12.3 实验概率
Section outline
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Jackson has just been told by his football coach that he will be the starting kicker in this week's football game, meaning the team will be depending on him to kick the field goals. Jackson wants a little reassurance before the game that he will have a successful first starting game. He decides to count the number of successful field goals he kicks. Out of 20 tries, he kicks 16 field goals and misses 4 times. What is the experimental probability that Jackson will kick a field goal during the game?
::杰克逊刚刚从足球教练那里得知,他将在本周的足球比赛中成为踢球手,意思是球队将依靠他踢球。杰克逊希望在比赛开始前有一个小的保证,即他将有一个成功的首次比赛。他决定计算他踢球的成功球数。在20次比赛中,他踢了16个球,错过了4次。杰克逊在比赛中踢球的实验概率是多少?In this concept, you will learn about experimental probability.
::在这个概念中,你会了解实验概率。Experimental Probability
::实验概率Probability is based on simple facts. For example, since there are two sides of a coin, heads and tails, and each side has an equal chance of turning up, it makes sense to say the probability of heads turning up is 50 percent, or 1 out of 2.
::概率基于简单的事实。例如,由于硬币的两面、头和尾都有,而且每方都有相同的机会出现,因此可以认为头出现的可能性是50%,即2分之一。However, making sense and being true are often two different things. It may make sense to say the probability of heads is 50 percent, but does a real coin in the real world actually turn up heads 50 percent of the time? To answer that question, you need to learn about empirical probability , also called experimental probability . Experimental probability is probability based on doing actual experiments – flipping coins, spinning spinners, picking ping pong balls out of a jar, and so on.
::然而,理性和真实往往是两种不同的事物。 说头的概率是50%,这或许是有道理的,但现实世界中真正的硬币是否真的在50%的时间里抬头? 回答这个问题,你需要了解经验概率,也称为实验概率。 实验概率是基于实际实验的概率 — — 翻硬币、旋转旋键、从罐子里挑选乒乓球等等。To compute the experimental probability of the spinner landing on the red section you would need to conduct an experiment . Suppose you were to spin the spinner 60 times.
::要计算在红色区段着陆的旋转器实验概率, 您需要进行实验。 假设您要旋转旋转器60倍 。Favorable outcomes : red
::有利结果:红色Total outcomes : 60 spins
::总结果:60个旋转
::实验概率_: P(red) = 有利结果 总计结果= 重整总旋转数的数目Now you can use this data to conduct an experiment.
::现在您可以使用这些数据进行实验。What is the experimental probability of having the arrow of the spinner land in the red section?
::将旋轴箭头放在红区中的实验概率是多少?Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total red favorable outcomes 2 3 1 5 2 4 17 total spins total outcomes 10 10 10 10 10 10 60 experimental probability: ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes 17:60 Solve the problem by spinning the spinner 60 times in 6 trials of 10 spins each as shown in the table above. Then follow the steps below.
::如上表所示,在6次试验中将旋转器旋转60次,每次10个旋转,从而解决问题。然后采取以下步骤。First, total up the number of favorable outcomes – the number of times the spinner landed on red. This is shown in red in the final column of the table as 17.
::首先,将有利结果的总数加在一起 — — 旋转器在红色上着陆的次数。在表格最后一列以红色显示为17。Next, add up the number of total outcomes – the total number of spins. This is shown in red in the final column of the table as 60.
::其次,加起来总结果的数量 — — 旋转的总数。表格最后一栏以红色显示为60。Then, compute the experimental probability – the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes in percent form. The experimental probability, in ratio form, is 17:60. Convert to a percentage:
::然后,用百分比形式计算实验概率 — — 有利结果与总结果的比例。 以比率形式计算,实验概率为17:60。 转换成百分比:= 28%
The answer is the experimental probability of favorable outcomes to total outcomes is 28%.
::答案是,实验性结果的有利结果对总结果的概率是28%。A number cube was rolled in a probability experiment 40 times. The results are shown in the table. Compute the experimental probability of rolling a 5.
