科学理由 - 高级

What does it mean to reason ?
::理性意味着什么?

"What does the data show? Did the work? Is the hypothesis correct?" Reasoning is the human process used to make sense of things. Reasoning is also used to establish and verify facts. "Scientific reasoning" is no different than everyday reasoning - it is used to make sense of things related to the scientific process, such as conclusions based on the results of an experiment.
::“数据显示什么?数据显示什么?是否工作?假设正确?假设正确吗?” 理性是人类用来理解事物的过程。理性也是用来确定和核实事实的。“科学推理”与日常推理没有区别,它用来理解与科学过程有关的东西,例如根据实验结果得出的结论。

Scientific Reasoning
::科学理由

Any useful hypothesis will allow predictions based on reasoning. Reasoning can be broken down into two categories: deduction and induction. Most reasoning in science is done through induction.
::任何有用的假设都允许根据推理作出预测。理由可以分为两类:扣减和诱导。科学的多数推理是通过引导完成的。

Deductive Reasoning: Deduction
::扣减理由:扣减

Deduction involves determining a single fact from a general statement; it is only as accurate as the statement.
::扣减是指从一般性说明中确定一个单一的事实;它与一般性说明一样准确。

For example, we know that all organisms are made of and need to maintain and must reproduce to stay alive. Therefore, since humans are organisms, we can then deduce that humans are made of cells, maintain homeostasis and reproduce.
::例如,我们知道,所有生物都是由细胞组成,需要保持和繁殖才能生存。 因此,由于人类是有机体,我们可以推断人类是由细胞组成,保持顺从和繁殖。

Deductions are based on valid reasoning. The reasoning in the following argument is valid, because there is no way in which the reasons 1 and 2, could be true and the conclusion, 3, be false:
::以下论点的推理是有道理的,因为理由1和理由2不可能是真实的,结论3不可能是虚假的:

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• Reason 1: All humans are mortal.
  ::原因1:所有人类都是凡人。
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• Reason 2: Albert Einstein is a human.
  ::原因2:爱因斯坦是人类
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• Conclusion: Albert Einstein ( Figure ) is mortal .
  ::结论:阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦(图)是凡人。

Inductive Reasoning: Induction
::引入理由:引入理由

Induction involves determining a general statement that is very likely to be true from several facts.
::上岗培训涉及从若干事实中确定非常可能属实的一般性陈述。

For example, if we have had a test every Tuesday for the past three months, we will have a test next Tuesday (and every Tuesday after that).
::例如,如果我们在过去三个月里每个星期二都进行测试,我们将在下星期二(以及其后的每个星期二)进行测试。

Induction contrasts strongly with deduction. Even in the best, strongest cases of induction, the truth of the reason does not guarantee the truth of the conclusion. Instead, the conclusion of an inductive argument is very likely to be true, but you cannot be fully sure it is true because you are making a prediction about a fact that has yet to be proven.
::引入与推论形成强烈的对比。 即使在最佳、最强的诱入案例中,理由的真相也不能保证结论的真相。 相反,暗示性论点的结论很可能是真实的,但你无法完全肯定,因为你正在预测一个尚未被证实的事实。

A classic example of inductive reasoning comes from the philosopher David Hume:
::哲学家大卫休姆(David Hume):

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• Reason: The sun has risen in the east every morning up until now.
  ::原因:太阳每天早上在东部升起 直到现在
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• Conclusion: The sun will also rise in the east tomorrow.
  ::结论:明天东部的太阳也将升起。

Inductive reasoning involves reaching conclusions about unobserved things on the basis of what has already been observed. Induction is used regularly in fields such as archaeology, where inferences about the past from present are made. Inductions could also be made across outer space, as in astronomy, where conclusions about the whole universe are drawn from the limited number of observations we are able to make.
::引入推理涉及根据已经观察到的情况就未观测到的东西作出结论,在考古学等领域经常采用上岗,从现在起对过去作出推论,还可在外层空间进行上岗,例如在天文学方面,从我们所能进行的观测数量有限的观测中得出关于整个宇宙的结论。

Summary
::摘要

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• Any useful hypothesis will allow predictions based on reasoning.
  ::任何有用的假设都允许根据推理作出预测。
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• Reasoning can be broken down into two categories: deduction and induction. Most reasoning in science is formed through induction.
  ::理据可分为两类:扣减和诱导,科学中的大多数推理是通过诱导形成的。

Review
::回顾

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1. What is meant by scientific reasoning?
   ::科学推理意味着什么?
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2. Outline the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning.
   ::概述感性推理和推理推理之间的差别。

Explore More
::探索更多

Use this resource to answer the questions that follow.
::使用此资源回答下面的问题 。

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1. What is the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning?
   ::推理和推理之间有什么区别?
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2. What is confirmation bias?
   ::确认偏见是什么?
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3. Why did investors expect Shrek 3 to be a box office hit?
   ::为什么投资者指望史莱克3号会成为拳击手?