2.6 贸易赤字和汇率
Section outline
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Trade Deficits & Exchange Rates
::贸易赤字和汇率Since GDP is measured in a country’s currency, in order to compare different countries’ GDPs, we need to convert them to a common currency. One way to do that is with the exchange rate, which is the price of one country’s currency in terms of another. Once GDPs are expressed in a common currency, we can compare each country’s GDP per capita by dividing GDP by population. Countries with large populations often have large GDPs, but GDP alone can be a misleading indicator of the wealth of a nation. A better measure is GDP per capita.
::由于GDP是以一个国家的货币衡量的,为了比较不同国家的GDP,我们需要把它们转换成一种共同货币。 一种方法就是汇率,即一国货币以另一个货币计算的价格。 一旦GDP以共同货币表示,我们就能用人口来将每个国家的人均GDP除以人口来比较。 人口众多的国家往往拥有大量的GDP,但单是GDP就有可能误导一个国家的财富。 更好的衡量标准是人均GDP。The trade balance measures the gap between a country’s exports and its imports. In most high-income economies, goods make up less than half of a country’s total production, while services compose more than half. The last two decades have seen a surge in international trade in services; however, the most global trade still takes the form of goods rather than services. The current account balance includes the trade in goods, services, and money flowing into and out of a country from investments and unilateral transfers.
::贸易平衡衡量一国出口与进口之间的差距。 在大多数高收入经济体中,商品占国家总产量的不到一半,而服务业则占一半以上。 在过去二十年中,国际服务贸易激增;然而,最全球贸易仍然以商品而不是服务的形式出现。 经常账户平衡包括货物、服务贸易以及投资和单边转移流入和流出一个国家的资金。Universal Generalizations
::普遍化-
A long lasting trade deficit affects the value of a nation's currency.
::长期的贸易赤字影响到一国货币的价值。 -
All countries engage in some kind of trade with other nations.
::所有国家都与其他国家进行某种贸易。
Guiding Questions
::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问-
How is foreign exchange used in trade?
::外汇如何用于贸易? -
How does a weak American dollar affect you the consumer? A strong dollar?
::疲软的美元对消费者有什么影响?
Comparing GDP among Countries
::国与国之间的国内生产总值比较It is common to use GDP as a measure of economic welfare or standard of living in a nation. When comparing the GDP of different nations for this purpose, two issues immediately arise. First, the GDP of a country is measured in its own currency: the United States uses the U.S. dollar; Canada, the Canadian dollar; most countries of Western Europe, the euro; Japan, the yen; Mexico, the peso; and so on. Since countries use their own currencies , comparing GDP between two countries requires converting to a common currency. A second issue is that countries have very different numbers of people. For instance, the United States has a much larger economy than Mexico or Canada, but it also has roughly three times as many people as Mexico and nine times as many people as Canada. So, if we are trying to compare standards of living across countries, we need to divide GDP by population.
::将国内生产总值作为衡量一国经济福利或生活水平的尺度是常见的。 当为此目的比较不同国家的GDP时,立即出现两个问题。 首先,一个国家的GDP以本国货币衡量:美国使用美元;加拿大使用加拿大美元;西欧大多数国家使用欧元;日本使用日元;墨西哥使用比索等。 由于各国使用自己的货币,将两个国家的GDP进行比较需要转换为共同货币。 第二个问题是,国家的人口数量非常不同。 比如,美国的经济规模比墨西哥或加拿大大得多,但它也有大约三倍的墨西哥人和九倍的加拿大人。 因此,如果我们试图将各国的生活水平作比较,我们需要按人口来区分GDP。Converting Currencies with Exchange Rates
::以汇率转换货币To compare the GDP of countries with different currencies, it is necessary to convert to a “common denominator” using an exchange rate, which is the value of one currency in terms of another currency. Exchange rates are expressed either as the units of country A’s currency that needs to be traded for a single unit of country B’s currency (for example, Japanese yen per British pound), or as the inverse (for example, British pounds per Japanese yen). Two types of exchange rates can be used for this purpose, market exchange rates and purchasing power parity (PPP) equivalent exchange rates. Market exchange rates vary on a day-to-day basis depending on supply and demand in foreign exchange markets. PPP-equivalent exchange rates provide a longer run measure of the exchange rate. For this reason, PPP-equivalent exchange rates are typically used for cross-country comparisons of GDP.
::为了比较使用不同货币的国家的国内生产总值,有必要使用一种汇率(即一种货币以另一种货币计算的价值)转换成一种“共同分母 ” 。 汇率的表示方式要么是A国的货币单位,需要用B国的单一货币单位进行交易(例如,每英磅日元),要么是反之(例如,每日日元英镑 ) 。 为此目的,可以使用两种汇率,即市场汇率和购买力平价等值的汇率。 市场汇率根据外汇市场的供求情况而依日不同而异。 购买力平价等值汇率是衡量汇率的长期尺度。 因此,购买力平价等值汇率通常用于对国内生产总值进行跨国比较。Converting GDP to a Common Currency
::将国内生产总值转换成共同货币Using the exchange rate to convert GDP from one currency to another is straightforward. Say that the task is to compare Brazil’s GDP in 2012 of 4,403 billion reals with the U.S. GDP of $16,245 trillion for the same year.
::使用汇率将GDP从一种货币转换为另一种货币是直截了当的。 这么说,我们的任务是将2012年巴西4,403亿实际GDP与美国当年的16,245万亿美元GDP相比较。Step 1 . Determine the exchange rate for the specified year. In 2012, the exchange rate was 1.869 reals = $1. (These numbers are realistic, but rounded off to simplify the calculations.)
::步骤1. 确定指定年份的汇率:2012年的汇率为1.869实值=1美元。 (这些数字切合实际,但四舍五入,以简化计算。 )Step 2. Convert Brazil’s GDP into U.S. dollars:
::步骤2. 将巴西国内生产总值换算成美元:Brazil's GDP in $ U.S. = Brazil's GDP in reals
::巴西以美元计算的国内生产总值 = 巴西以实值计算的国内生产总值Exchange rate (reals/$ U.S.) = 4,403 billion reals
::汇率(实际/美元)=4 403亿实际1.869 reals per $ U.S. = $2,355.8 billion
::1.869美元/美国1 869美元=23 558亿美元Step 3. Compare this value to the GDP in the United States in the same year. The U.S. GDP was $16,245 in 2012 which is nearly seven times that of GDP in Brazil in 2012.
::步骤3. 与同年美国国内生产总值相比,2012年美国国内生产总值为16 245美元,是2012年巴西国内生产总值的近七倍。Step 4 . View which shows the size of and variety of GDPs of different countries in 2012, all expressed in U.S. dollars. Each is calculated using the process explained above.
::4. 显示2012年不同国家国内生产总值规模和种类的视角,全部以美元表示,每个单位使用上述流程计算。Country
::国家GDP in Billions of Domestic Currency
::国内生产总值(GDP) 10亿国内货币Domestic Currency/U.S. Dollars(PPP Equivalent)
::国内货币/美元(购买力平价等值)GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars)
:单位:10亿美元)
Brazil
::巴西 巴西4,403
reals
::实际数1.869
2,356
Canada
::加拿大 加拿大 加拿大1,818
dollars
::美元1.221
1,488
China
::中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国51,932
yuan
::人民币4.186
12,406
Egypt
::埃及 埃及 埃及 埃及 埃及1,542
pounds
::磅2.856
540
Germany
::德国 德国2,644
euros
::欧元0.827
3,197
India
::印度 印度 印度97,514
rupees
::卢比20.817
4,684
Japan
::日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本475,868
yen
::日圆102.826
4,628
Mexico
::墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥15,502
pesos
::比索8.813
1,759
South Korea
::南韩1,302,128
won
::韩 元数806.81
1,614
United Kingdom
::联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国1,539
pounds
::磅0.659
2,336
United States
::美国 美国 美国 美国16,245
dollars
::美元1.000
16,245
Comparing GDPs Across Countries, 2012(Source: )
GDP Per Capita
::人均国内生产总值The U.S. economy has the largest GDP in the world, by a considerable amount. The United States is also a populous country; in fact, it is the third largest country by population in the world, although well behind China and India. So is the U.S. economy larger than other countries just because the United States has more people than most other countries, or because the U.S. economy is actually larger on a per-person basis? This question can be answered by calculating a country’s GDP per capita; that is, the GDP divided by the population.
::美国经济拥有世界上最大的GDP,其数量相当可观。 美国也是一个人口众多的国家;事实上,它是世界上人口第三大的国家,尽管远远落后于中国和印度。 美国经济也比其他国家大,仅仅因为美国比大多数其他国家人口多,或者因为美国经济实际人均规模较大? 这个问题可以通过计算一个国家的人均GDP来解答,也就是说,GDP除以人口。GDP per capita = GDP/population
::人均国内总产值=国内总产值/人口The second column of lists the GDP of the same selection of countries that appeared in the previous and , showing their GDP as converted into U.S. dollars (which is the same as the last column of the previous table). The third column gives the population for each country. The fourth column lists the GDP per capita. GDP per capita is obtained in two steps: First, by dividing column two (GDP, in billions of dollars) by 1000 so it has the same units as column three (Population, in millions). Then dividing the result (GDP in millions of dollars) by column three (Population, in millions).
::第二栏列出上列所列相同选定国家的国内总产值,并显示其国内总产值换算成美元(与上表最后一栏相同)第三栏列出每个国家的人口。第四栏列出人均国内总产值。人均国内总产值分两步获得:第一,将第二栏(国内总产值,以10亿美元计)除以1 000,因此其单位与第三栏(人口,以百万计)相同。然后将结果(国内总产值,以百万美元计)除以第三栏(人口,以百万计)。Country
::国家GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars)
:Population (in millions)
::人口(百万)Per Capita GDP (in U.S. dollars)
::人均国内生产总值(单位:美元)Brazil
::巴西 巴西2,356
198.36
11,875
Canada
::加拿大 加拿大 加拿大1,488
34.83
42,734
China
::中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国12,406
1354.04
9,162
Egypt
::埃及 埃及 埃及 埃及 埃及540
82.50
6,545
Germany
::德国 德国3,197
81.90
39,028
India
::印度 印度 印度4,684
1223.17
3,830
Japan
::日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本4,628
127.61
36,266
Mexico
::墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥1,614
50.01
32,272
South Korea
::南韩1,759
114.87
15,312
United Kingdom
::联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国2,336
63.24
36,941
United States
::美国 美国 美国 美国16,245
314.18
51,706
GDP Per Capita, 2012 (Source: )
::2012年人均国内总产值(资料来源: )Notice that the ranking by GDP is different from the ranking by GDP per capita. India has a somewhat larger GDP than Germany, but on a per capita basis, Germany has more than 10 times India’s standard of living. Will China soon have a better standard of living than the U.S.? Read the following Clear It Up feature to find out.
::注意GDP的排名与人均GDP的排名不同。 印度的GDP比德国大一些,但按人均计算,德国的生活水平是印度的10倍以上。 中国的生活水平是否会很快比美国更好? 阅读下面的 Clear It Up 特征以了解。Since GDP is measured in a country’s currency, in order to compare different countries’ GDPs, we need to convert them to a common currency. One way to do that is with the exchange rate, which is the price of one country’s currency in terms of another. Once GDPs are expressed in a common currency, we can compare each country’s GDP per capita by dividing GDP by population. Countries with large populations often have large GDPs, but GDP alone can be a misleading indicator of the wealth of a nation. A better measure is GDP per capita.
::由于GDP是以一个国家的货币衡量的,为了比较不同国家的GDP,我们需要把它们转换成一种共同货币。 一种方法就是汇率,即一国货币以另一个货币计算的价格。 一旦GDP以共同货币表示,我们就能用人口来将每个国家的人均GDP除以人口来比较。 人口众多的国家往往拥有大量的GDP,但单是GDP就有可能误导一个国家的财富。 更好的衡量标准是人均GDP。International Trade and Capital Flows
::国际贸易和资本流动A World of Money
::货币世界
More than Meets the Eye in the Congo
::比在刚果遇到的眼还多How much do you interact with the global financial system? If you think that you personally don't interact much with the global financial system, t hink again. Suppose you take out a student loan, or you deposit money into your bank account. You just affected domestic savings and borrowing. Now say you are at the mall and buy two T-shirts “made in China,” and later contribute to a charity that helps refugees. What is the impact? You affected how much money flows into and out of the United States. If you open an IRA savings account and put money in an international mutual fund, you are involved in the flow of money overseas. While your involvement may not seem as influential as someone like the president, who can increase or decrease foreign aid and, thereby, have a huge impact on money flows in and out of the country, you do interact with the global financial system on a daily basis.
::如何与全球金融体系互动?如果你认为自己与全球金融体系没有多少互动,你再想一想。如果你拿学生贷款,或把钱存入银行帐户。你只是影响了国内储蓄和借款。现在说你在商场,购买了两件“在中国制造的”T恤衫,后来又为帮助难民的慈善机构捐款。有什么影响?你影响了进出美国的资金流量。如果你开了一个IRA储蓄账户,并将资金放入国际共同基金,你就会参与海外资金流动。虽然你的参与似乎不像总统这样的人有影响力,他可以增加或减少外援,从而对进出中国的货币流动产生巨大影响,但你却每天与全球金融体系互动。The balance of payments—a term you will meet soon—seems like a huge topic, but once you learn the specific components of trade and money, it all makes sense. Along the way, you may have to give up some common misunderstandings about trade and answer some questions: If a country is running a trade deficit, is that bad? Is a trade surplus good? For example, look at the Democratic Republic of Congo (often referred to as “Congo”), a large country in Central Africa. In 2012, it ran a trade surplus of $688 million, so it must be doing well, right? In contrast, the trade deficit in the United States was $540 billion in 2012. Do these figures suggest that the economy in the United States is doing worse than the Congolese economy? Not necessarily. The U.S. trade deficit tends to worsen as the economy strengthens. In contrast, high poverty rates in the Congo persist, and these rates are not going down even with the positive trade balance. Clearly, it is more complicated than simply asserting that running a trade deficit is bad for the economy.
::国际收支 — — 你很快会遇到 — — 看上去就像一个巨大的话题,但一旦你了解贸易和货币的具体组成部分,这一切都是有道理的。 顺便提一下,你可能不得不放弃对贸易的一些常见误解,并回答一些问题:如果一个国家存在贸易赤字,那么情况是坏的吗?贸易盈余是否很好?例如,看看刚果民主共和国(通常被称为“刚果 ” ) , 中非的一个大国。 2012年,它的贸易盈余为6.88亿美元,因此它必须做得好。 相反,美国的贸易赤字在2012年是5400亿美元。 这些数字是否表明美国经济比刚果经济要差? 不一定。 相比之下,随着经济的加强,美国的贸易赤字往往会恶化。 相反,刚果的高贫困率(通常被称为“刚果 ” ) , 即使贸易顺差也不会下降。 显然,比简单地说出现贸易赤字对经济不利要复杂得多。In 2012, it ran a trade surplus of $688 million, so it must be doing well, right? In contrast, the trade deficit in the United States was $540 billion in 2012. Do these figures suggest that the economy in the United States is doing worse than the Congolese economy? Not necessarily. The U.S. trade deficit tends to worsen as the economy strengthens. In contrast, high poverty rates in the Congo persist, and these rates are not going down even with the positive trade balance. Clearly, it is more complicated than simply asserting that running a trade deficit is bad for the economy.
::2012年,它的贸易盈余为6.88亿美元,因此它必须做得好。 相反,美国2012年的贸易赤字为5400亿美元。 这些数字是否表明美国经济比刚果经济还差? 不一定。 随着经济的加强,美国的贸易赤字往往会恶化。 相反,刚果的高贫困率持续存在,即使贸易平衡呈正增长趋势,这些比率也不会下降。 显然,比简单地宣称贸易赤字对经济不利要复杂得多。The balance of trade (or trade balance) is any gap between a nation’s dollar value of its exports, or what its producers sell abroad, and a nation’s dollar worth of imports, or the foreign-made products and services that households and businesses purchase. If exports exceed imports, the economy is said to have a trade surplus. If imports exceed exports, the economy is said to have a trade deficit. If exports and imports are equal, then trade is balanced. But what happens when trade is out of balance and large trade surpluses or deficits exist?
::贸易平衡(或贸易平衡)是指一国出口品的美元价值、其生产者在国外销售的商品、一国进口品的美元价值、或家庭和企业购买的外国产品和服务之间的任何差额。 如果出口超过进口,那么经济据说就有贸易顺差。 如果进口超过出口,那么经济就会有贸易逆差。 如果进出口是平等的,那么贸易就会是平衡的。 但是,当贸易失衡、贸易顺差或赤字巨大时会怎样呢?Germany, for example, has had substantial trade surpluses in recent decades, in which exports have greatly exceeded imports. According to the Central Intelligence Agency’s The World Factbook , in 2012, Germany ran a trade surplus of $240 billion. In contrast, the U.S. economy in recent decades has experienced large trade deficits, in which imports have considerably exceeded exports. In 2012, for example, U.S. imports exceeded exports by $540 billion.
::比如,近几十年来,德国的贸易顺差很大,出口大大超过进口。 根据中央情报局的《世界概况介绍 》 ( The World Factbook),2012年,德国的贸易顺差为2400亿美元。 相反,近几十年来,美国经济经历了巨大的贸易逆差,进口大大超过出口。 比如,2012年,美国进口超过出口5400亿美元。A series of financial crises triggered by unbalanced trade can lead economies into deep recessions. These crises begin with large trade deficits. At some point, foreign investors become pessimistic about the economy and move their money to other countries. The economy then drops into deep recession, with real GDP often falling up to 10% or more in a single year. This happened to Mexico in 1995 when their GDP fell 8.1%. A number of countries in East Asia—Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia—came down with the same economic illness in 1997–1998 (called the Asian Financial Crisis). In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, Russia and Argentina had the identical experience. What are the connections between imbalances of trade in goods and services and the flows of international financial capital that set off these economic avalanches?
::由不平衡贸易引发的一系列金融危机可能导致经济体陷入深度衰退。 这些危机始于巨大的贸易赤字。 在某一时刻,外国投资者对经济持悲观态度,然后将其资金转移到其他国家。 随后,经济陷入深度衰退,实际GDP在一年之内往往跌至10 % 。 1995年墨西哥发生这种情况,当时其GDP下降了8.1 % 。 1997-1998年,东亚一些国家 — — 泰国、韩国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚 — — 都患有同样的经济疾病(称为亚洲金融危机 ) 。 在1990年代末和2000年代初,俄罗斯和阿根廷有着相同的经验。 商品和服务贸易不平衡与导致这些经济雪崩的国际金融资本流动之间有什么联系?We will start by examining the balance of trade in more detail, by looking at some patterns of trade balances in the United States and around the world. Then we will examine the intimate connection between international flows of goods and services and international flows of financial capital, which to economists are really just two sides of the same coin. It is often assumed that trade surpluses like those in Germany must be a positive sign for an economy, while trade deficits like those in the United States must be harmful. As it turns out, both trade surpluses and deficits can be either good or bad.
::首先,我们将更详细地研究贸易平衡,研究美国和全世界贸易平衡的某些模式。 然后,我们将研究国际货物和服务流动与国际金融资本流动之间的密切关系,这对经济学家来说其实只是同一枚硬币的两面。 人们常常认为,像德国这样的贸易顺差必须是一个经济的积极迹象,而像美国这样的贸易逆差必须是有害的。 事实证明,贸易顺差和逆差可以是好的,也可以是坏的。Measuring Trade Balances
::衡量贸易平衡A few decades ago, it was common to track the solid or physical items that were transported by planes, trains, and trucks between countries as a way of measuring the balance of trade. This measurement is called the merchandise trade balance. In most high-income economies, including the United States, goods make up less than half of a country’s total production, while services compose more than half. The last two decades have seen a surge in international trade in services, powered by technological advances in telecommunications and computers that have made it possible to export or import customer services, finance, law, advertising, management consulting, software, construction engineering, and product design. Most global trade still takes the form of goods rather than services, and the merchandise trade balance is still announced by the government and reported prominently in the newspapers. Old habits are hard to break. Economists, however, typically rely on broader measures such as the balance of trade or the current account balance which includes other international flows of income and foreign aid.
::几十年前,追踪由飞机、火车和卡车在国家间运输的固体或实物物品,以此作为衡量贸易平衡的一种方法,这是常见的。 这一衡量方法被称为商品贸易平衡。 在大多数高收入经济体,包括美国,商品占国家总产量的不到一半,而服务业占一半以上。 过去20年,国际服务贸易激增,由电信和计算机技术进步推动,使进出口客户服务、金融、法律、广告、管理咨询、软件、建筑工程和产品设计成为可能。 大多数全球贸易仍然以货物而不是服务的形式出现,商品贸易平衡仍然由政府宣布并在报纸上显著报告。 旧习惯很难打破。 然而,经济学家通常依赖更广泛的措施,比如贸易平衡或包括其他国际收入和外援流动在内的经常账户平衡。Components of the U.S. Current Account Balance
::美国经常账户余额的组成部分3 breaks down the four main components of the U.S. current account balance for 2013. The first line shows the merchandise trade balance; that is, exports and imports of goods. Because imports exceed exports, the trade balance in the final column is negative, showing a merchandise trade deficit.
::2013年美国经常账户余额的四大部分分为3个部分:2013年美国经常账户余额的4个主要部分:第一行显示商品贸易余额,即货物的进出口。 由于进口超过出口,最后一栏的贸易余额为负数,显示商品贸易赤字。Components of the U.S. Current Account Balance for 2013 (in billions)
::2013年美国经常账户余额的组成部分(10亿美元)Value of Exports
::出口价值Value of Imports
::进口价值Balance
::余额余额余额余额余额Goods
::货物货物货物$391.0
$570.1
–$179.1
Services
::服务服务服务处$168.0
$112.6
$55.4
Income payments
::收入收入付款$191.3
$137.4
$53.9
Unilateral transfers
::单方面转让-
$34.5
–$34.5
Current account balance
::经常账户结余$750.3
$854.6
–$104.3
How does the U.S. government collect trade statistics?
::美国政府如何收集贸易统计数据?Do not confuse the balance of trade (which tracks imports and exports), with the current account balance, which includes not just exports and imports, but also income from investment and transfers.
::贸易平衡(追踪进出口)不应与经常账户平衡混淆,经常账户平衡不仅包括进出口,还包括投资和转移收入。Statistics on the balance of trade are compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce, using a variety of different sources. Importers and exporters of merchandise must file monthly documents with the Census Bureau, which provides the basic data for tracking trade. To measure international trade in services—which can happen over a telephone line or computer network without any physical goods being shipped—the BEA carries out a set of surveys. Another set of BEA surveys track investment flows, and there are even specific surveys to collect travel information from U.S. residents visiting Canada and Mexico. For measuring unilateral transfers, the BEA has access to official U.S. government spending on aid, and then also carries out a survey of charitable organizations that make foreign donations.
::美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)利用各种不同来源汇编了贸易平衡统计数据,商品进出口商必须每月向人口普查局提交文件,普查局为跟踪贸易提供基本数据,为了衡量国际服务贸易——可以通过电话线或计算机网络进行,而不运送任何有形货物——BEA进行一系列调查,另一套BEA调查跟踪投资流动情况,甚至还进行具体调查,从访问加拿大和墨西哥的美国居民那里收集旅行信息,为了衡量单方面转移,BEA获得美国政府官方的援助支出,然后对提供外国捐助的慈善组织进行调查。This information on international flows of goods and capital is then cross-checked against other available data. For example, the Census Bureau also collects data from the shipping industry, which can be used to check the data on trade in goods. All companies involved in international flows of capital—including banks and companies making financial investments like stocks—must file reports, which are ultimately compiled by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Information on foreign trade can also be cross-checked by looking at data collected by other countries on their foreign trade with the United States, and also at the data collected by various international organizations. Take these data sources, stir carefully, and you have the U.S. balance of trade statistics. Much of the statistics cited in this chapter come from these sources.
