3.4 失业
Section outline
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Unemployment
::失业失业Despite enormous growth in the size of the U.S. population and labor force in the twentieth-century, along with other major trends like globalization and new technology, the unemployment rate shows no long-term rising trend. Unemployment imposes high costs. Unemployed individuals suffer from loss of income and from stress. An economy with high unemployment suffers an opportunity cost of unused resources. The adult population can be divided into those in the labor force and those out of the labor force. In turn, those in the labor force are divided into employed and unemployed. A person without a job must be willing and able to work and actively looking for work to be counted as unemployed ; otherwise, a person without a job is counted as being out of the labor force.
::尽管20世纪美国人口和劳动力规模以及全球化和新技术等其他主要趋势大幅增长,但失业率没有显示长期上升的趋势。失业造成高成本。失业导致高成本。失业者遭受收入损失和压力。高失业率经济遭受未使用资源的机会成本。成年人口可以分为劳动力和劳动力以外的人口。反过来,劳动力中的成年人口可以分为就业人口和失业人口。没有工作的人必须愿意并有能力工作并积极寻找工作,以被算作失业;否则,没有工作的人将被算作失业人口。Universal Generalizations
::普遍化-
Frictional, structural, cyclical, seasonal, and technological are the different types of unemployment.
::扭曲、结构、周期性、季节性和技术是不同类型的失业。 -
Full employment is one of the seven economic and social goals of the U.S. economy.
::充分就业是美国经济的七个经济和社会目标之一。 -
The unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched economic statistics in the U.S.
::失业率是美国最受关注的经济统计数据之一。
Guiding Questions
::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问-
How does the government collect data on the unemployment rate?
::政府如何收集失业率数据? -
What can the unemployment rate tell economists about the health of the U.S. economy?
::失业率能告诉经济学家什么是美国经济的健康? -
Why is the employment rate the hardest to maintain?
::为什么就业率是最难维持的?
Introduction to Unemployment
::失业介绍
Unemployment can be a terrible and wrenching life experience—like a serious automobile accident or a messy divorce—whose consequences can be fully understood only by someone who has gone through it. For unemployed individuals and their families, there is the day-to-day financial stress of not knowing where the next paycheck is coming from. There are painful adjustments, like watching your savings account dwindle, selling a car and buying a cheaper one, or moving to a less expensive place to live. Even when the unemployed person finds a new job, it may pay less than the previous one. For many people, their job is an important part of their self-worth. When unemployment separates people from the workforce, it can affect family relationships as well as mental and physical health.
::失业可能是一种可怕的、令人痛苦的生活经历——就像严重的汽车事故或混乱的离婚——其后果只能由经历过这种经历的人来完全理解。对于失业的个人及其家庭来说,日常的财政压力在于不知道下一个工资支票从哪来。 有一些痛苦的调整,比如看着你的储蓄账户减少,卖车和买便宜的汽车,或者搬到一个较便宜的地方居住。即使失业者找到新的工作,其工资也可能低于以前的,对许多人来说,他们的工作是他们自我价值的一个重要部分。 当失业将人们与劳动力分开时,它会影响家庭关系以及精神和身体健康。The human costs of unemployment alone would justify making a low level of unemployment an important public policy priority. But unemployment also includes economic costs to the broader society. When millions of unemployed but willing workers cannot find jobs, an economic resource is going unused. An economy with high unemployment is like a company operating with a functional but unused factory. The opportunity cost of unemployment is the output that could have been produced by the unemployed workers.
::单是失业的人类成本就有理由将低失业率作为公共政策的重要优先事项。 但失业也包括更广泛的社会的经济成本。 当数百万失业但愿意工作的工人无法找到工作时,经济资源就会被浪费掉。 高失业率经济就像一家公司经营一个功能正常但未使用的工厂。 失业的机会成本是失业工人本可以生产的产出。This section will discuss how the unemployment rate is defined and computed. It will examine the patterns of unemployment over time, for the U.S. economy as a whole, for different demographic groups in the U.S. economy, and for other countries. It will then consider an economic explanation for unemployment, and how it explains the patterns of unemployment and suggests public policies for reducing it.
::本节将讨论失业率的定义和计算方式,将审查长期失业模式,包括整个美国经济、美国经济中不同人口群体和其他国家的失业模式,然后将考虑对失业的经济解释,以及如何解释失业模式并提出减少失业的公共政策。Video: The Fed Explained: Labor Force and Unemployment
::视频:美联储解释:劳动力与失业How the Unemployment Rate is Defined and Computed
::如何界定和计算失业率Unemployment is typically described in newspaper or television reports as a percentage or a rate. A recent report might have said, for example, from August 2009 to November 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.7% to 10.0%, but by June 2010, it had fallen to 9.5% . At a glance, the changes between the percentages may seem small. But remember that the U.S. economy has about 155 million adults who either have jobs or are looking for them. A rise or fall of just 0.1% in the unemployment rate of 155 million potential workers translates into 155,000 people, which is roughly the total population of a city like Syracuse, New York, Brownsville, Texas, or Pasadena, California. Large rises in the unemployment rate mean large numbers of job losses. The increase from 5% in April 2008 to 10% by November 2009 meant an additional 7.75 million people were looking for jobs but could not find them.
::报纸或电视报道通常将失业描述为百分比或比率。 例如,最近一份报告可能指出,2009年8月至2009年11月,美国失业率从9.7%上升到10.0%,但到2010年6月,失业率已经下降到9.5%。 粗略地看,百分比之间的变化似乎很小。但记住美国经济有1.55亿成年人,他们要么有工作,要么正在寻找工作。1.55亿潜在工人的失业率上升或下降仅仅0.1 % , 相当于155 000人,大约相当于锡拉丘兹、纽约、布朗斯维尔、得克萨斯州或加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳等城市的总人口。失业率的大幅上升意味着大量失业。 2008年4月,5%的失业率上升到2009年11月的10 % ,意味着新增的775万人寻找工作,但找不到工作。Who’s In or Out of the Labor Force?
::谁在劳动力还是不在劳动力?Should everyone without a job be counted as unemployed? Of course not. Children, for example, should not be counted as unemployed. Surely, the retired should not be counted as unemployed. Many full-time college students have only a part-time job, or no job at all, but it seems inappropriate to count them as suffering the pains of unemployment. Some people are not working because they are rearing children, ill, on vacation, or on parental leave.
::没有工作的人是否都算作失业?当然不是。比如说,儿童就不应该算作失业。当然,退休的人不应该算作失业。 许多全日制大学生只有兼职工作,或者根本没有工作,但把他们算作失业的痛苦似乎不适当。 有些人因为抚养子女、生病、休假或者育儿假而没有工作。The point is that the adult population is not just divided into employed and unemployed. A third group exists: people who do not have a job, and for some reason—retirement, looking after children, taking a voluntary break before a new job—are not interested in having a job, either. It also includes those who do want a job but have quit looking, often due to being discouraged by their inability to find suitable employment. Economists refer to this third group of those who are not working and not looking for work as out of the labor force or not in the labor force.
::问题是成年人口不仅被划分为就业人口和失业人口。 第三个群体存在:没有工作的人,由于某种原因,退休、照顾子女、在新工作之前自愿休息的人,也无意找工作,还包括那些想要工作但因无法找到合适的工作而不愿找工作而辞职的人。 经济学家提到这第三组不工作、不以劳动力或非劳动力为对象寻找工作的人。The U.S. unemployment rate, which is based on a monthly survey carried out by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, asks a series of questions to divide up the adult population into employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. To be classified as unemployed, a person must be without a job, currently available to work, and actively looking for work in the previous four weeks. Thus, a person who does not have a job but who is not currently available to work or has not actively looked for work in the last four weeks is counted as out of the labor force.
::美国的失业率基于美国人口普查局每月进行的调查,它提出了一系列问题,将成年人口分为就业人口、失业人口或非劳动力人口。 要被归类为失业,一个人必须没有工作,目前可以工作,并在前四个星期积极寻找工作。 因此,没有工作但目前没有工作或过去四个星期没有积极找工作的人被算作劳动力。Employed : currently working for pay
::就业:目前从事有薪工作Unemployed : Out of work and actively looking for a job
::失业:失业和积极寻找工作Out of the labor force : Out of paid work and not actively looking for a job
::劳动力以外的劳动力:没有从事有报酬工作,没有积极寻找工作Labor force : the number of employed plus the unemployed
::劳动力:就业人数加失业人数Calculating the Unemployment Rate
::计算失业率1 shows the three-way division of the over-16 adult population. In 2012, 63.7% of the adult population was “in the labor force;” that is, either employed or without a job but looking for work. Those in the labor force can be divided into the employed and the unemployed. These values are also shown in . The unemployment rate is not the percentage of the total adult population without jobs, but rather the percentage of adults who are in the labor force but who do not have jobs:
::2012年,63.7%的成年人口是“劳动力;”即就业或无工作但寻找工作。 劳动力中的人可以分为就业人口和失业人口。 这些价值观也体现在 。 失业率不是没有工作的成人总人口的百分比,而是没有工作的成年人的百分比:Unemployment rate = Unemployed people
::失业率=失业人口Total labor force × 100
::劳动力总数x100- Employed, Unemployed, and Out of the Labor Force Distribution of Adult Population (age 16 and older), February 2015
The total adult, working-age population in February 2015 was 249.9 million. Out of this total population, 148.3 were classified as employed, and 8.7 million were classified as unemployed. The remaining 92.9 were classified as out of the labor force. As you will learn, however, this seemingly simple chart does not tell the whole story.
::2015年2月,成年人、劳动适龄人口总数为2.499亿,其中148.3人被列为就业人口,870万人被列为失业人口,其余92.9人被列为劳动力之外。 不过,你们会知道,这个看起来简单的图表并没有反映整个情况。U.S. Employment And Unemployment, February 2015 Total adult population over the age of 16 249.9 million In the labor force 157 million (62.8%) Employed 148.3 million Unemployed 8.7 million Out of the labor force 92.9 million (37.2%) Table 1: U.S. Employment and Unemployment, 2015 (Source: )In this example, the unemployment rate can be calculated as 8.7 million unemployed people divided by 157 million people in the labor force, which works out to a 5.5% rate of unemployment. The following Work It Out feature will walk you through the steps of this calculation.
::在这个例子中,失业率可以计算为870万失业人口,其中劳动力人口除以1.57亿,失业率达到5.5%。 接下来的“工作出来”特征将引导你走过这一计算步骤。Work It Out : Calculating Labor Force Percentages
::工作:计算劳动力百分比So how do economists arrive at the percentages in and out of the labor force and the unemployment rate?
::那么经济学家如何得出劳动力中和劳动力外的百分比以及失业率呢?We will use the values in Table 1 to illustrate the steps.
::我们将使用表1中的数值来说明步骤。- To determine the percentage in the labor force:
- Step 1. Divide the number of people in the labor force (157 million) by the total adult (working-age) population (249.9 million).