::一个数字立方体在一个概率实验中滚动了40次。结果在表格中显示。计算一个5的滚动实验概率。Dots on number cube Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 number of times cube landed total from tally 6 4 9 8 6 7 40 favorable outcomes 6 6 experimental probability: ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes 6:40 = 3:20 First, add up the tallies to get the number of total number of outcomes. This is recorded as 40 in the fifth row of the table.
::首先,加起来计数以获得结果总数。在表格第五行记录为40。Next, find the number of favorable outcomes – the number of times the number cube landed on 5. This is recorded as 6 in the sixth row of the table.
::接下来,找到有利结果的数量 — — 5号的立方体着陆数的倍数。 这在表格第六行记录为 6 。Then compute the experimental probability by finding the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes, making sure to simplify if possible: 6:40 = 3:20
::然后通过找出有利结果与总结果之比来计算实验概率,确保尽可能简化:6:40=3:20Then answer is the experimental probability of rolling a 5 a 3:20 ratio.
::然后回答是实验性概率 滚动5比3: 20的比例。Most probability experiments are conducted as a process of testing a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a statement that you want to test to see if it’s true.
::多数概率实验是作为一种测试假设的过程进行的。 假设是一种声明,你想测试它是否真实。Here are some examples of hypotheses.
::以下是一些假设的例子。-
A flipped coin comes up heads 50 percent of the time. True or false?
::翻硬币50%的时间 都浮出头来,真的还是假的? -
A number cube will land on
three
th of the time. True or false?
::数字立方体会降落在三十六度时方位,是真实的还是假的? -
It rains more on the weekend than it does on weekdays. True or false?
::周末的雨量比工作日的雨量多,是真实的还是假的? -
You perform better on math tests when you get a good night’s sleep. True or false?
::在晚上睡好觉时,数学测试效果更好。是真实的还是虚假的?
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A flipped coin will land on heads
, or 50 percent of the time. True or false?
::翻硬币会落到头上 12个,或50%的时间。真的还是假的?
To compute the experimental probability of the hypothesis you would need to conduct an experiment. Suppose you were to flip the coin 50 times. To find out how often it lands on heads, follow the steps below.
::要计算假设的实验概率,你需要进行实验。假设你翻了50次硬币。要知道它头部的落地频率,请遵循下面的步骤。First, state your hypothesis including the theoretical probability and make a prediction.
::首先 陈述你的假设 包括理论概率 并做出预测Hypothesis: The coin will land on heads , or 50 percent of the time.
::假设:硬币将降落在12头, 或50%的时间。Use the theoretical probability to make a prediction. Since there are 2 different outcomes, and 1 of those outcomes is heads, it make sense to predict that heads will come up 1 out of 2, or 50 percent of the time.
::使用理论概率进行预测。 因为有两个不同的结果, 其中有一个是头, 因此预测头部会上升百分之二, 也就是百分之五十。
::P(头)=有利结果 总结果=12 = 预测:头=50%Next, conduct an experiment and collect data. You can use a tally table like the one shown below. Fill in your predicted values and tally as you conduct the experiment.
::下一步,进行实验并收集数据。您可以使用下面显示的计数表。在进行实验时填写预测值和计数。Trial 1 2 3 4 5 Prediction Total tally heads 4 5 3 6 5 25 23 total
::共计共计共计flips
::翻翻10 10 10 10 10 50 50 Then, analyze your data and see how well it agrees with your prediction. You can see that 23 out of 50 flips came up heads. The data does not perfectly agree with the prediction, but 23 is close to 25. So the results are fairly close to the prediction. In general, the more total outcomes included in the experiment, the more likely the experimental probability will agree with the predicted probability.
::然后,分析你的数据,看看它与你的预测有多一致。你可以看到,50个翻转中,23个出现头顶。数据并不完全与预测一致,但23个数据接近25个。因此,结果与预测相当接近。一般来说,实验中包含的总结果越多,实验概率就越有可能与预测概率一致。The answer is the prediction is 50% and the experimental probability is
::答案是预测值是50% 实验概率是.
Examples
::实例Example 1
::例1Earlier, you were given a problem about Jackson's experiment to predict the probability of him kicking a field goal during his football game.