::有关国际货物和资本流动的这一信息随后与其他现有数据进行交叉核对,例如,人口普查局还收集航运业的数据,这些数据可用于核对货物贸易数据,所有参与国际资本流动的公司——包括银行和像股票一样进行金融投资的公司——都必须提交最终由美国财政部汇编的报告,关于外贸的信息也可以通过查看其他国家收集的关于它们与美国对外贸易的数据以及各国际组织收集的数据加以交叉核对,仔细利用这些数据来源,仔细地搅动,并掌握美国贸易统计平衡,本章引用的大部分统计数据来自这些来源。The second row of 3 provides data on trade in services. Here, the U.S. economy is running a surplus. Although the level of trade in services is still relatively small compared to trade in goods, the importance of services has expanded substantially over the last few decades. For example, U.S. exports of services were equal to about one-half of U.S. exports of goods in 2013, compared to one-fifth in 1980.
::第二行3提供了服务贸易数据。这里,美国经济正在出现顺差。 虽然服务贸易水平与货物贸易相比仍然相对较低,但服务业的重要性在过去几十年中大幅提高。 比如,美国2013年的服务出口相当于美国货物出口的一半左右,而1980年是五分之一。The third component of the current account balance, labeled “income payments,” refers to money received by U.S. financial investors on their foreign investments (money flowing into the United States) and payments to foreign investors who had invested their funds here (money flowing out of the United States). The reason for including this money on foreign investment in the overall measure of trade, along with goods and services, is that, from an economic perspective, income is just as much an economic transaction as shipments of cars or wheat or oil: it is just trade that is happening in the financial capital market.
::经常账户余额的第三部分被贴上“收入支付 ” 的标签,指的是美国金融投资者从外国投资(流入美国的资金)和向投资到国外的外国投资者(流出美国的资金)的付款(流出美国的资金 ) 。 将这笔外国投资资金纳入贸易总体计量以及商品和服务的原因在于,从经济角度看,收入与汽车或小麦或石油运输一样是经济交易:金融资本市场正在发生的只是贸易。The final category of the current account balance is unilateral transfers, which are payments made by government, private charities, or individuals in which money is sent abroad without any direct good or service being received. Economic or military assistance from the U.S. government to other countries fits into this category, as does spending abroad by charities to address poverty or social inequalities. When an individual in the United States sends money overseas, it is also counted in this category. The current account balance treats these unilateral payments like imports, because they also involve a stream of payments leaving the country. For the U.S. economy, unilateral transfers are almost always negative. This pattern, however, does not always hold. In 1991, for example, when the United States led an international coalition against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the Gulf War, many other nations agreed that they would make payments to the United States to offset the U.S. war expenses. These payments were large enough that, in 1991, the overall U.S. balance on unilateral transfers was a positive $10 billion.
::经常账户余额的最后一类是单方面转移,即由政府、私人慈善机构或个人支付款项,将资金直接汇往国外而没有任何直接好处或得到服务。美国政府向其他国家提供的经济或军事援助也属于这一类别,慈善机构在国外的支出也是如此,用于解决贫困或社会不平等问题。当美国境内的个人向海外汇款时,也计入这一类别。经常账户余额将这些单方面支付款与进口款一样对待,因为它们也涉及离开美国的一系列付款。对于美国经济来说,单方面转移款几乎总是负面的。然而,这种模式并不总能维持下去。 例如,1991年,当美国在海湾战争中率领国际联盟反对萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克时,其他许多国家都同意向美国支付款项,以抵消美国战争费用。这些付款数额足够大,1991年,美国单方面转移款的总余额为100亿美元。The trade balance measures the gap between a country’s exports and its imports. In most high-income economies, goods make up less than half of a country’s total production, while services compose more than half. The last two decades have seen a surge in international trade in services; however, most global trade still takes the form of goods rather than services. The current account balance includes the trade in goods, services, and money flowing into and out of a country from investments and unilateral transfers.
::贸易平衡衡量一国出口与进口之间的差距。 在大多数高收入经济体中,商品占国家总产量的不到一半,而服务业则占一半以上。 在过去二十年中,国际服务贸易激增;然而,大多数全球贸易仍然以商品而不是服务的形式出现。 经常账户平衡包括货物、服务贸易以及投资和单边转移流入和流出一个国家的资金。Trade Balances in Historical and International Context
::历史和国际背景下的贸易平衡The history of the U.S. current account balance in recent decades is presented in several different ways. 1 (a) shows the current account balance and the merchandise trade balance in dollar terms. 1 (b) shows the current account balance and merchandise account balance yet again, this time presented as a share of the GDP for that year. By dividing the trade deficit in each year by GDP in that year, 1 (b) factors out both inflation and growth in the real economy.
::美国近几十年来的经常账户余额历史以不同方式呈现。 1(a) 以美元表示经常账户余额和商品贸易余额。 1(b) 以美元表示经常账户余额和商品账户余额,这次以当年国内生产总值的比例表示。 通过将当年每年的贸易赤字除以GDP,1(b) 将实体经济的通胀和增长都推向了现实经济。Current Account Balance and Merchandise Trade Balance, 1960–2012
::1960-2012年经常账户收支平衡和商品贸易平衡(a) The current account balance and the merchandise trade balance in billions of dollars from 1960 to 2012. If the lines are above zero dollars, the United States was running a positive trade balance and current account balance. If the lines fall below zero dollars, the United States is running a trade deficit and a deficit in its current account balance. (b) These same items—trade balance and current account balance—are shown in relationship to the size of the U.S. economy, or GDP, from 1960 to 2012.
::从1960年至2012年,经常账户余额和商品贸易余额为数十亿美元,如果项目超过零美元,美国的贸易余额和经常账户余额为正数,如果项目低于零美元,美国的贸易赤字和经常账户余额为逆数。 (b)1960年至2012年,这些相同的项目----贸易余额和经常账户余额----与美国经济规模或国内生产总值(GDP)的关系显示为1960年至2012年。By either measure, the general pattern of the U.S. balance of trade is clear. From the 1960s into the 1970s, the U.S. economy had mostly small trade surpluses—that is, the graphs of 2 show positive numbers. However, starting in the 1980s, the trade deficit increased rapidly, and after a tiny surplus in 1991, the current account trade deficit got even larger in the late 1990s and into the mid-2000s. However, the trade deficit declined in 2009 after the recession had taken hold.
::无论以哪种衡量方法衡量,美国贸易平衡的总体格局是显而易见的。 从1960年代到1970年代,美国经济的贸易顺差大多很小 — — 也就是说,2的图表显示了正数。 但是,从1980年代开始,贸易逆差迅速增加,在1991年出现微小顺差之后,经常账户贸易逆差在1990年代末和2000年代中期甚至更大。 然而,在衰退持续之后,2009年贸易逆差下降。4 shows the U.S. trade picture in 2013 compared with some other economies from around the world. While the U.S. economy has consistently run trade deficits in recent years, Japan and many European nations, among them France and Germany, have consistently run trade surpluses. Some of the other countries listed include Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America; Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa; and China, India, and Korea. The first column offers one measure of the globalization of an economy: exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP. The second column shows the trade balance. Most of the time, most countries have trade surpluses or deficits that are less than 5% of GDP. As you can see, the U.S. current account is negative 3.1%, while Germany’s is positive 6.2%.
::4 显示了美国2013年与世界其他经济体相比的贸易情况。 虽然美国经济近年来一直存在贸易赤字,但日本和许多欧洲国家,包括法国和德国,也一直存在贸易盈余。 所列其他国家包括巴西(拉丁美洲最大经济体 ) 、 尼日利亚(非洲最大经济体 ) 、 中国、印度和韩国。 第一栏提供了衡量经济全球化的一个尺度:商品和服务出口占GDP的百分比。 第二栏显示了贸易平衡。 大多数时候,大多数国家的贸易盈余或赤字不到GDP的5 % 。 如你所见,美国经常账户为负3.1 % , 德国为正6.2 % 。Level and Balance of Trade in 2012 (figures as a percentage of GDP)
::2012年贸易水平和贸易平衡情况(数字占国内生产总值的百分比)Exports of Goods and Services
::商品和服务出口品及 服务出口品及服务出口品出口品Current Account Balance
::往来账户结余United States
::美国 美国 美国 美国14%
–3.1%
Japan
::日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本15%
2.0%
Germany
::德国 德国50%
6.2%
United Kingdom
::联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国32%
–1.3%
Canada
::加拿大 加拿大 加拿大30%
–3.0%
Sweden
::瑞典 瑞典 瑞典 瑞典50%
7.0%
Korea
::韩国56%
2.3%
Mexico
::墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥 墨西哥32%
–0.8%
Brazil
::巴西 巴西12%
–2.1%
China
::中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国31%
1.9%
India
::印度 印度 印度24%
–3.2%
Nigeria
::尼日利亚 尼日利亚 尼日利亚40%
3.6%
World
::世界世界世界-
0.0%
The United States developed large trade surpluses in the early 1980s, swung back to a tiny trade surplus in 1991, and then had even larger trade deficits in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As we will see below, a trade deficit necessarily means a net inflow of financial capital from abroad, while a trade surplus necessarily means a net outflow of financial capital from an economy to other countries.
::美国在1980年代初发展了巨大的贸易顺差,在1991年回落到微小的贸易顺差,然后在1990年代末和2000年代初贸易逆差甚至更大。 如下文所示,贸易逆差必然意味着金融资本从国外净流入,而贸易顺差则必然意味着金融资本从一个经济体向其他国家的净流出。Trade Balances and Flows of Financial Capital
::贸易平衡和金融资本流动As economists see it, trade surpluses can be either good or bad, depending on circumstances, and trade deficits can be good or bad, too. The challenge is to understand how the international flows of goods and services are connected with international flows of financial capital. In this module we will illustrate the intimate connection between trade balances and flows of financial capital in two ways: a parable of trade between Robinson Crusoe and Friday, and a circular flow diagram representing flows of trade and payments.
::正如经济学家所看到的,贸易顺差可能好或坏,取决于环境,贸易逆差也可能好或坏。 挑战在于理解国际货物和服务流动如何与国际金融资本流动相联系。 在本模块中,我们将以两种方式说明贸易平衡和金融资本流动之间的密切关系:鲁滨逊·克鲁索和星期五之间的贸易比喻,以及代表贸易和支付流动的循环流动图。A Two-Person Economy: Robinson Crusoe and Friday
::双人经济:鲁滨逊·克鲁索和星期五To understand how economists view trade deficits and surpluses, consider a parable based on the story of Robinson Crusoe. Crusoe, as you may remember from the classic novel by Daniel Defoe first published in 1719, was shipwrecked on a desert island. After living alone for some time, he is joined by a second person, whom he names Friday. Think about the balance of trade in a two-person economy like that of Robinson and Friday.
::为了理解经济学家如何看待贸易赤字和盈余,请根据鲁滨逊·克鲁索的故事来思考一个比喻。 正如你可能从1719年首次出版的丹尼尔·德福(Daniel Defoe)的经典小说中所记得的那样,克鲁索在沙漠岛上沉船。 在独居一段时间后,他与第二个人一起度过了星期五。 想想像罗宾逊(Robinson)和星期五那样的双人经济的贸易平衡。Robinson and Friday trade goods and services. Perhaps Robinson catches fish and trades them to Friday for coconuts, or Friday weaves a hat out of tree fronds and trades it to Robinson for help in carrying water. For a period of time, each individual trade is self-contained and complete. Because each trade is voluntary, both Robinson and Friday must feel that they are receiving fair value for what they are giving. As a result, each person’s exports are always equal to his imports, and trade is always in balance between the two. Neither person experiences either a trade deficit or a trade surplus.
::鲁滨逊和星期五的商品和服务贸易。 也许鲁滨逊在捕捉鱼并将鱼交换成星期五的椰子,或者在星期五用树叶帽编织成一顶帽子,然后与鲁滨逊进行交易,以助运水。 在一段时间里,每个个体贸易都是自足和完整的。 由于每种贸易都是自愿的,鲁滨逊和星期五都必须感到它们所提供的产品得到了公平的价值。 因此,每个人的出口总是与进口品一样,贸易总是平衡的。 无论是贸易赤字还是贸易顺差都不是。However, one day Robinson approaches Friday with a proposition. Robinson wants to dig ditches for an irrigation system for his garden, but he knows that if he starts this project, he will not have much time left to fish and gather coconuts to feed himself each day. He proposes that Friday supply him with a certain number of fish and coconuts for several months, and then after that time, he promises to repay Friday out of the extra produce that he will be able to grow in his irrigated garden. If Friday accepts this offer, then a trade imbalance comes into being. For several months, Friday will have a trade surplus: that is, he is exporting to Robinson more than he is importing. More precisely, he is giving Robinson fish and coconuts, and at least for the moment, he is receiving nothing in return. Conversely, Robinson will have a trade deficit, because he is importing more from Friday than he is exporting.
::然而,有一天,鲁滨逊在星期五到来时提出一个提议。鲁滨逊想为花园的灌溉系统挖沟沟,但他知道,如果他开始这个项目,他将没有多少时间去捕鱼和收集椰子,每天养活自己。他提议星期五给他提供一定数量的鱼和椰子,为期数月,然后在那个时候之后,他承诺用他能在灌溉的花园里种植的额外产品偿还星期五。如果星期五接受这个提议,那么贸易不平衡就会出现。在几个月里,星期五将有一个贸易盈余:也就是说,他向鲁滨逊出口的比他进口的多。更确切地说,他给鲁滨逊鱼和椰子,而且至少在目前,他没有得到回报。相反,鲁滨逊将有一个贸易赤字,因为他从星期五进口的比出口的要多。This parable raises several useful issues in thinking about what a trade deficit and a trade surplus really mean in economic terms. The first issue raised by this story of Robinson and Friday is this: Is it better to have a trade surplus or a trade deficit? The answer, as in any voluntary market interaction, is that if both parties agree to the transaction, then they may both be better off. Over time, if Robinson’s irrigated garden is a success, it is certainly possible that both Robinson and Friday can benefit from this agreement.
::这一比喻在思考贸易赤字和贸易顺差在经济方面究竟意味着什么时,提出了几个有用的问题。 鲁滨逊和星期五这个故事所提出的第一个问题是:贸易顺差或贸易逆差是否更好? 在任何自愿的市场互动中,答案是,如果双方同意交易,那么双方都会更好。 随着时间的推移,如果鲁滨逊的灌溉园落成,罗宾逊和星期五都有可能从这一协议中受益。A second issue raised by the parable: What can go wrong? Robinson’s proposal to Friday introduces an element of uncertainty. Friday is, in effect, making a loan of fish and coconuts to Robinson, and Friday’s happiness with this arrangement will depend on whether that loan is repaid as planned, in full and on time. Perhaps Robinson spends several months loafing and never builds the irrigation system, or perhaps Robinson has been too optimistic about how much he will be able to grow with the new irrigation system, which turns out not to be very productive. Perhaps, after building the irrigation system, Robinson decides that he does not want to repay Friday as much as previously agreed. Any of these developments will prompt a new round of negotiations between Friday and Robinson. Friday’s attitude toward these renegotiations is likely to be shaped by why the repayment failed. If Robinson worked very hard and the irrigation system just did not increase production as intended, Friday may have some sympathy. If Robinson loafed or if he just refuses to pay, Friday may become irritated.
::第二个问题是由这个比喻提出的第二个问题:什么会出错?鲁滨逊的星期五提案引入了一个不确定因素。 事实上,星期五是向鲁滨逊提供鱼和椰子贷款,而星期五对这一安排的幸福度将取决于这笔贷款是否按计划、全额和按时偿还。 也许鲁滨逊花费了几个月的时间,并且从未建造灌溉系统,或者也许鲁滨逊对于他能够用新的灌溉系统来种植多少粮食过于乐观,而新的灌溉系统最终证明效果不佳。 也许,在建立灌溉系统之后,鲁滨逊决定他不想像以前约定的那样偿还星期五。 任何这些事态发展都会促使星期五和罗宾逊之间的新一轮谈判。 星期五对这些重新谈判的态度可能受偿还失败原因的影响。 如果鲁滨逊工作非常艰苦,灌溉系统也没有像预期的那样增加产量,那么周五可能有些同情。 如果鲁滨逊不努力,或者他只是拒绝支付,星期五可能会变得不耐烦。A third issue raised by the parable of Robinson and Friday is that an intimate relationship exists between a trade deficit and international borrowing, and between a trade surplus and international lending. The size of Friday’s trade surplus is exactly how much he is lending to Robinson. The size of Robinson’s trade deficit is exactly how much he is borrowing from Friday. Indeed, to economists, a trade surplus literally means the same thing as an outflow of financial capital, and a trade deficit literally means the same thing as an inflow of financial capital.
::罗宾逊和星期五的比喻提出的第三个问题是贸易赤字与国际借贷之间以及贸易盈余与国际借贷之间存在亲密关系。 星期五的贸易盈余规模正是他向罗宾逊贷款的数额。 鲁滨逊的贸易赤字规模正是他从星期五借款的数额。 事实上,对经济学家来说,贸易盈余实际上意味着金融资本外流,而贸易赤字也意味着金融资本流入。The story of Robinson and Friday also provides a good opportunity to consider the law of comparative advantage.
::鲁滨逊和星期五的故事也为审议相对优势法提供了一个很好的机会。The Balance of Trade as the Balance of Payments
::贸易平衡作为国际收支平衡The connection between trade balances and international flows of financial capital is so close that the balance of trade is sometimes described as the balance of payments. Each category of the current account balance involves a corresponding flow of payments between a given country and the rest of the world economy.
::贸易平衡与国际金融资本的国际流动之间的联系如此密切,以致贸易平衡有时被称为国际收支,经常账户的每类余额都涉及某一国家与世界经济其他部分之间的相应支付流量。3 shows the flow of goods and services and payments between one country—the United States in this example—and the rest of the world. The top line shows U.S. exports of goods and services, while the second line shows financial payments from purchasers in other countries back to the U.S. economy. The third line then shows U.S. imports of goods, services, and investment, and the fourth line shows payments from the home economy to the rest of the world. Flow of goods and services (lines one and three) show up in the current account, while flow of funds (lines two and four) are found in the financial account.
::第三行显示了货物和服务的流动以及一国——美国在此例中——和世界其他地区之间的支付情况。 上行显示了美国货物和服务的出口情况,第二行显示了其他国家购买者向美国经济的金融支付情况。 第三行则显示了美国商品、服务和投资的进口情况,第四行显示了从本国经济向世界其他地区的支付情况。 商品和服务的流动情况(第一和第二行)出现在经常账户中,而资金流动情况(第二和第三行)则出现在金融账户中。The bottom four lines of the 3 show the flow of investment income. In the first of the bottom lines, we see investments made abroad with funds flowing from the home country to rest of the world. Investment income stemming from an investment abroad then runs in the other direction from the rest of the world to the home country. Similarly, we see on the bottom third line, an investment from rest of the world into the home country and investment income (bottom fourth line) flowing from the home country to the rest of the world. The investment income (bottom lines two and four) are found in the current account, while investment to the rest of the world or into the home country (lines one and three) are found in the financial account. Unilateral transfers, the fourth item in the current account, are not shown in this figure.
::投资收入的底线是投资收入的流向。在底线的第1行,我们看到投资从母国流向世界其他地方。来自国外的投资收入随后从世界其他地区流向母国。同样,我们从底线第3行看到来自世界其他地区的投资流向母国,投资收入(底线第四行)从母国流向世界其他地方。投资收入(底线第二和四行)在经常账户中找到,而对世界其他地区或母国的投资(第1和第3行)则在金融账户中找到。经常账户中的第4项单方面转移(第4项)没有显示于本图中。Flow of Investment Goods and Capital
::投资、货物和资本流动Each element of the current account balance involves a flow of financial payments between countries. The top line shows exports of goods and services leaving the home country; the second line shows the money received by the home country for those exports. The third line shows imports received by the home country; the fourth line shows the payments sent abroad by the home country in exchange for these imports.
::经常账户余额的每个部分都涉及国家间的金融支付流动,头一栏显示离开母国的货物和服务出口;第二栏显示母国为这些出口收到的资金;第三栏显示母国收到的进口;第四栏显示母国为交换这些进口而汇往国外的付款。A current account deficit means that the country is a net borrower from abroad. Conversely, a positive current account balance means a country is a net lender to the rest of the world. Just like the parable of Robinson and Friday, the lesson is that a trade surplus means an overall outflow of financial investment capital, as domestic investors put their funds abroad, while the deficit in the current account balance is exactly equal to the overall or net inflow of foreign investment capital from abroad.
::经常账户赤字意味着该国是国外净借款国。 相反,正对经常账户余额意味着一个国家是世界其他地区的净贷款国。 正如鲁滨逊和星期五的比喻一样,教训是贸易顺差意味着金融投资资本的全面外流,因为国内投资者将其资金投向国外,而经常账户余额的逆差与国外外国投资资本的总体或净流入量完全相等。It is important to recognize that an inflow and outflow of foreign capital does not necessarily refer to a debt that governments owe to other governments, although government debt may be part of the picture. Instead, these international flows of financial capital refer to all of the ways in which private investors in one country may invest in another country—by buying real estate, companies, and financial investments like stocks and bonds.
::必须认识到,外国资本的流入和流出并不一定是指政府欠其他国家政府的债务,尽管政府债务可能也是其中的一部分。 相反,这些国际金融资本流动指的是一国私人投资者通过购买房地产、公司和股票和债券等金融投资在另一国投资的所有方式。International flows of goods and services are closely connected to the international flows of financial capital. A current account deficit means that, after taking all the flows of payments from goods, services, and income together, the country is a net borrower from the rest of the world. A current account surplus is the opposite and means the country is a net lender to the rest of the world.
::国际货物和服务流动与国际金融资本流动密切相关,经常账户赤字意味着,在综合了所有来自货物、服务和收入的支付流量之后,该国成为世界其他地区的净借款国,经常账户顺差正好相反,这意味着该国是世界其他地区的净贷款国。The National Saving and Investment Identity
::国家储蓄和投资身份The close connection between trade balances and international flows of savings and investments leads to a macroeconomic analysis. This approach views trade balances—and their associated flows of financial capital—in the context of the overall levels of savings and financial investment in the economy.
::贸易平衡与储蓄和投资的国际流动之间的密切联系导致进行宏观经济分析,从经济储蓄和金融投资的总体水平来看贸易平衡及其相关的金融资本流动。Understanding the Determinants of the Trade and Current Account Balance
::了解贸易和经常账户余额的决定因素The national saving and investment identity provides a useful way to understand the determinants of the trade and current account balance. In a nation’s financial capital market, the quantity of financial capital supplied at any given time must equal the quantity of financial capital demanded for purposes of making investments. What is on the supply and demand sides of financial capital? See the following Clear It Up feature for the answer to this question .
::国民储蓄和投资身份为理解贸易和经常账户平衡的决定因素提供了有用的方法。 在一个国家的金融资本市场上,任何特定时间提供的金融资本数量必须等于投资所需的金融资本数量。 金融资本的供需方面有什么问题? 这个问题的答案见下面的Clear It Up特征。What comprises the supply and demand of financial capital?
::什么是金融资本的供求?A country’s national savings is the total of its domestic savings by household and companies (private savings) as well as the government (public savings). If a country is running a trade deficit, it means money from abroad is entering the country and is considered part of the supply of financial capital.
::一个国家的国民储蓄是家庭和公司(私人储蓄)以及政府(公共储蓄)的国内储蓄总量。 如果一个国家贸易赤字,这意味着国外资金进入该国,并被视为金融资本供应的一部分。The demand for financial capital (money) represents groups that are borrowing the money. Businesses need to borrow to finance their investments in factories, materials, and personnel. When the federal government runs a budget deficit, it is also borrowing money from investors by selling Treasury bonds. So both business investment and the federal government can demand (or borrow) the supply of savings.
