通货膨胀 通货膨胀

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Inflation
::通货膨胀 通货膨胀

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In the U.S. economy, the annual inflation rate in the last two decades has typically been around 2% to 4%. The periods of highest inflation in the United States in the twentieth century occurred during the years after World Wars I and II and in the 1970s. The period of lowest inflation—actually, with deflation—was the Great Depression of the 1930s.
::在美国经济中,过去二十年的年通货膨胀率通常在2%到4%左右。 20世纪美国最高通胀时期发生在第一次和第二次世界大战之后的几年以及1970年代。 通货膨胀最低时期 — — 事实上是通缩时期 — — 是1930年代的大萧条。

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Unexpected inflation will tend to hurt those whose money received, including wages and interest payments, does not rise with inflation. In contrast, inflation can help those who owe money that can be paid in less valuable, inflated dollars. Low rates of inflation have a relatively small economic impact over the short term. Over the medium and the long run, even low rates of inflation can complicate future planning. High rates of inflation can muddle price signals in the short term, prevent market forces from operating efficiently, and can vastly complicate long-term savings and investment decisions.
::预料之外的通货膨胀往往会伤害那些收钱人,包括工资和利息支付,但不会随着通货膨胀而上升的人。 相反,通货膨胀可以帮助那些欠钱的人用价值较低、膨胀的美元支付。 低通货膨胀率在短期内对经济的影响相对较小。 从中长期来看,即使低通货膨胀率也会使未来的规划复杂化。 高通货膨胀率短期内会打乱价格信号,阻止市场力量有效运作,并可能使长期储蓄和投资决策大为复杂化。

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Universal Generalizations
::普遍化

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• Inflation is a general rise in the level of prices.
  ::通货膨胀是价格水平的普遍上升。
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• One reason for the concept of inflation is the "demand-pull" theory.
  ::通货膨胀概念的一个原因就是“需求拉动”理论。
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• Another reason for the concept of inflation is excessive monetary growth.
  ::通货膨胀概念的另一个原因是货币过度增长。
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• When price levels decrease, the dollar buys more.
  ::当物价下降时,美元买得更多。

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Guiding Questions
::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问

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1. How do economists determine inflation?
   ::经济学家如何确定通货膨胀?
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2. What are two consequences of inflation?
   ::通货膨胀的两种后果是什么?
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3. Why does inflation destabilize the economy?
   ::为什么通货膨胀破坏经济稳定?

 

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Introduction to Inflation
::通货膨胀导言

                                             Big Bucks in Zimbabwe

This bill was worth 100 billion Zimbabwean dollars when issued in 2008. There were even bills issued with a face value of 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollars. The bills had $100,000,000,000,000 written on them. Unfortunately, they were almost worthless. At one point, 621,984,228 Zimbabwean dollars were equal to one U.S. dollar. Eventually, the country abandoned its currency and allowed the foreign currency to be used for purchases. (Credit: modification of work by Samantha Marx/Flickr Creative Commons)

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Video: What Causes Inflation?
::录像:什么是通货膨胀的原因?

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A $550 Million Loaf of Bread?
::5亿5千万的面包面包?

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If you were born within the last three decades in the United States, Canada, or many other countries in the developed world, you probably have no real experience with a high rate of inflation. Inflation is when most prices in an entire economy are rising, but there is an extreme form of inflation called hyperinflation. Hyperinflation occurred in Germany between 1921 and 1928, and more recently in Zimbabwe between 2008 and 2009. In November of 2008, Zimbabwe had an inflation rate of 79.6 billion percent. In contrast, in 2012, the United States had an average annual rate of inflation of 2.1%.
::如果你是在过去三十年中在美国、加拿大或发达国家出生的,那么你很可能没有高通货膨胀率的实际经验。 通货膨胀是整个经济中大多数物价都在上涨的时候,但有一种极端的通货膨胀形式,叫做恶性通货膨胀。 1921-1928年间,德国出现了超通胀,最近2008年至2009年间,津巴布韦也出现了超通胀。 2008年11月,津巴布韦的通胀率为796亿。 而2012年,美国年平均通胀率为2.1%。

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Zimbabwe’s inflation rate was so high that it is difficult to comprehend, so let’s put it into context. It was equivalent to price increases of 98% per day; essentially, from one day to the next, prices essentially doubled. What is life like in an economy afflicted with hyperinflation? Prices for commodities in Zimbabwean dollars were adjusted several times each day . There was no desire to hold on to currency since it lost value by the minute. The people there spent a great deal of time getting rid of any cash they acquired by purchasing whatever food or other commodities they could find. At one point, a loaf of bread cost 550 million Zimbabwean dollars. Surprisingly, teachers were paid in the trillions a month; however, this was equivalent to only one U.S. dollar a day. At its height, it took 621,984,228 Zimbabwean dollars to purchase one U.S. dollar.
::津巴布韦的通货膨胀率如此之高,令人难以理解,因此让我们把它放在背景中。 它相当于每天价格上涨98 % ; 基本上,从一天到下一天,价格基本翻了一番。 在一个遭受恶性通货膨胀的经济体中,生活是怎样的? 津巴布韦元的商品价格每天都有几次调整。 津巴布韦元的商品价格每分钟就失去价值,因此不想坚持货币。 那里的人民花了大量时间去掉他们通过购买任何食品或其他商品而获得的任何现金。 在一个时刻,面包的面包价格是5.5亿津巴布韦元。 令人惊讶的是,教师每月只付了数万亿美元;然而,这却相当于每天只付一美元。 在高峰期,津巴布韦元花了621,984,228美元购买了1美元。

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Government agencies had no money to pay their workers so they started printing money to pay their bills rather than raising taxes. Rising prices caused the government to enact price controls on private businesses, which led to shortages and the emergence of black markets. In 2009, the country abandoned its currency and allowed foreign currencies to be used for purchases.
::政府机关没有钱支付工人,因此他们开始印刷钞票以支付账单而不是提高税收。 价格上涨导致政府对私营企业实行价格控制,导致短缺和黑市的出现。 2009年,该国放弃了货币,允许外币用于购买。

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How does this happen? How can both government and the economy fail to function at the most basic level? Before we consider these extreme cases of hyperinflation, let’s first look at inflation itself.
::为什么会这样呢? 政府和经济怎么能在最基本的水平上都无法运作? 在我们考虑这些极端的恶性通货膨胀案例之前,让我们先看看通货膨胀本身。

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Inflation is a general and ongoing rise in the level of prices in an entire economy. Inflation does not refer to a change in relative prices. A relative price change occurs when you see that the price of tuition has risen, but the price of laptops has fallen. Inflation, on the other hand, means that there is pressure for prices to rise in most markets in the economy. In addition, price increases in the supply-and-demand model were one-time events, representing a shift from a previous equilibrium to a new one. Inflation implies an ongoing rise in prices. If inflation happened for one year and then stopped—well, then it would not be inflation anymore.
::通货膨胀是整个经济中价格水平的普遍和持续上升,通货膨胀不是指相对价格的变化。当你看到学费上涨,但膝上型电脑价格下跌时,相对价格的变化就会发生。另一方面,通货膨胀意味着大多数经济市场都面临价格上涨的压力。此外,供需模式的价格上涨是一次性事件,代表了从以前的平衡向新的平衡的转变。通货膨胀意味着价格不断上涨。如果通货膨胀持续了一年,然后停止了,那么它就不再是通货膨胀了。

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Degrees of Inflation
::通货膨胀程度

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There are three basic terms used to describe inflation:  creeping inflation, galloping inflation, and hyperinflation.  Creeping inflation is calculated at between 1-3% per year. While creeping inflation is not immediately felt, consumers notice that over time prices have increased. Galloping inflation has a much larger impact of anywhere from 100% to 300% inflation. The most recent example of galloping inflation occurred in Latin American countries and former command economy Communist nations. Hyperinflation is when the percentage exceeds 500% interest per year, however, if this should actually occur then the next step would be a total collapse of the economy.
::通货膨胀有三个基本术语用来描述通货膨胀:递增通货膨胀、急速通货膨胀和恶性通货膨胀。 缩小通货膨胀的计算为每年1-3%。 虽然没有立即感受到递增通货膨胀,但消费者注意到随着时间推移通货膨胀已经上涨。 大幅膨胀的通货膨胀影响要大得多,从100%到300 %的通货膨胀。 加速通货膨胀的最新例子发生在拉丁美洲国家和前指挥经济共产主义国家。 超通货膨胀是当百分比每年超过500%的利息时,然而,如果实际发生这种情况,下一步将是经济全面崩溃。

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To read more about hyperinflation, read the following article:  .
::关于恶性通货膨胀的更多信息,请阅读以下条款:

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Tracking Inflation
::跟踪通货膨胀

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Dinner table conversations where you might have heard about inflation usually entail reminiscing about when “everything seemed to cost so much less. You used to be able to buy three gallons of gasoline for a dollar and then go see an afternoon movie for another dollar.” 1 compares some prices of common goods in 1970 and 2012. Of course, the average prices shown in this table may not reflect the prices where you live. The cost of living in New York City is much higher than in Houston, Texas, for example. In addition, certain products have evolved over recent decades. A new car in 2012, loaded with antipollution equipment, safety gear, computerized engine controls, and many other technological advances, is a more advanced machine (and more fuel efficient) than your typical 1970s car. However, put details like these to one side for the moment and look at the overall pattern. The primary reason behind the price rises in 1—and all the price increases for the other products in the economy—is not specific to the market for housing or cars or gasoline or movie tickets. Instead, it is part of a general rise in the level of all prices. In 2012, $1 had about the same purchasing power in overall terms of goods and services as 18 cents did in 1970, because of the amount of inflation that has occurred over that time period.
::晚餐桌交谈中,你可能听说过通货膨胀通常会让人想起何时“一切似乎成本都如此低得多。你曾经能够购买三加仑汽油一美元,然后去看下午电影一美元。” 1 比较了1970年和2012年的一些普通商品价格。 当然,本表显示的平均价格可能无法反映你住处的价格。例如,纽约市的生活费用比得克萨斯州休斯顿要高得多。此外,某些产品在最近几十年里已经发展了。2012年一辆新车装满了防污染设备、安全设备、计算机引擎控制和许多其他技术进步,比1970年代典型的汽车更先进(而且燃料效率更高 ) 。然而,当下图一将细节放在一边,看看总体模式。本表显示的平均价格上涨原因 — — 以及经济中其他产品的所有价格上涨 — 并不是住房、汽车、汽油或电影票市场所特有的。 相反,2012年一辆新车装有防污设备、安全设备、计算机化引擎控制和许多其他技术进步的汽车,比1970年代的汽车价格水平都普遍上涨。 2012年,1美元购买了18美元,因为总体价格的通胀率高于1970年。

播放段落 Price Comparisons, 1970 and 2012 ::1970年和2012年价格比较
播放段落 Items ::项目项目项目项目 项目	1970	2012
播放段落 Pound of ground beef ::硬牛肉	$0.66	$3.24
播放段落 Pound of butter ::黄油磅	$0.87	$2.80
播放段落 Movie ticket ::电影票	$1.55	$7.96
播放段落 Sales price of existing home ::现有房屋销售价格	$23,000	$185,283
播放段落 New car ::新车新车	$3,000	$30,303
播放段落 Gallon of gasoline ::汽油加仑汽油	$0.36	$3.48
播放段落 Average hourly wage for a manufacturing worker ::制造业工人平均小时工资	$3.23	$19.17
播放段落 Per capita GDP ::人均国内总产值 人均国内总产值	$5,069	$43,063

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T he power of inflation does not affect just goods and services, but it also affects wages and income levels, too. The second-to-last row of shows that the average hourly wage for a manufacturing worker increased nearly six-fold from 1970 to 2012. Sure, the average worker in 2012 is better educated and more productive than the average worker in 1970—but not six times more productive. Sure, per capita GDP increased substantially from 1970 to 2012, but is the average person in the U.S. economy truly more than eight times better off in just 42 years? Not likely.
::通货膨胀的力量不仅影响商品和服务,它也影响工资和收入水平。 第二行至最后一行显示,从1970年到2012年,制造业工人的平均小时工资增长了近六倍。 当然,2012年的平均工人比1970年的平均工人受教育程度更高,生产率更高 — — 但不比1970年的平均工人高六倍。 当然,1970年到2012年的人均GDP大幅增长,但美国经济的平均人均GDP在42年内是否真的超过8倍? 不太可能。