- Step 2. Multiply by 100 to obtain the percentage.
-
Percentage in the labor force= 157/249.9 = 0.6282 or 62.8%
::劳动力百分比=1 234.9.9= 0.6282,即62.8%。 -
To determine the percentage out of the labor force: -
Step 1. Divide the number of people out the labor force (92.9 million) by the total adult (working-age) population (249.9 million).
Step 2. Multiply by 100 to obtain the percentage. - Percentage in the labor force= 92.9 / 249.9 = 0.3717 or 37.2%
- To determine the unemployment rate:
- Step 1. Divide the number of unemployed people (8.7 million) by the total labor force (157 million).
- Step 2. Multiply by 100 to obtain the rate.
- Unemployment Rate = 8.7 / 157 = 0.0554 or 5.5 %
Hidden Unemployment
::隐性失业Even with the “out of the labor force” category, there are still some people that are mislabeled in the categorization of employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force. There are some people who have only part-time or temporary jobs and who are looking for full time and permanent employment that are counted as employed, though they are not employed in the way they would like or need to be. Additionally, there are individuals who are underemployed. This includes those that are trained or skilled for one type or level of work who are working in a lower paying job or one that does not utilize their skills. For example, an individual with a college degree in finance who is working as a sales clerk would be considered underemployed. They are, however, also counted in the employed group. All of these individuals fall under the umbrella of the term “hidden unemployment.” Discouraged workers, those who have stopped looking for employment and, therefore , are no longer counted in the unemployed also fall into this group
::即使在“劳动力之外”的类别中,仍有一些人在就业、失业或劳动力以外的分类中被错误地标记为就业、失业或劳动力以外的某些人,有些人只从事非全时或临时工作,寻找全职和长期就业,虽然他们没有按自己希望或需要的方式就业,但都算作就业,此外,还有一些人就业不足,包括从事一种类型或程度的工作而经过培训或熟练从事某种类型或技术工作的人,他们从事的是低工资工作,或者没有利用其技能的人,例如,有大学学位的金融业人员,如果从事的是销售办事员,则被视为就业不足的人,不过,他们也算在就业群体中,所有这些人都属于“临时失业”这一术语的范畴。Labor Force Participation Rate
::劳动力参与率Another important statistic is the labor force participation rate. This is the percentage of adults in an economy who are either employed or who are unemployed and looking for a job. So, using the data in and , those included in this calculation would be the 154.9 million individuals in the labor force. The rate is calculated by taking the number of people in the labor force, that is, the number employed and the number unemployed, divided by the total adult population and multiplying by 100 to get the percentage. For the data from 2012, the labor force participation rate is 63.7%. In the United States the labor force participation rate is usually around 67-68%.
::另一个重要统计数据是劳动力参与率。这是在某个经济体中就业或失业并寻找工作的成年人的百分比。因此,使用数据,计算中包括的数据将是劳动力的1.549亿人。 计算方法是劳动力人数,即就业人数和失业人数,除以成人总人口,再乘以100以获得百分比。 2012年的数据是63.7%。 在美国,劳动力参与率通常约为67-68%。The Establishment Payroll Survey
::机构薪金调查When the unemployment report comes out each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also reports on the number of jobs created—which comes from the establishment payroll survey. The payroll survey is based on a survey of about 140,000 businesses and government agencies throughout the United States. It generates payroll employment estimates by the following criteria: all employees, average weekly hours worked, and average hourly, weekly, and overtime earnings. One of the criticisms of this survey is that it does not count the self-employed. It also does not make a distinction between new, minimum wage, part time or temporary jobs and full time jobs with “decent” pay.
::每月失业报告出来时,劳工统计局(BLS)也报告创造的工作岗位数量,这些岗位来自机构工资调查,工资调查以对美国各地大约140 000个企业和政府机构的调查为基础,根据以下标准得出工资就业估计:所有雇员、每周平均工作时间、每小时平均工资、每周平均工资和加班收入,这项调查的批评之一是,它不计入自营职业者,也不区分新的、最低工资、非全时或临时工作以及 " 适当 " 工资的全时工作。How Is the U.S. Unemployment Data Collected?
::美国失业数据是如何收集的?The unemployment rate announced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics each month is based on the Current Population Survey (CPS), which has been carried out every month since 1940. Great care is taken to make this survey representative of the country as a whole. The country is first divided into 3,137 areas. The U.S. Bureau of the Census then selects 729 of these areas to survey. The 729 areas are then divided into districts of about 300 households each, and each district is divided into clusters of about four dwelling units. Every month, Census Bureau employees call about 15,000 of the four-household clusters, for a total of 60,000 households. Households are interviewed for four consecutive months, then rotated out of the survey for eight months, and then interviewed again for the same four months the following year, before leaving the sample permanently.
::美国劳工统计局每月宣布的失业率是根据自1940年以来每个月进行的当前人口调查(CPS)确定的。非常小心地使这项调查代表全国。该国首先分为3,137个地区。然后,美国人口普查局从这些地区中挑选了729个地区进行调查,然后将729个地区分为每个地区约300个家庭,每个地区分为大约4个居住区。每月,普查局雇员在4个住户组中约15,000个住户组,总共60,000个住户组,连续4个月接受面谈,然后轮调离开调查,8个月,然后在接下来的4个月里再次接受面谈,然后永久离开抽样。Based on this survey, unemployment rates are calculated by state, industry, urban and rural areas, gender, age, race or ethnicity, and level of education. A wide variety of other information is available, too. For example, how long have people been unemployed? Did they become unemployed because they quit, or were laid off, or their employer went out of business? Is the unemployed person the only wage earner in the family? The Current Population Survey is a treasure trove of information about employment and unemployment.
::根据这项调查,失业率按国家、工业、城市和农村地区、性别、年龄、种族或族裔以及教育水平计算,还有其他各种资料,例如,失业人员已失业多久?他们是否因为辞职或被解雇而失业,或其雇主失业?失业人员是否是家庭中唯一的挣工资者?当前人口调查是就业和失业信息的宝库。
Criticisms of Measuring Unemployment
::衡量失业的批评There are always complications in measuring the number of unemployed. For example, what about people who do not have jobs and would be available to work, but have gotten discouraged by the lack of available jobs in their area and stopped looking? Such people, and their families, may be suffering the pains of unemployment. But the survey counts them as out of the labor force because they are not actively looking for work. Other people may tell the Census Bureau that they are ready to work and looking for a job but, truly, they are not that eager to work and are not looking very hard at all. They are counted as unemployed, although they might more accurately be classified as out of the labor force. Still, other people may have a job, perhaps doing something like yard work, child care, or cleaning houses, but are not reporting the income earned to the tax authorities. They may report being unemployed when they are actually working.
::衡量失业人数总是有复杂因素。 比如,那些没有工作、可以工作、但因地区缺乏工作而感到沮丧、不再寻找工作的人呢?这些人及其家人可能正在遭受失业的痛苦。但是调查把他们算作劳动力之外的人,因为他们没有积极寻找工作。其他人可能告诉人口普查局,他们已经准备好工作和寻找工作,但实际上,他们并不急于工作,没有非常努力地寻找工作。他们被算作失业,尽管他们可能更准确地被归类为劳动力之外。 其他人可能还有工作,也许可以做院外工作、照顾子女或打扫房屋等工作,但是没有向税务部门报告收入情况。他们实际上工作时可能会报告失业情况。Although the unemployment rate gets most of the public and media attention, economic researchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics publish a wide array of surveys and reports that try to measure these kinds of issues and to develop a more nuanced and complete view of the labor market. It is not exactly a hot news flash that economic statistics are imperfect. Even imperfect measures like the unemployment rate, however, can still be quite informative, when interpreted knowledgeably and sensibly.
::尽管失业率得到了大部分公众和媒体的注意,但劳动统计局的经济研究人员公布了一系列广泛的调查和报告,试图衡量这些问题,并形成对劳动力市场更加细微和完整的观点。 经济统计不完善并不是一个热门新闻。 然而,即使不完善的措施,比如失业率,也可以提供相当的信息,如果解释得有知识且明智的话。Unemployment imposes high costs. Unemployed individuals suffer from loss of income and from stress. An economy with high unemployment suffers an opportunity cost of unused resources. The adult population can be divided into those in the labor force and those out of the labor force. In turn, those in the labor force are divided into employed and unemployed. A person without a job must be willing and able to work and actively looking for work to be counted as unemployed; otherwise, a person without a job is counted as being out of the labor force. The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed persons divided by the number of persons in the labor force (not the overall adult population). The Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the United States Census Bureau measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. The establishment payroll survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the net change in jobs created for the month.
::失业者必须承担高额的失业费用; 失业人员遭受收入损失和压力; 失业人数高的经济体遭受未使用资源的机会成本; 成年人口可以分为劳动力和劳动力以外的人口; 反过来,劳动力中的成年人口被分为就业人口和失业人口; 失业人员必须愿意和能够工作并积极寻找工作以计为失业; 否则,没有工作的人将被计为劳动力以外的人员; 失业率的定义是失业人数除以劳动力中的人数(而不是全体成人人口); 美国人口普查局进行的当前人口调查衡量失业劳动力的百分比; 劳动统计局的建立工资调查衡量该月创造的工作岗位的净变化。Patterns of Unemployment
::失业模式Let’s look at how unemployment rates have changed over time and how various groups of people are affected by unemployment differently. shows the historical pattern of U.S. unemployment 1948–2012.
::让我们看看失业率如何随时间推移而变化,以及不同群体受失业影响的程度如何不同。 这显示了1948-2012年美国失业的历史模式。Historical U.S. Unemployment Rate
::美国历史失业率The U.S. unemployment rate moves up and down as the economy moves in and out of recessions. But over time, the unemployment rate seems to return to a range of 4% to 6%. There does not seem to be a long-term trend toward the rate moving generally higher or generally lower. (Source: www.census.gov/cps)
::美国的失业率随着经济的回升和走出衰退而不断上升和下降。 但随着时间的推移,失业率似乎又回到了4%到6%之间。 似乎没有出现长期趋势,即失业率普遍上升或普遍下降。 (资料来源:www.census.gov/cps)As we look at this data, several patterns stand out:
::当我们看这个数据时,有几种模式是突出的:1) Unemployment rates do fluctuate over time. During the deep recessions of the early 1980s and of 2007–2009, unemployment reached roughly 10%. For comparison, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the unemployment rate reached almost 25% of the labor force.
::1) 失业率确实随时间而波动。 在1980年代初和2007—2009年的深度衰退期间,失业率达到了大约10 % 。 相比之下,在1930年代的大萧条时期,失业率几乎达到了劳动力的25 % 。2) Unemployment rates in the late 1990s and into the mid-2000s were rather low by historical standards. The unemployment rate was below 5% from 1997 to 2000 and near 5% during almost all of 2006–2007. The previous time unemployment had been less than 5% for three consecutive years was three decades earlier, from 1968 to 1970.