::金融资本(金钱)需求代表着正在借钱的集团。 企业需要借款来为工厂、材料和人员投资提供资金。 当联邦政府出现预算赤字时,它也通过出售国库债券向投资者借款。 因此,企业投资和联邦政府都可以要求(或借用)储蓄供应。There are two main sources for the supply of financial capital in the U.S. economy: saving by individuals and firms, called S, and the inflow of financial capital from foreign investors, which is equal to the trade deficit (M – X), or imports minus exports. There are also two main sources of demand for financial capital in the U.S. economy: private sector investment, I, and government borrowing, where the government needs to borrow when government spending, G, is higher than the taxes collected, T. This national savings and investment identity can be expressed in algebraic terms:
::美国经济的金融资本供应有两大主要来源:个人和公司储蓄(称为S ) , 外国投资者的金融资本流入(相当于贸易赤字(M-X ) ) , 或进口减出口 ) 。 美国经济的金融资本需求还有两大主要来源:私营部门投资(I)和政府借贷(政府支出(G)高于税收时政府需要借款 ) , T。 这一国家储蓄和投资特征可以用代数表达:Supply of financial capital = Demand for financial capital
::提供金融资本=对金融资本的需求S + (M – X) = I + (G – T)
::S+ (M - X) = I + (G - T)Again, in this equation, S is private savings, T is taxes, G is government spending, M is imports, X is exports, and I is investment. This relationship is true as a matter of definition because, for the macro economy, the quantity supplied of financial capital must be equal to the quantity demanded.
::同样,在这个等式中,S是私人储蓄,T是税收,G是政府支出,M是进口,X是出口,而I是投资。 这种关系在定义上是正确的,因为对于宏观经济来说,金融资本的供应量必须等于要求的数量。However, certain components of the national savings and investment identity can switch between the supply side and the demand side. Some countries, like the United States in most years since the 1970s, have budget deficits, which mean the government is spending more than it collects in taxes, and so the government needs to borrow funds. In this case, the government term would be G – T > 0, showing that spending is larger than taxes, and the government would be a demander of financial capital on the right-hand side of the equation (that is, a borrower), not a supplier of financial capital on the right-hand side. However, if the government runs a budget surplus so that the taxes exceed spending, as the U.S. government did from 1998 to 2001, then the government in that year was contributing to the supply of financial capital (T – G > 0), and would appear on the left (saving) side of the national savings and investment identity.
::然而,国民储蓄和投资身份的某些组成部分可以在供应方和需求方之间发生转变。 有些国家,如美国(1970年代以来的多数年份 ) , 有预算赤字,这意味着政府支出超过税收,因此政府需要借款。 在这种情况下,政府任期为G - T > 0,表明支出大于税收,而政府则是对金融资本的需求方(即借款方 ) , 而不是右翼金融资本的供应方。 但是,如果政府预算盈余导致税收超过支出,就像美国政府1998-2001年所做的那样,那么当年,政府将为金融资本(T - G > 0)的供应做出贡献,并出现在国家储蓄和投资身份的左(储蓄)一边。Similarly, if a national economy runs a trade surplus, the trade sector will involve an outflow of financial capital to other countries. A trade surplus means that the domestic financial capital is in surplus within a country and can be invested in other countries.
::同样,如果国民经济出现贸易顺差,贸易部门将涉及金融资本外流到其他国家,贸易顺差意味着国内金融资本在一国国内出现顺差,可以投资到其他国家。The fundamental notion that total quantity of financial capital demanded equals total quantity of financial capital supplied must always remain true. Domestic savings will always appear as part of the supply of financial capital and domestic investment will always appear as part of the demand for financial capital. However, the government and trade balance elements of the equation can move back and forth as either suppliers or demanders of financial capital, depending on whether government budgets and the trade balance are in surplus or deficit.
::金融资本总量要求等于所提供金融资本总量的基本概念必须始终是真实的。 国内储蓄总是作为金融资本供应的一部分出现,国内投资也总是作为金融资本需求的一部分出现。 但是,政府和贸易平衡因素可以作为金融资本的供货方或需求方来回移动,这取决于政府预算和贸易平衡是盈余还是赤字。Domestic Saving and Investment Determine the Trade Balance
::确定贸易平衡One insight from the national saving and investment identity is that a nation’s balance of trade is determined by that nation’s own levels of domestic saving and domestic investment. To understand this point, rearrange the identity to put the balance of trade all by itself on one side of the equation. Consider first the situation with a trade deficit, and then the situation with a trade surplus.
::国民储蓄和投资身份的一个深刻观点是,一个国家的贸易平衡取决于该国自身的国内储蓄和国内投资水平。 为了理解这一点,重新排列身份,将贸易平衡本身置于等式的一边。 首先考虑贸易赤字,然后考虑贸易顺差。In the case of a trade deficit, the national saving and investment identity can be rewritten as:
::在出现贸易赤字的情况下,可以将国民储蓄和投资特性改写为:Trade deficit= Domestic investment – Private domestic saving – Government (or public) savings
::贸易赤字=国内投资-私人国内储蓄-政府(或公共)储蓄(M – X) = I – S – (T – G)
:In this case, domestic investment is higher than domestic saving, including both private and government saving. The only way that domestic investment can exceed domestic saving is if capital is flowing into a country from abroad. After all, that extra financial capital for investment has to come from someplace.
::在这种情况下,国内投资高于国内储蓄,包括私人和政府储蓄。 国内投资能够超过国内储蓄的唯一途径是资本从国外流入一个国家。 毕竟,投资的额外金融资本必须来自某个地方。Now consider a trade surplus from the standpoint of the national saving and investment identity:
::现在从国民储蓄和投资身份的角度考虑贸易顺差:Trade surplus= Private domestic saving + Public saving – Domestic investment
::贸易盈余=私人国内储蓄+公共储蓄-国内投资(X – M) = S + (T – G) – I
:In this case, domestic savings (both private and public) is higher than domestic investment. That extra financial capital will be invested abroad.
::在这种情况下,国内储蓄(包括私人和公共储蓄)高于国内投资,额外金融资本将在国外投资。This connection of domestic saving and investment to the trade balance explains why economists view the balance of trade as a fundamentally macroeconomic phenomenon. As the national saving and investment identity shows, the trade balance is not determined by the performance of certain sectors of an economy, like cars or steel. Nor is the trade balance determined by whether the nation’s trade laws and regulations encourage free trade or protectionism.
::国内储蓄和投资与贸易平衡的这种联系解释了经济学家为什么将贸易平衡视为根本的宏观经济现象。 正如国民储蓄和投资身份所显示的那样,贸易平衡不是由汽车或钢铁等经济的某些部门的表现决定的。 贸易平衡也不是由国家贸易法律和法规是否鼓励自由贸易或保护主义决定的。Exploring Trade Balances One Factor at a Time
::一次探讨贸易平衡的一个因素The national saving and investment identity also provides a framework for thinking about what will cause trade deficits to rise or fall. Begin with the version of the identity that has domestic savings and investment on the left and the trade deficit on the right:
::国民储蓄和投资身份也为思考导致贸易赤字上升或下降的原因提供了一个框架。Domestic investment – Private domestic savings – Public domestic savings= Trade deficit
::国内投资-私人国内储蓄-公共国内储蓄=贸易赤字I – S – (T – G) = (M – X)
::我 - (T - G) = (M - X)Now, consider the factors on the left-hand side of the equation one at a time, while holding the other factors constant.
::现在,考虑方程左侧的一个时段因素,同时保持其他因素不变。As a first example, assume that the level of domestic investment in a country rises, while the level of private and public saving remains unchanged. The result is shown in the first row of under the equation. Since the equality of the national savings and investment identity must continue to hold—it is, after all, an identity that must be true by definition—the rise in domestic investment will mean a higher trade deficit. This situation occurred in the U.S. economy in the late 1990s. Because of the surge of new information and communications technologies that became available, business investment increased substantially. A fall in private saving during this time and a rise in government saving more or less offset each other. As a result, the financial capital to fund that business investment came from abroad, which is one reason for the very high U.S. trade deficits of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
::首先,假设一国的国内投资水平上升,而私人和公共储蓄水平保持不变,结果在等式第一行中显示出来。由于国民储蓄和投资身份的平等必须继续维持下去,毕竟,从定义上来说,这是一个必须真实的特征,国内投资的增加将意味着贸易赤字增加。这种情况发生在1990年代末期美国经济中。由于新信息和通信技术的激增,商业投资大幅度增加。这一时期私人储蓄的下降和政府储蓄的上升或多或少地抵消了两者。结果,为这种商业投资提供资金的金融资本来自国外,这是1990年代末和2000年代初期美国贸易赤字极高的原因之一。Causes of a Changing Trade Balance
::贸易平衡变化的原因Domestic Investment
::国内投资–
Private Domestic Savings
::私人国内储蓄–
Public Domestic Savings
::公共国内储蓄=
Trade Deficit
::贸易赤字I
::一一–
S
::S S 级–
(T – G)
:=
(M – X)
:Up
::上上No change
::无改动No change
::无改动Then M – X must rise
::然后M - X必须升起No change
::无改动Up
::上上No change
::无改动Then M – X must fall
::然后M -X必须坠落No change
::无改动No change
::无改动Down
::下下下Then M – X must rise
::然后M - X必须升起As a second scenario, assume that the level of domestic savings rises, while the level of domestic investment and public savings remain unchanged. In this case, the trade deficit would decline. As domestic savings rises, there would be less need for foreign financial capital to meet investment needs. For this reason, a policy proposal often made for reducing the U.S. trade deficit is to increase private saving—although exactly how to increase the overall rate of saving has proven controversial.
::作为第二种设想,假设国内储蓄水平上升,而国内投资和公共储蓄水平保持不变;在这种情况下,贸易赤字将下降;随着国内储蓄的增加,对外国金融资本满足投资需求的需求将减少。 因此,经常提出的减少美国贸易赤字的政策建议是增加私人储蓄 — — 尽管如何提高总储蓄率确实有争议。As a third scenario, imagine that the government budget deficit increased dramatically, while domestic investment and private savings remained unchanged. This scenario occurred in the U.S. economy in the mid-1980s. The federal budget deficit increased from $79 billion in 1981 to $221 billion in 1986—an increase in the demand for financial capital of $142 billion. The current account balance collapsed from a surplus of $5 billion in 1981 to a deficit of $147 million in 1986—an increase in the supply of financial capital from abroad of $152 billion. The two numbers do not match exactly, since in the real world, private savings and investment did not remain fixed. The connection at that time is clear: a sharp increase in government borrowing increased the U.S. economy’s demand for financial capital, and that increase was primarily supplied by foreign investors through the trade deficit. The following Work It Out feature walks you through a scenario in which domestic savings has to rise by a certain amount to reduce a trade deficit.
::第三种设想是,想象一下政府预算赤字急剧增加,而国内投资和私人储蓄却保持不变。这种情形发生在1980年代中期的美国经济。联邦预算赤字从1981年的790亿美元增加到1986年的2,210亿美元,对金融资本的需求增加了1,420亿美元。 经常账户余额从1981年的50亿美元盈余下降到1986年的1.47亿美元赤字 — — 国外金融资本供应增加了1,520亿美元。 这个数字并不完全吻合,因为在现实世界中,私人储蓄和投资没有固定下来。 当时的关联是显而易见的:政府借贷的急剧增长增加了美国对金融资本的需求,而这一增长主要是由外国投资者通过贸易赤字提供的。 随后的工作表现在一种情景中,即国内储蓄必须增加一定数额才能减少贸易赤字。Short-Term Movements in the Business Cycle and the Trade Balance
::商业周期和贸易平衡的短期流动In the short run, trade imbalances can be affected by whether an economy is in a recession or on the upswing. A recession tends to make a trade deficit smaller, or a trade surplus larger, while a period of strong economic growth tends to make a trade deficit larger, or a trade surplus smaller.
::短期而言,贸易失衡可能受经济处于衰退还是上升趋势的影响。 衰退往往使贸易赤字减少,贸易盈余增加,而经济强劲增长的时期则使贸易赤字增加,贸易盈余减少。As an example, note that the U.S. trade deficit declined by almost half from 2006 to 2009. One primary reason for this change is that during the recession, as the U.S. economy slowed down, it purchased fewer of all goods, including fewer imports from abroad. However, buying power abroad fell less, and so U.S. exports did not fall by as much.
::举例来说,请注意美国贸易赤字从2006年到2009年下降了近一半。 这一变化的主要原因之一是,在经济衰退期间,随着美国经济放缓,美国购买的商品减少了,包括从国外进口的商品也减少了。 然而,国外购买力的下降减少了,因此美国的出口并没有减少多少。Conversely, in the mid-2000s, when the U.S. trade deficit became very large, a contributing short-term reason is that the U.S. economy was growing. As a result, there was lots of aggressive buying in the U.S. economy, including the buying of imports. Thus, a rapidly growing domestic economy is often accompanied by a trade deficit (or a much lower trade surplus), while a slowing or recessionary domestic economy is accompanied by a trade surplus (or a much lower trade deficit).
::相反,在20世纪20年代中期,当美国贸易赤字变得非常巨大时,造成短期原因的一个原因就是美国经济正在增长。 结果,美国经济中出现了大量激进的购买,包括进口品的购买。 因此,国内经济的快速增长往往伴随着贸易赤字(或贸易顺差要低得多 ) , 而国内经济的放缓或衰退则伴随着贸易顺差(或贸易逆差要低得多 ) 。When the trade deficit rises, it necessarily means a greater net inflow of foreign financial capital. The national saving and investment identity teaches that the rest of the economy can absorb this inflow of foreign financial capital in several different ways. For example, the additional inflow of financial capital from abroad could be offset by reduced private savings, leaving domestic investment and public saving unchanged. Alternatively, the inflow of foreign financial capital could result in higher domestic investment, leaving private and public saving unchanged. Yet another possibility is that the inflow of foreign financial capital could be absorbed by greater government borrowing, leaving domestic saving and investment unchanged. The national saving and investment identity does not specify which of these scenarios, alone or in combination, will occur—only that one of them must occur.
::当贸易赤字上升时,它必然意味着外国金融资本的净流入量增加。 国民储蓄和投资身份表明,其他经济体可以通过几种不同的方式吸收外国金融资本的流入量。 例如,国外金融资本的流入量的增加可以由私人储蓄的减少来抵消,使国内投资和公共储蓄保持不变。 或者,外国金融资本的流入可能导致国内投资增加,使私人和公共储蓄保持不变。 另一种可能性是,外国金融资本的流入量可以通过政府借贷的增加来吸收,使国内储蓄和投资保持不变。 国民储蓄和投资身份没有说明这些情形中的哪一种将单独或合并发生 — — 只有其中一种情况必须发生。The national saving and investment identity is based on the relationship that the total quantity of financial capital supplied from all sources must equal the total quantity of financial capital demanded from all sources. If S is private saving, T is taxes, G is government spending, M is imports, X is exports, and I is investment, then for an economy with a current account deficit and a budget deficit:
::国民储蓄和投资的特征是基于一种关系,即从所有来源提供的金融资本总量必须等于所有来源所需的金融资本总量。 如果S是私人储蓄,T是税收,G是政府支出,M是进口,X是出口,而I是投资,那么对于经常账户赤字和预算赤字的经济体来说:Supply of financial capital = Demand for financial capital
::提供金融资本=对金融资本的需求S + (M – X) = I + (G – T)
::S+ (M - X) = I + (G - T)A recession tends to increase the trade balance (meaning a higher trade surplus or lower trade deficit), while economic boom will tend to decrease the trade balance (meaning a lower trade surplus or a larger trade deficit).
::衰退倾向于增加贸易平衡(意味着贸易顺差增加或贸易逆差减少),而经济繁荣则倾向于减少贸易平衡(意味着贸易顺差减少或贸易逆差增加)。The Pros and Cons of Trade Deficits and Surpluses
::贸易赤字和盈余的利弊Because flows of trade always involve flows of financial payments, flows of international trade are actually the same as flows of international financial capital. The question of whether trade deficits or surpluses are good or bad for an economy is, in economic terms, exactly the same question as whether it is a good idea for an economy to rely on net inflows of financial capital from abroad or to make net investments of financial capital abroad. Conventional wisdom often holds that borrowing money is foolhardy, and that a prudent country, like a prudent person, should always rely on its own resources. While it is certainly possible to borrow too much—as anyone with an overloaded credit card can testify—borrowing at certain times can also make sound economic sense. For both individuals and countries, there is no economic merit in a policy of abstaining from participation in financial capital markets.
::由于贸易流动总是涉及金融支付流动,国际贸易流动实际上与国际金融资本流动相同,就经济而言,贸易赤字或顺差对一个经济体是好还是坏的问题与一个经济体依赖国外资金净流入或对国外资金进行净投资是否是一个好主意的问题完全相同,传统智慧往往认为,借款是愚蠢的,谨慎的国家像谨慎的人一样,应该始终依赖自己的资源,当然,借款过多是可能的,因为持有过量信用卡的人可以证明,在一定时间借款也具有良好的经济意义,对个人和国家来说,不参与金融资本市场的政策都没有经济价值。It makes economic sense to borrow when you are buying something with a long-run payoff; that is, when you are making an investment. For this reason, it can make economic sense to borrow for a college education, because the education will typically allow you to earn higher wages, and so to repay the loan and still come out ahead. It can also make sense for a business to borrow in order to purchase a machine that will last 10 years, as long as the machine will increase output and profits by more than enough to repay the loan. Similarly, it can make economic sense for a national economy to borrow from abroad, as long as the money is wisely invested in ways that will tend to raise the nation’s economic growth over time. Then, it will be possible for the national economy to repay the borrowed money over time and still end up better off than before.
::在购买具有长期回报的东西时,借款在经济上是有道理的;也就是说,在投资时。 因此,为大学教育借款在经济上是有道理的,因为教育通常允许你赚取更高的工资,从而偿还贷款,然后继续走下去。 企业借钱以购买机器也是合理的,只要机器能增加产出和利润,超过偿还贷款的足够数量。 同样,国民经济从国外借钱也可以在经济上是有道理的,只要资金投资明智,能够逐渐提高国家经济增长。 之后,国民经济有可能在一段时间内偿还借来的钱,最终仍然比以前更好。One vivid example of a country that borrowed heavily from abroad, invested wisely, and did perfectly well is the United States during the nineteenth century. The United States ran a trade deficit in 40 of the 45 years from 1831 to 1875, which meant that it was importing capital from abroad over that time. However, that financial capital was, by and large, invested in projects like railroads that brought a substantial economic payoff.
::一个从国外大量借款、明智地投资并且做得非常好的国家的生动例子就是19世纪的美国。 美国从1831年到1875年的45年中40年出现贸易赤字,这意味着美国在1831年到1875年的45年中40年从国外进口资本。 然而,金融资本基本上投资于铁路等项目,从而带来巨大的经济回报。A more recent example along these lines is the experience of South Korea, which had trade deficits during much of the 1970s—and so was an importer of capital over that time. However, South Korea also had high rates of investment in physical plant and equipment, and its economy grew rapidly. From the mid-1980s into the mid-1990s, South Korea often had trade surpluses—that is, it was repaying its past borrowing by sending capital abroad.
::这方面最近的一个例子是南朝鲜的经验,南朝鲜在1970年代的大部分时间里存在贸易逆差,而当时的资本进口国也是如此,然而,南朝鲜在工厂和设备方面的投资率也很高,其经济也迅速增长。 从1980年代中期到1990年代中期,南朝鲜经常有贸易顺差 — — 也就是说,南朝鲜通过向国外输出资本来偿还过去的借款。In contrast, some countries have run large trade deficits, borrowed heavily in global capital markets, and ended up in all kinds of trouble. Two specific sorts of trouble are worth examining. First, a borrower nation can find itself in a bind if the incoming funds from abroad are not invested in a way that leads to increased productivity. Several of the large economies of Latin America, including Mexico and Brazil, ran large trade deficits and borrowed heavily from abroad in the 1970s, but the inflow of financial capital did not boost productivity sufficiently, which meant that these countries faced enormous troubles repaying the money borrowed when economic conditions shifted during the 1980s. Similarly, it appears that a number of African nations that borrowed foreign funds in the 1970s and 1980s did not invest in productive economic assets. As a result, several of those countries later faced large interest payments, with no economic growth to show for the borrowed funds.
::相比之下,一些国家贸易赤字巨大,大量借入全球资本市场,最终陷入了各种麻烦。 有两个具体的麻烦值得研究。 首先,如果来自国外的资金没有以提高生产力的方式投资国外资金,借款国就会陷入困境。 包括墨西哥和巴西在内的拉丁美洲一些大型经济体在1970年代出现巨额贸易赤字,从国外大量借入,但金融资本的流入并未充分提高生产力,这意味着这些国家在1980年代经济条件发生变化时,在偿还借款方面面临巨大困难。 同样,一些在1970年代和1980年代借入外国资金的非洲国家似乎没有投资于生产性经济资产。 结果,其中一些国家后来面临巨额利息支付,而没有经济增长来证明借出资金。Are trade deficits always harmful?
::贸易赤字是否总是有害的?For most years of the nineteenth century, U.S. imports exceeded exports and the U.S. economy had a trade deficit. Yet the string of trade deficits did not hold back the economy at all; instead, the trade deficits contributed to the strong economic growth that gave the U.S. economy the highest per capita GDP in the world by around 1900.
::在十九世纪的大部分几年里,美国进口超过了出口,美国经济也出现了贸易赤字。 然而,一系列贸易赤字并没有抑制经济;相反,贸易赤字促成了强劲的经济增长,使美国经济在1900年左右成为世界人均GDP最高的国家。The U.S. trade deficits meant that the U.S. economy was receiving a net inflow of foreign capital from abroad. Much of that foreign capital flowed into two areas of investment—railroads and public infrastructure like roads, water systems, and schools—which were important to helping the growth of the U.S. economy.
::美国的贸易赤字意味着美国经济正从国外净流入外国资本。 大部分外国资本流入两个领域 — — 铁路和公路、供水系统和学校等公共基础设施 — — 对帮助美国经济增长非常重要。The effect of foreign investment capital on U.S. economic growth should not be overstated. In most years the foreign financial capital represented no more than 6–10% of the funds used for overall physical investment in the economy. Nonetheless, the trade deficit and the accompanying investment funds from abroad were clearly a help, not a hindrance, to the U.S. economy in the nineteenth century.
::外国投资资本对美国经济增长的影响不应该被夸大。 在大多数年份,外国金融资本只占用于经济整体实物投资的资金的不到6-10%。 尽管如此,贸易赤字和国外投资资金显然对十九世纪的美国经济是一种帮助,而不是障碍。A second “trouble” is: What happens if the foreign money flows in, and then suddenly flows out again? This scenario was raised at the start of the chapter. In the mid-1990s, a number of countries in East Asia—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea—ran large trade deficits and imported capital from abroad. However, in 1997 and 1998 many foreign investors became concerned about the health of these economies and quickly pulled their money out of stock and bond markets, real estate, and banks. The extremely rapid departure of that foreign capital staggered the banking systems and economies of these countries, plunging them into a deep recession.