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A modern economy has millions of goods and services whose prices are continually  fluctuating due to  supply and demand. How can all of these shifts in price be boiled down to a single inflation rate? As with many problems in economic measurement, the conceptual answer is reasonably straightforward: Prices of a variety of goods and services are combined into a single price level; the inflation rate is just the percentage change in the price level. Applying the concept, however, involves some practical difficulties.
::现代经济拥有成百万的商品和服务,其价格因供求而持续波动,所有这些物价变动如何归结为单一的通货膨胀率?与经济计量方面的许多问题一样,概念答案是相当直截了当的:各种商品和服务的价格被合并为一个单一的价格水平;通货膨胀率只是价格水平的百分率变化。 然而,应用这一概念也有一些实际困难。

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The Price of a Basket of Goods
::一篮子货物的价格

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To calculate the price level, economists begin with the concept of a basket of goods and services, consisting of the different items individuals, businesses, or organizations typically buy. The next step is to look at how the prices of those items change over time. In thinking about how to combine individual prices into an overall price level, many people find that their first impulse is to calculate the average of the prices. Such a calculation, however, could easily be misleading because some products matter more than others.
::为了计算价格水平,经济学家首先从由个人、企业或组织通常购买的不同物品组成的一揽子货物和服务概念开始。 下一步是审视这些物品的价格如何随时间变化。 在思考如何将个人价格与总体价格水平相结合时,许多人发现他们的第一个动力是计算价格的平均值。 然而,这样的计算很容易产生误导,因为某些产品比其他产品更重要。

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Changes in the prices of goods for which people spend a larger share of their incomes will matter more than changes in the prices of goods for which people spend a smaller share of their incomes. For example, an increase of 10% in the rental rate on housing matters more to most people than whether the price of carrots rises by 10%. To construct an overall measure of the price level, economists compute a weighted average of the prices of the items in the basket, where the weights are based on the actual quantities of goods and services people buy.
::人们花费收入中较大份额的商品价格的变化比人们花费收入中较小份额的商品价格的变化要重要得多,例如,对大多数人来说,住房租金上涨10%比胡萝卜价格是否上涨10%更重要。 为了对价格水平进行总体衡量,经济学家计算篮子中物品价格的加权平均数,其中加权数以人们购买的货物和服务的实际数量为基础。

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What Happens During Episodes of Deflation?
::通缩时发生什么了?

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Deflation occurs when the rate of inflation is negative; that is, instead of money having less purchasing power over time, as occurs with inflation, money is worth more. Deflation can make it very difficult for monetary policy to address a recession.
::当通货膨胀率为负时就会出现通缩;也就是说,货币不是像通货膨胀那样随着时间推移购买力下降,而是货币的价值更高。 通缩会使货币政策很难应对衰退。

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Remember that the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. If the nominal interest rate is 7% and the rate of inflation is 3%, then the borrower is effectively paying a 4% real interest rate. If the nominal interest rate is 7% and there is deflation of 2%, then the real interest rate is actually 9%. In this way, an unexpected deflation raises the real interest payments for borrowers. It can lead to a situation where an unexpectedly high number of loans are not repaid, and banks find that their net worth is decreasing or negative. When banks are suffering losses, they become less able and eager to make new loans. Aggregate demand declines, which can lead to recession.
::记住实际利率是名义利率减去通胀率。 如果名义利率为7 % , 通货膨胀率为3 % , 那么借款人实际上支付实际利率为4 % 。 如果名义利率为7 % , 实际利率为2 % , 那么实际利率实际上为9 % 。 这样,意外通缩提高了借款人的实际利率。 这可能导致出现出乎意料的高额贷款得不到偿还,而银行发现其净值在下降或负值。 当银行遭受损失时,它们就变得不那么有能力和急于提供新贷款。 总体需求下降可能导致衰退。

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Then the double-whammy: After causing a recession, deflation can make it difficult for monetary policy to work. Say that the central bank uses expansionary monetary policy to reduce the nominal interest rate all the way to zero—but the economy has 5% deflation. As a result, the real interest rate is 5%, and because a central bank cannot make the nominal interest rate negative, expansionary policy cannot reduce the real interest rate further.
::然后是双重负担:在造成衰退之后,通缩可能使货币政策难以发挥作用。 说央行使用扩张货币政策将名义利率完全降至零 — — 但经济却有5%的通缩。 结果,实际利率为5%,而且由于央行无法使名义利率负值,扩张政策无法进一步降低实际利率。

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In the U.S. economy during the early 1930s, deflation was 6.7% per year from 1930–1933, which caused many borrowers to default on their loans and many banks to end up bankrupt, which in turn contributed substantially to the Great Depression. Not all episodes of deflation, however, end in economic depression. Japan, for example, experienced deflation of slightly less than 1% per year from 1999–2002, which hurt the Japanese economy, but it still grew by about 0.9% per year over this period. Indeed, there is at least one historical example of deflation coexisting with rapid growth. The U.S. economy experienced deflation of about 1.1% per year over the quarter-century from 1876–1900, but real GDP also expanded at a rapid clip of 4% per year over this time, despite some occasional severe recessions.
::20世纪30年代初期,美国经济的通缩为每年6.7 % , 从1930—1933年以来,每年6.7 % , 导致许多借款人拖欠贷款,许多银行最终破产,这反过来又导致大萧条。 然而,并非所有通缩事件都以经济萧条告终。 比如,日本从1999—2002年经历了每年略低于1 % 的通缩,这伤害了日本经济,但这一时期它每年仍增长约0.9 % 。 事实上,至少有一个通缩与快速增长共存的历史例子。 美国经济在1876—1900年这一季度经历了每年1.1 % 的通缩,但实际GDP也在这一时期以每年4 % 的快速增长,尽管偶尔出现严重衰退。

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The central bank should be on guard against deflation and, if necessary, use expansionary monetary policy to prevent any long-lasting or extreme deflation from occurring. Except in severe cases like the Great Depression, deflation does not guarantee economic disaster.
::央行应该警惕通缩,并在必要时使用扩张性货币政策防止任何长期或极端通缩发生。 除大萧条等严重情形外,通缩并不能保证经济灾难。

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Index Numbers
::指数数

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The numerical results of a calculation based on a basket of goods can get a little messy. The simplified example in 2 has only three goods and the prices are in even dollars, not numbers like 79 cents or $124.99. If the list of products was much longer, and more realistic prices were used, the total quantity spent over a year might be some messy-looking number like $17,147.51 or $27,654.92.
::以一篮子货物为基础的计算结果可能有点混乱。 简略的例子2只有三件货物,价格以美元平价,而不是79美分或124.99美元。 如果产品清单要长得多,并且使用更现实的价格,那么一年中花费的总量可能有点混乱,比如17 147.51美元或27 654.92美元。

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To simplify the task of interpreting the price levels for more realistic and complex baskets of goods, the price level in each period is typically reported as an index number, rather than as the dollar amount for buying the basket of goods. Price indices are created to calculate an overall average change in relative prices over time. To convert the money spent on the basket to an index number, economists arbitrarily choose one year to be the base year, or starting point from which we measure changes in prices. The base year, by definition, has an index number equal to 100. This sounds complicated, but it is really a simple math trick. In the example above, say that time period 3 is chosen as the base year. Since the total amount of spending in that year is $107, we divide that amount by itself ($107) and multiply by 100. Mathematically, that is equivalent to dividing $107 by 100, or $1.07. Doing either will give us an index in the base year of 100. Again, this is because the index number in the base year always has to have a value of 100. Then, to figure out the values of the index number for the other years, we divide the dollar amounts for the other years by 1.07 as well. Note also that the dollar signs cancel out so that index numbers have no units.
::为了简化解释更现实和复杂货物篮子的价格水平的任务,每个时期的价格水平通常以指数数字而不是购买篮子货物的美元数额来报告,制定价格指数是为了计算相对价格的长期总体平均变化。为了将篮子上花费的资金转换成指数数字,经济学家任意选择一年作为基准年,或作为我们衡量价格变化的起点。根据定义,基准年的指数数字等于100,这听起来很复杂,但实际上是一个简单的数学把戏。在以上的例子中,时间段3是作为基准年选择的。由于该年的支出总额是107美元,我们将这一数额本身除以107美元,乘以100美元,这等于将107美元除以100美元,或1.07美元。如果两者中任何一个,我们就将在基准年的指数中给我们一个基准年的指数,这同样是因为基准年的指数数字总是有100美元的值,然后,用其他年份的指数数字来算出一个基准年的数值。由于该年的指数数字没有除以1.07美元,因此其他年份的美元数字也没有除以1.07美元。

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Calculations for the other values of the index number, based on the example presented in 2 are shown in 3. Because the index numbers are calculated so that they are in exactly the same proportion as the total dollar cost of purchasing the basket of goods, the inflation rate can be calculated based on the index numbers, using the percentage change formula. So, the inflation rate from period 1 to period 2 would be
::3. 由于指数数字的计算方法与购买篮子货物的美元总成本的比例完全相同,因此通货膨胀率可以根据指数数字,用百分数变化公式计算。 因此,从1至2期间的通货膨胀率是按百分比变化公式计算的。

             ( 99.5 – 93.4 )    93.4              = 0.065 = 6.5%

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This is the same answer that was derived when measuring inflation based on the dollar cost of the basket of goods for the same time period.
::这是根据同期一揽子货物的美元成本计算通货膨胀时得出的相同答案。

播放段落 Calculating Index Numbers When Period 3 is the Base Year ::当第3期为基准年时计算指数编号
	播放段落 Total Spending ::支出共计	播放段落 Index Number ::指数编号	播放段落 Inflation Rate Since Previous Period ::自上期以来的通货膨胀率
播放段落 Period 1 ::期间1 1	$100	100/ 1.07 = 93.4
播放段落 Period 2 ::期间2 2	$106.50	106.50/ 1.07 = 99.5	(99.5 – 93.4)93.4 = 0.065 = 6.5%
播放段落 Period 3 ::期间3 3	$107	107/ 1.07 = 100.0	100 – 99.599.5 = 0.005 = 0.5%
播放段落 Period 4 ::期间4 4	$117.50	117.50/ 1.07 = 109.8	109.8 – 100100 = 0.098 = 9.8%

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If the inflation rate is the same whether it is based on dollar values or index numbers, then why bother with the index numbers? The advantage is that indexing allows easier eyeballing of the inflation numbers. If you glance at two index numbers like 107 and 110, you know automatically that the rate of inflation between the two years is about, but not quite exactly equal to, 3%. By contrast, imagine that the price levels were expressed in absolute dollars of a large basket of goods, so that when you looked at the data, the numbers were $19,493.62 and $20,009.32. Most people find it difficult to eyeball those kinds of numbers and say that it is a change of about 3%. However, the two numbers expressed in absolute dollars are exactly in the same proportion of 107 to 110 as the previous example.
::如果通货膨胀率与以美元价值或指数数字为依据的通货膨胀率相同,那么何以烦恼指数数字? 优点在于指数化可以更容易地观察通货膨胀数字。 如果你看一下107和110这样的两个指数数字,你就会自动知道这两年的通货膨胀率是大约,但并不完全等于3%。 相反,想象价格水平是以一大批商品的绝对美元表示的,这样,当你查看数据时,数字是19,493.62和20,009.32美元。大多数人发现难以观察这些数字,并说它是大约3%的变化。然而,以绝对美元表示的这两个数字与前一个例子的107至110的比例完全相同。

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Why Do You Not Just Subtract Index Numbers?
::你为什么不只是减号指数?

