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  • General

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  • 国内生产总值和人口

    GDP & Population
    ::国内生产总值和人口

    In addition to measuring the nation's output, the macroeconomic topic of economic performance also examines inflation, changes in population, the standard of living, factors that influence growth such as labor and capital, and business cycles. The evaluation of economic performance shows that when productivity falters the economy suffers and when productivity grows the economy benefits. Therefore, without productivity, the economic growth of a nation is difficult to achieve, and we may not realize that changes need to be made unless the economic performance of the country is measured.
    ::除了衡量国家产出之外,经济表现的宏观经济主题还审视了通货膨胀、人口变化、生活水平、影响增长的因素(如劳动力和资本)以及商业周期。 对经济业绩的评估表明,当生产力疲软时,当生产力增长时,经济效益就会下降。 因此,没有生产力,一个国家的经济增长就难以实现,我们也许不会意识到,除非对国家的经济表现进行衡量,否则就必须进行变革。

    Universal Generalizations
    ::普遍化

    • Projected population trends can help determine the direction of economic development.
      ::预计的人口趋势有助于确定经济发展的方向。
    • Labor is closely tied to population and location of industrial centers.
      ::劳工与人口和工业中心的地点密切相关。
    • Changes in population can distort GDP and GNP.
      ::人口变化可能扭曲国内生产总值和国民生产总值。
    • Population growth can affect the quality of life of a country.
      ::人口增长可能影响一个国家的生活质量。

    Guiding Questions
    ::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问

    1. What are the three most important factors that determine future population growth?
      ::决定未来人口增长的三个最重要的因素是什么?
    2. How has the projection of race and ethnicity changed over the last fifty years?
      ::过去五十年中,种族和族裔预测如何变化?
    3. What is the projected situation regarding age in the U.S. for the next twenty years?
      ::未来二十年美国年龄预测情况如何?
    4. How do demographics affect economic growth?
      ::人口因素如何影响经济增长?

    Video: India's Booming Population
    ::影片:印度的兴起人口

    Population Growth and Economic Growth
    ::人口增长与经济增长

    The rate at which population grows influences the economy, especially GDP and economic growth. As the economy grows, the factors of production (land, labor, capital, entrepreneur) must also grow or become more productive to provide for consumers. Of the factors, the most important at this point is labor. The labor market can influence economic growth. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations can be distorted, this is why economists look at per capita, or per person, output. If per capita income grows, the economy is considered to be in a cycle of growth. The opposite is equally true, if the per capita income declines, then the economy may be in a cycle of recession. Economists consider population numbers when determining if a country's economy is moving into a higher standard of living. Generally countries with fewer people tend to live better, or at a higher standard than if the country is overpopulated.
    ::随着经济的增长,生产要素(土地、劳动力、资本、企业家)也必须增长或变得更有成效,以养活消费者。 在这些因素中,最重要的因素是劳动力。劳动力市场可以影响经济增长。 国内生产总值(GDP)的计算可以被扭曲,这就是经济学家观察人均或人均产出的原因。 如果人均收入增长,经济则被视为处于增长周期。 相反,如果人均收入下降,那么经济可能处于衰退周期。经济学家们在确定一国经济是否进入更高生活水平时会考虑人口数量。 一般而言,人口较少的国家往往比人口过多的国家生活更好,或者标准更高。

    There are about 300 million people in the United States, up from 76 million in 1900. So how do we know how many people live in the United States? In 1902 the Census Bureau was set up to calculate where the U.S. population was living and how the Congress would need to be "re-apportioned" based on where people were living or moving to. Today the U.S. Census Bureau works year-round to conduct surveys related to the size and characteristics of the current population.