::第二个“麻烦”是:如果外国资金流入,然后突然再次流出,会发生什么情况?这一假设是在这一章的开头提出来的。 在1990年代中期,东亚的一些国家 — — 泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和韩国 — — 出现了巨大的贸易赤字和国外进口资本。 然而,在1997年和1998年,许多外国投资者开始关注这些经济体的健康状况,并迅速将其资金从股票和债券市场、房地产和银行中抽出。 外国资本极快地冲破了这些国家的银行体系和经济,使它们陷入了深度衰退。While a trade deficit is not always harmful, there is no guarantee that running a trade surplus will bring robust economic health. For example, Germany and Japan ran substantial trade surpluses for most of the last three decades. Regardless of their persistent trade surpluses, both countries have experienced occasional recessions and neither country has had especially robust annual growth in recent years
::尽管贸易赤字并不总是有害于贸易赤字,但不能保证贸易顺差会带来强劲的经济健康。 比如,在过去三十年的大部分时间里,德国和日本都拥有巨大的贸易顺差。 尽管两国贸易顺差持续不减,但两国都偶尔经历衰退,而且两国都没有近年来特别强劲的年增长率。The sheer size and persistence of the U.S. trade deficits and inflows of foreign capital since the 1980s are a legitimate cause for concern. The huge U.S. economy will not be destabilized by an outflow of international capital as easily as, say, the comparatively tiny economies of Thailand and Indonesia were in 1997–1998. Even an economy that is not knocked down, however, can still be shaken. American policymakers should certainly be paying attention to those cases where a pattern of extensive and sustained current account deficits and foreign borrowing has gone badly—if only as a cautionary tale.
::20世纪80年代以来,美国贸易赤字和外国资本流入的庞大规模和持久性是引起关注的合理原因。 美国巨大的经济不会像1997-1998年泰国和印度尼西亚相对较小的经济体那样容易地因为国际资本外流而动荡不安。 但是,即使是一个没有被击倒的经济,也仍然可以动摇。 美国决策者当然应该关注那些经常账户大量持续赤字和外国借款模式已经严重恶化的案例 — — 哪怕只是作为一个警告性的故事。Are trade surpluses always beneficial? Considering Japan since the 1990s.
::贸易顺差是否总是有利可图?Perhaps no economy around the world is better known for its trade surpluses than Japan. Since 1990, the size of these surpluses has often been near $100 billion per year. When Japan’s economy was growing vigorously in the 1960s and 1970s, its large trade surpluses were often described, especially by non-economists, as either a cause or a result of its robust economic health. But from a standpoint of economic growth, Japan’s economy has been teetering in and out of recession since 1990, with real GDP growth averaging only about 1% per year, and an unemployment rate that has been creeping higher. Clearly, a whopping trade surplus is no guarantee of economic good health.
::也许全世界没有哪个经济体比日本更能以贸易顺差闻名于世。 自1990年以来,这些顺差的规模往往每年近1 000亿美元。 当日本经济在1960年代和1970年代强劲增长时,其巨大的贸易顺差常常被描述为其强劲经济健康的原因或结果 — — 特别是非经济主义者。 但从经济增长的角度来看,日本经济自1990年以来一直处于衰退中和衰退之外,实际GDP增长率每年平均只有约1 % , 失业率不断攀升。 显然,巨额贸易顺差并不能保证经济健康。Instead, Japan’s trade surplus reflects that Japan has a very high rate of domestic savings, more than the Japanese economy can invest domestically, and so the extra funds are invested abroad. In Japan’s slow economy, the growth of consumption is relatively low, which also means that consumption of imports is relatively low. Thus, Japan’s exports continually exceed its imports, leaving the trade surplus continually high. Recently, Japan’s trade surpluses began to deteriorate. In 2013, Japan ran a trade deficit due to the high cost of imported oil.
::相反,日本的贸易顺差反映出日本国内储蓄率非常高,比日本经济能在国内投资的还多,因此额外资金可以在国外投资。 在日本经济缓慢的情况下,消费增长相对较低,这也意味着进口消费相对较低。 因此,日本的出口持续超过进口,贸易顺差持续居高不下。 最近,日本的贸易顺差开始恶化。 2013年,日本由于进口石油成本高而出现贸易逆差。Trade surpluses are no guarantee of economic health, and trade deficits are no guarantee of economic weakness. Either trade deficits or trade surpluses can work out well or poorly, depending on whether the corresponding flows of financial capital are wisely invested.
::贸易顺差不是经济健康保障,贸易逆差也不是经济疲软的保障。 贸易逆差或贸易顺差要么可以顺利解决,要么只能解决,取决于相应的金融资本流动是否明智地投资。The Difference between Level of Trade and the Trade Balance
::贸易水平与贸易平衡之间的差别A nation’s level of trade may at first sound like much the same issue as the balance of trade, but these two are actually quite separate. It is perfectly possible for a country to have a very high level of trade—measured by its exports of goods and services as a share of its GDP—while it also has a near-balance between exports and imports. A high level of trade indicates that a good portion of the nation’s production is exported. It is also possible for a country’s trade to be a relatively low share of GDP, relative to global averages, but for the imbalance between its exports and its imports to be quite large.
::一个国家的贸易水平最初可能听起来与贸易平衡问题大致相同,但两者实际上是完全分开的。 一个国家完全有可能拥有极高的贸易水平 — — 以其商品和服务出口占GDP的比例来衡量 — — 而其出口和进口之间也接近平衡。 高水平的贸易表明该国生产中有很大一部分是出口的。 相对于全球平均水平而言,一个国家的贸易在GDP中的比例也相对较低,但出口与进口之间的不平衡却相当大。A country’s level of trade tells how much of its production it exports. This is measured by the percent of exports out of GDP. It indicates how globalized an economy is. Some countries, such as Germany, have a high level of trade—they export 50% of their total production. The balance of trade tells us if the country is running a trade surplus or trade deficit. A country can have a low level of trade but a high trade deficit. (For example, the United States only exports 14% of GDP, but it has a trade deficit of $560 billion.)
::一个国家的贸易水平能说明它出口的产量的多少。这是以出口占GDP的百分比来衡量的。它能说明一个经济是如何全球化的。德国等一些国家的贸易水平很高 — — 它们出口了总产量的50 % 。 贸易平衡能告诉我们这个国家是否出现贸易盈余或贸易赤字。 一个国家的贸易水平很低,但贸易赤字却很高。 (例如,美国只出口GDP的14 % , 但贸易赤字为5600亿美元。 )Three factors strongly influence a nation’s level of trade: the size of its economy, its geographic location, and its history of trade. Large economies like the United States can do much of their trading internally, while small economies like Sweden have less ability to provide what they want internally and tend to have higher ratios of exports and imports to GDP. Nations that are neighbors tend to trade more, since costs of transportation and communication are lower. Moreover, some nations have long and established patterns of international trade, while others do not.
::三大因素强烈地影响了一个国家的贸易水平:其经济规模、地理位置和贸易历史。 美国等大型经济体可以在内部做大部分贸易,而瑞典等小型经济体在内部提供自己想要的东西的能力较低,而且往往进出口与GDP的比率较高。 作为邻国的国家往往贸易量更多,因为运输和通信成本较低。 此外,一些国家有着长期既定的国际贸易模式,而其他国家则没有。Consequently, a relatively small economy like Sweden, with many nearby trading partners across Europe and a long history of foreign trade, has a high level of trade. Brazil and India, which are fairly large economies that have often sought to inhibit trade in recent decades, have lower levels of trade. Whereas, the United States and Japan are extremely large economies that have comparatively few nearby trading partners. Both countries actually have quite low levels of trade by world standards. The ratio of exports to GDP in either the United States or in Japan is about half of the world average.
::因此,像瑞典这样的相对较小的经济体,其贸易水平很高,其贸易伙伴遍布欧洲,贸易伙伴众多,对外贸易历史悠久。 巴西和印度是近几十年来经常试图抑制贸易的相当大经济体,它们的贸易水平较低。 而美国和日本则是极为庞大的经济体,其贸易伙伴相对较少。这两个国家按照世界标准的贸易水平实际上都相当低。 美国或日本的出口与GDP的比率都相当于世界平均水平的一半左右。The balance of trade is a separate issue from the level of trade. The United States has a low level of trade but had enormous trade deficits for most years from the mid-1980s into the 2000s. Japan has a low level of trade by world standards but has typically shown large trade surpluses in recent decades. Nations like Germany and the United Kingdom have medium to high levels of trade by world standards, but Germany had a moderate trade surplus in 2008, while the United Kingdom had a moderate trade deficit. Their trade picture was roughly in balance in the late 1990s. Sweden had a high level of trade and a large trade surplus in 2007, while Mexico had a high level of trade and a moderate trade deficit that same year.
::贸易平衡是与贸易水平分开的单独问题:美国的贸易水平较低,但从1980年代中期到2000年代的多数年份都存在巨大的贸易逆差;日本按世界标准的贸易水平较低,但近几十年来通常表现出巨大的贸易顺差;德国和联合王国等国家按世界标准的贸易水平中等到高,但2008年德国的贸易顺差不大,而联合王国的贸易逆差则不大;1990年代后期,它们的贸易情况大致保持平衡;2007年瑞典的贸易水平较高,贸易顺差很大;2007年墨西哥的贸易水平较高,贸易逆差也不大。In short, it is quite possible for nations with a relatively low level of trade, expressed as a percentage of GDP, to have relatively large trade deficits. It is also quite possible for nations with a near balance between exports and imports to worry about the consequences of high levels of trade for the economy. It is not inconsistent to believe that a high level of trade is potentially beneficial to an economy, because of the way it allows nations to play to their comparative advantages, and to also be concerned about any macroeconomic instability caused by a long-term pattern of large trade deficits. The following Clear It Up feature discusses how this sort of dynamic played out in Colonial India.
::简言之,贸易水平相对较低的国家,以国内生产总值的百分比表示,很可能出现相对较高的贸易赤字;出口和进口接近平衡的国家,也很有可能担心贸易水平高对经济的影响;认为高水平的贸易可能有利于经济,因为高水平的贸易使各国能够发挥比较优势,也有可能对长期贸易赤字造成的宏观经济不稳定表示关切;随后的《清一色》特征讨论了这种动态在印度殖民地是如何产生的。Are trade surpluses always beneficial? Considering Colonial India
::贸易顺差是否总是有利可图?India was formally under British rule from 1858 to 1947. During that time, India consistently had trade surpluses with Great Britain. Anyone who believes that trade surpluses are a sign of economic strength and dominance while trade deficits are a sign of economic weakness must find this pattern odd, since it would mean that colonial India was successfully dominating and exploiting Great Britain for almost a century—which was not true.
::印度从1858年到1947年正式由英国统治。 在那段时期,印度一直拥有与英国的贸易顺差。 任何认为贸易顺差是经济实力和支配地位的标志而贸易逆差是经济疲软的标志的人都必须发现这种模式很奇怪,因为这将意味着殖民的印度在几乎一个世纪的时间里成功地统治和剥削了英国,而事实并非如此。Instead, India’s trade surpluses with Great Britain meant that each year there was an overall flow of financial capital from India to Great Britain. In India, this flow of financial capital was heavily criticized as the “drain,” and eliminating the drain of financial capital was viewed as one of the many reasons why India would benefit from achieving independence.
::相反,印度与英国的贸易顺差意味着每年都有从印度流向英国的金融资本总流量。 在印度,这种金融资本流量被严厉批评为“人才外流 ” , 消除金融资本外流被视为印度从独立中受益的许多原因之一。Trade deficits can be a good or a bad sign for an economy, and trade surpluses can be a good or a bad sign. Even a trade balance of zero—which just means that a nation is neither a net borrower nor lender in the international economy—can be either a good or bad sign. The fundamental economic question is not whether a nation’s economy is borrowing or lending at all, but whether the particular borrowing or lending in the particular economic conditions of that country makes sense.
::贸易赤字可以是经济的好迹象或坏迹象,贸易盈余也可以是好迹象或坏迹象。 即使是零贸易平衡 — — 这仅仅意味着一国既不是国际经济的净借款人或贷款人 — — 也可能是好迹象或坏迹象。 基本经济问题不在于一国经济是借还是借,而在于该国特定经济状况的特定借款或贷款是否合理。It is interesting to reflect on how public attitudes toward trade deficits and surpluses might change if we could somehow change the labels that people and the news media affix to them. If a trade deficit was called “attracting foreign financial capital”—which accurately describes what a trade deficit means—then trade deficits might look more attractive. Conversely, if a trade surplus were called “shipping financial capital abroad”—which accurately captures what a trade surplus does—then trade surpluses might look less attractive. Either way, the key to understanding trade balances is to understand the relationships between flows of trade and flows of international payments, and what these relationships imply about the causes, benefits, and risks of different kinds of trade balances. The first step along this journey of understanding is to move beyond knee-jerk reactions to terms like “trade surplus,” “trade balance,” and “trade deficit.”
::思考一下公众对于贸易赤字和顺差的态度会如何改变,如果我们能够以某种方式改变人们和新闻媒体对他们的标签。 如果贸易赤字被称作“吸引外国金融资本 ” — —准确地描述了贸易赤字的含义 — — 那么贸易赤字可能显得更具吸引力。 相反,如果贸易顺差被称作“输送国外金融资本 ” — —准确地记录了贸易顺差的作用 — — 那么贸易顺差可能显得不那么有吸引力。 无论是哪种方式,理解贸易平衡与国际支付流动之间的关系的关键是理解贸易流动和国际支付流动之间的关系,以及这些关系对不同贸易平衡的成因、利益和风险意味着什么。 这一理解之旅的第一步是超越“贸易顺差 ” 、 “贸易平衡 ” 和“贸易逆差 ” 等术语。More than Meets the Eye in the Congo
::比在刚果遇到的眼还多Now that you see the big picture, you undoubtedly realize that all of the economic choices you make, such as depositing savings or investing in an international mutual fund, do influence the flow of goods and services as well as the flows of money around the world.
::既然你看到了大局,你无疑意识到 你所做的所有经济选择,例如存款储蓄或投资国际共同基金, 确实影响着货物和服务的流动 以及世界各地的资金的流动。You now know that a trade surplus does not necessarily tell us whether an economy is doing well or not. The Democratic Republic of Congo ran a trade surplus in 2012, as we learned in the beginning of the chapter. Yet its current account balance was –$2.2 billion. However, the return of political stability and the rebuilding in the aftermath of the civil war there has meant a flow of investment and financial capital into the country. In this case, a negative current account balance means the country is being rebuilt—and that is a good thing.
::现在,贸易顺差不一定能告诉我们一个经济体是否运行良好。 正如我们在本章开头所了解的那样,刚果民主共和国在2012年出现了贸易顺差。然而,其经常账户余额为22亿美元。 然而,政治稳定的恢复和内战后重建意味着投资和资金流入该国。 在这种情况下,负经常账户余额意味着该国正在重建 — — 这是好事。There is a difference between the level of a country’s trade and the balance of trade. The level of trade is measured by the percentage of exports out of GDP, or the size of the economy. Small economies that have nearby trading partners and a history of international trade will tend to have higher levels of trade. Larger economies with few nearby trading partners and a limited history of international trade will tend to have lower levels of trade. The level of trade is different from the trade balance. The level of trade depends on a country’s history of trade, its geography, and the size of its economy. A country’s balance of trade is the dollar difference between its exports and imports.
::一国的贸易水平与贸易平衡之间存在差异,贸易水平以出口占GDP的百分比或经济规模来衡量,拥有近邻贸易伙伴和国际贸易历史的小经济体的贸易水平往往较高,贸易水平较低,贸易水平与贸易平衡不同,贸易水平取决于一国的贸易历史、地理和经济规模,贸易平衡是一国进出口之间的美元差额。Trade deficits and trade surpluses are not necessarily good or bad—it depends on the circumstances. Even if a country is borrowing, if that money is invested in productivity-boosting investments it can lead to an improvement in long-term economic growth.
::贸易赤字和贸易顺差不一定是好的或坏的,这取决于情况。 即使一国是借款国,如果这笔钱投资于提高生产力的投资,它也会导致长期经济增长的改善。Introduction to Exchange Rates and International Capital Flows
::介绍汇率和国际资本流动Trade Around the World
::环世界贸易
Is a trade deficit between the United States and the European Union good or bad for the U.S. economy? (Credit: modification of work by Milad Mosapoor/Wikimedia Commons)Is a Stronger Dollar Good for the U.S. Economy?
::美元坚挺对美国经济有利吗?From 2002 to 2008, the U.S. dollar lost more than a quarter of its value in foreign currency markets. On January 1, 2002, one dollar was worth 1.11 euros. On April 24, 2008 it hit its lowest point with a dollar being worth 0.64 euros. During this period, the trade deficit between the United States and the European Union grew from a yearly total of approximately –85.7 billion dollars in 2002 to 95.8 billion dollars in 2008. Was this a good thing or a bad thing for the U.S. economy?
::从2002年到2008年,美元在外币市场上损失了超过四分之一的美元价值。 2002年1月1日,一美元值1.11欧元。 2008年4月24日,美元值0.64欧元,创下最低点。 在此期间,美国与欧洲联盟的贸易赤字从2002年的每年总额约857亿美元增长到2008年的958亿美元。 这对美国经济是好事还是坏事?We live in a global world. U.S. consumers buy trillions of dollars worth of imported goods and services each year, not just from the European Union, but from all over the world. U.S. businesses sell trillions of dollars’ worth of exports. U.S. citizens, businesses, and governments invest trillions of dollars abroad every year. Foreign investors, businesses, and governments invest trillions of dollars in the United States each year. Indeed, foreigners are a major buyer of U.S. federal debt. Many people feel that a weaker dollar is bad for America, that it’s an indication of a weak economy. But is it?
::我们生活在一个全球性的世界中。 美国消费者每年购买价值数万亿美元的进口货物和服务,不仅来自欧盟,而且来自全世界。 美国企业销售价值数万亿美元的出口品。 美国公民、企业和政府每年在国外投资数万亿美元。 外国投资者、企业和政府每年在美国投资数万亿美元。 事实上,外国人是美国联邦债务的主要买主。 许多人认为美元贬值对美国不利,这说明美国经济疲软。 但是,这是不是?The world has over 150 different currencies, from the Afghanistan afghani and the Albanian lek all the way through the alphabet to the Zambian kwacha and the Zimbabwean dollar. For international economic transactions, households or firms will wish to exchange one currency for another. Perhaps the need for exchanging currencies will come from a German firm that exports products to Russia, but then wishes to exchange the Russian rubles it has earned for euros, so that the firm can pay its workers and suppliers in Germany. Perhaps it will be a South African firm that wishes to purchase a mining operation in Angola, but to make the purchase it must convert South African rand to Angolan kwanza. Perhaps it will be an American tourist visiting China, who wishes to convert U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan to pay the hotel bill.
::全世界有150多种不同的货币,从阿富汗阿夫干尼和阿尔巴尼亚列克一直到赞比亚克瓦查和津巴布韦元。对于国际经济交易,家庭或公司愿意将一种货币换成另一种货币。也许交换货币的需要来自一家向俄罗斯出口产品的德国公司,但随后希望用它赚到的俄罗斯卢布换成欧元,以便该公司能够支付其在德国的工人和供应商的费用。也许这是一家南非公司,它想在安哥拉购买采矿业务,但购买时必须把南非兰德兑换成安哥拉宽扎。也许将是一位访问中国的美国游客,他想将美元兑换成中国人民币,以支付旅馆费用。Exchange rates can sometimes change very swiftly. For example, in the United Kingdom the pound was worth $2 in U.S. currency in spring 2008, but was worth only $1.40 in U.S. currency six months later. For firms engaged in international buying, selling, lending, and borrowing, these swings in exchange rates can have an enormous effect on profits.
::汇率有时会发生非常迅速的变化。 比如,2008年春,英国的英镑以美国货币计值2美元,但6个月后仅以美国货币计值1.40美元。 对于从事国际买卖、销售、借贷和借贷的公司来说,这些汇率波动会对利润产生巨大影响。This chapter discusses the international dimension of money, which involves conversions from one currency to another at an exchange rate. An exchange rate is nothing more than a price—that is, the price of one currency in terms of another currency—and so they can be analyzed with the tools of supply and demand. The first module of this chapter begins with an overview of foreign exchange markets: their size, their main participants, and the vocabulary for discussing movements of exchange rates. The following module uses demand and supply graphs to analyze some of the main factors that cause shifts in exchange rates. A final module then brings the central bank and monetary policy back into the picture. Each country must decide whether to allow its exchange rate to be determined in the market, or have the central bank intervene in the exchange rate market. All the choices for exchange rate policy involve distinctive tradeoffs and risks.
::本章讨论了货币的国际层面,即货币从一种货币兑换成另一种货币。汇率只不过是一种价格 — — 即一种货币以另一种货币计算的价格 — — 以便用供需工具进行分析。本章的第一个单元首先概述外汇市场:其规模、主要参与者和讨论汇率变化的词汇。以下单元使用需求和供应图分析导致汇率变化的一些主要因素。最后单元然后将中央银行和货币政策带回到现实中。每个国家必须决定是让市场确定其汇率,还是让中央银行干预汇率市场。 汇率政策的所有选择都涉及不同的交易和风险。How the Foreign Exchange Market Works
::外汇市场如何运作Most countries have different currencies, but not all. Sometimes small economies use the currency of an economically larger neighbor. For example, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama have decided to dollarize—that is, to use the U.S. dollar as their currency. Sometimes nations share a common currency. A large-scale example of a common currency is the decision by 17 European nations—including some very large economies such as France, Germany, and Italy—to replace their former currencies with the euro. With these exceptions duly noted, most of the international economy takes place in a situation of multiple national currencies in which both people and firms need to convert from one currency to another when selling, buying, hiring, borrowing, traveling, or investing across national borders. The market in which people or firms use one currency to purchase another currency is called the foreign exchange market.
::大多数国家都有不同的货币,但并非全部。 有时,小经济体使用经济规模较大的邻国的货币。 例如,厄瓜多尔、萨尔瓦多和巴拿马决定使用美元化 — — 即使用美元作为其货币。 有时,各国共用一种共同货币。 大规模共同货币的一个例子是17个欧洲国家 — — 包括法国、德国和意大利等一些大经济体 — — 决定用欧元取代它们以前的货币。 除这些例外外,大多数国际经济是在多种国家货币的情况下发生的,其中人民和公司在出售、购买、雇用、借贷、旅行或跨国投资时需要从一种货币转换为另一种货币。 人民或公司使用一种货币购买另一种货币的市场被称为外汇市场。You have encountered the basic concept of exchange rates in earlier chapters when we previously discussed how exchange rates are used to compare GDP statistics from countries where GDP is measured in different currencies. These earlier examples, however, took the actual exchange rate as given, as if it were a fact of nature. In reality, the exchange rate is a price—the price of one currency expressed in terms of units of another currency. The key framework for analyzing prices, whether in this course, any other economics course, in public policy, or business examples, is the operation of supply and demand in markets.
::我们以前曾讨论过如何利用汇率来比较以不同货币计量国内总产值的国家的国内总产值统计数字,但前面的例子把实际汇率当作是事实,实际上,汇率是一种价格——一种货币以另一种货币单位表示的价格。 分析价格的关键框架,无论是在这一过程中,公共政策中的任何其他经济学课程,还是商业实例,是市场供求的运作情况。The Extraordinary Size of the Foreign Exchange Markets
::外汇市场的特殊规模The quantities traded in foreign exchange markets are breathtaking. A survey was done in April 2013 by the Bank of International Settlements, an international organization for banks and the financial industry, found that $5.3 trillion per day was traded on foreign exchange markets, which makes the foreign exchange market the largest market in the world economy. In contrast, 2013 U.S. real GDP was $15.8 trillion per year .
::外汇市场交易量惊人。 2013年4月,国际清算银行(一家国际银行和金融业组织)进行了一项调查,发现外汇市场每天交易5.3万亿美元,使外汇市场成为世界经济中最大的市场。 相反,2013年美国实际GDP为每年15.8万亿美元。shows the currencies most commonly traded on foreign exchange markets. The foreign exchange market is dominated by the U.S. dollar, the currencies used by nations in Western Europe (the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar), and the Japanese yen.