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A word of warning : When a price index moves from, say, 107 to 110, the rate of inflation is not exactly 3%. Remember, the inflation rate is not derived by subtracting the index numbers, but rather through the percentage-change calculation. The precise inflation rate as the price index moves from 107 to 110 is calculated as (110 – 107) / 107 = 0.028 = 2.8%. When the base year is fairly close to 100, a quick subtraction is not a terrible shortcut to calculating the inflation rate—but when precision matters down to tenths of a percent, subtracting will not give the right answer.
::警告一句:当价格指数从107到110之间移动时,通货膨胀率并不是完全3 % 。 记住,通胀率不是通过减去指数数字,而是通过百分率变化计算得出的。 价格指数从107到110的确切通货膨胀率计算为(110 - 107 ) / 107 = 0.028 = 2.8 。 当基准年接近100 时,快速减价并不是计算通货膨胀率的可怕捷径 — — 但是,当精确到百分之十时,减价不会给出正确的答案。

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Two final points about index numbers are worth remembering. First, index numbers have no dollar signs or other units attached to them. Although index numbers can be used to calculate a percentage inflation rate, the index numbers themselves do not have percentage signs. Index numbers just mirror the proportions found in other data. They transform the other data so that the data are easier to work with.
::有关指数数字的两个最后点值得记住。 首先,指数数字没有美元符号或附着其他单位。 虽然指数数字可以用来计算一个百分比通货膨胀率,但指数数字本身没有百分数符号。 指数数字只是反映其他数据中发现的比例。 它们转换其他数据,使数据更容易使用。

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Second, the choice of a base year for the index number—that is, the year that is automatically set equal to 100—is arbitrary. It is chosen as a starting point from which changes in prices are tracked. In the official inflation statistics, it is common to use one base year for a few years, and then to update it, so that the base year of 100 is relatively close to the present. But any base year that is chosen for the index numbers will result in exactly the same inflation rate. To see this in the previous example, imagine that period 1, when total spending was $100, was also chosen as the base year, and given an index number of 100. At a glance, you can see that the index numbers would now exactly match the dollar figures, the inflation rate in the first period would be 6.5%, and so on.
::其次,为指数数字选择一个基准年(即自动确定为100的年份)是任意的。它被选为追踪价格变化的起点。在官方通货膨胀统计中,通常使用一个基准年来计算几年,然后更新,这样100的基年与现在相对接近。但是,为指数数字选择的任何基准年将导致完全相同的通货膨胀率。在上一个例子中,想象当总开支为100美元时,第1期也被选为基准年,并给出100的指数号。一看,你可以看到指数数字现在与美元数字完全吻合,第一个时期的通货膨胀率将是6.5%,等等。

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The price level is measured by using a basket of goods and services and calculating how the total cost of buying that basket of goods will increase over time. The price level is often expressed in terms of index numbers, which transform the cost of buying the basket of goods and services into a series of numbers in the same proportion to each other but with an arbitrary base year of 100. The rate of inflation is measured as the percentage change between price levels or index numbers over time.
::价格水平的衡量方法是使用一篮子货物和服务,并计算购买这篮子货物的总成本如何随时间推移而增加,价格水平通常以指数数字表示,指数数字将购买一篮子货物和服务的费用转换成一系列数字,彼此比例相同,但以100为任意基准年。 通货膨胀率以价格水平或指数数字之间的百分比变化来衡量。

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How Changes in the Cost of Living are Measured
::如何衡量生活费用的变化

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The most commonly cited measure of inflation in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is calculated by government statisticians at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics based on the prices in a fixed basket of goods and services that represents the purchases of the average family of four. In recent years, the statisticians have paid considerable attention to a subtle problem: that the change in the total cost of buying a fixed basket of goods and services over time is conceptually not quite the same as the change in the cost of living, because the cost of living represents how much it costs for a person to feel that his or her consumption provides an equal level of satisfaction or utility.
::美国最常用的通货膨胀衡量标准是消费物价指数(CPI),消费物价指数是由美国劳工统计局的统计人员根据代表四人平均家庭购买的固定商品和服务篮子的价格计算的。 近年来,统计人员相当关注一个微妙的问题:购买固定商品和服务篮子的总成本随时间推移的变化在概念上与生活费用的变化并不完全相同,因为生活费用意味着一个人感到其消费能提供同等程度的满意度或实用性,其生活费用意味着其生活费用的代价。

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To understand the distinction, imagine that over the past 10 years, the cost of purchasing a fixed basket of goods increased by 25% and your salary also increased by 25%. Has your personal standard of living held constant? If you do not necessarily purchase an identical fixed basket of goods every year, then an inflation calculation based on the cost of a fixed basket of goods may be a misleading measure of how your cost of living has changed. Two problems arise here: substitution bias and quality/new goods bias.
::为了理解这一区别,想象一下,在过去10年中,购买固定货篮的成本增加了25%,而你的工资也增加了25%。你的个人生活水平是否保持不变?如果你不一定每年购买相同的固定货篮,那么,根据固定货篮成本计算的通货膨胀可能误导你的生活成本如何变化。这里出现两个问题:替代偏差和质量/新货偏差。

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When the price of a good rises, consumers tend to purchase less of it and to seek out substitutes instead. Conversely, as the price of a good falls, people will tend to purchase more of it. This pattern implies that goods with generally rising prices should tend over time to become less important in the overall basket of goods used to calculate inflation, while goods with falling prices should tend to become more important. Consider, as an example, a rise in the price of peaches by $100 per pound. If consumers were utterly inflexible in their demand for peaches, this would lead to a big rise in the price of food for consumers. Alternatively, imagine that people are utterly indifferent to whether they have peaches or other types of fruit. Now, if peach prices rise, people completely switch to other fruit choices and the average price of food does not change at all. A fixed and unchanging basket of goods assumes that consumers are locked into buying exactly the same goods, regardless of price changes—not a very likely assumption. Thus, substitution bias—the rise in the price of a fixed basket of goods over time—tends to overstate the rise in a consumer’s true cost of living, because it does not take into account that the person can substitute away from goods whose relative prices have risen.
::当好涨的价格上升时,消费者往往购买较少,而是寻找替代物。 相反,当好跌价格下跌时,人们就会购买更多。 这一模式意味着价格普遍上涨的商品在用来计算通货膨胀的商品总量中会逐渐变得不太重要,而价格下跌的商品则会变得更加重要。 以蜜桃价格每磅上涨100美元为例,考虑蜜桃价格每磅上涨100美元;如果消费者对桃子的需求完全不灵活,这将导致消费者食品价格的大幅上涨。 或者,想象人们对桃子或其他种类水果的价格上涨完全漠不关心。 现在,如果桃子价格上涨,人们就会完全转向其他水果选择,而平均粮食价格根本没有变化。 固定和不变的商品篮子假设消费者被锁在购买完全相同的商品,而不管价格的变化 — — 并不是非常可能的假设。 因此,替代偏差 — — 固定商品篮子价格的上涨将会导致时间过长 — — 夸大了消费者相对价格的上涨 — — 而不是消费价格的上涨。

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The other major problem in using a fixed basket of goods as the basis for calculating inflation is how to deal with the arrival of improved versions of older goods or altogether new goods. Consider the problem that arises if a cereal is improved by adding 12 essential vitamins and minerals—and also if a box of the cereal costs 5% more. It would clearly be misleading to count the entire resulting higher price as inflation because the new price is being charged for a product of higher (or at least different) quality. Ideally, one would like to know how much of the higher price is due to the quality change, and how much of it is just a higher price. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the computation of the Consumer Price Index, must deal with these difficulties in adjusting for quality changes.
::使用固定商品篮子作为计算通货膨胀基础的另一个主要问题是如何处理旧商品或全新商品的改良版本的到来。考虑如果通过增加12种基本维生素和矿产品来改善谷类,以及如果谷物成本增加5 % , 以及如果谷类成本增加5 % 来改善谷类,则会产生问题。 将由此而来的全部较高价格算作通货膨胀显然是误导的,因为新价格是为质量更高(或至少不同)的产品收取的。 理想的情况是,人们想知道高价格中有多少是质量变化造成的,而其中多少只是更高的价格。 负责计算消费物价指数的劳工统计局必须应对这些调整质量变化的困难。

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A new product can be thought of as an extreme improvement in quality—from something that did not exist to something that does. However, the basket of goods that was fixed in the past obviously does not include new goods created since then. The basket of goods and services used in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is revised and updated over time, and so new products are gradually included. But the process takes some time. For example, room air conditioners were widely sold in the early 1950s, but were not introduced into the basket of goods behind the Consumer Price Index until 1964. The VCR and personal computer were available in the late 1970s and widely sold by the early 1980s, but did not enter the CPI basket of goods until 1987. By 1996, there were more than 40 million cellular phone subscribers in the United States—but cell phones were not yet part of the CPI basket of goods. The parade of inventions has continued, with the CPI inevitably lagging a few years behind.
::新产品可被视为质量的极大改进——从不存在的商品到没有的商品,然而,过去固定的一篮子货物显然不包括自那时以来创造的新商品,消费物价指数(CPI)中使用的一篮子货物和服务随着时间而修订和更新,因此新产品逐渐被包括在内,但这一过程需要一段时间,例如,在1950年代初期广泛销售室内空调,但直到1964年才被引入消费者物价指数背后的一篮子货物中。 VCR和个人计算机在1970年代末期提供,到1980年代初期广泛销售,但直到1987年才进入CPI货物篮子。1996年,美国有超过4 000万个移动电话用户,但移动电话还不是CPI商品篮子的一部分。各种发明的招集仍在继续,而CPI不可避免地落后了几年。

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The arrival of new goods creates problems with respect to the accuracy of measuring inflation. The reason people buy new goods, presumably, is that the new goods offer better value for money than existing goods. Thus, if the price index leaves out new goods, it overlooks one of the ways in which the cost of living is improving. In addition, the price of a new good is often higher when it is first introduced and then declines over time. If the new good is not included in the CPI for some years, until its price is already lower, the CPI may miss counting this price decline altogether. Taking these arguments together, the quality/new goods bias means that the rise in the price of a fixed basket of goods over time tends to overstate the rise in a consumer’s true cost of living, because it does not take into account how improvements in the quality of existing goods or the invention of new goods improves the standard of living. The following Clear It Up feature is a must-read on how the CPI is comprised and calculated.
::新货物的到来在衡量通货膨胀的准确性方面造成了问题。人们购买新货物的原因,大概是新货物比现有货物更具有货币价值。因此,如果价格指数遗漏了新货物,它忽略了生活费用正在提高的方式之一。此外,新货物在首次引进时价格往往更高,然后随着时间推移而下降。如果新货物在几年内没有列入消费物价指数,直到价格已经降低,消费物价指数可能完全忽略了这一价格下降。把这些论点加在一起,质量/新货物偏差意味着固定货物篮的价格随时间推移往往高了消费者真正生活费用的上涨,因为它没有考虑到现有货物质量的改善或新货物的发明如何提高生活水平。后面的Cle It Up特征是必须了解消费物价指数的构成和计算方式。

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Clear It Up: How do U.S. Government Statisticians Measure the Consumer Price Index?
::明确:美国政府统计员如何衡量消费物价指数?

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When the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the Consumer Price Index, the first task is to decide on a basket of goods that is representative of the purchases of the average household. This is done by using the Consumer Expenditure Survey, a national survey of about 7,000 households, which provides detailed information on spending habits. Consumer expenditures are broken up into eight major groups, shown below, which in turn are broken up into more than 200 individual item categories. The BLS currently uses 1982–1984 as the base period.
::当美国劳工统计局(BLS)计算消费物价指数时,第一个任务是决定代表平均家庭购买量的一篮子商品。 这是通过使用消费者支出调查来完成的。 消费者支出调查是对大约7,000户家庭进行的一项全国性调查,它提供了有关消费习惯的详细信息。 消费者支出分为八大类,如下表所示,这八大类消费支出又分为200多个单项类别。 BLS目前使用1982-1984年作为基准期。

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For each of the 200 individual expenditure items, the BLS chooses several hundred very specific examples of that item and looks at the prices of those examples. So, in figuring out the “breakfast cereal” item under the overall category of “foods and beverages,” the BLS picks several hundred examples of breakfast cereal. One example might be the price of a 24-oz. box of a particular brand of cereal sold at a particular store. The specific products and sizes and stores chosen are statistically selected to reflect what people buy and where they shop. The basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index thus consists of about 80,000 products; that is, several hundred specific products in over 200 broad-item categories. About one-quarter of these 80,000 specific products are rotated out of the sample each year, and replaced with a different set of products.
::对于200个个别支出项目中的每一项,BLS都选择了数百个非常具体的例子,并查看了这些例子的价格。因此,在“食品和饮料”这一总类别下,BLS选择了数百个“早餐谷物”项目。BLS选择了数百个早餐谷类的例子。其中一个例子可能是某家特定商店销售的某种谷物品牌的24英尺框的价格。所选择的具体产品和大小以及商店是统计性选择的,以反映人们购买和商店的种类。因此,消费物价指数中的商品篮子由大约80,000种产品组成,即200多个宽项类别中的几百种具体产品。这80,000种具体产品中,大约四分之一每年从抽样中轮换出来,代之以不同的产品。

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The next step is to collect data on prices. Data collectors visit or call about 23,000 stores in 87 urban areas all over the United States every month to collect prices on these 80,000 specific products. A survey of 50,000 landlords or tenants is also carried out to collect information about rents.
::下一步是收集价格数据,数据收集员每月访问美国87个城市地区约23 000家商店或打电话,以收集这80 000件具体产品的价格,并对50 000名房东或租户进行调查,以收集关于租金的资料。

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The Consumer Price Index is then calculated by taking the 80,000 prices of individual products and combining them, using weights (as shown in 1) determined by the quantities of these products that people buy and allowing for factors like substitution between goods and quality improvements, into price indices for the 200 or so overall items. Then, the price indices for the 200 items are combined into an overall Consumer Price Index. According to the Consumer Price Index website, there are eight categories used by data collectors:
::然后,消费物价指数的计算方法是将每件产品80,000美元的价格乘以其80,000美元的价格,同时使用由人们购买的产品数量决定的权重(如第1段所示),以及允许替代货物和质量改进等因素的权重,作为200个左右总项目的价格指数,然后将200个项目的价格指数并入消费物价总指数。