::早些时候,有人给了你一个问题 杰克逊的实验 来预测他在足球比赛中 踢球球的概率。He kicked the ball 20 times. He kicked 16 field goals and missed 4 times. What is the experimental probability that Jackson will kick a field goal during the game?
::他踢球20次,踢球16次,踢球4次。杰克逊在比赛中踢球的实验概率有多大?First, determine the number of successful outcomes:
::首先,确定成功结果的数量:Jackson succeeded in kicking 16 field goals. There are 16 successful outcomes.
::杰克逊成功踢出16个球场目标。有16个成功的结果。Next, detemine the total number of attempts (trials attempted):
::其次,清除未遂的总数(审判未遂):Jackson attempted to kick a field goal 20 times. There are 20 trials attempted.
::杰克逊试图踢球20次,有20次尝试Then, create a ratio from the data and convert to a percent:
::然后,从数据中设定一个比率,然后转换成百分比:
::概率=成功的结果实验 16:20=1620162020=0.8=80% 答案是杰克逊在足球赛中踢球的实验概率是80%Example 2
::例2Use the table to compute the experimental probability of the arrow in the spinner landing on yellow and record your answer as a percentage.
::使用表格计算旋转器箭头在黄色上着陆的实验概率,并将回答记录为百分比。Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total number of times arrow landed on yellow 4 2 3 1 2 5 total number of spins 10 10 10 10 10 10 experimental probability First, calculate the total attempts:
::首先,计算总尝试数 :There were 6 x 10 total attempts to have the spinner land on yellow.
::总共有6 x 10次试图将脊椎地放在黄色上。Next, calculate the number of attempts that landed on yellow:
::接下来,计算降落在黄色上的尝试次数 :If you add up each success out of 10 we have: 4 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 2 + 5 = 17
::如果把10个成功国家中的每个成功国家加在一起,我们就有:4+2+3+3+1+2+2+5=17Then, record the results as a ratio and convert to a percent.
::然后,将结果记录为一个比率,然后转换成百分之一。The answer is the experimental probability of the spinner landing on yellow is 28% of the time.
::答案是旋转器在黄色上着陆的实验概率 是28%的时间。Use the below information the answer the questions that follow:
::使用以下信息回答下列问题:Jennifer attempted to juggle three pins for five minutes. She made five attempts and dropped a club twice.
::Jennifer试图在5分钟的时间里玩3个针。她做了5次尝试,把俱乐部扔了2次。Example 3
::例3Write a probability that shows successful attempts.
::写一个显示成功尝试的概率 。First, determine the number of successful attempts (favorable outcomes):
::首先,确定成功尝试的数目(有利结果):The number of successful attempts is 3.
::成功尝试次数为3次。Next, determine the total number of attempts (total outomes):
::其次,确定尝试的总数(总数):The total number of attempts is 5.
::企图总数为5次。Then, create a ratio out of the data: 3:5
::然后,从数据中得出一个比率:3:5。The answer is the probability of successful attempts is 3:5.
::答案是成功尝试的概率是3: 5。Example 4
::例4Write a probability that shows drops.
::写出显示下降的概率 。First, determine the number of successful attempts (favorable outcomes):
::首先,确定成功尝试的数目(有利结果):If the number of successful attempts is 3 out of a total of 5 total attempts, then there were 2 drops.
::如果在总共5次尝试中,成功次数为3次,则下降2次。Next, determine the total number of attempts (total outomes):
::其次,确定尝试的总数(总数):The total number of attempts is 5.
::企图总数为5次。Then, create a ratio out of the data: 2:5
::然后,从数据中设定一个比率:2: 5。The answer is the probability of drops is 2:5.
::答案是下降的概率是2: 5。Example 5
::例5What is the percent of success?
::成功率是多少?First, convert the ratio into a fraction: 3:5 = 3/5
::首先,将比率转换成分数:3:5=3/5Next, divide the numerator by the denominator:
::下一步,将分子除以分母 :Then, convert the decimal value into a percentage: 0.60 = 60%
::然后,将小数点值转换成百分比:0.60=60%The answer is the probability of successful attempts is 60%.
::答案是成功尝试的概率是60%。Review
::回顾Use what you have learned about experimental probability to complete each problem.