::2) 20世纪90年代末和20世纪中期的失业率按历史标准来说相当低。 1997-2000年的失业率低于5 % , 几乎在2006-2007年全年都低于5 % 。 此前连续三年的失业率低于5 % , 1968-1970年是30年前。3) The unemployment rate never falls all the way to zero . Indeed, it never seems to get below 3%—and it stays that low only for very short periods. (Reasons why this is the case will be discussed later.)
::3) 失业率从未跌至零。 事实上,失业率从未跌到3°C以下,而且仅保持如此低的极短时期。 (关于为什么情况如此,将在稍后讨论。 )4) The timing of rises and falls in unemployment matches fairly well with the timing of upswings and downswings in the overall economy. During periods of recession and depression, unemployment is high. During periods of economic growth, unemployment tends to be lower.
::4) 失业率上升和下降的时机与整个经济的上升和下滑的时机相当吻合。 在衰退和萧条时期,失业率居高不下。 在经济增长时期,失业率往往较低。5) No significant upward or downward trend in unemployment rates is apparent . This point is especially worth noting because the U.S. population nearly quadrupled from 76 million in 1900 to over 314 million by 2012. Moreover, a higher proportion of U.S. adults are now in the paid workforce, because women have entered the paid labor force in significant numbers in recent decades. Women composed 18% of the paid workforce in 1900 and nearly half of the paid workforce in 2012. But despite the increased number of workers, as well as other economic events like globalization and the continuous invention of new technologies, the economy has provided jobs without causing any long-term upward or downward trend in unemployment rates.
::这一点尤其值得注意,因为美国人口从1900年的7600万增至2012年的3.14亿,几乎翻了两番。 此外,美国成人中现在有更高比例的有薪劳动力,因为妇女进入有薪劳动力队伍的比例近几十年来相当高。 妇女在1900年占有薪劳动力的18%,2012年占有薪劳动力的近一半。 但是,尽管工人人数增加,以及全球化和不断发明新技术等其他经济事件,但经济提供的就业机会并没有导致失业率的长期上升或下降趋势。Unemployment Rates by Group
::按群体分列的失业率Unemployment is not distributed evenly across the U.S. population. shows unemployment rates broken down in various ways: by gender, age, and race/ethnicity.
::失业分布不均匀的美国人口。 失业率以不同方式细分:按性别、年龄和种族/族裔分列。Unemployment Rate by Demographic Group
::按人口群体分列的失业率(a) By gender, 1972–2012. Unemployment rates for men used to be lower than unemployment rates for women, but in recent decades, the two rates have been very close, often with the unemployment rate for men somewhat higher. (b) By age, 1972–2012. Unemployment rates are highest for the very young and become lower with age. (c) By race and ethnicity, 1972–2012. Although unemployment rates for all groups tend to rise and fall together, the unemployment rate for whites has been lower than the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics in recent decades. (Source:
The unemployment rate for women had historically tended to be higher than the unemployment rate for men, perhaps reflecting the historical pattern that women were seen as “secondary” earners. By about 1980, however, the unemployment rate for women was essentially the same as that for men, as shown in (a). During the recession of 2008–2009, however, the unemployment rate climbed higher for men than for women.
::从历史上看,女性失业率往往高于男性失业率,这或许反映了女性被视为“第二代”劳动者的历史模式。 但是,到1980年左右,女性失业率与男性基本相同,如(a)所示。 然而,在2008-2009年经济衰退期间,男性失业率上升高于女性。Younger workers tend to have higher unemployment, while middle-aged workers tend to have lower unemployment, probably because the middle-aged workers feel the responsibility of needing to have a job more heavily. Younger workers move in and out of jobs (and in and out of the labor force) more easily. Elderly workers have extremely low rates of unemployment, because those who do not have jobs often exit the labor force by retiring, and thus are not counted in the unemployment statistics. (b) shows unemployment rates for women divided by age; the pattern for men is similar.
::年轻工人的失业率往往较高,而中年工人的失业率往往较低,这可能是因为中年工人感到需要更大量的工作。年轻工人更容易地进出工作(以及劳动力的进出)。老年工人的失业率极低,因为那些没有工作的人往往在退休后退出劳动力队伍,因此没有计入失业统计。 (b) 妇女的失业率按年龄分列;男子的情况相似。The unemployment rate for African-Americans is substantially higher than the rate for other racial or ethnic groups, a fact that reflects, to some extent, a pattern of discrimination that has constrained blacks’ labor market opportunities. However, the gaps between unemployment rates for whites and for blacks and Hispanics diminished in the 1990s, as shown in (c). In fact, unemployment rates for blacks and Hispanics were at the lowest levels for several decades in the mid-2000s before rising during the recent Great Recession.
::非裔美国人的失业率大大高于其他种族或族裔群体的失业率,这一事实在某种程度上反映了一种限制黑人劳动力市场机会的歧视模式。 然而,正如(c)所示,1990年代白人、黑人和西班牙裔的失业率差距缩小了。 事实上,黑人和西班牙裔的失业率在2000年代中期处于20世纪20年代中期的最低水平,而在最近的大萧条期间则在上升。Finally, those with less education typically suffer higher unemployment. In early 2013, for example, the unemployment rate for those with a college degree was 3.7%; for those with some college but not a four-year degree, the unemployment rate was 6.0%; for high school graduates with no additional degree, the unemployment rate was 7.6%; and for those without a high school diploma, the unemployment rate was 10.3%. This pattern may arise because additional education offers better connections to the labor market and higher demand, or it may occur because the labor market opportunities for low-skilled workers are less attractive than the opportunities for the more highly-skilled. Because of lower pay, low-skilled workers may be less motivated to find jobs.
::最后,那些教育程度较低的人通常失业率较高。 比如,在2013年初,拥有大学学位的人的失业率为3.7%;那些拥有某些大学但无四年学位的人的失业率为6.0%;没有额外学位的高中毕业生的失业率为7.6%;没有高中文凭的人的失业率为10.3%。 出现这种模式可能是因为额外教育与劳动力市场的联系更加紧密,需求更高,也可能是因为低技能工人的劳动力市场机会比高技能者的机会更缺乏吸引力。 由于工资较低,低技能工人可能不太愿意找到工作。Breaking Down Unemployment in Other Ways
::以其他方式打破失业The Bureau of Labor Statistics also gives information about the reasons for being unemployed as well as the length of time individuals have been unemployed. , for example, shows the four reasons for being unemployed and the percentages of the currently unemployed that fall into each category. shows the length of unemployment. For both of these, the data is from May of 2013. (bls.gov)
::劳工统计局还提供资料,说明失业原因和个人失业时间的长短。 例如,显示失业的四个原因和属于每一类的目前失业者的百分比,显示失业时间,这两个数据都是2013年5月的数据(bls.gov)。Reasons for Being Unemployed, May 2013
::失业原因,2013年5月Reason
::原因原因原因原因原因原因原因Percentage
::百分比百分比百分比(%)New Entrants
::新建内容10.8%
Re-entrants
::复发者28.5%
Job Leavers
::离职者8.1%
Job Losers: Temporary
::失业者:临时8.5%
Job Losers: Non Temporary
::失业人员:非临时44.1%
Length of Unemployment, May 2013
::失业时间,2013年5月Length of Time
::时间长度Percentage
::百分比百分比百分比(%)Under 5 weeks
::5周以下23.2%
5 to 14 weeks
::5至14周22.8%
15 to 26 weeks
::15至26周16.7%
Over 27 weeks
::27周以上37.3%
International Unemployment Comparisons
::国际失业比较From an international perspective, the U.S. unemployment rate typically has looked a little better than average. compares unemployment rates for 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 (just before the recession), and 2011 (somewhat after the recession) from several other high-income countries.
::从国际角度看,美国的失业率通常略高于平均水平。 与其他几个高收入国家的1991、1996、2001、2006年(在衰退前)和2011年(在衰退后)的失业率相比,美国的失业率通常略高于平均水平。International Comparisons of Unemployment Rates
::失业率国际比较Country
::国家1991
1996
2001
2006
2012
United States
::美国 美国 美国 美国6.8%
5.4%
4.8%
4.4%
8.1%
Canada
::加拿大 加拿大 加拿大9.8%
8.8%
6.4%
6.2%
6.3%
Japan
::日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本2.1%
3.4%
5.1%
4.5%
3.9%
France
::法国 法国 法国 法国 法国 法国9.5%
12.5%
8.7%
10.1%
10.0%
Germany
::德国 德国5.6%
9.0%
8.9%
9.8%
5.5%
Italy
::意大利 意大利 意大利 意大利6.9%
11.7%
9.6%
7.8%
10.8%
Sweden
::瑞典 瑞典 瑞典 瑞典3.1%
9.9%
5.0%
5.2%
7.9%
United Kingdom
::联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国 联合王国8.8%
8.1%
5.1%
5.5%
8.0%
However, cross-country comparisons of unemployment rates need to be treated with care, because each country has slightly different survey tools for measuring unemployment and also different labor markets. For example, Japan’s unemployment rates appear quite low, but Japan’s economy has been mired in slow growth and recession since the late 1980s, and Japan’s unemployment rate probably paints too rosy a picture of its labor market. In Japan, workers who lose their jobs are often quick to exit the labor force and not look for a new job, in which case they are not counted as unemployed. In addition, Japanese firms are often quite reluctant to fire workers, and so firms have substantial numbers of workers who are on reduced hours or officially employed but doing very little. This Japanese pattern is perhaps best viewed as an unusual method for society to provide support for the unemployed, rather than a sign of a healthy economy.
::然而,对失业率的跨国比较需要谨慎对待,因为每个国家都有衡量失业和劳动力市场差异的略微不同的调查工具。 比如,日本的失业率似乎相当低,但日本经济自1980年代末以来陷入了缓慢增长和衰退,日本的失业率可能描绘了日本劳动力市场的景象。 在日本,失业工人往往很快退出劳动力队伍,而没有寻找新的工作,在这种情况下,他们不被视为失业。 此外,日本公司往往非常不愿意解雇工人,因此,大量工人都工作时间缩短或正式雇用,但很少做任何工作。 也许最好将日本的这种模式视为社会为失业者提供支助的不寻常方法,而不是健康经济的标志。Comparing unemployment rates in the United States and other high-income economies with unemployment rates in Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia is very difficult. One reason is that the statistical agencies in many poorer countries lack the resources and technical capabilities of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. But a more difficult problem with international comparisons is that in many low-income countries, most workers are not involved in the labor market through an employer who pays them regularly. Instead, workers in these countries are engaged in short-term work, subsistence activities, and barter. Moreover, the effect of unemployment is very different in high-income and low-income countries. Unemployed workers in the developed economies have access to various government programs like unemployment insurance, welfare, and food stamps; such programs may barely exist in poorer countries. Although unemployment is a serious problem in many low-income countries, it manifests itself in a different way than in high-income countries.