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The CPI and Core Inflation Index
::消费物价指数和核心通货膨胀指数

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Imagine if you were driving a company truck across the country - you probably would care about things like the prices of available roadside food and motel rooms as well as the truck’s operating condition. However, the manager of the firm might have different priorities. He would care mostly about the truck’s on-time performance and much less so about the food you were eating and the places you were staying. In other words, the company manager would be paying attention to the production of the firm, while ignoring transitory elements that impacted you, but did not affect the company’s bottom line.
::想象一下,如果你开着公司卡车到全国各地 — — 你也许会关心路边现有食品和汽车旅馆房的价格以及卡车的经营状况。 但是,公司经理可能有着不同的优先秩序。 他主要关心的是卡车的准时性能,更不用说你正在吃的食物和住的地方了。 换句话说,公司经理会关注公司的生产,同时忽视影响你的过渡性因素,但不会影响公司的底线。

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In a sense, a similar situation occurs with regard to measures of inflation. As we’ve learned, CPI measures prices as they affect everyday household spending. A core inflation index is typically calculated by taking the CPI and excluding volatile economic variables. In this way, economists have a better sense of the underlying trends in prices that affect the cost of living.
::从某种意义上说,通货膨胀衡量也出现了类似的情况。 正如我们所知道的,消费物价指数衡量价格影响日常家庭支出。 核心通胀指数通常通过消费物价指数和排除波动性经济变量来计算。 这样,经济学家对影响生活成本的价格基本趋势有了更好的了解。

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Examples of excluded variables include energy and food prices, which can jump around from month to month because of the weather. According to an article by Kent Bernhard, during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a key supply point for the nation’s gasoline was nearly knocked out. Gas prices quickly shot up across the nation, in some places increasing by up to 40 cents a gallon in one day. This was not the cause of an economic policy but rather a short-lived event until the pumps were restored in the region. In this case, the CPI that month would register the change as a cost of living event to households, but the core inflation index would remain unchanged. As a result, the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates would not be influenced. Similarly, droughts can cause world-wide spikes in food prices that, if temporary, do not affect the nation’s economic capability.
::被排除在外的变量的例子包括能源和食品价格,由于天气原因,能源和食品价格可能月月复一月地暴涨。 根据肯特·伯恩哈德的文章,2005年卡特里娜飓风期间,国家汽油的关键供应点几乎被淘汰。 天然气价格在全国迅速上涨,有些地方一天内每加仑上涨高达40美分。 这不是经济政策的原因,而是该地区水泵恢复之前的短暂事件。 在本案中,当月的消费物价指数将这一变化记为家庭生活成本,但核心通胀指数将保持不变。 结果,美联储关于利率的决定不会受到影响。 同样,干旱可能导致世界范围的粮食价格暴涨,如果是暂时的,也不会影响国家的经济能力。

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As former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke noted in 1999 about the core inflation index, “It provide(s) a better guide to monetary policy than the other indices, since it measures the more persistent underlying inflation rather than transitory influences on the price level.” Bernanke also noted that it helps communicate that every inflationary shock need not be responded to by the Federal Reserve since some price changes are transitory and not part of a structural change in the economy.
::正如美联储前主席本·伯南克1999年就核心通货膨胀指数指出的,“它比其他指数更好地指导货币政策,因为它衡量的是更持久的通货膨胀基础,而不是对价格水平的暂时影响。” 伯南克还指出,它有助于表明,由于某些价格变化是暂时性的,不是经济结构变化的一部分,因此,美联储不必对每一种通货膨胀冲击作出反应。

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In sum, both the CPI and the core inflation index are important but serve different audiences. The CPI helps households understand their overall cost of living from month to month, while the core inflation index is a preferred gauge from which to make important government policy changes.
::总而言之,消费物价指数和核心通胀指数都很重要,但为不同的受众服务。 消费物价指数帮助家庭了解每月的总体生活费用,而核心通胀指数则是政府政策重大改变的首选衡量标准。

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Video: Measuring Inflation
::视频:衡量通货膨胀

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Practical Solutions for the Substitution and the Quality/New Goods Biases
::替代和质量/新商品两法的实际解决办法

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By the early 2000s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was using alternative mathematical methods for calculating the Consumer Price Index, more complicated than just adding up the cost of a fixed basket of goods, to allow for some substitution between goods. It was also updating the basket of goods behind the CPI more frequently so that new and improved goods could be included more rapidly. For certain products, the BLS was carrying out studies to try to measure the quality improvement. For example, with computers, an economic study can try to adjust for changes in speed, memory, screen size, and other characteristics of the product, and then calculate the change in price after these product changes are taken into account. But these adjustments are inevitably imperfect, and exactly how to make these adjustments is often a source of controversy among professional economists.
::到2000年代初期,劳工统计局正在使用替代数学方法计算消费物价指数,这比将固定商品篮子的成本相加更为复杂,以允许货物之间的某种替代;它还在更频繁地更新消费物价指数背后的商品篮子,以便更快地包括新的和改良的货物;对于某些产品,BLS正在进行研究以衡量质量的提高;例如,计算机,一项经济研究可以试图适应产品的速度、记忆、屏幕尺寸和其他特点的变化,然后计算产品变化之后的价格变化。 但是,这些调整不可避免地不完美,而如何进行这些调整往往是专业经济学家之间争议的源头。

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By the early 2000s, the substitution bias and quality/new goods bias had been somewhat reduced, so that since then the rise in the CPI probably overstates the true rise in inflation by only about 0.5% per year. Over one or a few years, this is not much; over a period of a decade or two, even half of a percent per year compounds to a more significant amount. In addition, the CPI tracks prices from physical locations, and not at online sites like Amazon, where prices can be lower.
::到2000年代初期,替代偏差和质量/新商品偏差有所降低,因此,从那时起,消费物价指数的上升可能只是高估了每年通货膨胀率的真正上升约0.5%。 一年或几年的时间里,这不算多;在十年或两年的时间里,一年半的化合物含量更大。 此外,消费物价指数从实际地点追踪价格,而不是在亚马逊等价格可以降低的在线网站。

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When measuring inflation (and other economic statistics, too), a trade-off arises between simplicity and interpretation. If the inflation rate is calculated with a basket of goods that is fixed and unchanging, then the calculation of an inflation rate is straightforward, but the problems of substitution bias and quality/new goods bias will arise. However, when the basket of goods is allowed to shift and evolve to reflect substitution toward lower relative prices, quality improvements, and new goods, the technical details of calculating the inflation rate grow more complex.
::当衡量通货膨胀(和其他经济统计数据)时,简单与解释之间会产生权衡。 如果通货膨胀率用固定和不变的一篮子货物计算,那么通胀率的计算是直截了当的,但替代偏差和质量/新货物偏差的问题将会出现。 但是,当允许一篮子货物转换和演变以反映替代物向相对较低价格、质量改进和新货物的方向转变时,计算通胀率的技术细节会变得更加复杂。

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Additional Price Indices: PPI, GDP Deflator, and More
::附加价格指数:生产者价格指数、GDP减缩指数和更多

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The basket of goods behind the Consumer Price Index represents an average hypothetical U.S. household, which is to say that it does not exactly capture anyone’s personal experience. When the task is to calculate an average level of inflation, this approach works fine. What if, however, you are concerned about inflation experienced by a certain group, like the elderly, or the poor, or single-parent families with children, or Hispanic-Americans? In specific situations, a price index based on the buying power of the average consumer may not feel quite right.
::消费物价指数背后的一篮子商品代表了平均假设的美国家庭,也就是说,它并不完全能捕捉到任何人的个人经验。 当任务在于计算平均通胀水平时,这一方法就很好。 但是,如果你担心某个群体,如老年人、穷人、有子女的单亲家庭或西班牙裔美国人的通货膨胀,那么,在特定情况下,基于平均消费者购买力的价格指数可能并不合适。

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This problem has a straightforward solution. If the Consumer Price Index does not serve the desired purpose, then invent another index, based on a basket of goods appropriate for the group of interest. Indeed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a number of experimental price indices: some for particular groups like the elderly or the poor, some for different geographic areas, and some for certain broad categories of goods like food or housing.
::这个问题有一个直截了当的解决办法。 如果消费物价指数不能达到预期目的,那么根据适合利益集团的一篮子商品,再制定另一个指数。 事实上,劳动统计局公布了一系列实验物价指数:一些是针对老年人或穷人等特定群体的,有些是针对不同地理区域的,有些是针对食品或住房等某些大类商品的。

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The BLS also calculates several price indices that are not based on baskets of consumer goods. For example, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is based on prices paid for supplies and inputs by producers of goods and services. It can be broken down into price indices for different industries, commodities, and stages of processing (like finished goods, intermediate goods, crude materials for further processing, and so on). There is an International Price Index based on the prices of merchandise that is exported or imported. An Employment Cost Index measures wage inflation in the labor market. The GDP deflator, measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is a price index that includes all the components of GDP (that is, consumption plus investment plus government plus exports minus imports). Unlike the CPI, its baskets are not fixed but re-calculate what that year’s GDP would have been worth using the base-year’s prices.
::BLS还计算了若干不以消费品篮子为基础的价格指数。 比如,生产者价格指数(PPI)基于商品和服务生产者的供货和投入价格。 它可以细分为不同行业、商品和加工阶段的价格指数(如制成品、中间货物、进一步加工的原油等 ) 。 国际价格指数基于进出口商品的价格。 就业成本指数衡量劳动力市场的工资通胀。 由经济分析局测量的GDP减缩指数(GDP减缩指数)包含GDP的所有组成部分(即消费加投资加政府出口加进口减进口 ) 。 与CPI不同的是,其篮子不是固定的,而是用基准年的价格重新计算当年GDP的价值。

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What’s the best measure of inflation? If concerned with the most accurate measure of inflation, use the GDP deflator as it picks up the prices of goods and services produced. However, it is not a good measure of cost of living as it includes prices of many products not purchased by households (for example, aircraft, fire engines, factory buildings, office complexes, and bulldozers). If one wants the most accurate measure of inflation as it impacts households, use the CPI, as it only picks up prices of products purchased by households. That is why the CPI is sometimes referred to as the cost-of-living index. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics states on its website: “The ‘best’ measure of inflation for a given application depends on the intended use of the data.”
::通胀的最佳衡量标准是什么?如果关注最准确的通胀度量,那么使用GDP减缩指数来抬高所生产的商品和服务的价格。 但是,它不是衡量生活成本的好方法,因为它包括许多非家庭购买的产品的价格(例如飞机、消防车、工厂建筑、办公楼和推土机 ) 。 如果人们想要最精确的通胀度量来影响家庭,那么使用消费物价指数(CPI ) , 因为它只收集了家庭购买的产品的价格。 这就是为什么消费物价指数有时被称为生活费指数。 正如劳工统计局在其网站上所指出的 : “ 特定应用的通胀度量的`最佳 ' 取决于数据的预期使用。 ”

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Measuring price levels with a fixed basket of goods will always have two problems: the substitution bias, by which a fixed basket of goods does not allow for buying more of what is relatively less expensive and less of what is relatively more expensive; and the quality/new goods bias, by which a fixed basket cannot take into account improvements in quality and the advent of new goods. These problems can be reduced in degree—for example, by allowing the basket of goods to evolve over time—but they cannot be totally eliminated. The most commonly cited measure of inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is based on a basket of goods representing what the typical consumer buys. The Core Inflation Index further breaks down the CPI by excluding volatile economic variables. Several price indices are not based on baskets of consumer goods. The GDP deflator is based on all the components of GDP. The Producer Price Index is based on prices of supplies and inputs bought by producers of goods and services. An Employment Cost Index measures wage inflation in the labor market. An International Price Index is based on the prices of merchandise that is exported or imported.
::以固定货物篮子衡量价格水平总是有两个问题:替代偏差,固定货物篮子不允许购买更多相对较低、相对较低、相对更贵的货物;质量/新货物偏差,固定篮子不能考虑到质量的改善和新货物的到来;这些问题可以在一定程度上减少,例如,允许一篮子货物随时间变化而变化,但无法完全消除;最常用的通货膨胀衡量尺度是消费价格指数(CPI),它以代表典型消费者购买的一篮子货物为基础;核心通货膨胀指数通过排除不稳定的经济变数进一步打破消费价格指数;若干价格指数不是以消费品篮子为基础;国内总产值减缩指数以国内生产总值的所有组成部分为基础;生产者价格指数以商品和服务生产者购买的供货和投入的价格为基础;就业成本指数衡量劳动力市场的工资通胀;国际价格指数以进出口商品价格为基础。