::外汇市场以美元、西欧国家使用的货币(欧元、英镑和澳大利亚元)以及日元为主。Currencies Traded Most on Foreign Exchange Markets as of April, 2013(Source: http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)
::截至2013年4月,外汇市场交易量最多(资料来源:http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)Currency
::货币货币货币货币% Daily Share
::% 每日份额U.S. dollar
::美元 美元87.0%
Euro
::欧元33.4%
Japanese yen
::日元日元23.0%
British pound
::英镑11.8%
Australian dollar
::澳大利亚元8.6%
Swiss franc
::瑞士法郎5.2%
Canadian dollar
::加拿大元4.6%
Mexican peso
::墨西哥比索2.5%
Chinese yuan
::中国人民币2.2%
Demanders and Suppliers of Currency in Foreign Exchange Markets
::外汇市场货币需求者和供应商In foreign exchange markets, demand and supply become closely interrelated, because a person or firm who demands one currency must at the same time supply another currency—and vice versa. To get a sense of this, it is useful to consider four groups of people or firms who participate in the market: (1) firms that are involved in international trade of goods and services; (2) tourists visiting other countries; (3) international investors buying ownership (or part-ownership) of a foreign firm; (4) international investors making financial investments that do not involve ownership. Let’s consider these categories in turn.
::在外汇市场中,供需关系密切,因为要求一种货币的个人或公司必须同时供应另一种货币 — — 反之亦然。 为了了解这一点,应该考虑参与市场的四组人或公司Firms that buy and sell on international markets find that their costs for workers, suppliers, and investors are measured in the currency of the nation where their production occurs, but their revenues from sales are measured in the currency of the different nation where their sales happened. So, a Chinese firm exporting abroad will earn some other currency—say, U.S. dollars—but will need Chinese yuan to pay the workers, suppliers, and investors who are based in China. In the foreign exchange markets, this firm will be a supplier of U.S. dollars and a demander of Chinese yuan.
::在国际市场上买卖的公司发现,其工人、供应商和投资者的成本是以其生产所在国的货币来衡量的,但其销售收入则以其销售所在国的货币来衡量。 因此,在国外出口的中国公司将赚取其他货币 — — 比如美国美元 — — 但需要中国人民币来支付总部设在中国的工人、供应商和投资者。 在外汇市场上,这家公司将是美元供应商和中国人民币需求者。International tourists will supply their home currency to receive the currency of the country they are visiting. For example, an American tourist who is visiting China will supply U.S. dollars into the foreign exchange market and demand Chinese yuan.
::国际游客将供应其本国货币,以接收他们访问的国家的货币。 比如,一位美国游客访问中国,将向外汇市场提供美元,并需求中国元。Financial investments that cross international boundaries, and require exchanging currency, are often divided into two categories. Foreign direct investment (FDI) refers to purchasing a firm (at least ten percent) in another country or starting up a new enterprise in a foreign country For example, in 2008 the Belgian beer-brewing company InBev bought the U.S. beer-maker Anheuser-Busch for $52 billion. To make this purchase of a U.S. firm, InBev would have to supply euros (the currency of Belgium) to the foreign exchange market and demand U.S. dollars.
::跨越国际边界、需要兑换货币的金融投资往往分为两类。 外国直接投资是指在另一国购买公司(至少10%)或在外国开办新企业。 例如,2008年,比利时啤酒酿酒公司InBev以520亿美元购买了美国啤酒制造商Anheuser-Busch。 为了购买一家美国公司,InBev必须向外汇市场和需求美元提供欧元(比利时货币 ) 。The other kind of international financial investment, portfolio investment, involves a purely financial investment that does not entail any management responsibility. An example would be a U.S. financial investor who purchased bonds issued by the government of the United Kingdom, or deposited money in a British bank. To make such investments, the American investor would supply U.S. dollars in the foreign exchange market and demand British pounds.
::另一种国际金融投资 — — 证券投资 — — 纯粹金融投资并不包含任何管理责任。 一个例子就是购买联合王国政府发行的债券或将钱存入英国银行的美国金融投资者。 为了进行这种投资,美国投资者将在外汇市场上提供美元,并需求英镑。Portfolio investment is often linked to expectations about how exchange rates will shift. Look at a U.S. financial investor who is considering purchasing bonds issued in the United Kingdom. For simplicity, ignore any interest paid by the bond (which will be small in the short run anyway) and focus on exchange rates. Say that a British pound is currently worth $1.50 in U.S. currency. However, the investor believes that in a month, the British pound will be worth $1.60 in U.S. currency. Thus, as (a) shows, this investor would change $24,000 for 16,000 British pounds. In a month, if the pound is indeed worth $1.60, then the portfolio investor can trade back to U.S. dollars at the new exchange rate, and have $25,600—a nice profit. A portfolio investor who believes that the foreign exchange rate for the pound will work in the opposite direction can also invest accordingly. Say that an investor expects that the pound, now worth $1.50 in U.S. currency, will decline to $1.40. Then, as shown in 4 (b), that investor could start off with £20,000 in British currency (borrowing the money if necessary), convert it to $30,000 in U.S. currency, wait a month, and then convert back to approximately £21,429 in British currency—again making a nice profit. Of course, this kind of investing comes without guarantees, and an investor will suffer losses if the exchange rates do not move as predicted.
::证券投资往往与对汇率如何变化的预期有关。 看看一个正在考虑购买在英国发行的债券的美国金融投资者,他正在考虑购买在英国发行的债券。为了简洁起见,不理睬债券支付的任何利息(短期内数额很小),而专注于汇率。说英镑目前值1美元1美元。然而,投资者认为,在一个月内,英镑值为1美元160美元。因此,正如(a)所显示的那样,该投资者将因16 000英镑而变换24 000美元。 一个月内,如果英镑确实值160美元,那么证券投资人可以按照新汇率将债券换回美元,而持有25 600美元 — — 一种不错的利润。 一个认为英镑汇率将反方向运作的投资组合投资者也可以相应地投资。 说,投资者预计英镑值为1美元1美元50美元,将降为1.40美元。 然后,正如(b)所显示的那样,如果英国债券确实值为20 000英镑,那么投资者可以开始用英国货币换成20 000英镑(如果必要的话,货币兑换成30 000美元)的汇率将变成30 000美元。- A Portfolio Investor Trying to Benefit from Exchange Rate Movements
Expectations of the future value of a currency can drive demand and supply of that currency in foreign exchange markets.
::对一种货币未来价值的预期会推动外汇市场对该货币的供求。Many portfolio investment decisions are not as simple as betting that the value of the currency will change in one direction or the other. Instead, they involve firms trying to protect themselves from movements in exchange rates. Imagine you are running a U.S. firm that is exporting to France. You have signed a contract to deliver certain products and will receive 1 million euros a year from now. But you do not know how much this contract will be worth in U.S. dollars, because the dollar/euro exchange rate can fluctuate in the next year. Let’s say you want to know for sure what the contract will be worth, and not take a risk that the euro will be worth less in U.S. dollars than it currently is. You can hedge, which means using a financial transaction to protect yourself against a risk from one of your investments (in this case, currency risk from the contract). Specifically, you can sign a financial contract and pay a fee that guarantees you a certain exchange rate one year from now—regardless of what the market exchange rate is at that time. Now, it is possible that the euro will be worth more in dollars a year from now, so your hedging contract will be unnecessary, and you will have paid a fee for nothing. But if the value of the euro in dollars declines, then you are protected by the hedge. Financial contracts like hedging, where parties wish to be protected against exchange rate movements, also commonly lead to a series of portfolio investments by the firm that is receiving a fee to provide the hedge.
::许多证券投资决策并不简单,不如打赌货币的价值会在某一方向或另一方向发生变化。相反,它们涉及公司试图保护自己不受汇率波动的影响。想象一下,你正在经营一家向法国出口的美国公司。你已经签订了一份合同,提供某些产品,从现在起每年将获得100万欧元。但你不知道这一合同价值有多少美元,因为美元/欧元汇率在下一年可能会波动。让我们说,你想知道该合同的价值是多少,而不是冒着欧元价值比目前低的风险。想象一下,你正在经营一家向法国出口的美国公司。你已经签署了一份合同,提供某些产品,从现在每年将获得100万欧元。 具体地说,你可以签署一份金融合同,支付一笔保证你一年以后一定汇率的收费 — — 不论当时的市场汇率是多少。 现在,欧元可能比现在的美元值要低,而不是现在的美元值。 因此,你也可以利用金融交易交易来保护自己免受其中的风险(这里的货币风险 ) 。Both foreign direct investment and portfolio investment involve an investor who supplies domestic currency and demands a foreign currency. With portfolio investment less than ten percent of a company is purchased. As such, portfolio investment is often made with a short term focus. With foreign direct investment more than ten percent of a company is purchased and the investor typically assumes some managerial responsibility; thus foreign direct investment tends to have a more long-run focus. As a practical matter, portfolio investments can be withdrawn from a country much more quickly than foreign direct investments. A U.S. portfolio investor who wants to buy or sell bonds issued by the government of the United Kingdom can do so with a phone call or a few clicks of a computer key. However, a U.S. firm that wants to buy or sell a company, such as one that manufactures automobile parts in the United Kingdom, will find that planning and carrying out the transaction takes a few weeks, even months. 7 summarizes the main categories of demanders and suppliers of currency.
::外国直接投资和证券投资都涉及提供国内货币和需要外币的投资者。如果购买的证券投资不到一家公司的10%,证券投资往往以短期为重点。如果购买的外国直接投资超过一家公司的10%,投资者通常承担一定的管理责任;因此外国直接投资往往具有更长期的焦点。实际上,从一个国家撤出证券投资的速度可能比外国直接投资快得多。如果美国证券投资人想要购买或出售联合王国政府发行的债券,可以打电话或点击几下电脑钥匙。然而,美国公司如果想购买或出售公司,例如制造联合王国汽车零件的公司,就会发现规划和进行交易需要几周甚至几个月的时间。 7个美国证券投资人可以概述主要需求者和货币供应商的类别。The Demand and Supply Line-ups in Foreign Exchange Markets
::外汇市场的需求和供应线Demand for the U.S. Dollar Comes from…
::对美元的需求来自...Supply of the U.S. Dollar Comes from…
::美元供应来自...A U.S. exporting firm that earned foreign currency and is trying to pay U.S.-based expenses
::一家美国出口公司,赚取外汇,并试图支付以美国为基础的开支A foreign firm that has sold imported goods in the United States, earned U.S. dollars, and is trying to pay expenses incurred in its home country
::一家外国公司在美国出售进口货物,赚取美元,并试图支付在本国发生的费用Foreign tourists visiting the United States
::访问美国的外国游客U.S. tourists leaving to visit other countries
::前往其他国家访问的美国游客Foreign investors who wish to make direct investments in the U.S. economy
::希望直接投资美国经济的外国投资者U.S. investors who want to make foreign direct investments in other countries
::想要在其他国家进行外国直接投资的美国投资者Foreign investors who wish to make portfolio investments in the U.S. economy
::希望在美国经济中进行证券投资的外国投资者U.S. investors who want to make portfolio investments in other countries
::想要在其他国家进行证券投资的美国投资者Participants in the Exchange Rate Market
::汇率市场参与者The foreign exchange market does not involve the ultimate suppliers and demanders of foreign exchange literally seeking each other out. If Martina decides to leave her home in Venezuela and take a trip in the United States, she does not need to find a U.S. citizen who is planning to take a vacation in Venezuela and arrange a person-to-person currency trade. Instead, the foreign exchange market works through financial institutions, and it operates on several levels.
::外汇市场并不涉及外汇的最终供应商和需求者真正相互寻找。 如果玛蒂娜决定离开在委内瑞拉的家,前往美国旅行,她不需要找到一个计划到委内瑞拉度假和安排人际货币交易的美国公民。 相反,外汇市场通过金融机构运作,并在几个层面上运作。Most people and firms who are exchanging a substantial quantity of currency go to a bank, and most banks provide foreign exchange as a service to customers. These banks (and a few other firms), known as dealers, then trade the foreign exchange. This is called the interbank market.
::大部分兑换大量货币的人和公司去银行,而大多数银行向客户提供外汇服务。 这些银行(和几家其他公司)被称为经销商,然后进行外汇交易。 这被称为银行间市场。In the world economy, roughly 2,000 firms are foreign exchange dealers. The U.S. economy has less than 100 foreign exchange dealers, but the largest 12 or so dealers carry out more than half the total transactions. The foreign exchange market has no central location, but the major dealers keep a close watch on each other at all times.
::在世界经济中,约有2,000家企业是外汇交易商。 美国经济只有不到100家外汇交易商,但最大的12家左右交易商交易量占总交易量的一半以上。 外汇市场没有中心地点,但主要交易商始终保持密切监视。The foreign exchange market is huge not because of the demands of tourists, firms, or even foreign direct investment, but instead because of portfolio investment and the actions of interlocking foreign exchange dealers. International tourism is a very large industry, involving about $1 trillion per year. Global exports are about 23% of global GDP; which is about $18 trillion per year. Foreign direct investment totaled about $1.4 trillion in 2012. These quantities are dwarfed, however, by the $5.3 trillion per day being traded in foreign exchange markets. Most transactions in the foreign exchange market are for portfolio investment—relatively short-term movements of financial capital between currencies—and because of the actions of the large foreign exchange dealers as they constantly buy and sell with each other.
::外汇市场是巨大的,不是因为游客、公司、甚至外国直接投资的需求,而是因为证券投资和外汇交易商的行动。国际旅游业是一个非常庞大的行业,每年约1万亿美元。全球出口约为全球GDP的23 % ; 约为每年18万亿美元。 2012年外国直接投资总额约为1.4万亿美元。 然而,这些数量比其他外汇市场每天交易的5.3万亿美元相形见绌。 外汇市场的大部分交易都是为了证券投资 — — 相对而言是各货币之间的短期金融资本流动 — — 以及大型外汇交易商不断相互买卖的行动。Strengthening and Weakening Currency
::货币的加强和疲软When the prices of most goods and services change, the price is said to “rise” or “fall.” For exchange rates, the terminology is different. When the exchange rate for a currency rises, so that the currency exchanges for more of other currencies, it is referred to as appreciating or “strengthening.” When the exchange rate for a currency falls, so that a currency trades for less of other currencies, it is referred to as depreciating or “weakening.”
::当大多数商品和服务的价格发生变化时,价格据说是“崛起”或“下跌 ” 。 对于汇率,术语是不同的。 当货币的汇率上升,因此其他货币的货币兑换量增加时,它被称为升值或“加强 ” 。 当货币的汇率下跌,因此其他货币的货币交易量减少时,它被称为贬值或“疲软 ” 。To illustrate the use of these terms, consider the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar since 1980, shown in 5 (a). The vertical axis in 5 (a) shows the price of $1 in U.S. currency, measured in terms of Canadian currency. Clearly, exchange rates can move up and down substantially. A U.S. dollar traded for $1.17 Canadian in 1980. The U.S. dollar appreciated or strengthened to $1.39 Canadian in 1986, depreciated or weakened to $1.15 Canadian in 1991, and then appreciated or strengthened to $1.60 Canadian by early in 2002, fell to roughly $1.20 Canadian in 2009, and then had a sharp spike up and decline in 2009 and 2010. The units in which exchange rates are measured can be confusing, because the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is being measured using a different currency—the Canadian dollar. But exchange rates always measure the price of one unit of currency by using a different currency.
::为了说明这些术语的用法,请参考5(a)所示1980年以来美元与加拿大元之间的汇率。5(a)的垂直轴轴5(a)显示以加拿大货币计量的1美元的美元价格。显然,汇率可以大幅上下。1980年美元兑换1.17加拿大元。1986年美元升值或升值至1.39加拿大元,1991年贬值或疲软至1.15加拿大元,2002年年初升值或升值至1.60加拿大元,2009年降至约1.20加拿大元,2009年和2010年大幅上扬或下降,然后汇率计量的单位可能混乱,因为美元汇率是用不同的货币-加拿大元衡量的。但汇率总是用不同的货币衡量一单位货币的价格。- Strengthen or Appreciate vs. Weaken or Depreciate
Exchange rates move up and down substantially, even between close neighbors like the United States and Canada. The values in (a) are a mirror image of (b); that is, any appreciation of one currency must mean depreciation of the other currency, and vice versa. (Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FXRATECAA618NUPN)
::汇率大幅上下波动,即使是美国和加拿大等近邻之间的汇率也是如此。 (a)中的数值是(b)的镜像;也就是说,任何一种货币升值都必须意味着其他货币的贬值,反之亦然。 (资料来源:http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FXRATECAA618NUPN)In looking at the exchange rate between two currencies, the appreciation or strengthening of one currency must mean the depreciation or weakening of the other. 5 (b) shows the exchange rate for the Canadian dollar, measured in terms of U.S. dollars. The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar measured in Canadian dollars, shown in 5 (a), is a perfect mirror image with the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar measured in U.S. dollars, shown in 5 (b). A fall in the Canada $/U.S. $ ratio means a rise in the U.S. $/Canada $ ratio, and vice versa.
::从两种货币之间的汇率来看,一种货币的升值或升值必须意味着另一种货币的贬值或疲软。 5(b)表示以美元计算的加拿大元汇率,5(a)表示以加拿大元计算的美国元汇率,5(b)表示以美元计算的加拿大元的汇率,5(b)表示的加拿大元的汇率是完美的镜像。 加拿大美元/美国元比率的下降意味着美元/加拿大元比率的上升,反之亦然。With the price of a typical good or service, it is clear that higher prices benefit sellers and hurt buyers, while lower prices benefit buyers and hurt sellers. In the case of exchange rates, where the buyers and sellers are not always intuitively obvious, it is useful to trace through how different participants in the market will be affected by a stronger or weaker currency. Consider, for example, the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on six different groups of economic actors, as shown in : (1) U.S. exporters selling abroad; (2) foreign exporters (that is, firms selling imports in the U.S. economy); (3) U.S. tourists abroad; (4) foreign tourists visiting the United States; (5) U.S. investors (either foreign direct investment or portfolio investment) considering opportunities in other countries; (6) and foreign investors considering opportunities in the U.S. economy.
::以典型的商品或服务的价格计算,价格的提高显然有利于卖方和买方,伤害买方,而价格的降低则有利于买方和卖方。在汇率方面,如果买卖双方并非总能直觉地看得很清楚,那么就有必要从市场的不同参与者如何受到一种更强或更弱的货币的影响来追踪。 例如,考虑到美元升值对六大经济行为者群体的影响,如- How Do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Each Group?
Exchange rate movements affect exporters, tourists, and international investors in different ways.
::汇率波动以不同方式影响出口商、游客和国际投资者。For a U.S. firm selling abroad, a stronger U.S. dollar is a curse. A strong U.S. dollar means that foreign currencies are correspondingly weak. When this exporting firm earns foreign currencies through its export sales, and then converts them back to U.S. dollars to pay workers, suppliers, and investors, the stronger dollar means that the foreign currency buys fewer U.S. dollars than if the currency had not strengthened, and that the firm’s profits (as measured in dollars) fall. As a result, the firm may choose to reduce its exports, or it may raise its selling price, which will also tend to reduce its exports. In this way, a stronger currency reduces a country’s exports.
::对于美国在国外销售的公司来说,美元坚挺是一种诅咒。 美元坚挺意味着外币也相应疲软。 当出口公司通过出口销售赚取外币,然后将其兑换回美元以支付工人、供应商和投资者时,美元坚挺意味着外币购买的美元比货币不坚挺时少,而且公司利润(以美元计)下降。 结果,公司可能选择减少出口,或者提高销售价格,这也会减少出口。 这样,更坚挺的货币会减少一国的出口。Conversely, for a foreign firm selling in the U.S. economy, a stronger dollar is a blessing. Each dollar earned through export sales, when traded back into the home currency of the exporting firm, will now buy more of the home currency than expected before the dollar had strengthened. As a result, the stronger dollar means that the importing firm will earn higher profits than expected. The firm will seek to expand its sales in the U.S. economy, or it may reduce prices, which will also lead to expanded sales. In this way, a stronger U.S. dollar means that consumers will purchase more from foreign producers, expanding the country’s level of imports.
::相反,对于一个在美国经济中销售的外国公司来说,美元坚挺是一种祝福。 出口销售赚取的每一美元,如果兑换回出口公司的本国货币,现在购买的本国货币将超过美元升值前的预期。 因此,美元坚挺意味着进口公司将获得高于预期的利润。 该公司将寻求扩大在美国经济中的销售,或者降低价格,这也将导致销售量的扩大。 这样,美元坚挺意味着消费者将从外国生产者那里购买更多商品,从而扩大国家的进口水平。For a U.S. tourist abroad, who is exchanging U.S. dollars for foreign currency as necessary, a stronger U.S. dollar is a benefit. The tourist receives more foreign currency for each U.S. dollar, and consequently the cost of the trip in U.S. dollars is lower. When a country’s currency is strong, it is a good time for citizens of that country to tour abroad. Imagine a U.S. tourist who has saved up $5,000 for a trip to South Africa. In January 2008, $1 bought 7 South African rand, so the tourist had 35,000 rand to spend. In January 2009, $1 bought 10 rand, so the tourist had 50,000 rand to spend. By January 2010, $1 bought only 7.5 rand. Clearly, 2009 was the year for U.S. tourists to visit South Africa. For foreign visitors to the United States, the opposite pattern holds true. A relatively stronger U.S. dollar means that their own currencies are relatively weaker, so that as they shift from their own currency to U.S. dollars, they have fewer U.S. dollars than previously. When a country’s currency is strong, it is not an especially good time for foreign tourists to visit.
::对于美国海外旅游者来说,对于美国海外旅游者来说,如果美国在必要时将美元换成外币,那么美国美元就是一种好处。对于美国海外旅游者来说,更坚挺的美元是一种好处。对于每个美元来说,游客得到的外币更多,因此美元更低。当一个国家的货币坚挺时,美国公民就有一个好时机到国外旅游。想象一下美国旅游者储蓄了5 000美元的去南非旅行。2008年1月,1美元购买了7南非兰特,因此游客有35 000兰特可花。2009年1月,1美元购买了10兰特,游客花5万兰特。到2010年1月,1美元只买了7.5兰特。显然,2009年是美国游客访问南非的一年。对于外国游客来说,情况正好相反。相对强劲的美元意味着他们自己的货币相对疲软,因此他们从自己的货币兑换美元到美元,他们的美元比以前少了35 000兰特。如果一个国家的货币坚挺,那么他们访问外国的时间就特别不好。A stronger dollar injures the prospects of a U.S. financial investor who has already invested money in another country. A U.S. financial investor abroad must first convert U.S. dollars to a foreign currency, invest in a foreign country, and then later convert that foreign currency back to U.S. dollars. If in the meantime the U.S. dollar becomes stronger and the foreign currency becomes weaker, then when the investor converts back to U.S. dollars, the rate of return on that investment will be less than originally expected at the time it was made.
::美元坚挺损害了一个已经在另一个国家投资资金的美国金融投资者的前景。 美国海外金融投资者必须首先将美元转换为外币,然后在外国投资,然后将外币转换为美元。 如果与此同时美元变强,外币变弱,那么当投资者将美元转换为美元时,投资的回报率将低于最初预期。However, a stronger U.S. dollar boosts the returns of a foreign investor putting money into a U.S. investment. That foreign investor converts from the home currency to U.S. dollars and seeks a U.S. investment, while later planning to switch back to the home currency. If, in the meantime, the dollar grows stronger, then when the time comes to convert from U.S. dollars back to the foreign currency, the investor will receive more foreign currency than expected at the time the original investment was made.
::然而,一个更强大的美国美元能提振外国投资者将资金投向美国投资的回报。 外国投资者将本国货币转换成美国货币,并寻求美国投资,同时计划随后转换回美国货币。 如果与此同时美元增长强劲,那么当从美国美元兑换回外国货币的时候,投资者将得到的外汇将超过最初投资时的预期。The preceding paragraphs all focus on the case where the U.S. dollar becomes stronger. The corresponding happy or unhappy economic reactions are illustrated in the first column of 6. The following paragraph centers the analysis on the opposite: a weaker dollar.