::将美国和其他高收入经济体的失业率与拉丁美洲、非洲、东欧和亚洲的失业率进行比较是非常困难的。原因之一是许多较贫穷国家的统计机构缺乏美国人口普查局的资源和技术能力。但国际比较中更困难的问题是,在许多低收入国家,大多数工人没有通过定期支付工资的雇主参与劳动力市场。相反,这些国家的工人从事短期工作、维持生计的活动和易货交易。此外,高收入和低收入国家的失业影响非常不同。发达经济体的失业工人可以参加各种政府方案,如失业保险、福利和粮食券;这类方案可能很少存在于较贫穷的国家。虽然失业在许多低收入国家是一个严重问题,但失业表现方式与高收入国家不同。The U.S. unemployment rate rises during periods of recession and depression but falls back to the range of 4% to 6% when the economy is strong. The unemployment rate never falls to zero. Despite enormous growth in the size of the U.S. population and labor force in the twentieth century, along with other major trends like globalization and new technology, the unemployment rate shows no long-term rising trend.
::美国的失业率在衰退和萧条期间上升,但在经济强劲时回落到4%到6%。 失业率从未下降到零。 尽管20世纪美国人口和劳动力规模以及全球化和新技术等其他主要趋势都大幅增长,但失业率并没有出现长期上升的趋势。Unemployment rates differ by group: higher for African-Americans and Hispanics than for whites; higher for less educated than more educated; higher for the young than the middle-aged. Women’s unemployment rates used to be higher than men’s, but in recent years men’s and women’s unemployment rates have been very similar. In recent years, unemployment rates in the United States have compared favorably with unemployment rates in most other high-income economies.
::不同群体的失业率不尽相同:非裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率高于白人;受教育程度低的人的失业率高于受教育程度高的人;年轻人的失业率高于中年人。 妇女的失业率过去比男性高,但近年来男女失业率非常相似。 近年来,美国的失业率与其他大多数高收入经济体的失业率相比是较好的。What Causes Changes in Unemployment over the Short Run
::短期失业变化的原因We have seen that unemployment varies across times and places. What causes changes in unemployment? There are different answers in the short run and in the long run. Let's look at the short run first.
::我们已经看到,失业在不同的时间和地点各不相同,是什么原因导致失业变化?从短期和长期来看,答案是不同的。让我们先看看短期。Cyclical Unemployment
::周期性失业Let’s make the plausible assumption that in the short run, from a few months to a few years, the quantity of hours that the average person is willing to work for a given wage does not change much, so the labor supply curve does not shift much. In addition, make the standard ceteris paribus assumption that there is no substantial short-term change in the age structure of the labor force, institutions and laws affecting the labor market, or other possibly relevant factors.
::让我们假设从几个月到几年的短期内,普通人愿意为特定工资工作的时间数量没有多大变化,因此劳动力供应曲线没有太大变化。 此外,让标准兽医法假设劳动力年龄结构、机构和法律在短期内不会发生影响劳动力市场的重大变化,也不会发生其他可能的相关因素。One primary determinant of the demand for labor from firms is how they perceive the state of the macroeconomy. If firms believe that business is expanding, then at any given wage they will desire to hire a greater quantity of labor, and the labor demand curve shifts to the right. Conversely, if firms perceive that the economy is slowing down or entering a recession, then they will wish to hire a lower quantity of labor at any given wage, and the labor demand curve will shift to the left. The variation in unemployment caused by the economy moving from expansion to recession or from recession to expansion (i.e. the business cycle) is known as cyclical unemployment.
::企业对劳动力需求的一个主要决定因素是他们如何看待宏观经济状况。 如果企业认为企业正在扩张,那么在任何特定工资水平上,它们都希望雇用更多劳动力,而劳动力需求曲线则向右转移。 相反,如果企业认为经济正在放缓或进入衰退,那么它们就会希望以任何给定工资雇用更低的劳动力,而劳动力需求曲线将转向左翼。 经济从扩张向衰退或衰退向扩张(即商业周期)转移造成的失业变化被称为周期性失业。From the standpoint of the supply-and-demand model of competitive and flexible labor markets, unemployment represents something of a puzzle. In a supply-and-demand model of a labor market, as illustrated in , the labor market should move toward an equilibrium wage and quantity. At the equilibrium wage (We), the equilibrium quantity (Qe) of labor supplied by workers should be equal to the quantity of labor demanded by employers.
::从竞争性和灵活的劳动力市场供需模式的角度来看,失业是一个难题。 在劳动力市场供需模式中,正如前文所示,劳动力市场应该向平衡工资和数量发展。 在平衡工资(我们)方面,工人提供的劳动力平衡数量(Qe)应该与雇主要求的劳动力数量相等。The Unemployment and Equilibrium in the Labor Market
::劳动力市场的失业和平衡In a labor market with flexible wages, the equilibrium will occur at wage We and quantity Qe, where the number of people looking for jobs (shown by S) equals the number of jobs available (shown by D).
::在工资弹性的劳动力市场上,平衡将发生在工资(我们)和数量(Qe)上,在那里,寻找工作(由S决定)的人数相当于现有工作(由D决定)的数量。One possibility for unemployment is that people who are unemployed are those who are not willing to work at the current equilibrium wage, say $10 an hour, but would be willing to work at a higher wage, like $20 per hour. The monthly Current Population Survey would count these people as unemployed, because they say they are ready and looking for work (at $20 per hour). But from an economist’s point of view, these people are choosing to be unemployed.
::失业的一种可能性是失业者是那些不愿意按目前平衡工资工作的人,比如说每小时10美元,但愿意以更高的工资工作,比如每小时20美元。 每月一次的人口调查会将这些人算作失业,因为他们说他们已经准备就绪并正在寻找工作(每小时20美元 ) 。 但经济学家认为,这些人选择失业。Probably a few people are unemployed because of unrealistic expectations about wages, but they do not represent the majority of the unemployed. Instead, unemployed people often have friends or acquaintances of similar skill levels who are employed, and the unemployed would be willing to work at the jobs and wages similar to what is being received by those people. But the employers of their friends and acquaintances do not seem to be hiring. In other words, these people are involuntarily unemployed. What causes involuntary unemployment?
::也许有少数人因为对工资的不切实际期望而失业,但他们并不代表失业人员的大多数。 相反,失业人员往往有具有类似技能水平的朋友或熟人就业,失业者愿意从事与这些人得到的工作和工资相似的工作和工作。但是,他们的朋友和熟人的雇主似乎并不雇用他们。换句话说,这些人是非自愿失业。 是什么导致非自愿失业?Why Wages Might Be "Sticky Downward"
::为什么工资会是"斜斜向下"If a labor market model with flexible wages does not describe unemployment very well—because it predicts that anyone willing to work at the going wage can always find a job—then it may prove useful to consider economic models in which wages are not flexible or adjust only very slowly. In particular, even though wage increases may occur with relative ease, wage decreases are few and far between.
::如果具有弹性工资的劳动力市场模式没有很好地描述失业——因为它预测,愿意按现行工资工作的人总能找到工作——那么,考虑工资不灵活或调整非常缓慢的经济模式可能证明是有益的。 特别是,尽管工资增长可能比较容易,但工资下降幅度很小,距离工资下降也很少。One set of reasons why wages may be “sticky downward,” as economists put it, involves economic laws and institutions. For low-skilled workers being paid the minimum wage, it is illegal to reduce their wages. For union workers operating under a multiyear contract with a company, wage cuts might violate the contract and create a labor dispute or a strike. However, minimum wages and union contracts are not a sufficient reason why wages would be sticky downward for the U.S. economy as a whole. After all, out of the 150 million or so workers in the U.S. economy, only about 1.4 million—less than 2% of the total—are paid the minimum wage. Similarly, only about 12% of American wage and salary workers are represented by a labor union. In other high-income countries, more workers may have their wages determined by unions or the minimum wage may be set at a level that applies to a larger share of workers. For the United States, however, these two factors combined affect only about one-fifth or less of the labor force.
::经济学家指出,工资可能“坚持下调”的原因之一是经济法律和制度。 对于低技能工人来说,最低工资的支付是非法的。对于与公司签订多年合同的工会工人来说,工资削减可能违反合同,造成劳资纠纷或罢工。然而,最低工资和工会合同并不是整个美国经济工资持续下调的充足理由。 毕竟,在美国经济的1.5亿左右的工人中,只有140万左右 — — 不到最低工资总额的2% — — 得到最低工资。 同样,只有大约12%的美国工资和工资工人由工会代表。 在其他高收入国家,更多的工人的工资可能由工会决定,或者最低工资可能定在适用于更大比例的工人的水平上。 但是,对于美国来说,这两个因素只影响到大约五分之一或更少的劳动力。Economists looking for reasons why wages might be sticky downward have focused on factors that may characterize most labor relationships in the economy, not just a few. A number of different theories have been proposed, but they share a common tone.
::寻找为什么工资可能持续下调的原因的经济学家关注的是经济中大多数劳动关系中可能具有特征的因素,而不仅仅是少数因素。 提出了许多不同的理论,但它们有着共同的基调。One argument is that even employees who are not union members often work under an implicit contract, which is that the employer will try to keep wages from falling when the economy is weak or the business is having trouble, and the employee will not expect huge salary increases when the economy or the business is strong. This wage-setting behavior acts like a form of insurance: the employee has some protection against wage declines in bad times, but pays for that protection with lower wages in good times. Clearly, this sort of implicit contract means that firms will be hesitant to cut wages, lest workers feel betrayed and work less hard or even leave the firm.
::一种论点是,即使非工会会员的雇员也往往根据隐性合同工作,也就是说,当经济疲软或企业有麻烦时,雇主会试图防止工资下降,而当经济或企业强劲时,雇员也不会指望工资大幅提高。 这种工资确定行为就像一种保险形式:雇员在坏的时候可以免受工资下降的某种保护,但在好的时候却以较低的工资支付这种保护。 显然,这种隐性合同意味着公司会犹豫不决地削减工资,以免工人感到被背叛,工作不那么辛苦,甚至离开公司。Efficiency wage theory argues that the productivity of workers depends on their pay, and so employers will often find it worthwhile to pay their employees somewhat more than market conditions might dictate. One reason is that employees who are paid better than others will be more productive because they recognize that if they were to lose their current jobs, they would suffer a decline in salary. As a result, they are motivated to work harder and to stay with the current employer. In addition, employers know that it is costly and time-consuming to hire and train new employees, so they would prefer to pay workers a little extra now rather than to lose them and have to hire and train new workers. Thus, by avoiding wage cuts, the employer minimizes costs of training and hiring new workers, and reaps the benefits of well-motivated employees.