::使用您所学的实验概率来完成每个问题 。Use the table to compute the experimental probability of the arrow in the spinner landing on yellow.
::使用表格计算旋转器箭头在黄色上着陆的实验概率。Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total number of times arrow landed on yellow 4 2 3 1 2 5 total number of spins 10 10 10 10 10 10 experimental probability -
If the event is having the spinner land on yellow, how many total favorable outcomes were observed in this experiment?
::如果事件是在黄色上摆着旋转杆, 在这次实验中观察到了多少完全有利的结果? -
How many total outcomes were there in the experiment?
::实验中有多少总结果? -
What was the experimental probability of the arrow landing on yellow across all trials? (Round to the nearest tenths place)
::在所有试验中箭头降落在黄色上的实验概率是多少? (接近最近的十分之一)
Use the table to compute the experimental probability of the arrow in the spinner above landing on blue or green.
::使用表格来计算箭头在旋转器上方降落在蓝色或绿色上的实验概率。Trial 1 2 3 4 5 Total number of times arrow landed on blue or green 4 5 6 5 4 total spins 10 10 10 10 10 experimental probability -
If the event is having the spinner land on blue or green, how many total favorable outcomes were observed in this experiment?
::如果该活动是将旋翼土地放在蓝色或绿色上,在这个实验中观察到了多少完全有利的结果? -
How many total outcomes were there in the experiment?
::实验中有多少总结果? -
What was the experimental probability of the arrow landing on blue or green across all trials?
::在所有试验中箭头降落在蓝色或绿色上的实验概率是多少?
Use the table to compute the experimental probability of the arrow landing on any color but blue.
::使用表格计算箭头降落在除蓝色以外的任何颜色上的实验概率。Trial 1 2 3 4 5 Total number of times arrow landed on any color but blue 15 17 14 16 16 total spins 20 20 20 20 20 experimental probability -
If the event is having the spinner not landing on blue, how many total favorable outcomes were observed in this experiment?
::如果事件是旋转器没有降落在蓝色上, 在这个实验中观察到了多少完全有利的结果? -
How many total outcomes were there in the experiment?
::实验中有多少总结果? -
What was the experimental probability of the arrow not landing on blue across all trials?
::在所有试验中箭头没有降落在蓝色上的实验概率是多少?
A number cube was rolled in a probability experiment 40 times. The results are shown in the table. Compute the experimental probability of rolling a 2.
::一个数字立方体在概率实验中滚动了40次。结果在表格中显示。计算滚动一个 2 的实验概率。Dots on number cube Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 number of times cube landed total from tally 9 8 6 7 6 4 favorable outcomes experimental probability -
If the event is rolling a 2, how many total favorable outcomes were observed in this experiment?
::如果这个活动是滚动2, 在这个实验中观察到了多少 完全有利的结果? -
How many total outcomes were there in the experiment?
::实验中有多少总结果? -
What was the experimental probability of rolling a 2 across all trials?
::在所有试验中滚动一个2的实验概率是多少?
A number cube was rolled in a probability experiment 50 times. The results are shown in the table. Compute the experimental probability of rolling a 3 or a 4.
::一个数字立方体在概率实验中滚动了50次。结果在表格中显示。计算一个3或一个4滚动的实验概率。Dots on number cube Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 number of times cube landed total from tally 10 6 9 7 11 7 favorable outcomes 9 7 experimental probability -
If the event is rolling a 3 or a 4, how many total favorable outcomes were observed in this experiment?
::如果活动是滚动3或4, 在这次实验中观察到了多少完全有利的结果? -
How many total outcomes were there in the experiment?
::实验中有多少总结果? -
What was the experimental probability of rolling a 3 or a 4 across all trials?
::在所有试验中滚动3或4的实验概率是多少?
Review (Answers)
::回顾(答复)Click to see the answer key or go to the Table of Contents and click on the Answer Key under the 'Other Versions' option.
::单击可查看答题键, 或转到目录中, 单击“ 其他版本” 选项下的答题键 。Resources
::资源 -
A flipped coin comes up heads 50 percent of the time. True or false?