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How the U.S. and Other Countries Experience Inflation
::美国和其他国家如何经历通货膨胀

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In the last three decades, inflation has been relatively low in the U.S. economy, with the Consumer Price Index typically rising 2% to 4% per year. Looking back over the twentieth century, there have been several periods where inflation caused the price level to rise at double-digit rates, but nothing has come close to hyperinflation.
::在过去三十年中,美国经济的通胀率一直相对较低,消费物价指数通常每年上升2%至4%。 回顾20世纪,通货膨胀曾几度导致价格水平以两位数的增长率上升,但并未接近于恶性通货膨胀。

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Historical Inflation in the U.S. Economy
::美国经济的历史通货膨胀

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2 (a) shows the level of prices in the Consumer Price Index stretching back to 1916. In this case, the base years (when the CPI is defined as 100) are set for the average level of prices that existed from 1982 to 1984. 2 (b) shows the annual percentage changes in the CPI over time, which is the inflation rate.
::2 (a) 显示消费物价指数的价格水平,可追溯到1916年,在这种情况下,基准年(消费物价指数定义为100)是1982年至1984年的平均价格水平。 2 (b) 显示消费物价指数随时间推移的年百分比变化,即通货膨胀率。

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                            U.S. Price Level and Inflation Rates since 1913
::1913年以来美国物价水平和通货膨胀率

(a) The U.S. price level rose relatively little over the first half of the twentieth century but has increased more substantially in recent decades. The upward slope of the price level was especially steep in the 1970s, which reflects the high rate of inflation in that decade. (b) Inflation during the twentieth century was highest just after World Wars I and II, and during the 1970s. Deflation—that is, negative inflation, when most prices are falling—occurred several times in the first half of the century and in 2009 as well. Inflation rates since the 1990s have been in the low single digits. (Source: 

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The first two waves of inflation are easy to characterize in historical terms: they are right after World War I and World War II. However, there are also two periods of severe negative inflation—called deflation—in the early decades of the twentieth century: one following the deep recession of 1920–21 and the other during the Great Depression of the 1930s. (Since inflation is a time when the buying power of money in terms of goods and services is reduced, deflation will be a time when the buying power of money in terms of goods and services increases.) For the period from 1900 to about 1960, the major inflations and deflations nearly balanced each other out, so the average annual rate of inflation over these years was only about 1% per year. The third wave of more severe inflation arrived in the 1970s and departed in the early 1980s.
::前两波通货膨胀从历史角度来说很容易定性:它们发生在第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之后。 但是,二十世纪初几十年还有两段严重负通货膨胀时期 — — 所谓通货紧缩 — — :一个是在1920-21年深度衰退之后的时期,另一个是在1930年代大萧条期间的时期。 (由于通货膨胀是货币在商品和服务方面的购买力下降的时期,通货紧缩将是货币在商品和服务方面的购买力增加的时期。 )大约在1900年到1960年之间,主要通货膨胀和通货紧缩几乎相互平衡,因此这些年来的平均年通货膨胀率每年只有大约1%左右。 1970年代第三波更严重的通货膨胀浪潮到1980年代初才开始。

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Times of recession or depression often seem to be times when the inflation rate is lower, as in the recession of 1920–1921, the Great Depression, the recession of 1980–1982, and the Great Recession in 2008–2009. There were a few months in 2009 that were deflationary, but not at an annual rate. Recessions are typically accompanied by higher levels of unemployment, and the total demand for goods falls, pulling the price level down. Conversely, the rate of inflation often, but not always, seems to start moving up when the economy is growing very strongly, like right after wartime or during the 1960s. The frameworks for macroeconomic analysis, developed in other chapters, will explain why recession often accompanies higher unemployment and lower inflation, while rapid economic growth often brings lower unemployment but higher inflation.
::衰退或萧条时期似乎往往是通胀率降低的时期,如1920-1921年的衰退、大萧条、1980—1982年的衰退和2008-2009年的大衰退。 2009年有几个月是通缩性的,但并不是年利率。 衰退通常伴随着高失业率,货物总需求下降,价格水平下降。 反之,通胀率往往,但并不总是开始上升,因为经济增长非常强劲,就像战时或1960年代之后。 宏观经济分析框架在其他章节中制定,将解释为何衰退往往伴随着高失业率和低通胀,而快速经济增长往往带来低失业率,但高通胀。

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Inflation around the World
::环球通货膨胀

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Around the rest of the world, the pattern of inflation has been very mixed, as can be seen in 3 which shows inflation rates over the last several decades. Many industrialized countries, not just the United States, had relatively high inflation rates in the 1970s. For example, in 1975, Japan’s inflation rate was over 8% and the inflation rate for the United Kingdom was almost 25%. In the 1980s, inflation rates came down in the United States and in Europe and have largely stayed down.
::在世界其他地方,通货膨胀的格局非常混杂,从显示过去几十年通货膨胀率的3个中可以看出这一点。 许多工业化国家,而不仅仅是美国,在1970年代的通货膨胀率相对较高。 比如,1975年,日本的通货膨胀率超过8 % , 英国的通货膨胀率几乎是25 % 。 1980年代,美国和欧洲的通货膨胀率都有所下降,并且基本保持了下降趋势。

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                       Countries with Relatively Low Inflation Rates, 1960–2012
::1960-2012年通货膨胀率相对较低的国家

This chart shows the annual percentage change in consumer prices compared with the previous year’s consumer prices in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany.

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Countries with controlled economies in the 1970s, like the Soviet Union and China, historically had very low rates of measured inflation—because prices were forbidden to rise by law, except for the cases where the government deemed a price increase to be due to quality improvements. However, these countries also had perpetual shortages of goods, since forbidding prices to rise acts like a price ceiling and creates a situation where quantity demanded often exceeds quantity supplied. As Russia and China made a transition toward more market-oriented economies, they also experienced outbursts of inflation, although the statistics for these economies should be regarded as somewhat shakier. Inflation in China averaged about 10% per year for much of the 1980s and early 1990s, although it has dropped off since then. Russia experienced hyperinflation—an outburst of high inflation—of 2,500% per year in the early 1990s, although by 2006 Russia’s consumer price inflation had dipped below 10% per year, as shown in . The closest the United States has ever gotten to hyperinflation was during the Civil War, 1860–1865, in the Confederate states.
::20世纪70年代,像苏联和中国这样的受控制经济体国家历史上的通胀率非常低 — — 因为法律禁止价格上涨,除非政府认为价格上涨是由于质量的提高。 但是,这些国家也长期缺乏货物,因为禁止价格上涨的行为就像价格上限一样,并造成需求常常超过供给量的局面。 随着俄罗斯和中国向更面向市场经济的转型,它们也经历了通货膨胀暴涨,尽管这些经济体的统计数据应该被视为略为不稳定。 1980年代和1990年代初,中国的通货膨胀率平均每年约10 % , 尽管自那以后已经下降。 俄罗斯经历了高通胀 — — 高通胀 — 在1990年代初,每年高达2500 % , 尽管到2006年,俄罗斯消费物价通胀已经下降到每年不到10 % 。 美国最接近于暴涨的时期是内战期间,即联邦各州的1860—1865年。

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                       Countries with Relatively High Inflation Rates, 1980–2012
::1980-2012年通货膨胀率相对较高的国家

These charts show the percentage change in consumer prices compared with the previous year’s consumer prices in Argentina, Brazil, China, Nigeria, and Russia. (a) Of these, Argentina, Brazil, and Russia all experienced hyperinflation at some point between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. (b) Though not as high, China and Nigeria also had high inflation rates in the mid-1990s. Even though their inflation rates have come down over the last two decades, several of these countries continue to see significant inflation rates. (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/)

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Many countries in Latin America experienced raging hyperinflation during the 1980s and early 1990s, with inflation rates often well above 100% per year. In 1990, for example, both Brazil and Argentina saw inflation climb above 2000%. Certain countries in Africa experienced extremely high rates of inflation, sometimes bordering on hyperinflation, in the 1990s. Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, had an inflation rate of 75% in 1995.
::20世纪80年代和90年代初,拉丁美洲许多国家经历了严重的恶性通货膨胀,通货膨胀率往往每年超过100 % 。 比如,1990年,巴西和阿根廷的通胀都超过了2000 % 。 某些非洲国家的通胀率极高,有时与1990年代的恶性通货膨胀相近。 1995年,人口最多的非洲国家尼日利亚的通胀率为75%。

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In the early 2000s, the problem of inflation appears to have diminished for most countries, at least in comparison to the worst times of recent decades. As we noted earlier, in recent years, the world’s worst example of hyperinflation was in Zimbabwe, where at one point the government was issuing bills with a face value of $100 trillion (in Zimbabwean dollars)—that is, the bills had $100,000,000,000,000 written on the front, but were almost worthless. In many countries, the memory of double-digit, triple-digit, and even quadruple-digit inflation is not very far in the past.
::在2000年代初期,大多数国家的通货膨胀问题似乎已经减少,至少与近几十年来最糟糕的时期相比是如此。 正如我们早些时候指出的,近年来,世界最糟糕的恶性通货膨胀案例发生在津巴布韦,津巴布韦政府曾一度发行面值为100万亿美元的账单(津巴布韦元 ) , 也就是说,帐单在最前面写了10万亿美元,但几乎毫无价值。 在许多国家,两位数、三位数甚至四位数通胀的记忆并不远。

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In the U.S. economy, the annual inflation rate in the last two decades has typically been around 2% to 4%. The periods of highest inflation in the United States in the twentieth century occurred during the years after World Wars I and II, and in the 1970s. The period of lowest inflation—actually, with deflation—was the Great Depression of the 1930s.
::在美国经济中,过去二十年的年通货膨胀率通常在2%到4%左右。 二十世纪美国最高通胀时期发生在第一次和第二次世界大战之后的几年,以及1970年代。 通货膨胀最低时期 — — 事实上是通缩时期 — — 是1930年代的大萧条。

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The Confusion Over Inflation
::通货膨胀的混乱

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Economists usually oppose high inflation, but they oppose it in a milder way than many non-economists. Robert Shiller, one of 2013’s Nobel Prize winners in economics, carried out several surveys during the 1990s about attitudes toward inflation. One of his questions asked, “Do you agree that preventing high inflation is an important national priority, as important as preventing drug abuse or preventing deterioration in the quality of our schools?” Answers were on a scale of 1–5, where 1 meant “Fully agree” and 5 meant “Completely disagree.” For the U.S. population as a whole, 52% answered “Fully agree” that preventing high inflation was a highly important national priority and just 4% said “Completely disagree.” However, among professional economists, only 18% answered “Fully agree,” while the same percentage of 18% answered “Completely disagree.”
::经济学家通常反对高通胀,但他们反对高通胀的方式比许多非经济学家要温和得多。 2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一 — — 罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)在20世纪90年代对通胀态度进行了几次调查。 他的一个问题问 : “ 你同意预防高通胀是国家重要优先事项吗? ” 答案是1-5级的,1-5级的回答是“完全同意 ” , 5级的回答是“完全不同意 ” 。 对于整个美国人口来说,52%的回答是“完全同意 ” , “ 防止高通胀是十分重要的国家优先事项,只有4 % ” 。 但是,在专业经济学家中,只有18%回答“完全同意 ” , 而同样18%的回答是“完全同意 ” 。

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The Land of Funny Money
::风趣钱财之地

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What are the economic problems caused by inflation, and why do economists often regard them with less concern than the general public? Consider a very short story: “The Land of Funny Money.”
::通货膨胀造成的经济问题是什么? 为什么经济学家往往不象一般公众那样关注这些问题? 想想一个非常短的故事:“有趣的金钱之地 ” 。

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One morning, everyone in the Land of Funny Money awakened to find that everything denominated in money had increased by 20%. The change was completely unexpected. Every price in every store was 20% higher. Paychecks were 20% higher. Interest rates were 20% higher. The amount of money, everywhere from wallets to savings accounts, was 20% larger. This overnight inflation of prices made newspaper headlines everywhere in the Land of Funny Money. But the headlines quickly disappeared, as people realized that in terms of what they could actually buy with their incomes, this inflation had no economic impact. Everyone’s pay could still buy exactly the same set of goods as it did before. Everyone’s savings were still sufficient to buy exactly the same car, vacation, or retirement that they could have bought before. Equal levels of inflation in all wages and prices ended up not mattering much at all.
::某天早上,有趣的金钱之地的每个人都觉醒,发现以货币计价的一切都增加了20 % 。 这一变化是完全出乎意料的。 每家商店的每家价格都高出20 % 。 工资率高出20 % 。 利率高出20 % 。 从钱包到储蓄账户的金额都高出20 % 。 一夜之间价格的通货膨胀在有趣的金钱之地的每个地方都成为报纸的头条新闻。 但头条迅速消失,因为人们认识到,从他们实际能够用收入购买的东西来看,这种通货膨胀不会对经济产生任何影响。 每个人的工资仍然可以购买与以前一样的一套货物。 每个人的储蓄仍然足以购买他们以前可以买到的汽车、假期或退休。 所有工资和价格的同等通胀水平最终都无关紧要。