::效率工资理论认为,工人的生产率取决于他们的工资,因此雇主往往认为值得付给其雇员的工资比市场条件可能要求的多一些。 原因之一是,工资比其他人高的雇员将更富有生产力,因为他们认识到,如果他们失去现有工作,他们就会遭受工资下降的影响。因此,他们有志于更加努力地工作,在目前的雇主那里继续工作。 此外,雇主知道,雇用和培训新雇员既费钱又费时,因此他们宁愿现在多付给工人一点钱,而不是失去他们,而不得不雇用和培训新工人。 因此,雇主通过避免工资削减,最大限度地降低培训和雇用新工人的成本,并获得动机良好的雇员的福利。The adverse selection of wage cuts argument points out that if an employer reacts to poor business conditions by reducing wages for all workers, then the best workers, those with the best employment alternatives at other firms, are the most likely to leave. The least attractive workers, with fewer employment alternatives, are more likely to stay. Consequently, firms are more likely to choose which workers should depart, through layoffs and firings, rather than trimming wages across the board. Sometimes companies that are going through tough times can persuade workers to take a pay cut for the short term and still retain most of the firm’s workers. But these stories are notable because they are so uncommon. It is far more typical for companies to lay off some workers rather than to cut wages for everyone.
::工资削减的不利选择观点指出,如果雇主通过降低所有工人的工资来对恶劣的商业条件作出反应,那么最好的工人 — — 在其他公司拥有最佳就业选择的工人 — — 最有可能离开。 最没有吸引力的工人 — — 就业选择较少 — — 更有可能留下来。 因此,公司更可能选择哪些工人应该离开,办法是裁员和解雇,而不是全面削减工资。 有时,正在经历艰难时期的公司可以说服工人短期削减工资,并仍然保留大部分公司工人。 但是,这些故事是值得注意的,因为它们非常罕见。 公司解雇某些工人而不是削减每个人的工资更为常见。The insider-outsider model of the labor force, in simple terms, argues that those already working for firms are “insiders,” while new employees, at least for a time, are “outsiders.” A firm depends on its insiders to grease the wheels of the organization, to be familiar with routine procedures, to train new employees, and so on. However, cutting wages will alienate the insiders and damage the firm’s productivity and prospects.
::内部外派劳动力模式简单地说,那些已经在公司工作的员工是“内行 ” , 而新员工,至少在一段时间内,则是“外行 ” 。 公司依靠内部员工来擦干组织的轮子,熟悉常规程序,培训新员工等等。 然而,削减工资会疏远内部员工,损害企业的生产率和前景。Finally, the relative wage coordination argument points out that even if most workers were hypothetically willing to see a decline in their own wages in bad economic times as long as everyone else also experiences such a decline, there is no obvious way for a decentralized economy to implement such a plan. Instead, workers confronted with the possibility of a wage cut will worry that other workers will not have such a wage cut, and so a wage cut means being worse off both in absolute terms and relative to others. As a result, workers fight hard against wage cuts.
::最后,相对的工资协调论指出,即使大多数工人假设愿意在经济不景气时期看到他们自己的工资下降,只要其他人也经历这种下降,分散化的经济也没有明显的方式执行这样的计划。 相反,面临工资削减可能性的工人会担心其他工人不会得到这种工资削减,因此工资削减意味着在绝对值和相对比其他工人更糟糕。 结果,工人在努力反对工资削减。These theories of why wages tend not to move downward differ in their logic and their implications, and figuring out the strengths and weaknesses of each theory is an ongoing subject of research and controversy among economists. All tend to imply that wages will decline only very slowly, if at all, even when the economy or a business is having tough times. When wages are inflexible and unlikely to fall, then either short-run or long-run unemployment can result. This can be seen in .
::这些关于为什么工资在逻辑和影响上倾向于不向下走的理论在逻辑和意义上有所不同,而找出每一种理论的优缺点是经济学家之间不断研究和争论的主题。 所有这些都暗示工资下降得非常缓慢,即使经济或企业处于艰难时期,也只能如此。 当工资不灵活且不太可能下降时,那么短期或长期失业就会随之而来。 这可以从中看出。Sticky Wages in the Labor Market
::劳动力市场的固定工资Because the wage rate is stuck at W, above the equilibrium, the number of job seekers (Qs) is greater than the number of job openings (Qd). The result is unemployment, shown by the bracket in the figure.
::由于工资率被卡在W,高于平衡,求职者人数(Qs)大于空缺职位(Qd),结果失业,按图中的括号显示。The interaction between shifts in labor demand and wages that are sticky downward are shown in .
::劳动力需求变化与持续下调的工资之间的相互作用在下文中有所显示。6 (a) illustrates the situation in which the demand for labor shifts to the right from D 0 to D 1 . In this case, the equilibrium wage rises from W 0 to W 1 and the equilibrium quantity of labor hired increases from Q 0 to Q 1 . It does not hurt employee morale at all for wages to rise.
::6(a) 说明对劳动力的需求从D0转向D1向右转移的情况。 在这种情况下,平衡工资从W0上升到W1, 雇用劳动力的平衡数量从Q0增加到Q1, 工资上升丝毫不影响员工士气。(b) shows the situation in which the demand for labor shifts to the left, from D 0 to D 1 , as it would tend to do in a recession. Because wages are sticky downward, they do not adjust toward what would have been the new equilibrium wage (Q 1 ), at least not in the short run. Instead, after the shift in the labor demand curve, the same quantity of workers is willing to work at that wage as before; however, the quantity of workers demanded at that wage has declined from the original equilibrium (Q 0 ) to Q 2 . The gap between the original equilibrium quantity (Q 0 ) and the new quantity demanded of labor (Q 2 ) represents workers who would be willing to work at the going wage but cannot find jobs. The gap represents the economic meaning of unemployment.
:b) 显示劳动力需求向左转移的情况,从D0到D1,因为衰退时往往会这样做。由于工资持续下降,他们不会适应新的平衡工资(Q1),至少短期内不会。相反,在劳动力需求曲线变化之后,工人愿意按以前那样的工资工作;然而,要求工资的工人数量已经从原来的平衡(Q0)下降到了Q2。 最初的平衡数量(Q0)与要求的新的劳动力数量(Q2)之间的差距代表了愿意按现行工资工作但找不到工作的工人。这一差距代表了失业的经济意义。
Rising Wage and Low Unemployment: Where Is the Unemployment in Supply and Demand?
::工资上升和失业率低:供求失业情况如何?(a) In a labor market where wages are able to rise, an increase in the demand for labor from D 0 to D 1 leads to an increase in equilibrium quantity of labor hired from Q 0 to Q 1 and a rise in the equilibrium wage from W 0 to W 1 . (b) In a labor market where wages do not decline, a fall in the demand for labor from D 0 to D 1 leads to a decline in the quantity of labor demanded at the original wage (W 0 ) from Q 0 to Q 2 . These workers will want to work at the prevailing wage (W 0 ), but will not be able to find jobs.
:This analysis helps to explain the connection noted earlier: that unemployment tends to rise in recessions and to decline during expansions. The overall state of the economy shifts the labor demand curve and, combined with wages that are sticky downward, unemployment changes. The rise in unemployment that occurs because of a recession is cyclical unemployment.
::这一分析有助于解释前面提到的关联:失业往往在衰退中上升,在扩张期间下降。 总体经济状况改变了劳动力需求曲线,加上工资持续下降,失业也随之变化。 衰退导致的失业上升是周期性失业。Cyclical unemployment rises and falls with the business cycle. In a labor market with flexible wages, wages will adjust in such a market so that quantity demanded of labor always equals the quantity supplied of labor at the equilibrium wage. Many theories have been proposed for why wages might not be flexible, but instead may adjust only in a “sticky” way, especially when it comes to downward adjustments: implicit contracts, efficiency wage theory, adverse selection of wage cuts, insider-outsider model, and relative wage coordination.
::周期性失业随着商业周期而上升和下降。 在工资弹性的劳动力市场中,工资将在这样的市场中调整,这样要求的劳动力数量总是与均衡工资的劳动力数量相等。 许多理论已经提出为什么工资可能不灵活,而只能以“固定”的方式调整,特别是在下调方面:隐性合同、效率工资理论、对工资削减的不利选择、内向型和相对工资协调。What Causes Changes in Unemployment over the Long Run
::长期失业变化的原因Cyclical unemployment explains why unemployment rises during a recession and falls during an economic expansion. But what explains the remaining level of unemployment even during good economic times? Why is the unemployment rate never zero? Even when the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the unemployment rate only rarely dips as low as 4%. Moreover, the discussion earlier pointed out that unemployment rates in many European countries like Italy, France, and Germany have often been remarkably high at various times in the last few decades. Why does some level of unemployment persist even when economies are growing strongly? Why are unemployment rates continually higher in certain economies, through good economic years and bad? Economists have a term to describe the remaining level of unemployment that occurs even when the economy is healthy: it is called the natural rate of unemployment.
::周期性失业解释了为何在经济衰退期间失业率会上升,在经济扩张期间失业率会下降。但是,为什么即使在良好的经济时期失业率也会继续下降呢?为什么失业率永远不会是零?即使美国经济强劲增长,失业率也很少降低到4%。 此外,前面的讨论指出,在过去几十年中,意大利、法国和德国等许多欧洲国家的失业率在不同时期都非常高。 即便经济强劲增长,为什么失业率仍然会维持某种水平?为什么某些经济体的失业率会通过良好的经济年和糟糕的经济年不断上升?经济学家有一个术语来描述即使在经济健康的情况下也会出现的剩余失业率:它被称为自然失业率。The Long Run: The Natural Rate of Unemployment
::长跑:自然失业率The natural rate of unemployment is not “natural” in the sense that water freezes at 32 degrees Fahrenheit or boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit. It is not a physical and unchanging law of nature. Instead, it is only the “natural” rate because it is the unemployment rate that would result from the combination of economic, social, and political factors that exist at a time—assuming the economy was neither booming nor in recession. These forces include the usual pattern of companies expanding and contracting their workforces in a dynamic economy, social and economic forces that affect the labor market, or public policies that affect either the eagerness of people to work or the willingness of businesses to hire. Let’s discuss these factors in more detail.
::自然失业率并不是“自然”的,因为水冻结在32华氏32度,或沸腾在212华氏212度。 它不是自然法则,而是自然法则不变。 相反,这只是“自然”率,因为当时存在的经济、社会和政治因素综合在一起会产生失业率 — — 假设经济既不繁荣也不衰退 — — 这些力量包括公司在影响劳动力市场的动态经济、社会和经济力量中扩大和承包劳动力的通常模式,或者影响人们工作渴望或企业愿意雇用的公共政策。 让我们更详细地讨论这些因素。Frictional Unemployment
::波动性失业In a market economy, some companies are always going broke for a variety of reasons: old technology; poor management; good management that happened to make bad decisions; shifts in tastes of consumers so that less of the firm’s product is desired; a large customer who went broke; or tough domestic or foreign competitors. Conversely, other companies will be doing very well for just the opposite reasons and looking to hire more employees. In a perfect world, all of those who lost jobs would immediately find new ones. But in the real world, even if the number of job seekers is equal to the number of job vacancies, it takes time to find out about new jobs, to interview and figure out if the new job is a good match, or perhaps to sell a house and buy another in proximity to a new job. The unemployment that occurs in the meantime, as workers move between jobs, is called frictional unemployment. Frictional unemployment is not inherently a bad thing. It takes time on the part of both the employer and the individual to match those looking for employment with the correct job openings. For individuals and companies to be successful and productive, you want people to find the job for which they are best suited, not just the first job offered.