    ::美国大约有3亿人口,比1900年的7600万人有所增加。我们怎么知道有多少人生活在美国?1902年成立了人口普查局,以计算美国人口住在哪里,以及国会需要怎样根据人们生活或移居到哪里来进行“重新估价 ” 。 今天,美国人口普查局全年工作,就目前人口的规模和特点进行调查。

                                         Figure 1: U.S. Resident Population

    ::图1:美国居民人口

    During the last century, the U.S. population has become primarily an urban population, growing from 40% to 80% urban. The population is primarily white, with 12%–13% African American and 4% classified as other. These proportions are relatively stable over the century, with the white population falling from 89% to 83%. The census is thought to understate minority populations because of greater difficulties in contacting minorities. The census does not attempt to classify people but instead accepts people’s descriptions of their own race.
    ::上个世纪,美国人口主要成为城市人口,从40%增长到80 % 。 人口主要为白人,其中非裔美国人占12.13%,其他人口占4 % 。 这些比例在上个世纪相对稳定,白人人口从89 % 下降到83 % 。 人口普查被认为低估了少数民族人口,因为与少数民族联系的困难更大。 人口普查并不试图对人口进行分类,而是接受人们自己种族的描述。

    Historically, the U.S. population has grown significantly since colonial times. However, there have been periods of steady decline:  the Civil War, the Great Depression and prior to World War II. There was a population "boom" from 1945-1967 followed by another period of population decline. The trend reflects that  people  in the U.S. are having smaller families. Why now? The country's population has moved from rural areas or living in the country-side where large families were needed to work the land, to urban areas where the cost of living was more expensive. In addition, improvements in healthcare and life expectancy have made it possible for children to survive and the population to live longer. Another factor to consider is the widespread use of birth control, as well as the increased cost of raising a child.
    ::历史上,美国人口自殖民时代以来大幅增长。然而,在内战、大萧条和二战之前,美国人口一直在稳步下降。 1945-1967年间,美国人口“暴涨 ” , 其后又出现了另一时期的人口下降。 这一趋势表明美国人口的家庭规模较小。 为什么现在? 这个国家的人口已经从农村地区迁移,或生活在需要大家庭来耕种土地的乡村地区,到生活费用较高的城市地区。 此外,保健和预期寿命的改善使得儿童能够生存,人口可以活得更长。 另一个值得考虑的因素是广泛使用节育手段,以及抚养孩子的成本增加。

                                         Figure 2: Urban and White Populations

    ::图2:城市和白人人口

    The U.S. population has been aging significantly with the proportion of seniors (over 65 years of age) tripling over the past century, and the proportion of young people dropping by over one-third. Indeed, the proportion of children between 0 and 5 years old has dropped from 12.1% of the population to under 7%.

    ::上个世纪,美国人口显著老龄化,老年人(65岁以上)比例上升了三倍,年轻人比例下降了三分之一以上。 事实上,0至5岁的儿童比例从占总人口的12.1%下降到了7%以下。

                                        Figure 3: Population by Age
    ::图3:按年龄分列的人口

    Population trends are important because they help to determine possible population shifts in age, or where people may be moving, as well as whether or not a community may need additional services such as education, crime prevention, or housing. In addition, businesses examine population shifts to make decisions about where to build new factories, add stores, or hire more employees.

    ::人口趋势之所以重要,是因为它们有助于确定年龄可能发生的人口变化,或人们可能移徙的地点,以及社区是否需要教育、预防犯罪或住房等额外服务;此外,企业审查人口变化,决定在哪里建造新工厂、增加商店或雇用更多雇员。

    The baby boom—a dramatic increase in births for the years 1946–1964—is visible in Figure 3 "Population proportions by age group" as the population in the 0–24 age group begins increasing in 1950, peaking in 1970, and then declining significantly as the baby boom moves into the 25- to 44-year-old bracket. There is a slight “echo” of the baby boom, most readily seen by looking at the 0–5 age bracket, as in Figure 4 "Proportion of population under age 5".

    ::婴儿潮 — — 1946-1964年婴儿出生人数急剧增加 — — 可见于图3“按年龄组分列的人口比例 ” 中,因为0-24岁年龄组的人口在1950年开始增加,1970年达到高峰,然后随着婴儿潮进入25-44岁年龄段而大幅下降。 婴儿潮有一个轻微的“echo ” , 最容易从0-5岁年龄段看出,如图4“5岁以下人口比例 ” 。

                                       Figure 4: Population Under Age 5

    ::图4:5岁以下人口

    The aging of the American population is a consequence of greater life expectancy. When social security was created in 1935, the average American male lived to be slightly less than 60 years old. The social security benefits didn’t start until age 65, thus they were not being paid to a substantial portion of the population.
    ::美国人口的老龄化是预期寿命延长的结果。 1935年建立社会保障时,美国男性平均寿命略低于60岁。 社会保障福利直到65岁才开始发放,因此没有向大部分人口发放。