::以上各段都侧重于美元变强的情况,相应的幸福或不幸福经济反应在6第1栏中说明,以下各段则将分析集中在相反的方面:美元贬值。-
Effects of a Weaker Dollar
::美元贬值的影响Let’s work through the effects of a weaker dollar on a U.S. exporter, a foreign exporter into the United States, a U.S. tourist going abroad, a foreign tourist coming to the United States, a U.S. investor abroad, and a foreign investor in the United States.
::让我们努力克服美元贬值对美国出口商、外国进入美国的出口商、前往国外的美国游客、前来美国的外国游客、美国海外投资者以及在美国的外国投资者的影响。Step 1. Note that the demand for U.S. exports is a function of the price of those exports, which depends on the dollar price of those goods and the exchange rate of the dollar in terms of foreign currency. For example, a Ford pickup truck costs $25,000 in the United States. When it is sold in the United Kingdom, the price is $25,000 / $1.50 per British pound, or £16,667. The dollar affects the price faced by foreigners who may purchase U.S. exports.
::步骤1. 请注意,对美国出口的需求取决于这些出口的价格,这取决于这些货物的美元价格和美元外币汇率,例如,福特小卡车在美国花费25 000美元,在联合王国出售时,价格为每英镑25 000美元/1.50美元,或16 667英镑,美元影响可能购买美国出口品的外国人面临的价格。Step 2. Consider that, if the dollar weakens, the pound rises in value. If the pound rises to $2.00 per pound, then the price of a Ford pickup is now $25,000 / $2.00 = £12,500. A weaker dollar means the foreign currency buys more dollars, which means that U.S. exports appear less expensive.
::步骤2. 考虑一下,如果美元贬值,英镑的价值就会上升。如果英镑上涨到每磅2.00美元,那么福特皮卡的价格现在为25 000美元/2.00美元=12 500英镑。 美元贬值意味着外币购买更多美元,这意味着美国的出口看起来更便宜。Step 3. Summarize that a weaker U.S. dollar leads to an increase in U.S. exports. For a foreign exporter, the outcome is just the opposite.
::步骤3. 总结说,美元贬值会导致美国出口增加,对外国出口商来说,结果正好相反。Step 4 . Suppose a brewery in England is interested in selling its Bass Ale to a grocery store in the United States. If the price of a six pack of Bass Ale is £6.00 and the exchange rate is $1.50 per British pound, the price for the grocery store is 6.00 × $1.50 = $9.00 per six-pack. If the dollar weakens to $2.00 per pound, the price of Bass Ale is now 6.00 × $2.00 = $12.
::第四步,假设英格兰一家酿酒厂有兴趣将其Bass Ale出售给美国一家杂货店,如果六包Bass Ale的价格为6.00英镑,汇率为每英镑1.50美元,杂货店的价格为6.00美元×1.50美元=每六包9.00美元,如果美元贬值为每磅2.00美元,Bass Ale的价格现为6.00美元×2.00美元=12美元。Step 5. Summarize that, from the perspective of U.S. purchasers, a weaker dollar means that foreign currency is more expensive, which means that foreign goods are more expensive also. This leads to a decrease in U.S. imports, which is bad for the foreign exporter.
::步骤5. 总结一下,从美国购买者的角度来看,美元贬值意味着外币更贵,这意味着外国货物也更贵,导致美国进口减少,这对外国出口商不利。Step 6. Consider U.S. tourists going abroad. They face the same situation as a U.S. importer—they are purchasing a foreign trip. A weaker dollar means that their trip will cost more, since a given expenditure of foreign currency (e.g., hotel bill) will take more dollars. The result is that the tourist may not stay as long abroad, and some may choose not to travel at all.
::步骤6. 考虑美国游客出国的情况,他们面临与美国进口商相同的情况,他们正在购买外国旅行,美元贬值意味着他们的旅行费用会更高,因为一定的外币支出(如旅馆帐单)需要更多美元,其结果是游客可能不会在国外逗留那么久,有些人可能选择根本不去旅行。Step 7. Consider that, for the foreign tourist to the United States, a weaker dollar is a boon. It means their currency goes further, so the cost of a trip to the United States will be less. Foreigners may choose to take longer trips to the United States, and more foreign tourists may decide to take U.S. trips.
::步骤7. 考虑一下,对于前往美国的外国游客来说,美元贬值是一种好处,这意味着他们的货币走得更远,因此到美国旅行的费用会更低。 外国人可以选择长途旅行到美国,而更多的外国游客可以决定去美国旅行。Step 8. Note that a U.S. investor abroad faces the same situation as a U.S. importer—they are purchasing a foreign asset. A U.S. investor will see a weaker dollar as an increase in the “price” of investment since the same number of dollars will buy less foreign currency and thus less foreign assets. This should decrease the amount of U.S. investment abroad.
::步骤8. 请注意,美国海外投资者面临与美国进口商相同的情况,他们正在购买外国资产,美国投资者将认为美元贬值是投资 " 价格 " 的上涨,因为同一批美元将减少购买外币,从而减少外国资产,这将减少美国在国外的投资额。Step 9. Note also that foreign investors in the United States will have the opposite experience. Since foreign currency buys more dollars, they will likely invest in more U.S. assets.
::步骤9. 另请注意,在美国的外国投资者会有相反的经验,因为外币购买更多的美元,他们很可能投资于更多的美国资产。At this point, you should have a good sense of the major players in the foreign exchange market: firms involved in international trade, tourists, international financial investors, banks, and foreign exchange dealers. The next module shows how the tools of demand and supply can be used in foreign exchange markets to explain the underlying causes of stronger and weaker currencies.
::目前,你应该对外汇市场上的主要角色有良好的了解:参与国际贸易的公司、旅游者、国际金融投资者、银行和外汇交易商。 下一个模块展示了如何在外汇市场上使用供需工具来解释货币坚挺和疲软的根本原因。
Why is a stronger currency not necessarily better?
::为什么更强的货币不一定更好呢?One common misunderstanding about exchange rates is that a “stronger” or “appreciating” currency must be better than a “weaker” or “depreciating” currency. After all, is it not obvious that “strong” is better than “weak”? But do not let the terminology confuse you. When a currency becomes stronger, so that it purchases more of other currencies, it benefits some in the economy and injures others. A stronger currency is not necessarily better, it is just different.
::关于汇率,一个常见的误解是“强”或“升值”货币必须比“弱”或“贬值”货币好。 毕竟,“强”是否比“弱”好并不明显? 但不要让术语混淆你。 当货币变强,从而购买更多其他货币时,它会给经济中的一些人带来好处,伤害他人。 更强的货币不一定更好,只是不同而已。In the foreign exchange market, people and firms exchange one currency to purchase another currency. The demand for dollars comes from those U.S. export firms seeking to convert their earnings in foreign currency back into U.S. dollars; foreign tourists converting their earnings in a foreign currency back into U.S. dollars; and foreign investors seeking to make financial investments in the U.S. economy. On the supply side of the foreign exchange market for the trading of U.S. dollars are foreign firms that have sold imports in the U.S. economy and are seeking to convert their earnings back to their home currency; U.S. tourists abroad; and U.S. investors seeking to make financial investments in foreign economies. When currency A can buy more of currency B, then currency A has strengthened or appreciated relative to B. When currency A can buy less of currency B, then currency A has weakened or depreciated relative to B. If currency A strengthens or appreciates relative to currency B, then currency B must necessarily weaken or depreciate with regard to currency A. A stronger currency benefits those who are buying with that currency and injures those who are selling. A weaker currency injures those, like importers, who are buying with that currency and benefits those who are selling with it, like exporters.
::在外汇市场上,人民和公司用一种货币兑换另一货币。美元需求来自那些试图将外汇收入兑换回美元、外国游客将其外汇收入兑换回美元、外国游客将其外汇收入兑换回美元、外国投资者寻求在美国经济中进行金融投资。在外汇市场上,人民和公司用一种货币兑换另一货币购买另一货币。对美元的需求来自那些试图将外汇收入兑换回美元、寻求将外汇收入兑换回美元的美国出口公司;外国游客和寻求在外经济中进行金融投资的美国投资者;外国游客将外汇收入兑换回美元;外国游客和公司,将美元需求来自那些试图将其外汇收入兑换回另一货币的美国出口公司;外国银行;外国游客将外汇收入兑换回美元;外国游客把外汇收入兑换回美元;外国游客把外汇收入兑换回美元;外国游客把外汇收入兑换回美元兑换回美元;外国投资者将外汇收入兑换回美元需求来自那些试图将其外汇收入收入兑换回美元;外国公司。外国银行、美国出口公司、美国出口公司、美国出口公司、美国投资者、美国投资者、美国投资者、寻求在外国进行金融投资投资。当A货币可以购买更多B购买更多B货币时,A类货币时,A类投资者就加强了或升值与B比B。当A货币的比B购买更多货币的比B等货币的比B购买者会强或升值的比B等货币的比B购买者会。当A的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行、那些购买者会损害那些出售的银行的银行的货币利益,就会的银行的银行的银行、像、银行的银行的银行等等的货币福利会损害利的银行的银行,会损害利的银行的银行的银行,会等等等的银行的银行的银行将损害利的银行的银行的银行的银行等等等的银行的银行损害利的银行损害利的银行损害利的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行、银行的银行的银行的银行的银行主等等等等等等等的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行、银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行的银行,损害主、银行主、银行的银行的银行主、银行的银行Demand and Supply Shifts in Foreign Exchange Markets
::外汇市场的需求和供应变化The foreign exchange market involves firms, households, and investors who demand and supply currencies coming together through their banks and the key foreign exchange dealers. 7 (a) offers an example for the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso. The vertical axis shows the exchange rate for U.S. dollars, which in this case is measured in pesos. The horizontal axis shows the quantity of U.S. dollars being traded in the foreign exchange market each day. The demand curve (D) for U.S. dollars intersects with the supply curve (S) of U.S. dollars at the equilibrium point (E), which is an exchange rate of 10 pesos per dollar and a total volume of $8.5 billion.
::7(a) 7(a) 为美元与墨西哥比索之间的汇率提供了一个范例。垂直轴线显示美元汇率,此处用比索衡量。横向轴线显示美元每天在外汇市场上交易的数量。美元的需求曲线(D)与平衡点(E)的美元供应曲线(S)相互交叉,平衡点(E)是每美元10比索的汇率,总价值为85亿美元。- Demand and Supply for the U.S. Dollar and Mexican Peso Exchange Rate
(a) The quantity measured on the horizontal axis is in U.S. dollars, and the exchange rate on the vertical axis is the price of U.S. dollars measured in Mexican pesos. (b) The quantity measured on the horizontal axis is in Mexican pesos, while the price on the vertical axis is the price of pesos measured in U.S. dollars. In both graphs, the equilibrium exchange rate occurs at point E, at the intersection of the demand curve (D) and the supply curve (S).
:7 (b) presents the same demand and supply information from the perspective of the Mexican peso. The vertical axis shows the exchange rate for Mexican pesos, which is measured in U.S. dollars. The horizontal axis shows the quantity of Mexican pesos traded in the foreign exchange market. The demand curve (D) for Mexican pesos intersects with the supply curve (S) of Mexican pesos at the equilibrium point (E), which is an exchange rate of 10 cents in U.S. currency for each Mexican peso and a total volume of 85 billion pesos. Note that the two exchange rates are inverses: 10 pesos per dollar is the same as 10 cents per peso (or $0.10 per peso). In the actual foreign exchange market, almost all of the trading for Mexican pesos is done for U.S. dollars. What factors would cause the demand or supply to shift, thus leading to a change in the equilibrium exchange rate? The answer to this question is discussed in the following section.
::7(b) 从墨西哥比索的角度提供同样的供需信息。垂直轴显示墨西哥比索的汇率,以美元计算。横向轴显示在外汇市场上交易的墨西哥比索数量。墨西哥比索的需求曲线(D)与平衡点(E)的墨西哥比索供应曲线(S)交叉,平衡点(D)是每墨西哥比索10美分的汇率,总汇率为850亿比索。请注意,两种汇率反差:每美元10比索等于每比索10美分(即每比索0.10美元)。在实际外汇市场上,墨西哥比索的几乎所有交易都用美元进行。什么因素会导致需求或供应的转移,从而导致平衡汇率的改变?下一节将讨论这个问题的答案。Expectations about Future Exchange Rates
::对未来汇率的预期One reason to demand a currency on the foreign exchange market is the belief that the value of the currency is about to increase. One reason to supply a currency—that is, sell it on the foreign exchange market—is the expectation that the value of the currency is about to decline. For example, imagine that a leading business newspaper, like the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times , runs an article predicting that the Mexican peso will appreciate in value. The likely effects of such an article are illustrated in 8. Demand for the Mexican peso shifts to the right, from D 0 to D 1 , as investors become eager to purchase pesos. Conversely, the supply of pesos shifts to the left, from S 0 to S 1 , because investors will be less willing to give them up. The result is that the equilibrium exchange rate rises from 10 cents/peso to 12 cents/peso and the equilibrium exchange rate rises from 85 billion to 90 billion pesos as the equilibrium moves from E 0 to E 1 .
::要求外汇市场使用货币的一个理由是认为货币的价值即将增加,提供货币的一个原因是预期货币的价值将下降,例如《华尔街日报》或《金融时报》等主要商业报纸刊登一篇文章,预测墨西哥比索的价值会升值,这篇文章的可能影响表现在8:墨西哥比索的需求从D0转向D1,因为投资者热衷于购买比索。 相反,比索的供应从S0转向S1,因为投资者不太愿意放弃比索,因此,平衡汇率从10美分/比索上升到12美分/比索,平衡汇率从850亿比索上升到900亿比索,因为平衡汇率从E0上升到E1。Exchange Rate Market for Mexican Peso Reacts to Expectations about Future Exchange Rates
::墨西哥对未来汇率的预期反应的墨西哥先期对未来汇率的预期汇率市场An announcement that the peso exchange rate is likely to strengthen in the future will lead to greater demand for the peso in the present from investors who wish to benefit from the appreciation. Similarly, it will make investors less likely to supply pesos to the foreign exchange market. Both the shift of demand to the right and the shift of supply to the left cause an immediate appreciation in the exchange rate.
::宣布比索汇率今后有可能加强,将导致希望从升值中获益的投资者对比索目前的需求量增加,同样,这将使投资者向外汇市场供应比索的可能性降低,需求向右的转移和供应向左的转移都会导致汇率立即升值。8 also illustrates some peculiar traits of supply and demand diagrams in the foreign exchange market. In contrast to all the other cases of supply and demand you have considered, in the foreign exchange market, supply and demand typically both move at the same time. Groups of participants in the foreign exchange market like firms and investors include some who are buyers and some who are sellers. An expectation of a future shift in the exchange rate affects both buyers and sellers—that is, it affects both demand and supply for a currency.
::与你所考虑的所有其他供求情况不同,在外汇市场上,供求通常同时流动。 公司和投资者等外汇市场参与者群体包括一些买主和一些卖主,预期汇率今后会发生变化既影响到买主,也影响到卖主,即既影响到货币的供求。The shifts in demand and supply curves both cause the exchange rate to shift in the same direction; in this example, they both make the peso exchange rate stronger. However, the shifts in demand and supply work in opposing directions on the quantity traded. In this example, the rising demand for pesos is causing the quantity to rise while the falling supply of pesos is causing quantity to fall. In this specific example, the result is a higher quantity. But in other cases, the result could be that quantity remains unchanged or declines.
::供需曲线的变动导致汇率向同一方向转变;就这个例子而言,这两种汇率都使比索汇率更趋强劲;然而,供需工作在交易数量上向相反方向转变;就这个例子而言,对比索需求的上升正在造成数量增加,而比索供应下降则造成数量下降;就这个具体例子而言,结果是数量增加;但在其他例子中,结果可能是数量保持不变或下降。This example also helps to explain why exchange rates often move quite substantially in a short period of a few weeks or months. When investors expect a country’s currency to strengthen in the future, they buy the currency and cause it to appreciate immediately. The appreciation of the currency can lead other investors to believe that future appreciation is likely—and thus lead to even further appreciation. Similarly, a fear that a currency might weaken quickly leads to an actual weakening of the currency, which often reinforces the belief that the currency is going to weaken further. Thus, beliefs about the future path of exchange rates can be self-reinforcing, at least for a time, and a large share of the trading in foreign exchange markets involves dealers trying to outguess each other on what direction exchange rates will move next.
::这个例子也有助于解释为什么汇率在短短几周或几个月的时间里经常发生相当大幅度的波动。 当投资者期望一个国家的货币在未来会有所增强时,他们就会购买货币并立即导致货币升值。 货币升值可能导致其他投资者相信未来升值的可能性 — — 从而导致进一步升值。 同样,担心货币可能迅速贬值导致货币实际疲软,这往往强化了货币将进一步贬值的信念。 因此,对未来汇率道路的信念可能是自我强化,至少可以有一段时间,外汇市场交易的很大一部分涉及交易商试图在汇率下一步的方向上相互指责对方。Differences across Countries in Rates of Return
::各国之间在收益率方面的差异The motivation for investment, whether domestic or foreign, is to earn a return. If rates of return in a country look relatively high, then that country will tend to attract funds from abroad. Conversely, if rates of return in a country look relatively low, then funds will tend to flee to other economies. Changes in the expected rate of return will shift demand and supply for a currency. For example, imagine that interest rates rise in the United States as compared with Mexico. Thus, financial investments in the United States promise a higher return than they previously did. As a result, more investors will demand U.S. dollars so that they can buy interest-bearing assets and fewer investors will be willing to supply U.S. dollars to foreign exchange markets. Demand for the U.S. dollar will shift to the right, from D 0 to D 1 , and supply will shift to the left, from S 0 to S 1 , as shown in 9. The new equilibrium (E 1 ), will occur at an exchange rate of nine pesos/dollar and the same quantity of $8.5 billion. In this way, a higher interest rate or rate of return relative to other countries leads a nation’s currency to appreciate or strengthen, and a lower interest rate relative to other countries leads a nation’s currency to depreciate or weaken. Since a nation’s central bank can use monetary policy to affect its interest rates, a central bank can also cause changes in exchange rates—a connection that will be discussed in more detail later in this chapter.
::投资的动机,不管是国内还是国外,都是为了获得回报。 如果一个国家的回报率看起来相对较高,那么该国就会倾向于从国外吸引资金。 相反,如果一个国家的回报率相对较低,那么资金就会流向其他经济体。 预计的回报率变化将改变货币的供需。 比如,想象美国利率与墨西哥相比将上升。 因此,美国的金融投资将带来比以往更高的回报率。 因此,更多的投资者会要求美元,以便他们可以购买有利息的资产,而更少的投资者会愿意向外汇市场提供美元。 相反,如果一个国家的回报率相对较低,那么资金就会流向其他经济体。 美元的需求将转向右翼,从D0到D1,而供应将转向左翼,从S0到S1,如9所示。 新的平衡(E1)将以9比索/美元和同样数量的汇率(85亿美元)出现。 因此,比其他国家更高的利率或回报率会导致一国货币升值或贬值,而中央银行的利率则会降低。Exchange Rate Market for U.S. Dollars Reacts to Higher Interest Rates
::美元对高利率反应的汇率市场A higher rate of return for U.S. dollars makes holding dollars more attractive. Thus, the demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market shifts to the right, from D 0 to D 1 , while the supply of dollars shifts to the left, from S 0 to S 1 . The new equilibrium (E 1 ) has a stronger exchange rate than the original equilibrium (E 0 ), but in this example, the equilibrium quantity traded does not change.
::美元回报率的提高使得持有美元更具吸引力。 因此,外汇市场对美元的需求从D0转向D1,而美元供应从S0转向S1,新平衡(E1)的汇率比原平衡(E0)更强,但在此例子中,交易的平衡数量没有变化。Relative Inflation
::相对通货膨胀率If a country experiences a relatively high inflation rate compared with other economies, then the buying power of its currency is eroding, which will tend to discourage anyone from wanting to acquire or to hold the currency. 10 shows an example based on an actual episode concerning the Mexican peso. In 1986–87, Mexico experienced an inflation rate of over 200%. Not surprisingly, as inflation dramatically decreased the purchasing power of the peso in Mexico, the exchange rate value of the peso declined as well. As shown in 10, demand for the peso on foreign exchange markets decreased from D 0 to D 1 , while supply of the peso increased from S 0 to S 1 . The equilibrium exchange rate fell from $2.50 per peso at the original equilibrium (E 0 ) to $0.50 per peso at the new equilibrium (E 1 ). In this example, the quantity of pesos traded on foreign exchange markets remained the same, even as the exchange rate shifted.
::如果一个国家与其他经济体相比出现相对较高的通货膨胀率,那么其货币的购买力就会下降,这往往使任何人不愿意获得或持有该货币。 10个例子以墨西哥比索的实际情况为依据。 1986-87年,墨西哥的通货膨胀率超过200 % 。 毫不奇怪,因为墨西哥比索的购买力急剧下降,比索的汇率价值也下降了。 如10个所示,对外汇市场比索的需求从D0下降到D1,而比索的供应从S0增加到S1。 平衡汇率从原平衡的每比索2.50美元下降到新平衡的每比索0.50美元。 在本案中,外汇市场上的比索交易量保持不变,即使汇率发生变化。Exchange Rate Markets React to Higher Inflation
::汇率市场对高通货膨胀的反应If a currency is experiencing relatively high inflation, then its buying power is decreasing and international investors will be less eager to hold it. Thus, a rise in inflation in the Mexican peso would lead demand to shift from D 0 to D 1 , and supply to increase from S 0 to S 1 . Both movements in demand and supply would cause the currency to depreciate. The effect on the quantity traded is drawn here as a decrease, but in truth it could be an increase or no change, depending on the actual movements of demand and supply.
::如果一种货币正在经历相对较高的通货膨胀,那么其购买力正在下降,国际投资者将不再急于持有它。 因此,墨西哥比索的通胀上升将导致需求从D0转向D1,供应从S0增长到S1。 供需两方面的波动都会导致货币贬值。 对交易数量的影响在这里被作为下降,但事实上,它可能是增长或没有变化,取决于需求和供应的实际流动。Purchasing Power Parity
::购买力平价Over the long term, exchange rates must bear some relationship to the buying power of the currency in terms of goods that are internationally traded. If at a certain exchange rate it was much cheaper to buy internationally traded goods—such as oil, steel, computers, and cars—in one country than in another country, businesses would start buying in the cheap country, selling in other countries, and pocketing the profits.
::从长远看,汇率必须与货币在国际贸易货物方面的购买力有某种关系。 如果以某种汇率计算,在一个国家购买国际交易货物 — — 如石油、钢铁、计算机和汽车 — — 比在另一个国家便宜得多,那么企业就会开始在廉价国家购买,在其他国家销售,并控制利润。For example, if a U.S. dollar is worth $1.60 in Canadian currency, then a car that sells for $20,000 in the United States should sell for $32,000 in Canada. If the price of cars in Canada was much lower than $32,000, then at least some U.S. car-buyers would convert their U.S. dollars to Canadian dollars and buy their cars in Canada. If the price of cars was much higher than $32,000 in this example, then at least some Canadian buyers would convert their Canadian dollars to U.S. dollars and go to the United States to purchase their cars. This is known as arbitrage, the process of buying and selling goods or currencies across international borders at a profit. It may occur slowly, but over time, it will force prices and exchange rates to align so that the price of internationally traded goods is similar in all countries.
::例如,如果美元以加拿大货币计值为160美元,那么在美国出售20 000美元的汽车应该在加拿大出售32 000美元。 如果加拿大汽车价格远远低于32 000美元,那么至少一些美国汽车买家会将其美元兑换成加拿大元,在加拿大购买汽车。如果汽车价格比加拿大美元高得多的话,那么至少一些加拿大买家会将其加拿大元兑换成美元,然后到美国购买汽车。 这被称为套利交易,即买卖货物或货币以赢利方式跨越国际边界的过程。 它可能缓慢发生,但随着时间的推移,它会迫使价格和汇率保持一致,以使所有国家的国际贸易商品价格都相似。The exchange rate that equalizes the prices of internationally traded goods across countries is called the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate. A group of economists at the International Comparison Program, run by the World Bank, have calculated the PPP exchange rate for all countries, based on detailed studies of the prices and quantities of internationally tradable goods.