::在市场经济中,有些公司总是因为各种原因而破产:老式技术;管理不善;良好的管理,碰巧做出糟糕的决定;消费者的口味的改变,以致企业的产品更不理想;大客户破产;或者国内或外国竞争对手强硬。 相反,其他公司由于相反的原因将表现得非常好,并寻求雇用更多的雇员。在一个完美的世界中,所有失去工作的人都会立即找到新的工作。但在现实世界中,即使求职者的人数与空缺职位的数量相等,找到新的工作、面试和确定新工作是否与公司产品匹配,或者也许出售房子和购买另一个在新工作附近。与此同时,工人在工作之间流动,失业现象被称为摩擦性失业。在雇主和个人方面都需要时间才能让那些寻找工作的人与正确的职位空缺数量相匹配。对于成功和生产性的个人和公司来说,你希望找到他们最适合的工作,而不是首先提供的工作。In the mid-2000s, before the recession of 2008–2009, it was true that about 7% of U.S. workers saw their jobs disappear in any three-month period. But in periods of economic growth, these destroyed jobs are counterbalanced for the economy as a whole by a larger number of jobs created. In 2005, for example, there were typically about 7.5 million unemployed people at any given time in the U.S. economy. Even though about two-thirds of those unemployed people found a job in 14 weeks or fewer, the unemployment rate did not change much during the year, because those who found new jobs were largely offset by others who lost jobs.
::在2008—2009年经济衰退之前的2000年代中期,美国有7%的工人确实在任何三个月的时间内失业了。 但在经济增长时期,这些被摧毁的工作岗位在整个经济中被创造的更多工作岗位抵消。 比如,2005年,美国经济中任何一个特定时期都有大约750万失业人口。 尽管大约三分之二的失业人口在14周或更短的时间内找到了工作,但失业率在当年没有多大变化,因为那些找到新工作的人基本上被失去工作的其他人所抵消。Of course, it would be preferable if people who were losing jobs could immediately and easily move into the new jobs being created, but in the real world, that is not possible. Someone who is laid off by a textile mill in South Carolina cannot turn around and immediately start working for a textile mill in California. Instead, the adjustment process happens in ripples. Some people find new jobs near their old ones, while others find that they must move to new locations. Some people can do a very similar job with a different company, while others must start new career paths. Some people may be near retirement and decide to look only for part-time work, while others want an employer that offers a long-term career path. The frictional unemployment that results from people moving between jobs in a dynamic economy may account for one to two percentage points of total unemployment.
::当然,如果那些失去工作的人能够立即和轻松地进入正在创造的新工作岗位,但是在现实世界中,这是不可能的。在南卡罗来纳州,被纺织厂解雇的人不能转身,不能立即开始在加利福尼亚的纺织厂工作。相反,调整过程在波纹中发生。有些人在旧工作岗位附近找到新的工作,而另一些人则发现他们必须搬到新的地点。有些人可以在不同的公司从事非常相似的工作,而另一些人则必须开始新的职业道路。有些人可能即将退休,决定只寻找兼职工作,而其他人则希望有一个提供长期职业道路的雇主。在充满活力的经济中工作之间的摩擦性失业可能占总失业的一至两个百分点。The level of frictional unemployment will depend on how easy it is for workers to learn about alternative jobs, which may reflect the ease of communications about job prospects in the economy. The extent of frictional unemployment will also depend to some extent on how willing people are to move to new areas to find jobs—which in turn may depend on history and culture.
::摩擦性失业水平将取决于工人如何容易地了解替代工作,这也许反映了关于经济中就业前景的交流简便。 摩擦性失业的程度在某种程度上还取决于人们如何愿意迁往新的领域寻找工作 — — 这反过来又取决于历史和文化。Frictional unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment also seem to depend on the age distribution of the population. (b) showed that unemployment rates are typically lower for people between 25–54 years of age than they are for those who are either younger or older. “Prime-age workers,” as those in the 25–54 age bracket are sometimes called, are typically at a place in their lives when they want to have a job and income arriving at all times. But some proportion of those who are under 30 may still be trying out jobs and life options and some proportion of those over 55 are eyeing retirement. In both cases, the relatively young or old tend to worry less about unemployment than those in-between, and their periods of frictional unemployment may be longer as a result. Thus, a society with a relatively high proportion of relatively young or old workers will tend to have a higher unemployment rate than a society with a higher proportion of its workers in middle age.
::短期失业和自然失业率似乎也取决于人口的年龄分布。 (b) 表明25-54岁人口的失业率通常低于年龄在25-54岁之间的人的失业率。 25-54岁年龄段的人有时被叫作“低龄工人 ” , “ 低龄工人 ” , 而在25-54岁年龄段的人,他们通常在生活中的某个地方想有工作和收入,但30岁以下者中有些人可能仍然在努力寻找工作和生活选择,55岁以上者中有些人在看退休。 在这两种情况下,相对年轻或年老者对失业的担心都比中间者少,因此他们之间的失业时间可能更长。 因此,相对年轻或老年工人比例较高的社会的失业率往往高于中年工人比例较高的社会。Structural Unemployment
::结构性失业Another factor that influences the natural rate of unemployment is the amount of structural unemployment. The structurally unemployed are individuals who have no jobs because they lack skills valued by the labor market, either because demand has shifted away from the skills they do have, or because they never learned any skills. An example of the former would be the unemployment among aerospace engineers after the U.S. space program downsized in the 1970s. An example of the latter would be high school dropouts.
::影响自然失业率的另一个因素是结构性失业的数量。 结构性失业是那些没有工作的个人,因为他们缺乏受到劳动力市场重视的技能,或者因为需求已经偏离了他们拥有的技能,或者因为他们从未学到任何技能。 前者的一个例子就是1970年代美国太空计划缩小规模后航空航天工程师的失业。 后者的一个例子就是高中辍学。Some people worry that technology causes structural unemployment. In the past, new technologies have put lower skilled employees out of work, but at the same time they create demand for higher skilled workers to use the new technologies. Education seems to be the key in minimizing the amount of structural unemployment. Individuals who have degrees can be retrained if they become structurally unemployed. For people with no skills and little education, that option is more limited.
::一些人担心技术会导致结构性失业。 过去,新技术让技术水平较低的雇员失业,但与此同时,新技术又创造了对技术水平较高的工人的需求,让他们使用新技术。 教育似乎是尽量减少结构性失业的关键。 有学位的人如果在结构上失业,可以接受再培训。 对于没有技能和教育的人来说,这种选择更有限。Natural Unemployment and Potential Real GDP
::自然失业和潜在潜在The natural unemployment rate is related to two other important concepts: full employment and potential real GDP. The economy is considered to be at full employment when the actual unemployment rate is equal to the natural unemployment. When the economy is at full employment, real GPD is equal to potential real GDP. By contrast, when the economy is below full employment, the unemployment rate is greater than the natural unemployment rate and real GDP is less than potential. Finally, when the economy above full employment, then the unemployment rate is less than the natural unemployment rate and real GDP is greater than potential. Operating above potential is only possible for a short while, since it is analogous to all workers working overtime.
::自然失业率与另外两个重要概念有关:充分就业和潜在的实际国内生产总值;当实际失业率与自然失业相等时,经济被视为充分就业;当经济达到充分就业时,实际的GPD等于潜在的实际国内生产总值;相反,当经济低于充分就业时,失业率高于自然失业率,实际的国内生产总值低于潜力;最后,当经济超过充分就业时,失业率低于自然失业率,实际的国内生产总值大于潜力;只有短时间才可能超过潜力,因为与所有加班工人相似。Productivity Shifts and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
::生产力转变和自然失业率Unexpected shifts in productivity can have a powerful effect on the natural rate of unemployment. Over time, the level of wages in an economy will be determined by the productivity of workers. After all, if a business paid workers more than could be justified by their productivity, the business will ultimately lose money and go bankrupt. Conversely, if a business tries to pay workers less than their productivity then, in a competitive labor market, other businesses will find it worthwhile to hire away those workers and pay them more.
::生产率的意外变化可能会对自然失业率产生巨大的影响。 随着时间的推移,一个经济体的工资水平将由工人的生产率决定。 毕竟,如果一个企业的付薪工人的生产率超过其生产率的正当性,那么企业最终会失去钱财并破产。 相反,如果一个企业试图支付低于其生产率的工人工资,那么,在竞争性劳动力市场上,其他企业会发现雇用这些工人并支付更多工资是值得的。However, adjustments of wages to productivity levels will not happen quickly or smoothly. Wages are typically reviewed only once or twice a year. In many modern jobs, it is difficult to measure productivity at the individual level. For example, how precisely would one measure the quantity produced by an accountant who is one of many people working in the tax department of a large corporation? Because productivity is difficult to observe, wage increases are often determined based on recent experience with productivity; if productivity has been rising at, say, 2% per year, then wages rise at that level as well. However, when productivity changes unexpectedly, it can affect the natural rate of unemployment for a time.
::然而,将工资调整到生产率水平不会迅速或顺利地发生。工资通常每年只审查一次或两次。在许多现代工作岗位上,很难衡量个人生产率。例如,如何精确地衡量在大公司税务部门工作的众多人员之一的会计师所生产的数量?由于生产率难以观察到,工资增长往往根据最近生产率的经验确定;如果生产率一直以每年2%的速度增长,那么工资水平也会上升。然而,当生产率突如其来地发生变化时,它会影响一段时间的自然失业率。The U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s provides two vivid examples of this process. In the 1970s, productivity growth slowed down unexpectedly. For example, output per hour of U.S. workers in the business sector increased at an annual rate of 3.3% per year from 1960 to 1973, but only 0.8% from 1973 to 1982. 7 (a) illustrates the situation where the demand for labor—that is, the quantity of labor that business is willing to hire at any given wage—has been shifting out a little each year because of rising productivity, from D 0 to D 1 to D 2 . As a result, equilibrium wages have been rising each year from W 0 to W 1 to W 2 . But when productivity unexpectedly slows down, the pattern of wage increases does not adjust right away. Wages keep rising each year from W 2 to W 3 to W 4 . But the demand for labor is no longer shifting up. A gap opens where the quantity of labor supplied at wage level W 4 is greater than the quantity demanded. The natural rate of unemployment rises; indeed, in the aftermath of this unexpectedly low productivity in the 1970s, the national unemployment rate did not fall below 7% from May, 1980 until 1986. Over time, the rise in wages will adjust to match the slower gains in productivity, and the unemployment rate will ease back down, but this process may take years.