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When the people in Robert Shiller’s surveys explained their concern about inflation, one typical reason was that they feared that as prices rose, they would not be able to afford to buy as much. In other words, people were worried because they did not live in a place like the Land of Funny Money, where all prices and wages rose simultaneously. Instead, people live here on Planet Earth, where prices might rise while wages do not rise at all, or where wages rise more slowly than prices.
::当罗伯特·希勒调查中的人解释他们对通货膨胀的关切时,一个典型的原因是他们担心随着价格的上涨,他们买不起那么多钱。 换句话说,人们担心是因为他们不住在滑稽的金钱之地,那里的所有价格和工资都同时上涨。 相反,人们居住在地球,那里的价格可能上涨,而工资却根本不上涨,或者工资比价格增长慢。

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Economists note that over most periods, the inflation level in prices is roughly similar to the inflation level in wages, and so they reason that, on average, over time, people’s economic status is not greatly changed by inflation. If all prices, wages, and interest rates adjusted automatically and immediately with inflation, as in the Land of Funny Money, then no one’s purchasing power, profits, or real loan payments would change. However, if other economic variables do not move exactly in sync with inflation, or if they adjust for inflation only after a time lag, then inflation can cause three types of problems: unintended redistributions of purchasing power, blurred price signals, and difficulties in long-term planning.
::经济学家指出,在大多数时期,物价的通胀水平大致与工资通胀水平相近,因此他们有理由认为,平均而言,随着时间的推移,人们的经济状况不会因通货膨胀而发生巨大变化。 如果所有价格、工资和利率自动和立即随通货膨胀而调整,就像在滑稽货币之地那样,那么没有人的购买力、利润或实际贷款支付会发生变化。 但是,如果其他经济变量与通胀不完全同步,或者它们只是在一段时间后才调整通货膨胀,那么通货膨胀可能会引发三类问题:购买力的意外重新分配、价格信号模糊和长期规划的困难。

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Unintended Redistributions of Purchasing Power
::采购权力的意外再分配

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Inflation can cause redistributions of purchasing power that hurt some and help others. People who are hurt by inflation include those who are holding a lot of cash, whether it is in a safe deposit box or in a cardboard box under the bed. When inflation happens, the buying power of cash is diminished. But cash is only an example of a more general problem: anyone who has financial assets invested in a way that the nominal return does not keep up with inflation will tend to suffer from inflation. For example, if a person has money in a bank account that pays 4% interest, but inflation rises to 5%, then the real rate of return for the money invested in that bank account is negative 1%.
::通货膨胀可能导致购买力的再分配,从而伤害一些人,帮助其他人。 受通货膨胀伤害的人包括持有大量现金的人,无论是在保险箱里还是在床底下的纸箱里。 当通货膨胀发生时,现金的购买力就会下降。 但现金只是更普遍问题的一个实例:任何以名义回报跟不上通货膨胀的方式投资金融资产的人都会受到通货膨胀的影响。 比如,如果某人在银行帐户里有钱支付4%的利息,但通货膨胀上升到5%,那么投资于银行帐户的钱的实际回报率为负1%。

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The problem of a good-looking nominal interest rate being transformed into an ugly-looking real interest rate can be worsened by taxes. The U.S. income tax is charged on the nominal interest received in dollar terms, without an adjustment for inflation. So, a person who invests $10,000 and receives a 5% nominal rate of interest is taxed on the $500 received—no matter whether the inflation rate is 0%, 5%, or 10%. If inflation is 0%, then the real interest rate is 5% and all $500 is a gain in buying power. But if inflation is 5%, then the real interest rate is zero and the person had no real gain—but owes income tax on the nominal gain anyway. If inflation is 10%, then the real interest rate is negative 5% and the person is actually falling behind in buying power, but would still owe taxes on the $500 in nominal gains.
::良好的名义利率被转化为丑恶真实利率的问题可能会因税收而恶化。 美国所得税是按美元名义利率收取的,不按通胀调整。 因此,投资10万美元并获得5%名义利率的人对收到的500美元征税 — — 不论通货膨胀率是0 % 、 5 % 或 10 % 。 如果通货膨胀率是0 % , 那么实际利率是5 % , 所有500美元都是购买力的收益。 但如果通胀是5 % , 那么实际利率是零,个人没有实际收益 — — 但名义收益是欠所得税的。 如果通胀是10 % , 那么实际利率是负5 % , 而实际利率是负5 % , 个人实际上在购买力方面落后,但名义收益仍欠500美元税。

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Inflation can cause unintended redistributions for wage earners, too. Wages do typically creep up with inflation over time eventually. The start of this chapter showed that average hourly wage in the U.S. economy increased from $3.23 in 1970 to $19.20 in 2012, which is an increase by a factor of almost six. Over that time period, the Consumer Price Index increased by an almost identical amount. However, increases in wages may lag behind inflation for a year or two, since wage adjustments are often somewhat sticky and occur only once or twice a year. Moreover, the extent to which wages keep up with inflation creates insecurity for workers and may involve painful, prolonged conflicts between employers and employees. If the minimum wage is adjusted for inflation only infrequently, minimum wage workers are losing purchasing power from their nominal wages, as shown in 5.
::通货膨胀也可能导致工资劳动者意外的再分配。工资通常随时间推移而逐渐增加。本章开头部分显示,美国经济的平均每小时工资从1970年的3.23美元增加到2012年的19.20美元,增长了近6倍。在此期间,消费物价指数增长了几乎相同。然而,工资增长可能落后于通货膨胀一年或两年,因为工资调整往往有些迟缓,一年只发生一次或两次。此外,工资跟得上通货膨胀给工人造成不安全感的程度,并可能引发雇主和雇员之间痛苦的长期冲突。如果最低工资仅偶尔根据通货膨胀调整,最低工资工人就会失去其名义工资的购买力,如5所示。

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                          U.S. Minimum Wage and Inflation
::美国最低工资和通货膨胀

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After adjusting for inflation, the federal minimum wage dropped more than 30 percent from 1967 to 2010, even though the nominal figure climbed from $1.40 to $7.25 per hour. Increases in the minimum wage in between 2008 and 2010 kept the decline from being worse—as it would have been if the wage had remained the same as it did from 1997 through 2007. (Sources: http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/chart.htm; http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu)
::在根据通货膨胀调整后,联邦最低工资从1967年至2010年下降了30%以上,尽管名义数字从每小时1.40美元上升至7.25美元,2008年至2010年最低工资的上升使这一下降不再恶化——如果工资与1997年至2007年保持相同,情况会更糟(资料来源:http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/chart.htm;http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymostu?)

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One sizable group of people has often received a large share of their income in a form that does not increase over time: retirees who receive a private company pension. Most pensions have traditionally been set as a fixed nominal dollar amount per year at retirement. For this reason, pensions are called “defined benefits” plans. Even if inflation is low, the combination of inflation and a fixed income can create a substantial problem over time. A person who retires on a fixed income at age 65 will find that losing just 1% to 2% of buying power per year to inflation compounds to a considerable loss of buying power after a decade or two.
::相当大一部分人往往以不随时间而增加的方式获得很大一部分收入:领取私人公司养恤金的退休人员;大多数养恤金传统上定为每年退休时的固定名义美元数额;因此,养恤金称为“固定福利”计划;即使通货膨胀率很低,通货膨胀和固定收入的结合也会在一段时间内造成重大问题;65岁退休的固定收入的人会发现,由于通货膨胀,每年仅失去1%至2%的购买力,导致十年或两年后的购买力大量丧失。

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Fortunately, pensions and other defined benefits retirement plans are increasingly rare, replaced instead by “defined contribution” plans, such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s. In these plans, the employer contributes a fixed amount to the worker’s retirement account on a regular basis (usually every pay check). The employee often contributes as well. The worker invests these funds in a wide range of investment vehicles. These plans are tax deferred, and they are portable so that if the individual takes a job with a different employer, their 401(k) comes with them. To the extent that the investments made generate real rates of return, retirees do not suffer from the inflation costs of traditional pensioners.
::幸运的是,养老金和其他固定福利退休计划越来越少见,代之以401(k)和403(b)等 " 固定缴款 " 计划。在这些计划中,雇主定期向工人退休账户缴纳固定金额(通常是每次工资检查),雇员也经常缴纳。工人将这些资金投资到广泛的投资工具中。这些计划是递延的,并且是便携式的,因此,如果个人在不同的雇主工作,他们的401(k)就随之而来。只要投资产生实际回报率,退休人员就不会受到传统养老金领取者的通胀成本的影响。

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However, ordinary people can sometimes benefit from the unintended redistributions of inflation. Consider someone who borrows $10,000 to buy a car at a fixed interest rate of 9%. If inflation is 3% at the time the loan is made, then the loan must be repaid at a real interest rate of 6%. But if inflation rises to 9%, then the real interest rate on the loan is zero. In this case, the borrower’s benefit from inflation is the lender’s loss. A borrower paying a fixed interest rate, who benefits from inflation, is just the flip side of an investor receiving a fixed interest rate, who suffers from inflation. The lesson is that when interest rates are fixed, rises in the rate of inflation tend to penalize suppliers of financial capital, who end up being repaid in dollars that are worth less because of inflation, while demanders of financial capital end up better off, because they can repay their loans in dollars that are worth less than originally expected.
::然而,普通人有时可以从通货膨胀的意外再分配中获益。 将借入10 000美元的人视为以9 % 的固定利率购买汽车的人。 如果在贷款时通胀为3 % , 那么贷款就必须以6 % 的实际利率偿还。 但如果通胀升至9 % , 那么贷款的实际利率为零。 在这种情况下,借入人从通胀中得益就是贷款人的损失。 支付固定利率的借款人,从通胀中受益,只是接受固定利率的投资者的反面,而投资者则受到通胀的打击。 教训是,利率固定时,通胀率上升往往会惩罚金融资本供应商,最终以美元偿还的金额因通货膨胀而减少,而金融资本需求者则会更有利地停止偿还,因为他们可以用低于原先预期的美元偿还贷款。

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The unintended redistributions of buying power caused by inflation may have a broader effect on society. America’s widespread acceptance of market forces rests on a perception that people’s actions have a reasonable connection to market outcomes. When inflation causes a retiree who built up a pension or invested at a fixed interest rate to suffer, however, while someone who borrowed at a fixed interest rate benefits from inflation, it is hard to believe that this outcome was deserved in any way. Similarly, when homeowners benefit from inflation because the price of their homes rises, while renters suffer because they are paying higher rent, it is hard to see any useful incentive effects. One of the reasons that inflation is so disliked by the general public is a sense that it makes economic rewards and penalties more arbitrary—and therefore likely to be perceived as unfair – even dangerous.
::通货膨胀导致的购买力意外再分配可能会对社会产生更广泛的影响。 美国对市场力量的普遍接受取决于人们的行为与市场结果有合理联系的观念。 但是,当通货膨胀导致退休者积累养老金或以固定利率投资时遭受损失时,当以固定利率借款的人从通货膨胀中获益时,很难相信这种结果有什么好处。 同样,当房主因房价上涨而从通货膨胀中获益,而租房者因支付更高的房租而受苦时,很难看到任何有用的激励效应。 通货膨胀如此受到公众厌恶的原因之一是它让经济奖赏和惩罚变得更加武断 — — 因此很可能被视为不公平 — — 甚至危险。

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Video: Horror Stories of Hyperinflation
::影片:超通胀的恐怖故事

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Is There a Connection between German Hyperinflation and Hitler's Rise to Power?
::德国超膨胀与希特勒掌权之间有联系吗?