::平衡各国国际贸易商品价格的汇率被称为购买力平价(PPP)汇率。 世界银行经管的国际比较方案的一组经济学家根据对国际可交易商品的价格和数量的详细研究计算了所有国家的PPP汇率。The purchasing power parity exchange rate has two functions. First, PPP exchange rates are often used for international comparison of GDP and other economic statistics. Imagine that you are preparing a table showing the size of GDP in many countries in several recent years, and for ease of comparison, you are converting all the values into U.S. dollars. When you insert the value for Japan, you need to use a yen/dollar exchange rate. But should you use the market exchange rate or the PPP exchange rate? Market exchange rates bounce around. In summer 2008, the exchange rate was 108 yen/dollar, but in late 2009 the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus the yen was 90 yen/dollar. For simplicity, say that Japan’s GDP was ¥500 trillion in both 2008 and 2009. If you use the market exchange rates, then Japan’s GDP will be $4.6 trillion in 2008 (that is, ¥500 trillion /(¥108/dollar)) and $5.5 trillion in 2009 (that is, ¥500 trillion /(¥90/dollar)).
::购买力平价汇率有两个功能。 首先,购买力平价汇率经常用于GDP和其他经济统计数据的国际比较。 想象一下,你正在准备一张表格,显示近年来许多国家GDP规模,为了便于比较,你正在将所有数值转换成美元。当你插入日本的数值时,你需要使用日元/美元汇率。 但如果你使用市场汇率或购买力平价汇率?市场汇率反弹。 2008年夏天,汇率为108日元/美元,但2009年底,美元对日元的汇率为90日元/美元。 简洁地说,2008年和2009年,日本的GDP均为500万亿日元。 如果你使用市场汇率,那么2008年日本的GDP将达到4.6万亿美元(即500万亿日元/(108美元/美元)),2009年的GDP为5.5万亿美元(即500万亿日元/(2990美元))。Of course, it is not true that Japan’s economy increased enormously in 2009—in fact, Japan had a recession like much of the rest of the world. The misleading appearance of a booming Japanese economy occurs only because we used the market exchange rate, which often has short-run rises and falls. However, PPP exchange rates stay fairly constant and change only modestly, if at all, from year to year.
::当然,2009年日本经济大幅增长并不真实 — — 事实上,日本与世界大部分地区一样经历了衰退。 日本经济繁荣的误导性表现只是因为我们使用了市场汇率 — — 经常是短期上涨和下跌 — — 才会出现。 然而,购买力平价汇率保持了相当的不变,并且一年到一年的改变都很小,如果有的话。The second function of PPP is that exchanges rates will often get closer and closer to it as time passes. It is true that in the short run and medium run, as exchange rates adjust to relative inflation rates, rates of return, and to expectations about how interest rates and inflation will shift, the exchange rates will often move away from the PPP exchange rate for a time. But, knowing the PPP will allow you to track and predict exchange rate relationships.
::购买力平价的第二个功能是随着时间的流逝,汇率往往会越来越接近。 诚然,在中短期,随着汇率适应相对通货膨胀率、回报率和对利率和通货膨胀如何变化的预期,汇率会从购买力平价的汇率中转移一段时间。 但是,知道购买力平价将允许你跟踪和预测汇率关系。In the extreme short run, ranging from a few minutes to a few weeks, exchange rates are influenced by speculators who are trying to invest in currencies that will grow stronger, and to sell currencies that will grow weaker. Such speculation can create a self-fulfilling prophecy, at least for a time, where an expected appreciation leads to a stronger currency and vice versa. In the relatively short run, exchange rate markets are influenced by differences in rates of return. Countries with relatively high real rates of return (for example, high interest rates) will tend to experience stronger currencies as they attract money from abroad, while countries with relatively low rates of return will tend to experience weaker exchange rates as investors convert to other currencies.
::在极短的短时间里,从几分钟到几个星期,汇率受到投机者的影响,他们试图投资于增长较强的货币,并出售增长较弱的货币。 这种投机行为可以创造自我实现的预言,至少在一段时间内,预期升值会导致货币升值,反之亦然。 在相对较短的时间内,汇率市场受收益率差异的影响。 实际收益率相对较高的国家(例如高利率)在吸引国外货币时往往会经历较强的货币,而回报率相对较低的国家则会经历较弱的汇率,因为投资者会转换其他货币。In the medium run of a few months or a few years, exchange rate markets are influenced by inflation rates. Countries with relatively high inflation will tend to experience less demand for their currency than countries with lower inflation, and thus currency depreciation. Over long periods of many years, exchange rates tend to adjust toward the purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, which is the exchange rate such that the prices of internationally tradable goods in different countries, when converted at the PPP exchange rate to a common currency, are similar in all economies.
::在几个月或几年的中期内,汇率市场受通胀率的影响,相对高通胀的国家对本国货币的需求往往低于通胀率较低的国家,从而导致货币贬值。 多年来,汇率倾向于向购买力平价(PPP)汇率(PPP)调整,也就是说,不同国家的国际可交易货物价格在按购买力平价汇率转换为共同货币时,在所有经济体中都相似。Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rates
::汇率的宏观经济影响A central bank will be concerned about the exchange rate for multiple reasons: (1) Movements in the exchange rate will affect the quantity of aggregate demand in an economy; (2) frequent substantial fluctuations in the exchange rate can disrupt international trade and cause problems in a nation’s banking system–this may contribute to an unsustainable balance of trade and large inflows of international financial capital, which can set the economy up for a deep recession if international investors decide to move their money to another country. Let’s discuss these scenarios in turn.
::央行会出于多种原因关注汇率Exchange Rates, Aggregate Demand, and Aggregate Supply
::汇率、总需求和总供应量Foreign trade in goods and services typically involves incurring the costs of production in one currency while receiving revenues from sales in another currency. As a result, movements in exchange rates can have a powerful effect on incentives to export and import, and thus on aggregate demand in the economy as a whole.
::商品和服务的对外贸易通常涉及一种货币的生产成本,同时从另一种货币的销售中获得收入,因此,汇率的变动会对鼓励进出口,从而对整个经济的总需求产生巨大影响。For example, in 1999, when the euro first became a currency, its value measured in U.S. currency was $1.06/euro. By the end of 2013, the euro had risen (and the U.S. dollar had correspondingly weakened) to $1.37/euro. Consider the situation of a French firm that each year incurs €10 million in costs, and sells its products in the United States for $10 million. In 1999, when this firm converted $10 million back to euros at the exchange rate of $1.06/euro (that is, $10 million × [€1/$1.06]), it received €9.4 million, and suffered a loss. In 2013, when this same firm converted $10 million back to euros at the exchange rate of $1.37/euro (that is, $10 million × [€1 euro/$1.37]), it received approximately €7.3 million and an even larger loss. This example shows how a stronger euro discourages exports by the French firm, because it makes the costs of production in the domestic currency higher relative to the sales revenues earned in another country. From the point of view of the U.S. economy, the example also shows how a weaker U.S. dollar encourages exports.
::例如,1999年,当欧元首次成为货币时,以美元计值为1.06欧元,到2013年底,欧元已经上升到1.37欧元(美国美元相应被削弱),达到1.37欧元。想想法国公司每年产生1 000万欧元成本,并在美国销售其产品1 000万美元。1999年,当该公司以1.06欧元(即1 000万美元×[1/1.06欧元]的汇率将1 000万美元回折成欧元时,它收到了940万欧元,并遭受了损失。2013年,当同一家公司以1.37欧元(即1 000万美元×[1欧元/137欧元]的汇率将1 000万美元回兑换成欧元时,它得到了大约730万欧元甚至更大的损失。这个例子表明,一个更强大的欧元如何抑制法国公司的出口,因为它使国内货币的生产成本高于另一个国家的销售收入。从美国经济角度看,这个例子也表明,美元的出口如何疲软。Since an increase in exports results in more dollars flowing into the economy, and an increase in imports means more dollars are flowing out, it is easy to conclude that exports are “good” for the economy and imports are “bad,” but this overlooks the role of exchange rates. If an American consumer buys a Japanese car for $20,000 instead of an American car for $30,000, it may be tempting to argue that the American economy has lost out. However, the Japanese company will have to convert those dollars to yen to pay its workers and operate its factories. Whoever buys those dollars will have to use them to purchase American goods and services, so the money comes right back into the American economy. At the same time, the consumer saves money by buying a less expensive import, and can use the extra money for other purposes.
::由于出口增长导致更多的美元流入经济,而进口增长意味着更多的美元流出,因此很容易得出结论,出口对经济来说是“好的 ” , 进口“坏 ” , 但这忽略了汇率的作用。 如果美国消费者购买日本汽车的价格是20,000美元,而购买美国汽车的价格是30,000美元,那么说美国经济已经输掉了可能很诱人。 但是,日本公司不得不将这些美元兑换成日元来支付工人的薪水并经营工厂。 无论谁购买这些美元,都必须用这些钱购买美国商品和服务,因此这些钱就会直接回到美国经济。 与此同时,消费者通过购买更便宜的进口品来节省钱,并且可以将额外钱用于其他目的。Fluctuations in Exchange Rates
::汇率波动Exchange rates can fluctuate a great deal in the short run. As yet one more example, the Indian rupee moved from 39 rupees/dollar in February 2008 to 51 rupees/dollar in March 2009, a decline of more than one-fourth in the value of the rupee on foreign exchange markets. earlier showed that even two economically developed neighboring economies like the United States and Canada can see significant movements in exchange rates over a few years. For firms that depend on export sales, or firms that rely on imported inputs to production, or even purely domestic firms that compete with firms tied into international trade—which in many countries adds up to half or more of a nation’s GDP—sharp movements in exchange rates can lead to dramatic changes in profits and losses. So, a central bank may desire to keep exchange rates from moving too much as part of providing a stable business climate, where firms can focus on productivity and innovation, not on reacting to exchange rate fluctuations.
::汇率在短期内会大幅波动。 还有一个例子是,印度卢比从2008年2月的39卢比/美元升至2009年3月的51卢比/美元,外汇市场上的卢比价值下降了四分之一以上。 早些时候显示,即使是美国和加拿大等两个经济发达的邻国经济体也可以看到几年来汇率的大幅波动。 对于依赖出口销售的公司,或者依赖生产投入进口的公司,或者甚至纯粹国内公司与国际贸易中的公司竞争 — — 许多国家的GDP加起来高达一半或更多 — — 汇率的快速波动可能导致利润和损失的急剧变化。 因此,中央银行可能希望将汇率的波动作为提供稳定商业环境的一部分 — — 企业可以专注于生产力和创新,而不是对汇率波动作出反应。One of the most economically destructive effects of exchange rate fluctuations can happen through the banking system. Most international loans are measured in a few large currencies, like U.S. dollars, European euros, and Japanese yen. In countries that do not use these currencies, banks often borrow funds in the currencies of other countries, like U.S. dollars, but then lend in their own domestic currency. The left-hand chain of events in 11 shows how this pattern of international borrowing can work. A bank in Thailand borrows one million in U.S. dollars. Then the bank converts the dollars to its domestic currency—in the case of Thailand, the currency is the baht—at a rate of 40 baht/dollar. The bank then lends the baht to a firm in Thailand. The business repays the loan in baht, and the bank converts it back to U.S. dollars to pay off its original U.S. dollar loan.
::汇率波动在经济上最具破坏性的影响之一可能通过银行系统发生。大多数国际贷款都是用几大货币计量的,如美元、欧元和日元。在不使用这些货币的国家,银行往往以其他国家货币借钱,如美元,然后以本国货币借钱。11个事件左手链显示了这种国际借款模式如何运作。泰国的一家银行以美元借100万美元。然后,该银行将美元转换为本国货币,泰国的兑换率是铢,按40铢/美元兑换率计算。然后,该银行将铢借给泰国的一家公司。该银行偿还了铢贷款,银行又将其兑换回美元,以偿还原美元贷款。- International Borrowing
The scenario of international borrowing that ends on the left is a success story, but the scenario that ends on the right shows what happens when the exchange rate weakens.
::左边结束的国际借贷情景是一个成功的故事,但右边结束的情景显示了当汇率疲软时发生的情况。This process of borrowing in a foreign currency and lending in a domestic currency can work just fine, as long as the exchange rate does not shift. In the scenario outlined, if the dollar strengthens and the baht weakens, a problem arises. The right-hand chain of events in 11 illustrates what happens when the baht unexpectedly weakens from 40 baht/dollar to 50 baht/dollar. The Thai firm still repays the loan in full to the bank. But because of the shift in the exchange rate, the bank cannot repay its loan in U.S. dollars. (Of course, if the exchange rate had changed in the other direction, making the Thai currency stronger, the bank could have realized an unexpectedly large profit.)
::以外币借贷和以本国货币借贷的过程只要汇率不改变,就能够很好地运作。 在概述的假设中,如果美元升值和铢贬值,就会出现问题。 11个事件中的右手链说明了当铢意外从40铢/美元下降到50铢/美元时会发生什么情况。 泰国公司仍然将贷款全额偿还银行。 但是,由于汇率的变动,该银行无法用美元偿还贷款。 (当然,如果汇率朝另一方向变化,使泰国货币更加坚挺,该银行本可以实现意想不到的巨额利润。 )In 1997–1998, countries across eastern Asia, like Thailand, Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia, experienced a sharp depreciation of their currencies, in some cases 50% or more. These countries had been experiencing substantial inflows of foreign investment capital, with bank lending increasing by 20% to 30% per year through the mid-1990s. When their exchange rates depreciated, the banking systems in these countries were bankrupt. Argentina experienced a similar chain of events in 2002. When the Argentine peso depreciated, Argentina’s banks found themselves unable to pay back what they had borrowed in U.S. dollars.
::1997-1998年,东亚各国,如泰国、韩国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚,货币急剧贬值,有时甚至贬值50 % 。 这些国家经历了大量外国投资资本的流入,银行贷款每年增长20 % 至30 % 。 当它们的汇率贬值时,这些国家的银行系统破产了。 2002年阿根廷比索贬值时,阿根廷银行发现自己无力偿还以美元借来的贷款。Banks play a vital role in any economy in facilitating transactions and in making loans to firms and consumers. When most of a country’s largest banks become bankrupt simultaneously, a sharp decline in aggregate demand and a deep recession results. Since the main responsibilities of a central bank are to control the money supply and to ensure that the banking system is stable, a central bank must be concerned about whether large and unexpected exchange rate depreciation will drive most of the country’s existing banks into bankruptcy.
::在任何经济中,银行在便利交易和向企业及消费者提供贷款方面都发挥着关键作用。 当一国大多数最大银行同时破产时,总需求急剧下降和严重衰退的结果。 由于央行的主要责任是控制货币供应和确保银行系统稳定,央行必须担心大规模和意外的汇率贬值是否会迫使该国现有银行的多数破产。Summing Up Public Policy and Exchange Rates
::总结公共政策和汇率Every nation would prefer a stable exchange rate to facilitate international trade and reduce the degree of risk and uncertainty in the economy. However, a nation may sometimes want a weaker exchange rate to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce a recession, or a stronger exchange rate to fight inflation. The country must also be concerned that rapid movements from a weak to a strong exchange rate may cripple its export industries, while rapid movements from a strong to a weak exchange rate can cripple its banking sector. In short, every choice of an exchange rate—whether it should be stronger or weaker, or fixed or changing—represents potential tradeoffs.
::每一个国家都希望有一个稳定的汇率来便利国际贸易,减少经济的风险和不确定性,然而,一个国家有时可能想要一个较弱的汇率来刺激总的需求和减少衰退,或更强大的汇率来对抗通货膨胀,该国还必须担心,从弱国向强国的汇率的迅速波动可能使其出口工业瘫痪,而从强国向弱国的汇率的迅速波动则可能使其银行部门瘫痪,简言之,汇率的每一种选择——无论是强国还是弱国,还是固定的还是变化的——都可能带来可能的权衡。A central bank will be concerned about the exchange rate for several reasons. Exchange rates will affect imports and exports, and thus affect aggregate demand in the economy. Fluctuations in exchange rates may cause difficulties for many firms, but especially banks. The exchange rate may accompany unsustainable flows of international financial capital.
::央行会出于若干原因担心汇率。 汇率会影响进出口,从而影响经济总需求。 汇率波动可能会给许多公司,特别是银行造成困难。 汇率可能会伴随不可持续的国际金融资本流动。Exchange Rate Policies
::汇率政策Exchange rate policies come in a range of different forms listed in 12: let the foreign exchange market determines the exchange rate; let the market set the value of the exchange rate most of the time, but have the central bank sometimes intervene to prevent fluctuations that seem too large; have the central bank guarantee a specific exchange rate; or share a currency with other countries. Let’s discuss each type of exchange rate policy and its tradeoffs.
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A Spectrum of Exchange Rate Policies
A nation may adopt one of a variety of exchange rate regimes, from floating rates in which the foreign exchange market determines the rates to pegged rates where governments intervene to manage the value of the exchange rate, to a common currency where the nation adopts the currency of another country or group of countries.
::一国可采用多种汇率制度之一,从浮动汇率,即外汇市场确定汇率,到政府干预以管理汇率价值的挂钩汇率,到一国采用另一国或国家集团货币的共同货币。Floating Exchange Rates
::汇率波动A policy which allows the foreign exchange market to set exchange rates is referred to as a floating exchange rate. The U.S. dollar is a floating exchange rate, as are the currencies of about 40% of the countries in the world economy. The major concern with this policy is that exchange rates can move a great deal in a short time.
::允许外汇市场设定汇率的政策被称为浮动汇率。 美元是一种浮动汇率,世界经济中大约40%的国家的货币也是如此。 这一政策的主要关切是汇率在短期内可以大幅移动。Consider the U.S. exchange rate expressed in terms of another fairly stable currency, the Japanese yen, as shown in 13. On January 1, 2002, the exchange rate was 133 yen/dollar. On January 1, 2005, it was 103 yen/dollar. On June 1, 2007, it was 122 yen/dollar, and on January 1, 2009, it was 90 yen/dollar. As investor sentiment swings back and forth, driving exchange rates up and down, exporters, importers, and banks involved in international lending are all affected. At worst, large movements in exchange rates can drive companies into bankruptcy or trigger a nationwide banking collapse. But even in the moderate case of the yen/dollar exchange rate, these movements of roughly 30 percent back and forth impose stress on both economies as firms must alter their export and import plans to take the new exchange rates into account. Especially in smaller countries where international trade is a relatively large share of GDP, exchange rate movements can rattle their economies.
::以另一种相当稳定的货币 — — 如2002年1月1日,日元 — — 的汇率为美国汇率。 2002年1月1日,日元为133日元/美元。 2005年1月1日,日元/美元为103日元/美元。 2007年6月1日,日元/美元为122日元/美元,2009年1月1日,日元/美元为90日元/美元。随着投资者情绪的回旋,导致汇率上下波动,参与国际贷款的出口商、进口商和银行都受到影响。 最糟糕的是,汇率的大幅波动可能迫使公司破产或引发全国银行倒闭。 但即使是中调的日元/美元汇率,这些回回转约30%的汇率也给两个经济体造成压力,因为公司必须改变其进出口计划,以考虑新的汇率。 特别是在国际贸易占GDP比例相对较大的小国家,汇率的变动会扰乱它们的经济。U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate in Japanese Yen
::日元美元汇率Even relatively stable exchange rates can vary a fair amount. The exchange rate for the U.S. dollar, measured in Japanese yen, fell about 30% from the start of 2002 to the start of 2005, rose back by mid-2007, and then dropped again by early 2009. (Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXJPUS)
::即使相对稳定的汇率也可以改变一个公平的数额。 以日元计的美元汇率从2002年初到2005年初下降了约30%,2007年年中回升,2009年初又再次下降。 (资料来源:http://research.stloisfed.org/fred2/series/EXJPUS)However, movements of floating exchange rates have advantages, too. After all, prices of goods and services rise and fall throughout a market economy, as demand and supply shift. If an economy experiences strong inflows or outflows of international financial capital, or has relatively high inflation, or if it experiences strong productivity growth so that purchasing power changes relative to other economies, then it makes economic sense for the exchange rate to shift as well.
::但是,浮动汇率的变动也有优势。 毕竟,随着需求和供应的转移,商品和服务价格在整个市场经济中不断上涨和下跌。 如果一个经济体经历了国际金融资本的强劲流入或流出,或者通货膨胀率相对较高,或者如果它经历了生产力的强劲增长,从而与其他经济体相比购买力的变化,那么汇率也发生转变,这在经济上是有道理的。Floating exchange rate advocates often argue that if government policies were more predictable and stable, then inflation rates and interest rates would be more predictable and stable. Exchange rates would bounce around less, too. The great economist Milton Friedman (1912–2006), for example, wrote a defense of floating exchange rates in 1962 in his book Capitalism and Freedom :
::汇率浮动的鼓吹者往往认为,如果政府政策更可预测和稳定,那么通胀率和利率就会更可预测和稳定。 汇率也会反弹更少。 比如,伟大的经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman,1912-2006年)在1962年写了一篇《资本主义与自由 》 ( Capitalism and Freedom ) , 为浮动汇率辩护:Being in favor of floating exchange rates does not mean being in favor of unstable exchange rates. When we support a free price system [for goods and services] at home, this does not imply that we favor a system in which prices fluctuate wildly up and down. What we want is a system in which prices are free to fluctuate but in which the forces determining them are sufficiently stable so that in fact prices move within moderate ranges. This is equally true in a system of floating exchange rates. The ultimate objective is a world in which exchange rates, while free to vary, are, in fact, highly stable because basic economic policies and conditions are stable.
::支持浮动汇率并不意味着赞成不稳定的汇率。 当我们在国内支持自由价格体系时,这并不意味着我们赞成价格急剧上下波动的体系。 我们想要的是一个价格自由波动但确定价格的力量足够稳定的体系,以便事实上价格在中等幅度内流动。 在浮动汇率体系中,这也同样如此。 最终目标是一个汇率自由变化,但事实上却由于基本经济政策和条件稳定而高度稳定的世界。Advocates of floating exchange rates admit that, yes, exchange rates may sometimes fluctuate. They point out, however, that if a central bank focuses on preventing either high inflation or deep recession, with low and reasonably steady interest rates, then exchange rates will have less reason to vary.
::浮动汇率的倡导者承认,是的,汇率有时会波动。 但是,他们指出,如果央行专注于防止高通胀或深度衰退,防止利率低且相当稳定的低利率,那么汇率就没有什么理由变化。Using Soft Pegs and Hard Pegs
::使用软佩格和硬佩格When a government intervenes in the foreign exchange market so that the exchange rate of its currency is different from what the market would have produced, it is said to have established a “peg” for its currency. A soft peg is the name for an exchange rate policy where the government usually allows the exchange rate to be set by the market, but in some cases, especially if the exchange rate seems to be moving rapidly in one direction, the central bank will intervene in the market. With a hard peg exchange rate policy, the central bank sets a fixed and unchanging value for the exchange rate. A central bank can implement soft peg and hard peg policies.