::1970年代和1990年代的美国经济为这一进程提供了两个生动的例子。1970年代,生产率增长出人意料地放缓。例如,1960年至1973年,美国商业部门工人每小时的年增长率每年为3.3%,但1973年至1982年只有0.8%。 7 (a) 说明了对劳动力的需求——即企业愿意以任何特定工资雇用的劳动力数量——由于生产率从D0到D1到D2的不断提高而逐年减少。结果,均衡工资每年从W0上升到W1到W2。但是,当生产率意外放缓时,工资增长的格局并没有立即调整。工资每年从W2上升到W3到W4,但是对劳动力的需求并没有继续变化。在工资水平W4提供的劳动力数量超过所需数量的情况下,出现了差距。 失业率自然上升;事实上,在生产率出乎预料的低之后,每年平均工资从W0上升到W1到W2年。 1986年代,国家失业率的上升趋势不会立即下降,但从1980年代的下降幅度将一直到1980年的下降,而工资增长速度将持续到1980年的下降。Unexpected Productivity Changes and Unemployment
::意外的生产力变化和失业(a) Productivity is rising, increasing the demand for labor. Employers and workers become used to the pattern of wage increases. Then productivity suddenly stops increasing. However, the expectations of employers and workers for wage increases do not shift immediately, so wages keep rising as before. But the demand for labor has not increased, so at wage W 4 , unemployment exists where the quantity supplied of labor exceeds the quantity demanded. (b) The rate of productivity increase has been zero for a time, so employers and workers have come to accept the equilibrium wage level (W). Then productivity increases unexpectedly, shifting demand for labor from D 0 to D 1 . At the wage (W), this means that the quantity demanded of labor exceeds the quantity supplied, and with job offers plentiful, the unemployment rate will be low.
:The late 1990s provide an opposite example: instead of the surprise decline in productivity in the 1970s, productivity unexpectedly rose in the mid-1990s. The annual growth rate of real output per hour of labor increased from 1.7% from 1980–1995, to an annual rate of 2.6% from 1995–2001. Let’s simplify the situation a bit, so that the economic lesson of the story is easier to see graphically, and say that productivity had not been increasing at all in earlier years, so the intersection of the labor market was at point E in (b), where the demand curve for labor (D 0 ) intersects the supply curve for labor. As a result, real wages were not increasing. Now, productivity jumps upward, which shifts the demand for labor out to the right, from D 0 to D 1 . At least for a time, however, wages are still being set according to the earlier expectations of no productivity growth, so wages do not rise. The result is that at the prevailing wage level (W), the quantity of labor demanded (Qd) will for a time exceed the quantity of labor supplied (Qs), and unemployment will be very low—actually below the natural level of unemployment for a time. This pattern of unexpectedly high productivity helps to explain why the unemployment rate stayed below 4.5%—quite a low level by historical standards—from 1998 until after the U.S. economy had entered a recession in 2001.
::20世纪90年代后期提供了一个相反的例子:与1970年代生产率突然下降相反,20世纪70年代的生产率突飞猛进,20世纪90年代中期的生产率突飞猛进。 结果,实际工资并没有增长。 如今,生产率的年增长率从1980-1995年的1.7 % 增长到1995-2001年的2.6 % 。 让我们稍微简化一下形势,这样,故事中的经济教训就比较容易图形化地看到,并且说早些年的生产率并没有上升,因此劳动力市场的交叉点是在(b)的E点,即劳动力需求曲线(D0)将劳动力供应曲线(Dur)交叉起来。 结果,实际工资没有增长。 现在,生产率的年增长率从1980-1995年的1.7 % 上升到1995-2001年的2.6 % ,但至少在一段时间里,工资仍然根据早先对不生产率增长的预期来确定,因此工资不会上升。 结果,在(W)当前工资水平,劳动力需求(Qd)的数量将超过劳动力供给量,而失业率将低于劳动力供给水平。 到了2001年的低点,因此,从1998年的失业率将低于历史水平。Average levels of unemployment will tend to be somewhat higher on average when productivity is unexpectedly low, and conversely, will tend to be somewhat lower on average when productivity is unexpectedly high. But over time, wages do eventually adjust to reflect productivity levels.
::当生产率出乎意料地低下时,平均失业率往往会平均略高一些,反之,当生产率出乎意料地高时,平均失业率往往会略低一些。 但随着时间的推移,工资最终会调整以反映生产率水平。Public Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
::公共政策和自然失业率Public policy can also have a powerful effect on the natural rate of unemployment. On the supply side of the labor market, public policies to assist the unemployed can affect how eager people are to find work. For example, if a worker who loses a job is guaranteed a generous package of unemployment insurance, welfare benefits, food stamps, and government medical benefits, then the opportunity cost of being unemployed is lower and that worker will be less eager to seek a new job.
::公共政策也可以对自然失业率产生强大的影响。 在劳动力市场的供给方面,帮助失业者的公共政策可以影响人们寻找工作的热心。 比如,如果失业的工人得到失业保险、福利福利、食品券和政府医疗福利等慷慨的一揽子保障,那么失业的机会成本就会降低,而失业工人将不再急于寻找新的工作。What seems to matter most is not just the amount of these benefits, but how long they last. A society that provides generous help for the unemployed that cuts off after, say, six months, may provide less of an incentive for unemployment than a society that provides less generous help that lasts for several years. Conversely, government assistance for job search or retraining can in some cases encourage people back to work sooner.
::最重要的似乎不仅仅是这些福利的金额,而是它们持续了多久。 一个向失业人员提供慷慨帮助的社会,如果在6个月之后(比如说,6个月之后)停止失业,则可能比一个提供几年来不那么慷慨帮助的社会更不会刺激失业。 相反,政府提供求职或再培训援助在某些情况下可以鼓励人们更快地返回工作岗位。Video: Unemployment Compensation
::视频:失业补偿How Does U.S. Unemployment Insurance Work?
::美国失业保险如何运作?Unemployment insurance is a joint federal-state program, established by federal law in 1935. The federal government sets minimum standards for the program, but most of the administration is done by state governments.
::失业保险是1935年联邦法律规定的联邦-州联合方案,联邦政府为该方案规定了最低标准,但大部分行政工作由州政府负责。The funding for the program is a federal tax collected from employers. The federal government requires that the tax be collected on the first $7,000 in wages paid to each worker; however, states can choose to collect the tax on a higher amount if they wish, and 41 states have set a higher limit. States can choose the length of time that benefits will be paid, although most states limit unemployment benefits to 26 weeks—with extensions possible in times of, especially high unemployment. The fund is then used to pay benefits to those who become unemployed. Average unemployment benefits are equal to about one-third of the wage earned by the person in his or her previous job, but the level of unemployment benefits varies considerably across states.
::联邦政府要求对每个工人头7 000美元的工资征税;但是,如果各州愿意,可以选择按更高的数额征税,41个州规定了更高的限额;各州可以选择支付津贴的时间长短,尽管大多数州将失业津贴限制在26周,在失业、特别是高失业率期间可以延长,但失业津贴数额在各州之间差别很大;然后,基金用来向失业人员支付津贴;平均失业津贴相当于个人在以前工作期间所挣工资的三分之一左右,但失业津贴的数额在各州之间差别很大。Bottom 10 States that pay the Lowest Benefit per Week
::每周支付最低津贴最低的10个最低国家Top 10 States that pay the Highest Benefit per week
::每周支付最高福利金最多的10个国家Georgia
::格鲁吉亚 格鲁吉亚 格鲁吉亚$330
Massachusetts
::马萨诸塞州$653
South Carolina
::南卡罗来纳州$326
Washington
::华盛顿华盛顿$604
Missouri
::密密苏里$320
New Jersey
::新泽新泽西$600
South Dakota
::南达科塔$295
Minnesota
::明尼苏达州$585
Florida
::佛罗里达州$275
Pennsylvania
::宾夕法尼亚州$573
Tennessee
::田田$275
Rhode Island
::罗得岛$566
Alabama
::阿拉巴马$265
Hawaii
::夏威夷夏威夷$560
Louisiana
::路易斯安那州$258
Connecticut
::康涅狄格州$555
Arizona
::亚利桑那州$240
Ohio
::俄亥俄州$524
Mississippi
::密西西比$235
Oregon
::俄勒冈州$507
Average Weekly Unemployment Benefits by State in 2013 (Source: jobsearch.about.com/od/unemployment/a/weekly-unemployment-benefits.htm)
::2013年按国家分列的平均每周失业福利(资料来源:求职.about.com/od/unemploy/a/ week-unen-employ-begys.htm)One other interesting thing to note about the classifications of unemployment—an individual does not have to collect unemployment benefits to be classified as unemployed. While there are statistics kept and studied relating to how many people are collecting unemployment insurance, this is not the source of unemployment rate information.
::关于失业分类问题,还有一件有趣的事情值得注意——一个人不必领取失业救济金才能被归类为失业,虽然有统计数字记载和研究有多少人正在领取失业保险,但这不是失业率的信息来源。On the demand side of the labor market, government rules social institutions, and the presence of unions can affect the willingness of firms to hire. For example, if a government makes it hard for businesses to start up or to expand, by wrapping new businesses in bureaucratic red tape, then businesses will become more discouraged about hiring. Government regulations can make it harder to start a business by requiring that a new business obtain many permits and pay many fees, or by restricting the types and quality of products that can be sold. Other government regulations, like zoning laws, may limit where business can be done, or whether businesses are allowed to be open during evenings or on Sunday.
::在劳动力市场的需求方面,政府监管社会机构和工会的存在会影响企业的雇用意愿。 比如,如果政府通过官僚官僚式的繁琐手续包扎新企业,使得企业难以启动或扩张,那么企业就会对雇用更加气馁。 政府监管可以要求新企业获得许多许可并支付许多费用,或者限制可出售产品的类型和质量,从而使得创业更加困难。 其他政府监管,如区划法,可能会限制企业创业,或者允许企业在晚上或星期天开业。Whatever defenses may be offered for such laws in terms of social value—like the value some Christians place on not working on Sunday—these kinds of restrictions impose a barrier between some willing workers and other willing employers, and thus contribute to a higher natural rate of unemployment. Similarly, if the government makes it difficult to fire or lay off workers, businesses may react by trying not to hire more workers than strictly necessary—since laying these workers off would be costly and difficult. High minimum wages may discourage businesses from hiring low-skill workers. Government rules may encourage and support powerful unions, which can then push up wages for union workers, but at a cost of discouraging businesses from hiring those workers.