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Germany suffered an intense hyperinflation of its currency, the Mark, in the years after World War I, when the Weimar Republic in Germany resorted to printing money to pay its bills and the onset of the Great Depression created the social turmoil that Adolf Hitler could take advantage of in his rise to power. Shiller described the connection this way in a National Bureau of Economic Research 1996 Working Paper:
::德国的货币马克(Mark)在第一次世界大战之后的几年里遭受了剧烈的恶性通货膨胀,当时德国的魏玛共和国用印刷钱支付账单,大萧条的爆发造成了社会动荡,阿道夫·希特勒在掌权时可以利用这种社会动荡。

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A fact that is probably little known to young people today, even in Germany, is that the final collapse of the Mark in 1923, the time when the Mark’s inflation reached astronomical levels (inflation of 35,974.9% in November 1923 alone, for an annual rate that month of 4.69 × 1028%), came in the same month as did Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch, his Nazi Party’s armed attempt to overthrow the German government. This failed putsch resulted in Hitler’s imprisonment, at which time he wrote his book Mein Kampf, setting forth an inspirational plan for Germany’s future, suggesting plans for world domination. . .
::当今年轻人甚至德国年轻人可能都不太了解一个事实,那就是马克在1923年最后倒闭,当时马克的通货膨胀达到天文水平(仅1923年11月就达到35,974.9%的通胀率,年通胀率为4.69×1028 % ) , 而希特勒的纳粹党武装企图推翻德国政府的比尔·霍尔·普施(Beer Hall Putsch ) 却在同一个月来到了这个月。 这一失败导致了希特勒的监禁,当时他写了他的书《梅因·坎普夫 》 ( Mein Kampf ) , 为德国的未来制定了鼓舞人心的计划,提出了世界统治的计划。

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". . . Most people in Germany today probably do not clearly remember these events; this lack of attention to it may be because its memory is blurred by the more dramatic events that succeeded it (the Nazi seizure of power and World War II). However, to someone living through these historical events in sequence . . . [the putsch] may have been remembered as vivid evidence of the potential effects of inflation."
::" .今天德国的大多数人可能都不记得这些事件;对这些事件的不注意可能是因为后来发生的更戏剧性的事件(纳粹夺取政权和第二次世界大战)模糊了德国的记忆。 然而,对于生活在这些历史事件中的人来说,可能人们记忆犹新,这是通货膨胀潜在影响的生动证据。"

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Blurred Price Signals
::模糊的价格信号

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Prices are the messengers in a market economy, conveying information about conditions of demand and supply. Inflation blurs those price messages. Inflation means that price signals are perceived more vaguely, like a radio program received with a lot of static. If the static becomes severe, it is hard to tell what is happening.
::价格是市场经济中的送信人,传达关于供需条件的信息。 通货膨胀模糊了这些价格信息。 通货膨胀意味着价格信号被更模糊地看待,就像收听到的无线电节目一样,许多静态。 如果静态变得严重,很难知道发生了什么。

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In Israel, when inflation accelerated to an annual rate of 500% in 1985, some stores stopped posting prices directly on items, since they would have had to put new labels on the items or shelves every few days to reflect inflation. Instead, a shopper just took items from a shelf and went up to the checkout register to find out the price for that day. Obviously, this situation makes comparing prices and shopping for the best deal rather difficult. When the levels and changes of prices become uncertain, businesses and individuals find it harder to react to economic signals. In a world where inflation is at a high rate, but bouncing up and down to some extent, does a higher price of a good mean that inflation has risen, or that supply of that good has decreased, or that demand for that good has increased? Should a buyer of the good take the higher prices as an economic hint to start substituting other products—or have the prices of the substitutes risen by an equal amount? Should a seller of the good take a higher price as a reason to increase production—or is the higher price only a sign of a general inflation in which the prices of all inputs to production are rising as well? The true story will presumably become clear over time, but at a given moment, who can say?
::在以色列,当1985年通胀加速到年利率500 % 时,一些商店停止直接公布物品价格,因为它们不得不每隔几天在物品或货架上贴上新的标签以反映通货膨胀;相反,一个沙子只是从架子上取货,然后到结账登记册寻找当日的价格;显然,这种情况使得价格和最佳交易的购物比较变得相当困难;当价格水平和价格变化变得不确定时,企业和个人发现很难对经济信号作出反应;在一个通货膨胀率高,但在一定程度上上下回回回回回回回的世界,高价格是否意味着通货膨胀已经上升,或者该商品的供应已经下降,或者该商品的需求已经增加?商品的买主是否应该把较高的价格作为经济提示开始替代其他产品,或者替代产品的价格以同等数额上涨?如果商品的卖主以更高的价格作为增加生产的理由,那么高价格只是普遍通货膨胀的一个迹象,那么给生产的所有投入的价格在上升,但价格却在上升?谁能够真正地说一个时刻会变成一个清楚的故事呢?

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High and variable inflation means that the incentives in the economy to adjust in response to changes in prices are weaker. Markets will adjust toward their equilibrium prices and quantities more erratically and slowly, and many individual markets will experience a greater chance of surpluses and shortages.
::高通胀和可变通胀意味着经济中因物价变化而进行调整的激励力更弱。 市场将更加不稳定和缓慢地向平衡价格和数量调整,许多单个市场将面临更大的盈余和短缺机会。

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Problems of Long-Term Planning
::长期规划问题的长期规划问题

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Inflation can make long-term planning difficult. In discussing unintended redistributions, we considered the case of someone trying to plan for retirement with a pension that is fixed in nominal terms and a high rate of inflation. Similar problems arise for all people trying to save for retirement, because they must consider what their money will really buy several decades in the future when the rate of future inflation cannot be known with certainty.
::通货膨胀可能给长期规划带来困难。 在讨论意外再分配时,我们考虑了有人试图用名义条件固定的退休金和高通胀率来计划退休的情况。 类似的问题也出现在所有试图为退休储蓄的人身上,因为他们必须考虑他们的钱在未来几十年里会真正买到什么,因为将来的通货膨胀率无法肯定地知道。

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Inflation, especially at moderate or high levels, will pose substantial planning problems for businesses, too. A firm can make money from inflation—for example, by paying bills and wages as late as possible so that it can pay in inflated dollars, while collecting revenues as soon as possible. A firm can also suffer losses from inflation, as in the case of a retail business that gets stuck holding too much cash, only to see the value of that cash eroded by inflation. But when a business spends its time focusing on how to profit by inflation, or at least how to avoid suffering from it, an inevitable tradeoff strikes: less time is spent on improving products and services or on figuring out how to make existing products and services more cheaply. An economy with high inflation rewards businesses that have found clever ways of profiting from inflation, which are not necessarily the businesses that excel at productivity, innovation, or quality of service.
::通胀,特别是中高水平的通胀,也会给企业带来严重的规划问题。 企业可以通过通胀来赚钱 — — 比如,尽可能晚地支付账单和工资,以便尽快以高涨的美元支付,同时尽快获得收入。 企业也可能遭受通胀损失,比如,零售企业持有太多现金,只能看到这些现金的价值被通胀侵蚀。 但是,当企业花时间专注于如何通过通胀获利,或者至少如何避免遭受通胀损失时,不可避免的平衡打击:更少的时间花在改善产品和服务上,或者花在如何以更廉价的方式制造现有产品和服务上。 高通胀回报企业发现从通胀中获利的聪明方式,这些企业并不一定是生产率、创新或服务质量上优秀的企业。

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In the short term, low or moderate levels of inflation may not pose an overwhelming difficulty for business planning, because costs of doing business and sales revenues may rise at similar rates. If, however, inflation varies substantially over the short or medium term, then it may make sense for businesses to stick to shorter-term strategies. The evidence as to whether relatively low rates of inflation reduce productivity is controversial among economists. There is some evidence that if inflation can be held to moderate levels of less than 3% per year, it need not prevent a nation’s real economy from growing at a healthy pace. For some countries that have experienced hyperinflation of several thousand percent per year, an annual inflation rate of 20–30% may feel basically the same as zero. However, several economists have pointed to the suggestive fact that when U.S. inflation heated up in the early 1970s—to 10%—U.S. growth in productivity slowed down, and when inflation slowed down in the 1980s, productivity edged up again not long thereafter, as shown in 6.
::短期而言,低通胀或中温通胀水平可能不会给商业规划带来极大的困难,因为商业和销售收入的成本可能以类似的速度上升。 但是,如果短期或中期内通胀差异很大,那么企业就应该坚持短期战略。 有关相对较低的通胀率是否降低生产率的证据在经济学家中是有争议的。 有一些证据表明,如果将通胀维持在低于每年3 % 的温和水平,那么它就不必阻止一个国家的实体经济以健康的速度增长。 对于一些每年经历高达数千 % 的超通胀的国家来说,20-30 % 的年通胀率可能感觉基本与零一样。 然而,一些经济学家指出,当美国1970年代初通胀上升至10 % 的美国时,生产率增长放缓,而当1980年代通胀放缓时,生产率再次回升,正如6年所显示的那样,自20—30 % 的年通胀率可能基本为零。

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                  U.S. Inflation Rate and U.S. Labor Productivity, 1961-2012
::美国的通货膨胀率和美国的劳动生产率,1961-2012年

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Over the last several decades in the United States, there have been times when rising inflation rates have been closely followed by lower productivity rates and lower inflation rates have corresponded to increasing productivity rates. As the graph shows, however, this correlation does not always exist.
::在过去几十年中,美国曾有过不断上升的通货膨胀率紧随其后的时期,生产率下降,低通货膨胀率与生产率的提高相对应。 然而,正如图表所示,这一相关性并不总是存在的。

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Any Benefits of Inflation?
::通货膨胀有什么好处吗?

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Although the economic effects of inflation are primarily negative, two countervailing points are worth noting. First, the impact of inflation will differ considerably according to whether it is creeping up slowly at 0% to 2% per year, galloping along at 10% to 20% per year, or racing to the point of hyperinflation at, say, 40% per month. Hyperinflation can rip an economy and a society apart. An annual inflation rate of 2%, 3%, or 4%, however, is a long way from a national crisis. Low inflation is also better than deflation which occurs with severe recessions.
::尽管通货膨胀的经济影响主要是负的,但有两个反向点值得注意。 首先,通货膨胀的影响将有很大的不同,因为通货膨胀是缓慢地以每年0%到2%的速度增长,每年以10%到20%的速度增长,还是以每月40%的速度飙升到恶性通货膨胀的水平。 超通胀可以将一个经济体和一个社会撕裂开来。 但是,每年2%、3%或4%的通货膨胀率与一场国家危机相去甚远。 低通胀也比严重衰退时出现的通缩要好。

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Second, an argument is sometimes made that moderate inflation may help the economy by making wages in labor markets more flexible. The discussion in pointed out that wages tend to be sticky in their downward movements and that unemployment can result. A little inflation could nibble away at real wages, and thus help real wages to decline if necessary. In this way, even if a moderate or high rate of inflation may act as sand in the gears of the economy, perhaps a low rate of inflation serves as oil for the gears of the labor market. This argument is controversial. A full analysis would have to take all the effects of inflation into account. It does, however, offer another reason to believe that, all things considered, very low rates of inflation may not be especially harmful.
::其次,有时有人会提出一个论点,认为温和的通货膨胀可以通过提高劳动力市场工资的灵活性来帮助经济。 讨论指出,工资在下行中往往会粘贴不放,而且可能会导致失业。 一点通货膨胀可以吞噬实际工资,从而在必要时帮助实际工资下降。 这样,即使温和或高通胀率可能成为经济齿轮中的沙子,低通胀率也许也成为劳动力市场轮子的石油。 这一论点是有争议的。 全面分析必须考虑到通货膨胀的所有影响。 但是,它确实提供了另一种理由,认为所有考虑过的非常低的通货膨胀率可能不会特别有害。

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Unexpected inflation will tend to hurt those whose money received, in terms of wages and interest payments, does not rise with inflation. In contrast, inflation can help those who owe money that can be paid in less valuable, inflated dollars. Low rates of inflation have relatively little economic impact over the short term. Over the medium and the long term, even low rates of inflation can complicate future planning. High rates of inflation can muddle price signals in the short term and prevent market forces from operating efficiently, and can vastly complicate long-term savings and investment decisions.
::预料之外的通货膨胀往往会伤害那些在工资和利息支付方面得到的金钱不会随着通货膨胀而上升的人。 相反,通货膨胀可以帮助那些欠钱的人用价值较低、膨胀的美元支付。 低通货膨胀率在短期内对经济的影响相对较小。 从中长期来看,即使低通货膨胀率也会使未来的规划复杂化。 高通货膨胀率短期内会打乱价格信号,阻止市场力量有效运作,并可能使长期储蓄和投资决策变得极为复杂。

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Indexing and Its Limitations
::索引编制及其局限性