    Video: Life Expectancy Shocker for High School Dropouts
    ::视频:高中辍学者对预期寿命的冲击

                                          Figure 5: US Life Expectancy at Birth

    ::图5:美国出生时预期寿命

    shows life expectancy at birth, so it also includes infant mortality. The significant drop in life expectancy in 1918—to nearly 30 years old for nonwhites—is primarily a consequence of the great influenza, which killed about 2.5% of the people who contracted it.  This flu killed more Americans in 1918 than World War I. The Great Depression (1929–1939) also reduced life expectancy. The steady increase in life expectancy is also visible with white females now living 80 years on average.

    ::在1918年,非白人的预期寿命大幅下降 — — 到近30岁 — — 主要是因为大流感导致约2.5 % 的感染者死亡。 1918年,这一流感比第一次世界大战造成更多美国人死亡。 大萧条(1929-1939年)也降低了预期寿命。 预期寿命的稳步增长也明显可见,白人女性的平均寿命为80岁。

    The three main factors that demographers (people who study population growth and its characteristics) are:   fertility rates, life expectancy, and net immigration levels. Fertility rates are the number of live births per 1,000 women of child-bearing years, are expected to have over their lifetime. In 2014, the fertility rate for women in the U.S. was 2, putting this country at 114 th out of 228 nations. The country with the highest fertility rate was Niger at 7, while the lowest was Singapore at 0.8.
    ::人口统计学家(研究人口增长及其特点的人)的三个主要因素是:生育率、预期寿命和净移民水平;生育率是每1 000名育龄妇女中每1 000名活产的生育率,预计在其一生中会达到。2014年,美国妇女的生育率为2,使这个国家在228个民族中占第114位,生育率最高的国家是尼日尔,为7,最低的国家是新加坡,为0.8。

    To see a world-wide break-down of fertility rates by country/years go to .
    ::全世界按国家/年分列的生育率都出现崩溃。

    Life expectancy is the average lifespan of people in a given area, country, or nation. Depending on how well the people live in a country can influence their life expectancy. Proper nutrition, health care, clean water to drink, sanitation, exercise, accidents, epidemics, plagues, wars, and childbirth, can affect a country's life expectancy rate.  The current life expectancy rate for the U.S. is 79 years old, placing the U.S. at 53 out of 228 nations. The country with the highest life expectancy rate is Monaco at 89.57 years, while the country with the lowest life expectancy is Chad at 49.44 years old. 
    ::预期寿命是特定地区、国家或国家人口的平均寿命,取决于一国人民的生活状况如何影响其寿命,适当的营养、保健、饮用水、卫生、锻炼、事故、流行病、瘟疫、战争和分娩都可能影响一个国家的预期寿命,美国目前的预期寿命为79岁,在228个国家中,美国为53岁,预期寿命最高的国家是摩纳哥,为89.57岁,预期寿命最低的国家是乍得,为49.44岁。

    To see the list of the nations ranked based on life expectancy go to 
    ::可以看到,根据预期寿命排列的国名名单改为:

                         Figure 6: U.S. Immigrant Population (Percentages) by Continent of Origin
    ::图6:按原籍大陆分列的美国移民人口(百分比)

    Another way that population can be analyzed is immigration. Net immigration is the net change of the population caused by people moving into a country and out of a country.  
    ::另一种可以分析人口的方式是移民,净移民是人们迁入和迁出一个国家所造成的人口净变化。

    It is said that the United States is a country of immigrants, and a large fraction of the population had ancestors who came from elsewhere. Immigration into this United States, however, has been increasing after a long decline, and the fraction of the population that was born in foreign countries is about 11%—one in nine. 
    ::据说,美国是一个移民国家,很大一部分人口祖先来自别处。 然而,移民在美国长期下降之后一直在增加,在外国出生的人口比例大约是百分之十一九分之一。

    To see the most current listing of global net migration rates visit  .