::无论从社会价值方面为这些法律提供何种辩护(比如一些基督徒认为星期天不工作的价值观),这些类型的限制在一些愿意工作的工人和其他愿意工作的雇主之间设置障碍,从而导致较高的自然失业率。 同样,如果政府让解雇工人变得困难,企业可能会做出反应,不雇用超过严格需要的工人 — — 因为解雇这些工人成本高昂而且困难。 高最低工资可能阻止企业雇用低技能工人。 政府规则可能鼓励和支持强大的工会,这些工会可以提高工会工人的工资,但代价是阻止企业雇用这些工人。The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Recent Years
::近些年来的自然失业率The underlying economic, social, and political factors that determine the natural rate of unemployment can change over time, which means that the natural rate of unemployment can change over time, too.
::确定自然失业率的基本经济、社会和政治因素可能随时间而变化,这意味着自然失业率也可能随时间而变化。Estimates by economists of the natural rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy in the early 2000s run at about 4.5 to 5.5%. This is a lower estimate than earlier. Three of the common reasons proposed by economists for this change are outlined below.
::经济学家对美国经济在2000年代初期的自然失业率估计约为4.5至5.5 % , 这是比以前低的估计数。 经济学家为这一变化提出的三个共同原因概述如下。1) The Internet has provided a remarkable new tool through which job seekers can find out about jobs at different companies and can make contact with relative ease. An Internet search is far easier than trying to find a list of local employers and then hunting up phone numbers for all of their human resources departments, requesting a list of jobs and application forms, and so on. Social networking sites such as LinkedIn have changed how people find work as well.
::1) 互联网提供了一个引人注目的新工具,求职者可以通过这个工具找到不同公司的工作,并能够相对容易地进行联系。 互联网搜索比寻找本地雇主名单,然后为其人力资源部门寻找电话号码、要求一份就业和申请表清单等都容易得多。 LinkedIn等社交网站也改变了人们如何找到工作的方式。2) The growth of the temporary worker industry has probably helped to reduce the natural rate of unemployment. In the early 1980s, only about 0.5% of all workers held jobs through temp agencies; by the early 2000s, the figure had risen above 2%. Temp agencies can provide jobs for workers while they are looking for permanent work. They can also serve as a clearinghouse, helping workers find out about jobs with certain employers and getting a tryout with the employer. For many workers, a temp job is a stepping-stone to a permanent job that they might not have heard about or gotten any other way, so the growth of temp jobs will also tend to reduce frictional unemployment.
::2)临时工行业的增长或许有助于降低自然失业率。 1980年代初期,只有大约0.5%的工人通过临时工机构从事工作;到了2000年代初,这一数字已经上升到2%以上。 临时工机构可以在工人寻找长期工作时为他们提供工作。 他们也可以充当信息交换所,帮助工人找到某些雇主的工作,并在雇主那里进行选拔。 对于许多工人来说,临时工是他们可能没有听说过或得到任何其他方式的永久性工作的基础,因此临时工的增长也会减少摩擦性失业。3) The aging of the “baby boom generation”—the especially large generation of Americans born between 1946 and 1963—meant that the proportion of young workers in the economy was relatively high in the 1970s, as the boomers entered the labor market, but is relatively low today. As noted earlier, middle-aged workers are far more likely to keep steady jobs than younger workers, a factor that tends to reduce the natural rate of unemployment.
::3) " 婴儿繁荣一代 " (1946年至1963年出生的美国人人数特别多的一代)的老化意味着1970年代经济中的青年工人比例相对较高,因为潮人进入劳动市场,但今天相对较低。 如前所述,中年工人比年轻工人更有可能保持稳定的工作,这一因素往往会降低自然失业率。The combined result of these factors is that the natural rate of unemployment was on average lower in the 1990s and the early 2000s than in the 1980s. The Great Recession of 2008–2009 pushed monthly unemployment rates above 10% in late 2009. But even at that time, the Congressional Budget Office was forecasting that by 2015, unemployment rates would fall back to about 5%.
::这些因素的综合结果是,1990年代和2000年代初的自然失业率平均低于1980年代。 2008—2009年的大衰退使得2009年底的月失业率超过10 % 。 但即使到了那时,国会预算办公室也预测到2015年失业率将回落到大约5 % 。The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Europe
::欧洲的自然失业率By the standards of other high-income economies, the natural rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy appears relatively low. Through good economic years and bad, many European economies have had unemployment rates hovering near 10%, or even higher, since the 1970s. European rates of unemployment have been higher not because recessions in Europe have been deeper, but rather because the conditions underlying supply and demand for labor have been different in Europe, in a way that has created a much higher natural rate of unemployment.
::以其他高收入经济体的标准来看,美国经济的自然失业率似乎相对较低。 在良好的经济年代和糟糕的年代中,许多欧洲经济体的失业率自1970年代以来一直徘徊在10%左右,甚至更高。 欧洲的失业率一直较高,不是因为欧洲的衰退更深,而是因为欧洲的劳动力供求条件不同,这造成了更高的自然失业率。Many European countries have a combination of generous welfare and unemployment benefits, together with nests of rules that impose additional costs on businesses when they hire. In addition, many countries have laws that require firms to give workers months of notice before laying them off and to provide substantial severance or retraining packages after laying them off. The legally required notice before laying off a worker can be more than three months in Spain, Germany, Denmark, and Belgium, and the legally required severance package can be as high as a year’s salary or more in Austria, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece. Such laws will surely discourage laying off or firing current workers. But when companies know that it will be difficult to fire or lay off workers, they also become hesitant about hiring in the first place.
::许多欧洲国家都拥有慷慨的福利和失业福利,以及给企业在雇用时增加成本的规则。 此外,许多国家都有法律要求企业在解雇工人前提前几个月通知工人,并在解雇工人后提供大量的解职或再培训一揽子计划。 在西班牙、德国、丹麦和比利时,裁员前法定通知可能超过三个月,而在奥地利、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和希腊,法定离职一揽子计划可能高达一年或一年以上的工资。 这些法律肯定会阻止裁员或解雇现任工人。 但当公司知道解雇工人将很难时,它们也开始对雇用持犹豫态度。The typically higher levels of unemployment in many European countries in recent years, which have prevailed even when economies are growing at a solid pace, are attributable to the fact that the sorts of laws and regulations that lead to a high natural rate of unemployment are much more prevalent in Europe than in the United States.
::近年来,许多欧洲国家的失业率普遍较高,即使经济正在稳步增长,但失业率也普遍较高,这是因为导致自然失业率高的法律和条例在欧洲比在美国更为普遍。A Preview of Policies to Fight Unemployment
::失业政策预览The remedy for unemployment will depend on the diagnosis. Cyclical unemployment is a short-term problem, caused because the economy is in a recession. Thus, the preferred solution will be to avoid or minimize recessions. This policy can be enacted by stimulating the overall buying power in the economy so that firms perceive that sales and profits are possible, which makes them eager to hire.
::失业的补救措施将取决于诊断结果。 周期性失业是一个短期问题,其原因是经济处于衰退之中。 因此,首选解决方案将是避免或尽量减少衰退。 这一政策可以通过刺激经济的总体购买力来实施,让企业意识到销售和利润是可能的,这使他们急于雇用。Dealing with the natural rate of unemployment is trickier. There is not much to be done about the fact that in a market-oriented economy, firms will hire and fire workers. Nor is there much to be done about how the evolving age structure of the economy, or unexpected shifts in productivity, will affect the natural rate of unemployment for a time. However, as the example of high ongoing unemployment rates for many European countries illustrates, government policy clearly can affect the natural rate of unemployment that will persist even when GDP is growing.
::处理自然失业率是比较棘手的。 在市场经济中,企业会雇用和解雇工人,在这一点上,没有多少工作要做。 经济年龄结构的演变或生产力的意外变化将如何在一段时间内影响自然失业率。 然而,正如许多欧洲国家持续高失业率的例子所表明的那样,政府政策显然会影响即便在国内生产总值增长的情况下也会持续存在的自然失业率。When a government enacts policies that will affect workers or employers, it must examine how these policies will affect the information and incentives employees and employers have to seek each other out. For example, the government may have a role to play in helping some of the unemployed with job searches. The design of government programs that offer assistance to unemployed workers and protections to employed workers may need to be rethought so that they will not unduly discourage the supply of labor. Similarly, rules that make it difficult for businesses to begin or to expand may need to be redesigned so that they will not unduly discourage the demand for labor. The message is not that all laws affecting labor markets should be repealed, but only that when such laws are enacted, a society that cares about unemployment will need to consider the tradeoffs involved.
::当政府颁布影响到工人或雇主的政策时,它必须审查这些政策将如何影响信息和激励雇员和雇主必须相互寻找。例如,政府在帮助某些失业者寻找工作方面可能发挥作用。可能需要重新考虑向失业工人提供援助和保护就业工人的政府方案的设计,这样它们就不会不适当地阻碍劳动力的供应。同样,使企业难以开始或扩大的规则可能需要重新设计,这样它们就不会不适当地抑制对劳动力的需求。 信息并不是所有影响劳动力市场的法律都应该废除,而只是当这些法律颁布时,关心失业的社会才需要考虑所涉及的权衡问题。The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment that would be caused by the economic, social, and political forces in the economy even when the economy is not in a recession. These factors include the frictional unemployment that occurs when people are put out of work for a time by the shifts of a dynamic and changing economy and any laws concerning conditions of hiring and firing have the undesired side effect of discouraging job formation. They also include structural unemployment, which occurs when demand shifts permanently away from a certain type of job skill.
::自然失业率是经济中经济、社会和政治力量(即使经济没有衰退)造成的失业率,其中包括由于经济动态变化而暂时失业的摩擦性失业,以及任何关于雇用和解雇条件的法律都具有阻碍就业形成的不良副作用,还包括结构性失业,这种失业是在需求永久脱离某种工作技能时发生的。Video: GDP, Unemployment, Inflation
::视频:国内生产总值、失业、通货膨胀Answer the self check questions below to monitor your understanding of the concepts in this section.
::回答下面的自我核对问题,以监测你对本节概念的理解。Self Check Questions
::自查问题1. Define the term "unemployment."
::1. 界定 " 失业 " 一词的定义。2. What is meant by the term "unemployment rate."
::2. “失业率”一词的含义是什么?3. Go online and research the current unemployment rate for the U.S. for the last 6 months, the last year, two years ago, and 5 years ago. Did the rate go up or down compared to today's current unemployment rate?
::3. 上网研究美国过去6个月、最后6年、两年前和5年前目前的失业率,与今天目前的失业率相比,失业率是否上升或下降?4. Why is the unemployment rate not comprehensive? Give 2 examples.
::4. 为什么失业率不全面?请举两个例子。5. List and explain the 5 types of unemployment.
::5. 列出并解释5种失业类型。6. Explain the concept of full employment.
::6. 解释充分就业的概念。7. Use the internet to research which year the U.S. had full employment. When did it occur? Why did it occur?
::7. 利用互联网研究哪一年美国充分就业,何时发生的?为什么会发生?8. Why is consistent low unemployment difficult to maintain?
::8. 为什么一直以来的低失业率难以维持? -
Frictional, structural, cyclical, seasonal, and technological are the different types of unemployment.