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When a price, wage, or interest rate is adjusted automatically with inflation, it is said to be indexed. An indexed payment increases according to the index number that measures inflation. A wide array of indexing arrangements is observed in private markets and government programs. Since the negative effects of inflation depend in large part on having inflation unexpectedly affect one part of the economy but not another—say, increasing the prices that people pay but not the wages that workers receive—indexing will take some of the sting out of inflation.
::据说,当价格、工资或利率随着通货膨胀自动调整时,就应该指数化。根据衡量通货膨胀的指数数字,指数化的付款增加。在私人市场和政府方案中可以看到各种各样的指数化安排。由于通货膨胀的消极影响在很大程度上取决于通货膨胀意外地影响到经济的某一部分,而不是另一部分——例如,提高人们支付的价格而不是工人领取的工资——指数化将造成通货膨胀的某些压力。

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Indexing in Private Markets
::私营市场指数化

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In the 1970s and 1980s, labor unions commonly negotiated wage contracts that had cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) which guaranteed that their wages would keep up with inflation. These contracts were sometimes written as, for example, COLA plus 3%. Thus, if inflation was 5%, the wage increase would automatically be 8%, but if inflation rose to 9%, the wage increase would automatically be 12%. COLAs are a form of indexing applied to wages.
::20世纪70年代和80年代,工会通常通过谈判达成有生活费调整(COLAs)的工资合同,保证其工资与通胀相适应。 这些合同有时被写成,比如COLA+3 % 。 因此,如果通胀为5%,工资增长将自动达到8%,但如果通胀升至9%,工资增长将自动达到12%。 COLAs是工资指数化的一种形式。

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Loans often have built-in inflation adjustments, too, so that if the inflation rate rises by two percentage points, then the interest rate charged on the loan rises by two percentage points as well. An adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is a kind of loan used to purchase a home in which the interest rate varies with the rate of inflation. Often, a borrower will be able receive a lower interest rate if borrowing with an ARM, compared to a fixed-rate loan. The reason is that with an ARM, the lender is protected against the risk that higher inflation will reduce the real loan payments, and so the risk premium part of the interest rate can be correspondingly lower.
::贷款通常也有内在的通货膨胀调整,这样,如果通货膨胀率上升两个百分点,那么贷款收取的利率也会上升两个百分点。 可调整利率抵押贷款(ARM)是一种用来购买利率随通货膨胀率而变化的住房的贷款。 通常,借款人如果与ARM贷款相比,与固定利率贷款相比,与ARM贷款相比,借款人可以获得较低的利率。 其原因是,如果ARM贷款,贷款人将受到保护,以免更高的通货膨胀降低实际贷款支付额的风险,因此利率中的风险溢价部分可以相应降低。

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A number of ongoing or long-term business contracts also have provisions that prices will be adjusted automatically according to inflation. Sellers like such contracts because they are not locked into a low nominal selling price if inflation turns out higher than expected; buyers like such contracts because they are not locked into a high buying price if inflation turns out to be lower than expected. A contract with automatic adjustments for inflation in effect agrees on a real price to be paid, rather than a nominal price.
::一些现行或长期商业合同也规定价格会根据通货膨胀自动调整。 类似此类合同的卖主不会因为通货膨胀高于预期而被锁定在低名义销售价格中,因为通货膨胀率高于预期;类似合同的买主则因为通货膨胀低于预期而没有被锁定在高购买价格中。 事实上,对通货膨胀进行自动调整的合同同意支付实际价格,而不是名义价格。

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Indexing in Government Programs
::政府方案中的指数化

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Many government programs are indexed to inflation. The U.S. income tax code is designed so that as a person’s income rises above certain levels, the tax rate on the marginal income earned rises as well; this is what is meant by the expression “move into a higher tax bracket.” For example, according to the basic tax tables from the Internal Revenue Service, in 2013 a single person owed 10% of all taxable income from $0 to $8,925; 15% of all income from $8,926 to $36,250; 25% of all income from $36,251 to $87,850; 28% of all income from $87,851 to $183,250; 33% of all income from $183,251 to $398,350; 35% of all income from $398,351 to $400,000; and 39.6% on all income from $400,001 and above.
::许多政府方案都以通胀为指数。 美国所得税法的设计是,当个人收入超过某些水平时,边际收入的税率也会上升;这就是“转入更高的税级”的意思。 比如,根据国内税收局的基本税表,2013年,一个人所欠全部应税收入的10%,从0美元到8 925美元;8 926美元到36 250美元的所有收入的15%;36 251美元到87 850美元的所有收入的25%;87 851美元到183 250美元的所有收入的28%;183 251美元到398 350美元的所有收入的33%;398 351美元到400 000美元的所有收入的35%;以及400 001美元及以上所有收入的39.6%。

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Because of the many complex provisions in the rest of the tax code, the taxes owed by any individual cannot be exactly determined based on these numbers, but the numbers illustrate the basic theme that tax rates rise as the marginal dollar of income rises. Until the late 1970s, if nominal wages increased along with inflation, people were moved into higher tax brackets and owed a higher proportion of their income in taxes, even though their real income had not risen. This “bracket creep,” as it was called, was eliminated by law in 1981. Now, the income levels where higher tax rates kick in are indexed to rise automatically with inflation.
::由于税法其余部分的许多复杂规定,任何个人所欠的税款都无法根据这些数字来精确地确定,但数字表明税率随着收入的边际美元增长而上升的基本主题。 直到1970年代末,如果名义工资随通货膨胀而增加,人们会进入更高的税级,并承担其税收收入的更高比例,即使他们的实际收入没有增加。 1981年法律废除了所谓的“裂纹爬虫 ” 。 如今,高税率的收益水平随着通货膨胀而自动上升。

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The Social Security program offers two examples of indexing. Since the passage of the Social Security Indexing Act of 1972, the level of Social Security benefits increases each year along with the Consumer Price Index. Also, Social Security is funded by payroll taxes, which are imposed on the income earned up to a certain amount—$113,700 in 2013. This level of income is adjusted upward each year according to the rate of inflation, so that the indexed rise in the benefit level is accompanied by an indexed increase in the Social Security tax base.
::自1972年《社会保障指数化法》通过以来,社会保障福利水平随着消费物价指数的提高而逐年提高,此外,社会保障由工资税供资,工资税对一定数额的收入征收,2013年达到113,700美元,这一收入水平根据通货膨胀率逐年上调,因此,在补贴水平指数化增长的同时,社会保障税基的指数化增长。

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As yet another example of a government program affected by indexing, in 1996 the U.S., government began offering indexed bonds. Bonds are means by which the U.S. government (and many private-sector companies as well) borrows money; that is, investors buy the bonds, and then the government repays the money with interest. Traditionally, government bonds have paid a fixed rate of interest. This policy gave a government that had borrowed an incentive to encourage inflation, because it could then repay its past borrowing in inflated dollars at a lower real interest rate. But indexed bonds promise to pay a certain real rate of interest above whatever inflation rate occurs. In the case of a retiree trying to plan for the long term and worried about the risk of inflation, for example, indexed bonds that guarantee a rate of return higher than inflation—no matter the level of inflation—can be a very comforting investment.
::作为受指数化影响的政府方案的另一个例子,1996年,美国政府开始提供指数化债券。 债券是美国政府(以及许多私营部门公司)借钱的手段;也就是说,投资者购买债券,然后政府还利息。 传统上,政府债券已经支付了固定利率。 这项政策给一个已经借钱鼓励通胀的政府,因为这样它就可以以较低的实际利率以膨胀的美元偿还过去借款。 但是,指数化债券承诺支付比通胀率高的某种实际利率。 在退休者试图长期计划并担心通胀风险的情况下,比如,保证回报率高于通胀的指数化债券 — — 与通胀水平无关 — — 可能是非常令人安慰的投资。

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Might Indexing Reduce Concern over Inflation?
::降低对通货膨胀的担忧?

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Indexing may seem like an obviously useful step. After all, when individuals, firms, and government programs are indexed against inflation, then people can worry less about arbitrary redistributions and other effects of inflation.
::指数化似乎似乎是一个显然有用的步骤。 毕竟,当个人、公司和政府方案与通货膨胀指数化时,人们可以少担心任意的再分配和通货膨胀的其他影响。

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However, some of the fiercest opponents of inflation express grave concern about indexing. They point out that indexing is always partial. Not every employer will provide COLAs for workers. Not all companies can assume that costs and revenues will rise in lockstep with the general rates of inflation. Not all interest rates for borrowers and savers will change to match inflation exactly. But as partial inflation indexing spreads, the political opposition to inflation may diminish. After all, older people whose Social Security benefits are protected against inflation, or banks that have loaned their money with adjustable-rate loans, no longer have as much reason to care whether inflation heats up. In a world where some people are indexed against inflation and some are not, financially savvy businesses and investors may seek out ways to be protected against inflation, while the financially unsophisticated and small businesses may suffer from it most.
::然而,一些最强烈的通货膨胀反对者对指数化表示严重关切。他们指出,指数化总是片面的。并不是每个雇主都会为工人提供COLA。并非所有公司都能假定成本和收入会随着总体通货膨胀率而上升。 并非所有借款人和储蓄者的利率都会完全改变以适应通胀。 但是,随着部分通胀指数化的扩大,反对通胀的政治反对可能会减少。 毕竟,那些社会保障福利不受通胀影响的老年人,或者那些以可调整利率贷款借钱的银行,不再有同样的理由去担心通胀是否上升。 在一些人与通胀指数挂钩,而有些人与通胀指数化无关的世界上,金融上贪婪的企业和投资者可能会寻求防止通胀的方法,而金融上不精致的小企业可能因此受害最大。

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A Preview of Policy Discussions of Inflation
::通货膨胀政策讨论预览

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This chapter has focused on how inflation is measured, historical experience with inflation, how to adjust nominal variables into real ones, how inflation affects the economy, and how indexing works. The causes of inflation have barely been hinted at, and government policies to deal with inflation have not been addressed at all. These issues will be taken up in depth in other chapters. However, it is useful to offer a preview here.
::本章侧重于如何衡量通货膨胀、通货膨胀的历史经验、如何将名义变数调整为实际变数、通货膨胀如何影响经济、指数化如何发挥作用。 通货膨胀的原因几乎没有被暗示,而政府应对通货膨胀的政策根本没有得到解决。 这些问题将在其他章节中深入探讨。 但是,在此提供一个预览是有用的。

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The cause of inflation can be summed up in one sentence: Too many dollars chasing too few goods. The great surges of inflation early in the twentieth century came after wars, which are a time when government spending is very high, but consumers have little to buy, because production is going to the war effort. Governments also commonly impose price controls during wartime. After the war, the price controls end and pent-up buying power surges forth, driving up inflation. On the other hand, if too few dollars are chasing too many goods, then inflation will decline or even turn into deflation. Therefore, slowdowns in economic activity, as in major recessions and the Great Depression, are typically associated with a reduction in inflation or even outright deflation.
::通货膨胀的原因可以归纳为一句话:太多美元追求太多商品。 二十世纪初的通货膨胀大涨发生在战争之后,当时政府开支非常高,但消费者却买不起,因为生产要投入战争努力。 战争期间,政府也通常实行价格控制。战后,价格控制结束,购买力被压倒,导致通货膨胀上升。 另一方面,如果美元太少追求太多商品,那么通货膨胀就会下降,甚至演变成通缩。 因此,经济活动的放缓,如重大衰退和大萧条,通常与通胀甚至直线通缩的下降相关联。

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The policy implications are clear. If inflation is to be avoided, the amount of purchasing power in the economy must grow at roughly the same rate as the production of goods. Macroeconomic policies that the government can use to affect the amount of purchasing power—through taxes, spending, and regulation of interest rates and credit—can thus cause inflation to rise or reduce inflation to lower levels.
::政策影响是显而易见的,如果要避免通货膨胀,经济的购买力必须按与货物生产大致相同的速度增长。 政府可以用来影响购买力的宏观经济政策 — — 通过税收、支出、利率和信贷的监管 — — 因而导致通货膨胀上升或降低通货膨胀率。

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A payment is said to be indexed if it is automatically adjusted for inflation. Examples of indexing in the private sector include wage contracts with cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) and loan agreements like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Examples of indexing in the public sector include tax brackets and Social Security payments.
::私营部门指数化的例子包括生活费调整工资合同和贷款协议,如可调整利率抵押贷款,公共部门指数化的例子包括税额和社会保障付款。

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Self Check Questions
::自查问题

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1. What is the definition of inflation? How is inflation measured?
::1. 通货膨胀的定义是什么?如何衡量通货膨胀?

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2. What is deflation?
::2. 什么是通货紧缩?

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3. What are the three levels of inflation? What is creeping inflation?
::3. 三种水平的通货膨胀是多少?什么是逐渐上升的通货膨胀?

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4. Give a historical example of hyperinflation.
::4. 举一个恶性通货膨胀的历史例子。

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5. What are 3 possible causes of inflation?
::5. 通货膨胀的三种可能原因是什么?

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6. What are some consequences of inflation?
::6. 通货膨胀有哪些后果?