::随着人口增加,需要一些大样本规模才能得出准确的结果。 这带来了什么挑战?你可以想出哪些方法来进行大样本?
    7. As the populations got larger, you  probably noticed that (to a point) so did the sample required to have accurate results. What challenges does this present? What are some ways you can think of to potentially take a large sample?
      ::随着人口增加,你可能注意到(到某一点)样本要求得出准确的结果。这带来了什么挑战?你能够想到哪些方法可以进行大量抽样?
      Summary
    • A conclusion based on evidence is called an inference. If you have data from a sample you can make an inference about the population.
      ::基于证据的结论被称为推论。如果有样本数据,您可以对人口进行推论。
    • The larger the size of the sample, more accurately the data will represent the population.
      ::样本的大小越大,数据将更准确地代表人口。