::当一国政府干预外汇市场,使其货币的汇率与市场本来会产生的汇率不同时,据说它为其货币建立了一种“汇率 ” 。 软挂钩是汇率政策的名称,政府通常允许市场设定汇率,但在某些情况下,特别是如果汇率似乎正在向一个方向快速移动,中央银行将干预市场。 采用硬性挂钩汇率政策,央行为汇率设定固定和不变的汇率价值。 央行可以实施软挂钩和硬挂钩政策。Suppose the market exchange rate for the Brazilian currency, the real, would be 35 cents/real with a daily quantity of 15 billion real traded in the market, as shown at the equilibrium E 0 in 14 (a) and 14 (b). However, the government of Brazil decides that the exchange rate should be 30 cents/real, as shown in 14 (a). Perhaps Brazil sets this lower exchange rate to benefit its export industries. Perhaps it is an attempt to stimulate aggregate demand by stimulating exports. Perhaps Brazil believes that the current market exchange rate is higher than the long-term purchasing power parity value of the real, so it is minimizing fluctuations in the real by keeping it at this lower rate. Perhaps the target exchange rate was set sometime in the past, and is now being maintained for the sake of stability. Whatever the reason, if Brazil’s central bank wishes to keep the exchange rate below the market level, it must face the reality that at this weaker exchange rate of 30 cents/real, the quantity demanded of its currency at 17 billion reals is greater than the quantity supplied of 13 billion reals in the foreign exchange market.
::假设巴西货币的实际市场汇率为35美分/实际35美分/实际,市场实际交易量每天为150亿,如14(a)和14(b)的E0平衡所示。 然而,巴西政府决定汇率应为30美分/实际,如14(a)所示。 也许巴西设定这一较低的汇率有利于出口行业。 也许这是通过刺激出口刺激刺激总需求的一个尝试。 也许巴西认为目前的市场汇率高于实际的长期购买力平价值,因此通过保持这一较低的汇率来最大限度地减少实际汇率的波动。 也许目标汇率是在过去某个时候设定的,现在为了稳定而维持。 不管为什么巴西中央银行希望将汇率维持在市场水平以下,它必须面对这样的现实,即以30美分/实际汇率这一较弱的汇率,其货币的需求量在170亿实际值上比在外汇市场上提供的130亿实际值要高。Pegging an Exchange Rate
::汇兑汇率(a) If an exchange rate is pegged below what would otherwise be the equilibrium, then the quantity demanded of the currency will exceed the quantity supplied. (b) If an exchange rate is pegged above what would otherwise be the equilibrium, then the quantity supplied of the currency exceeds the quantity demanded.
:The Brazilian central bank could weaken its exchange rate in two ways. One approach is to use an expansionary monetary policy that leads to lower interest rates. In foreign exchange markets, the lower interest rates will reduce demand and increase supply of the real and lead to depreciation. This technique is not often used because lowering interest rates to weaken the currency may be in conflict with the country’s monetary policy goals. Alternatively, Brazil’s central bank could trade directly in the foreign exchange market. The central bank can expand the money supply by creating reals, use the reals to purchase foreign currencies, and avoid selling any of its own currency. In this way, it can fill the gap between quantity demanded and quantity supplied of its currency.
::巴西央行可能以两种方式削弱汇率。 一种办法是采用扩张性货币政策,导致降低利率。 在外汇市场,低利率将减少实际需求,增加实际供应,导致贬值。 这一方法经常不会被使用,因为降低利率以削弱货币可能与巴西的货币政策目标相冲突。 或者,巴西央行可以直接在外汇市场上交易。 央行可以通过创造实货、使用实货购买外币和避免出售本国货币来扩大货币供应。 这样,它就可以填补所需货币数量与所提供货币数量之间的差距。14 (b) shows the opposite situation. Here, the Brazilian government desires a stronger exchange rate of 40 cents/real than the market rate of 35 cents/real. Perhaps Brazil desires the stronger currency to reduce aggregate demand and to fight inflation, or perhaps Brazil believes that that current market exchange rate is temporarily lower than the long-term rate. Whatever the reason, at the higher desired exchange rate, the quantity supplied of 16 billion reals exceeds the quantity demanded of 14 billion reals.
::14(b) 显示相反的情况:巴西政府希望40美分/实际汇率高于35美分/实际市场汇率。 也许巴西希望以更强的货币来减少总需求和遏制通货膨胀,或者巴西认为目前的市场汇率暂时低于长期汇率。 无论出于何种原因,以更高的预期汇率计算,160亿实际汇率的供给量超过了140亿实际汇率的需求量。Brazil’s central bank can use a contractionary monetary policy to raise interest rates, which will increase demand and reduce supply of the currency on foreign exchange markets, and lead to an appreciation. Alternatively, Brazil’s central bank can trade directly in the foreign exchange market. In this case, with an excess supply of its own currency in foreign exchange markets, the central bank must use reserves of foreign currency, like U.S. dollars, to demand its own currency and thus cause an appreciation of its exchange rate.
::巴西央行可以利用紧缩货币政策提高利率,这将增加外汇市场需求和减少货币供应,并导致升值。 或者,巴西央行可以直接在外汇市场进行交易。 在这种情况下,由于本国货币在外汇市场上供应过多,央行必须使用外汇储备,如美元,来要求自己的货币,从而导致汇率升值。Both a soft peg and a hard peg policy require that the central bank intervene in the foreign exchange market. However, a hard peg policy attempts to preserve a fixed exchange rate at all times. A soft peg policy typically allows the exchange rate to move up and down by relatively small amounts in the short run of several months or a year, and to move by larger amounts over time, but seeks to avoid extreme short-term fluctuations.
::软挂钩和硬挂钩政策都要求央行干预外汇市场。 然而,硬挂钩政策试图在任何时候都保持固定汇率。 软挂钩政策通常允许汇率在几个月或一年的短期内以相对较小的数额上下移动,并随着时间的推移以较大数额上下移动,但试图避免极端的短期波动。Tradeoffs of Soft Pegs and Hard Pegs
::软佩格和硬佩格的取舍When a country decides to alter the market exchange rate, it faces a number of tradeoffs. If it uses monetary policy to alter the exchange rate, it then cannot at the same time use monetary policy to address issues of inflation or recession. If it uses direct purchases and sales of foreign currencies in exchange rates, then it must face the issue of how it will handle its reserves of foreign currency. Finally, a pegged exchange rate can even create additional movements of the exchange rate; for example, even the possibility of government intervention in exchange rate markets will lead to rumors about whether and when the government will intervene, and dealers in the foreign exchange market will react to those rumors. Let’s consider these issues in turn.
::当一个国家决定改变市场汇率时,它就会面临一系列权衡。 如果它使用货币政策来改变汇率,那么它就不能同时使用货币政策来解决通货膨胀或衰退问题。 如果它使用直接购买和以汇率出售外币的问题,那么它必须面对如何处理外汇储备的问题。 最后,挂钩的汇率甚至能够造成汇率的进一步波动;比如,即使政府干预汇率市场的可能性也会引发关于政府是否干预以及何时干预的谣言,而外汇市场上的经销商也会对这些谣言作出反应。 让我们反过来考虑这些问题。One concern with pegged exchange rate policies is that they imply a country’s monetary policy is no longer focused on controlling inflation or shortening recessions, but now must also take the exchange rate into account. For example, when a country pegs its exchange rate, it will sometimes face economic situations where it would like to have an expansionary monetary policy to fight recession—but it cannot do so because that policy would depreciate its exchange rate and break its hard peg. With a soft peg exchange rate policy, the central bank can sometimes ignore the exchange rate and focus on domestic inflation or recession—but in other cases the central bank may ignore inflation or recession and instead focus on its soft peg exchange rate. With a hard peg policy, domestic monetary policy is effectively no longer determined by domestic inflation or unemployment, but only by what monetary policy is needed to keep the exchange rate at the hard peg.
::与固定汇率政策挂钩的一个担忧是,它们意味着一国的货币政策不再侧重于控制通胀或缩短衰退,而现在也必须将汇率考虑在内。 比如,当一国将汇率挂钩时,它有时会面临它希望采取扩张货币政策以对抗衰退的经济状况 — — 但是它不能这样做,因为这一政策会贬值其汇率并打破其坚硬的束缚。 有了软固定汇率政策,央行有时会忽略汇率,关注国内通胀或衰退 — — 但在其他情况下,央行可能会忽视通胀或衰退,而是关注其软固定汇率。 如果实行硬固定汇率政策,国内货币政策实际上不再由国内通胀或失业决定,而只能由货币政策将汇率维持在硬挂钩状态。Another issue arises when a central bank intervenes directly in the exchange rate market. If a central bank ends up in a situation where it is perpetually creating and selling its own currency on foreign exchange markets, it will be buying the currency of other countries, like U.S. dollars or euros, to hold as reserves. Holding large reserves of other currencies has an opportunity cost, and central banks will not wish to boost such reserves without limit.
::另一个问题是当央行直接干预汇率市场时。 如果央行最终陷入其长期在外汇市场上创造和销售本国货币的局面,它将购买其他国家货币(如美元或欧元)作为储备持有。 持有大量其他货币的储备有着机会成本,而央行也不愿意无限制地增加这种储备。In addition, a central bank that causes a large increase in the supply of money is also risking an inflationary surge in aggregate demand. Conversely, when a central bank wishes to buy its own currency, it can do so by using its reserves of international currency like the U.S. dollar or the euro. But if the central bank runs out of such reserves, it can no longer use this method to strengthen its currency. Thus, buying foreign currencies in exchange rate markets can be expensive and inflationary, while selling foreign currencies can work only until a central bank runs out of reserves.
::此外,导致货币供应大幅增加的央行也面临着总需求通胀激增的风险。 相反,当央行希望购买自己的货币时,它可以通过使用美元或欧元等国际货币储备来购买自己的货币。 但如果央行用完了这些储备,它就再也不能使用这种方法来强化货币。 因此,在汇率市场上购买外币可能代价昂贵且通胀性高,而出售外币只能等到央行用完储备后才起作用。Yet another issue is that when a government pegs its exchange rate, it may unintentionally create another reason for additional fluctuation. With a soft peg policy, foreign exchange dealers and international investors react to every rumor about how or when the central bank is likely to intervene to influence the exchange rate, and as they react to rumors the exchange rate will shift up and down. Thus, even though the goal of a soft peg policy is to reduce short-term fluctuations of the exchange rate, the existence of the policy—when anticipated in the foreign exchange market—may sometimes increase short-term fluctuations as international investors try to anticipate how and when the central bank will act. The following Clear It Up feature discusses the effects of international capital flows—capital that flows across national boundaries as either portfolio investment or direct investment.
::另一个问题是,当政府将其汇率固定起来时,它可能无意中制造了另一个进一步波动的原因。 有了软挂钩政策,外汇交易商和国际投资者就会对关于中央银行可能如何或何时干预以影响汇率的谣言作出反应,而当中央银行对谣言作出反应时,汇率会上下波动。 因此,即使软挂钩政策的目标是减少汇率的短期波动,但政策的存在 — — 当外汇市场预期时 — — 有时会增加短期波动,因为国际投资者试图预测中央银行将如何和何时采取行动。 清一色之后的特征讨论了国际资本流动的影响 — — 资本以证券投资或直接投资的形式跨越国界流动。A hard peg exchange rate policy will not allow short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. If the government first announces a hard peg and then later changes its mind—perhaps the government becomes unwilling to keep interest rates high or to hold high levels of foreign exchange reserves—then the result of abandoning a hard peg could be a dramatic shift in the exchange rate.
::硬挂钩汇率政策不会允许汇率的短期波动。 如果政府首先宣布硬挂钩,然后改变主意 — — 也许政府不愿意保持高利率或持有高水平外汇储备 — — 那么放弃硬挂钩的结果可能是汇率的急剧变化。In the mid-2000s, about one-third of the countries in the world used a soft peg approach and about one-quarter used a hard peg approach. The general trend in the 1990s was to shift away from a soft peg approach in favor of either floating rates or a hard peg. The concern is that a successful soft peg policy may, for a time, lead to very little variation in exchange rates, so that firms and banks in the economy begin to act as if a hard peg exists. When the exchange rate does move, the effects are especially painful because firms and banks have not planned and hedged against a possible change. The prevailing argument, then, is that it is better either to be clear that the exchange rate is always flexible, or that it is fixed, but choosing an in-between soft peg option may end up being worst of all.
::20世纪20年代中期,世界上大约三分之一的国家使用了软钉子方法,大约四分之一的国家使用了硬钉子方法。 1990年代的总趋势是从软钉子方法转向浮动汇率或硬钉子。 担心的是成功的软钉子政策在一段时间内会导致汇率的极小变化,从而使经济中的公司和银行开始像硬钉子一样行动。 当汇率确实移动时,其影响特别痛苦,因为公司和银行没有计划和对准可能的变化。 那么,流行的争论是,要么是明确汇率总是灵活,要么是固定的,但在软钉子选择之间选择一个最糟糕的选择。A Merged Currency
::合并货币A final approach to exchange rate policy is for a nation to choose a common currency shared with one or more nations is also called a merged currency. A merged currency approach eliminates foreign exchange risk altogether. Just as no one worries about exchange rate movements when buying and selling between New York and California, Europeans know that the value of the euro will be the same in Germany and France and other European nations that have adopted the euro.
::汇率政策的最后方针是一国选择与一个或多个国家共享的共同货币也被称为合并货币。 合并货币方针完全消除了外汇风险。 正如没有人担心在纽约和加利福尼亚之间的买卖时汇率波动,欧洲人知道欧元在德国和法国以及采用欧元的其他欧洲国家的价值是一样的。However, a merged currency also poses problems. Like a hard peg, a merged currency means that a nation has given up altogether on domestic monetary policy, and instead has put its interest rate policies in other hands. When Ecuador uses the U.S. dollar as its currency, it has no voice in whether the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates. The European Central Bank that determines monetary policy for the euro has representatives from all the euro nations. However, from the standpoint of, say, Portugal, there will be times when the decisions of the European Central Bank about monetary policy do not match the decisions that would have been made by a Portuguese central bank.
::但是,合并的货币也带来了问题。 与困难的挂钩一样,合并的货币意味着一个国家已经完全放弃了国内货币政策,而是将其利率政策交给了其他国家。 当厄瓜多尔使用美元作为其货币时,它没有发言权来决定美联储是提高还是降低利率。 确定欧元货币政策的欧洲中央银行有来自所有欧元国家的代表。 但是,从葡萄牙的角度来看,欧洲央行关于货币政策的决定有时与葡萄牙中央银行的决定不符。The lines between these four different exchange rate policies can blend into each other. For example, a soft peg exchange rate policy in which the government almost never acts to intervene in the exchange rate market will look a great deal like a floating exchange rate. Conversely, a soft peg policy in which the government intervenes often to keep the exchange rate near a specific level will look a lot like a hard peg. A decision to merge currencies with another country is, in effect, a decision to have a permanently fixed exchange rate with those countries, which is like a very hard exchange rate peg. The range of exchange rates policy choices, with their advantages and disadvantages, are summarized in 8.
::这四种不同的汇率政策之间的界线可以相互融合。 比如,软挂钩汇率政策,政府几乎从未干预汇率市场,这看起来就像浮动汇率。 相反,软挂钩政策,政府干预将汇率维持在接近特定水平的水平上,这看起来非常像硬挂钩。 决定与另一个国家合并货币实际上是决定与这些国家保持永久固定汇率,这就像非常硬的汇率挂钩。 汇率政策选择的范围及其利弊在8中概述。Tradeoffs of Exchange Rate Policies
::汇率政策取舍Situation
::情况状况Floating Exchange Rates
::汇率波动Soft Peg
::软佩格Hard Peg
::硬佩格Merged Currency
::合并货币Large short-run fluctuations in exchange rates?
::汇率的短期大幅波动?Often a lot in the short term
::短期内经常有很多Maybe less in the short run, but still large changes over time
::短期可能更少,但随时间变化仍然很大None, unless a change in the fixed rate
::无,除非固定费率有变动None
::无无无无无无无Large long-term fluctuations in exchange rates?
::汇率的长期大幅波动?Can often happen
::经常发生Can often happen
::经常发生Cannot happen unless hard peg changes, in which case substantial volatility can occur
::除非硬性钉钩改变,否则不可能发生这种情况,在这种情况下,可能发生大幅度波动Cannot happen
::无法发生Power of central bank to conduct countercyclical monetary policy?
::中央银行采取反周期货币政策的权力?Flexible exchange rates make monetary policy stronger
::灵活汇率使货币政策更加强大Some power, although conflicts may arise between exchange rate policy and countercyclical policy
::虽然汇率政策与反周期政策之间可能发生冲突Very little; central bank must keep the exchange rate fixed
::很少;中央银行必须保持汇率固定不变None; nation does not have its own currency
::无;国家没有自己的货币Costs of holding foreign exchange reserves?
::持有外汇储备的费用?Do not need to hold reserves
::不需要持有储备金Hold moderate reserves that rise and fall over time
::持有随时间而增减的适度储备Hold large reserves
::持有大量储备金No need to hold reserves
::无需持有储备金Risk of being stuck with an exchange rate that causes a large trade imbalance and very high inflows or outflows of financial capital?
::受汇率束缚的风险,这种汇率造成巨大的贸易不平衡,金融资本流入或流出非常高?Adjusts often
::经常调整Adjusts over the medium term, if not the short term
::中期调整,如果不是短期调整May become stuck over time either far above or below the market level
::可能在一段时间内被困在市场水平之上或之下。Cannot adjust
::无法调整Global macroeconomics would be easier if the whole world had one currency and one central bank. The exchange rates between different currencies complicate the picture. If exchange rates are set solely by financial markets, they fluctuate substantially as short-term portfolio investors try to anticipate tomorrow’s news. If the government attempts to intervene in exchange rate markets through soft pegs or hard pegs, it gives up at least some of the power to use monetary policy to focus on domestic inflations and recessions, and it risks causing even greater fluctuations in foreign exchange markets.
::如果全世界都有一个货币和一个央行,全球宏观经济就会更加容易。 不同货币之间的汇率使情况复杂化。 如果汇率完全由金融市场决定,那么它们就会随着短期证券投资者试图预测明天的消息而大幅波动。 如果政府试图通过软钉子或硬钉子干预汇率市场,它至少会放弃一些使用货币政策关注国内通胀和衰退的权力,并有可能引发外汇市场更大的波动。There is no consensus among economists about which exchange rate policies are best: floating, soft peg, hard peg, or merged currencies. The choice depends both on how well a nation’s central bank can implement a specific exchange rate policy and on how well a nation’s firms and banks can adapt to different exchange rate policies. A national economy that does a fairly good job at achieving the four main economic goals of growth, low inflation, low unemployment, and a sustainable balance of trade will probably do just fine most of the time with any exchange rate policy; conversely, no exchange rate policy is likely to save an economy that consistently fails at achieving these goals. On the other hand, a merged currency applied across wide geographic and cultural areas carries with it its own set of problems, such as the ability for countries to conduct their own independent monetary policies.
::经济学家们对于哪种汇率政策最合适没有共识:浮动、软挂钩、硬挂钩或合并货币。 选择取决于一国央行执行具体汇率政策的能力以及一国企业和银行适应不同汇率政策的能力。 国民经济在实现增长、低通胀、低失业率和可持续贸易平衡这四项主要经济目标方面做得相当好,在任何汇率政策下,大部分时间都可能做得很好;相反,任何汇率政策都不可能拯救一个一直未能实现这些目标的经济。 另一方面,在广阔地域和文化地区实行合并货币也随身携带一系列问题,比如各国实施自己的独立货币政策的能力。- Is a Stronger Dollar Good for the U.S. Economy?
The foreign exchange value of the dollar is a price and whether a higher price is good or bad depends on where you are standing: sellers benefit from higher prices and buyers are harmed. A stronger dollar is good for U.S. imports (and people working for U.S. importers) and U.S. investment abroad. It is also good for U.S. tourists going to other countries, since their dollar goes further. But a stronger dollar is bad for U.S. exports (and people working in U.S. export industries); it is bad for foreign investment in the United States (leading, for example, to higher U.S. interest rates); and it is bad for foreign tourists (as well as U.S hotels, restaurants, and others in the tourist industry). In short, whether the U.S. dollar is good or bad is a more complex question than you may have thought. The economic answer is “it depends.”
::美元汇率是一个价格,高价是好还是坏取决于你所处的地位:卖主从高价中获益,买家受到伤害;美元坚挺对美国进口品(以及美国进口商员工)和美国海外投资有利。 美元对美国游客来说也是好事,因为美元走得更远。 但美元坚挺对美国出口(以及美国出口行业员工)不利;对美国外国投资不利(例如导致美国利率上升);对外国游客(以及美国旅馆、餐馆和旅游业其他人)不利。 简言之,美元是好还是坏,比你们想象的要复杂得多。 经济答案是“取决于它 ” 。In a floating exchange rate policy, a country’s exchange rate is determined in the foreign exchange market. In a soft peg exchange rate policy, a country’s exchange rate is usually determined in the foreign exchange market, but the government sometimes intervenes to strengthen or weaken the exchange rate. In a hard peg exchange rate policy, the government chooses an exchange rate. A central bank can intervene in exchange markets in two ways. It can raise or lower interest rates to make the currency stronger or weaker. Or it can directly purchase or sell its currency in foreign exchange markets. All exchange rates policies face tradeoffs. A hard peg exchange rate policy will reduce exchange rate fluctuations, but means that a country must focus its monetary policy on the exchange rate, not on fighting recession or controlling inflation. When a nation merges its currency with another nation, it gives up on nationally oriented monetary policy altogether.
::在浮动汇率政策中,一国的汇率由外汇市场决定。 在软挂钩汇率政策中,一国的汇率通常由外汇市场决定,但政府有时干预以强化或削弱汇率。 在硬挂钩汇率政策中,政府选择汇率。 中央银行可以通过两种方式干预汇率市场。 它可以提高或降低利率以使货币更强或更弱。 或者它可以直接在外汇市场上购买或出售货币。 所有汇率政策都面临权衡。 硬挂钩汇率政策将减少汇率波动,但意味着一个国家必须将其货币政策集中于汇率,而不是打击衰退或控制通货膨胀。 当一个国家将其货币与另一个国家合并时,它完全放弃国家导向的货币政策。A soft peg exchange rate may create additional volatility as exchange rate markets try to anticipate when and how the government will intervene. A flexible exchange rate policy allows monetary policy to focus on inflation and unemployment and allows the exchange rate to change with inflation and rates of return, but also raises a risk that exchange rates may sometimes make large and abrupt movements. The spectrum of exchange rate policies includes: (a) a floating exchange rate, (b) a pegged exchange rate, soft or hard, and (c) a merged currency. Monetary policy can focus on a variety of goals: (a) inflation; (b) inflation or unemployment, depending on which is the most dangerous obstacle; and (c) a long-term rule based policy designed to keep the money supply stable and predictable.
::软挂钩汇率可能会随着汇率市场试图预测政府何时以及如何干预而造成更多的波动。 灵活的汇率政策允许货币政策关注通货膨胀和失业,允许汇率随通货膨胀和回报率而变化,但也带来汇率有时会发生大规模突然波动的风险。 汇率政策的范围包括Videos: Foreign Exchange and Foreign Exchange Practice
::录像:外汇和外汇惯例View the first video below for a review of exchange rates. View the second video for practice.
::下面第一段录像用于审查汇率。第二段录像用于练习。Answer the self check questions below to monitor your understanding of the concepts in this section.
::回答下面的自我核对问题,以监测你对本节概念的理解。Self Check Questions
::自查问题1. Define foreign exchange.
::1. 界定外汇。2. What is a foreign exchange rate?
::2. 什么是外汇兑换率?3. What is a trade deficit?
::3. 什么是贸易赤字?4. What is a trade surplus?
::4. 什么是贸易顺差?5. Define the trade-weighted value of the dollar.
::5. 界定美元的贸易加权价值。6. Go online and research the current trade-weighted value of the dollar against the Euro, the Yen, and the British Pound.
::6. 上网研究当前美元对欧元、日元和英镑的贸易加权值。7. What happens to trade when the dollar is strong?
::7. 当美元坚挺时贸易会怎样?8. What are some consequences of a trade deficit?
::8. 贸易逆差有什么后果? -
A long lasting trade deficit affects the value of a nation's currency.