    ::访问全球移民净率的最新清单。

                                     Figure 7: National Origin of Immigrants, 1900–2000

    ::图7 图7:1900-2000年全国移民原籍

    The majority of immigrants during this century came from Europe, but immigration from Europe has been declining for most of the century while immigration from Asia and Latin America has grown substantially. aggregates the total country-of-origin data over the century to identify the major sources of immigrants.
    ::本世纪大多数移民来自欧洲,但欧洲移民在整个世纪的大部分时间里一直在下降,而来自亚洲和拉丁美洲的移民数量大幅增长。 综合了本世纪的原籍国总数据,以确定移民的主要来源。 

    retrieved from http://www.immigrationeis.org/eis-documents/us-demographic-history

                Another topic the Census Bureau examines is the population by age and gender.

    ::人口普查局审查的另一个主题是按年龄和性别划分的人口。 

    retrieved from https://www.premedhq.com/gender

    The "baby boom" was an unusually high birthrate that began  after World War II and lasted from 1945 until 1967. The population pyramid shows a slight bulge (ages 48-70) and as the population ages, this group will be pushed upwards. Notice that based on the population pyramid that there was a decline in births from 1975-1990, and then another slight increase in birth rates beginning from 1995-2000.
    ::“婴儿潮”是第二次世界大战后开始的异常高的出生率,从1945年一直持续到1967年。 人口金字塔显示出轻微的膨胀(48-70岁 ) , 随着人口年龄的增长,这一群体将会上升。 根据人口金字塔,从1975-1990年出生率下降,然后从1995-2000年开始出生率又略有上升。

    The increase in the number of "baby boomers" will have an economic impact when the majority of them reach retirement. This will alter the number of people who will no longer be working but will be collecting Social Security, pensions, and Medicare. The fact that a larger number of people will be retired will create an unusually heavy burden on the younger, smaller workforce. The significant number of people getting these "transfer payments" will change the dependency ratio, or the ratio based on the number of children and elderly for every 100 persons in the working age bracket (ages 18-64).
    ::增加“婴儿潮”人数将在大多数婴儿退休时产生经济影响,这将改变不再工作但正在领取社会保障、养老金和医疗保险的人数,更多的人退休将给较年轻、较小劳动力造成异常沉重的负担,大量领取这种“转移付款”的人将改变受抚养人比率,或根据工作年龄(18-64岁)每100人中儿童和老年人人数确定的比率。

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau

    ::据美国人口普查局统计

    "...the dependency ratio, or the number of people 65 and older to every 100 people of traditional working ages, is projected to climb rapidly from 22 in 2010 to 35 in 2030. This time period coincides with the time when baby boomers are moving into the 65 and older age category. After 2030, however, the ratio of the aging population to the working-age population (ages 20 to 64) will rise more slowly, to 37 in 2050. The higher this old-age dependency ratio, the greater the potential burden."
    ::“......受抚养人比率,即65岁及65岁以上人口与100名传统工作年龄人口的比例,预计将从2010年的22人迅速攀升到2030年的35人。这一时期恰好与婴儿潮人进入65岁及65岁以上年龄组的时间相吻合。然而,2030年后,老龄化人口与工作年龄人口(20至64岁)的比例将更缓慢地上升,到2050年将上升至37人。老年受抚养人比率越高,潜在负担就越大。”

    (retrieved from

    :sad从

    Besides the size of the population, the U.S. pyramid also shows the number of men and women by population. The size of the male population is slightly smaller as it ages. Women tend to live longer than men in the U.S. The average life expectancy for men is 76, for women it is 81. Life expectancy is an important indicator of how well people in a country live. The average for the United States is 79 years old. The country with the shortest life expectancy is Botswana at 47 years old, while the countries with the longest life expectancy are found in both Japan and Iceland at 83 years old, based on 2010-2014 statistics.
    ::除人口规模外,美国金字塔还按人口显示男女人数,男性人口随着年龄的增长而略小一些,美国女性的寿命往往比男子长。根据2010-2014年的统计数据,平均预期寿命是男性76岁,女性81岁,是衡量一个国家人口生活状况的重要指标。平均预期寿命是79岁,预期寿命最短的国家是博茨瓦纳47岁,而预期寿命最长的国家在日本和冰岛都是83岁。

    (retrieved from )
    :sad检索自 )

    The Census Bureau has projected that in the category of race and ethnicity there will be a change over time. Up until recently, whites were the largest group, however, since 1990, there has been a shift toward a larger percentage of the population being of Hispanic origin. Differences in fertility rates and immigration will continue to change the trend in the makeup of the U.S. population.
    ::人口普查局预测,在种族和族裔类别中,随着时间的推移会有变化,但直到最近,白人是1990年以来最大的群体,但自1990年以来,西班牙裔人口比例有所上升,生育率和移民差异将继续改变美国人口构成的趋势。

    Both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the United States Census Bureau are the best sources of additional information regarding U.S. statistics. For additional information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics visit their .

    ::劳工统计局和美国人口普查局都是有关美国统计的更多信息的最佳来源。

    The United States Census Bureau has a wealth of information related to economic growth, population, age, and immigration. Visit their web page at .
    ::美国人口普查局拥有与经济增长、人口、年龄和移民有关的丰富信息。

    Answer the self check questions below to monitor your understanding of concepts in this section.
    ::回答下面的自我核对问题,以监测你对本节概念的理解。

    Self Check Questions
    ::自查问题

    1. How can population growth influence GDP?
    ::1. 人口增长如何影响国内生产总值?

    2. What is the U.S. Census? What is its purpose?
    ::2. 美国人口普查是什么?其目的是什么?

    3. Define "urban population".
    ::3. 定义“城市人口”。

    4. Define "rural population".
    ::4. 界定“农村人口”的定义。

    5. Go online and look up the historic population growth of the United States since 1860. What has accounted for population growth? Where do most people live in the U.S. today? What possible reasons would account for these population numbers?

    ::5. 上网查看美国自1860年以来的历史性人口增长情况:人口增长的原因何在?今天美国大多数人住在哪里?这些人口数量的原因何在?

    6. What is the role of a demographer?
    ::6. 人口学家的作用是什么?

    7. Define "fertility rate".
    ::7. 界定“生育率”。

    8. Go online and find out about fertility rates. Which countries have the "highest" rates? Which ones have the "lowest" rates? How can fertility rates impact standard of living in a country? What do countries with high fertility rates have in common? What do countries with low fertility rates have in common? How does the U.S. rank in comparison to other nations?
    ::8. 上网了解生育率。哪个国家的生育率是“最高”率?哪个国家是“最低”率?哪个国家是“最低”率?生育率如何影响一个国家的生活水平?高生育率国家有什么共同点?低生育率国家有什么共同点?低生育率国家有什么共同点?美国与其他国家相比排名如何?

    9. Define "life expectancy".
    ::9. 界定“预期寿命”的定义。

    10. Go online and find out about life expectancy. Which countries have the "highest" life expectancy? Which ones have the "lowest" life expectancy? How can life expectancies impact standard of living in a country? What do countries with high life expectancy have in common? What do countries with low life expectancy have in common? How does the U.S. rank in comparison to other nations?
    ::10. 上网了解预期寿命:哪些国家的预期寿命是“最高”的?哪些国家的预期寿命是“最低”的?哪些国家的预期寿命是“最低”的?预期寿命如何影响一个国家的生活水平?预期寿命高的国家有什么共同点?预期寿命低的国家有什么共同点?与其他国家相比,美国排名如何?

    11. Define "net immigration".
    ::11. 定义“净移民”的定义。

    12. Go online and find out about the current U.S. net immigration rate. How has it changed over the last 100 years? Where have immigrants migrated from in the early 1900s compared to other years, such as 1910, 1930, 1960, 1980, 2000, and 2010?
    ::12. 上网了解美国目前的净移民比率,过去100年来有何变化?与1910年、1930年、1960年、1980年、2000年和2010年等其他年份相比,从1900年代初期移民移民到哪里去了?

    13. Besides taking a census every 10 years, what other statistics does the U.S. Census Bureau research? Go online and make a list of other statistics that the U.S. Census Bureau collects.
    ::13. 除了每10年进行一次人口普查之外,美国人口普查局还研究哪些其他统计数据? 上网,编出美国人口普查局收集的其他统计数据清单。

    14. What is the U.S. Census Bureau projecting for the United States regarding race and ethnic populations over the next decade? What about by the year 2050?
    ::14. 美国人口普查局对美国未来十年的种族和族裔人口有何预测?到2050年呢?