Section outline

  • General

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  • 发展框架

    A Framework for Development
    ::发展框架

    What are the keys to economic development? Clearly, each nation’s experience is unique; we cannot isolate the sources of development success in a  laboratory. We can, however, identify some factors that appear to have played an important role in successful economic development. We will look separately at policies that relate to the domestic economy and at policies in international trade.
    ::经济发展的关键是什么? 显然,每个国家的经验都是独一无二的;我们不能在实验室中孤立发展成功的来源。 但是,我们可以找出一些似乎在成功的经济发展中发挥了重要作用的因素。 我们将分别研究与国内经济有关的政策和国际贸易政策。

    Universal Generalizations
    ::普遍化

    • Economists believe that there are several ways for a country to achieve economic growth.
      ::经济学家认为,一个国家有几种实现经济增长的途径。
    • There is not a particular path to take for a country to achieve economic growth or become a developed nation.
      ::一个国家实现经济增长或成为发达国家,没有一条特殊的道路可走。

    Guiding Questions
    ::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问

    1. What is the nature of economic development?
      ::经济发展的性质是什么?
    2. What are the stages of economic development?
      ::经济发展的阶段是什么?
    3. How can industrialized nations help developing countries?
      ::工业化国家如何能够帮助发展中国家?
    4. What has the World Bank recommended for developing countries?
      ::世界银行向发展中国家提出了哪些建议?

     

    Domestic Policy and Economic Development
    ::国内政策和经济发展

    Wh ich  domestic policies contribute to development? Looking at successful economies, those that have achieved high and sustained increases in per capita output, we can see some clear tendencies. They include a market economy, a high saving rate, and investment in infrastructure and in human capital.
    ::哪些国内政策有助于发展?看看成功的经济体,那些在人均产出方面实现了高水平和持续增长的经济体,我们可以看到一些明显的趋势。 它们包括市场经济、高储蓄率、基础设施和人力资本投资。

    Market Economies and Development
    ::市场经济和发展

    There can be no clearer lesson than that a market-oriented economy is a necessary condition for economic development. We saw in the chapter that introduced the production possibilities model that economic systems can be categorized as market capitalist, command socialist, or as mixed economic systems. There are no examples of development success among command socialist systems, although some people still believe that the former Soviet Union experienced some development advances in its early years.
    ::最清楚的教训莫过于市场经济是经济发展的必要条件。 我们在引入生产可能性模式的一章中看到,经济体系可以被归类为市场资本主义、社会主义统治或混合经济体系。 在社会主义统治体系中,没有成功发展的例子,尽管有些人仍然认为前苏联在最初几年取得了一些发展进步。

    One of the most dramatic examples is provided by China. Its shift in the late 1970s to a more market-based economy has ushered in a period of phenomenal growth. China, which has shifted from a command socialist to what could most nearly be categorized as a mixed economy, has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world for the past 20 years. Its growth has catapulted China from being one of the world’s poorest countries a few decades ago to being a middle-income country today.
    ::最引人注目的例子之一是中国。 20世纪70年代末,中国向市场型经济的转变带来了一个惊人的增长时期。 中国已经从社会主义统治转向最接近混合经济,过去20年来一直是世界增长最快的经济体之一。 中国的增长使中国从几十年前的世界最贫穷国家之一发展到今天的中等收入国家。

    The experience of other economies reinforces the general observation that markets matter. South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Chile—all have achieved gigantic gains with a market-based approach to economic growth.
    ::其他经济体的经验强化了市场的重要性这一总的看法。 南朝鲜、香港、台湾、新加坡和智利 — — 它们都以基于市场的方式实现经济增长,从而取得了巨大的收益。

    Video: Singapore's Economic Success
    ::录像:新加坡的经济成功

    We should not conclude, however, that growth has been independent of any public sector activity. China, for example, remains a nominally socialist state; its government continues to play a major role. The governments of South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore all targeted specific sectors for growth and provided government help to those sectors. Even Hong Kong, which became part of China in 1997, has a high degree of government involvement in the provision of housing, healthcare, and education. A market economy is not a non-government economy, but those countries that have left the task of resource allocation primarily to the market have achieved dramatic gains. Hong Kong and Singapore, in fact, are now included in the World Bank’s list of high-income economies.
    ::然而,我们不应该认为增长独立于任何公共部门活动之外。 比如,中国仍然是名义上的社会主义国家,其政府继续扮演着主要角色。 韩国、台湾和新加坡政府都把特定部门作为增长目标,并为这些部门提供政府帮助。 即使是1997年成为中国一部分的香港,政府也在很大程度上参与了住房、医疗和教育的提供。 市场经济不是非政府经济,但那些将资源分配任务主要留给市场的国家已经取得了巨大收益。 事实上,香港和新加坡现在也被列入世界银行的高收入经济体名单。

    The Rule of Law and Development
    ::法治与发展

    If a market is to thrive, individuals must be secure in their property. If crime or government corruption makes it likely that individuals will regularly be subjected to a loss of property, then exchange will be difficult and little investment will occur. Also, the rule of law is necessary for contracts; that is, the rule of law is necessary to provide an institutional framework in  which an economy can operate.
    ::如果一个市场要兴旺起来,个人的财产必须安全,如果犯罪或政府腐败使个人经常遭受财产损失,那么交换就会困难,投资就会很少,而且合同需要法治,也就是说,法治是提供经济运作体制框架的必要条件。

    We will see in the chapter on socialist economies in transition, for example, that Russia’s effort to achieve economic development through the adoption of a market economy has been hampered by widespread lawlessness. An important difficulty of economies with extensive regulation is that the power they grant to government officials inevitably results in widespread corruption that saps entrepreneurial effort and economic growth.
    ::比如,我们在关于转型期社会主义经济体的一章中将看到,俄罗斯通过市场经济实现经济发展的努力因普遍的无政府状态而受到阻碍。 实行广泛监管的经济体所面临的一个重大困难是,他们赋予政府官员的权力不可避免地导致广泛的腐败,从而削弱了企业家的努力和经济增长。

    Investment and Saving
    ::投资与储蓄

    Saving is a key to growth and the achievement of high incomes. All other things considered equal, higher saving allows more resources to be devoted to increases in physical and human capital and to technological improvement. In other words, saving, which is income not spent on consumption, promotes economic growth by making available resources that can be channeled into growth-enhancing uses.
    ::储蓄是增长和高收入实现的关键。 所有其他东西都被视为平等,更高的储蓄让更多的资源用于增加物质和人力资本以及技术进步。 换句话说,储蓄 — — 即收入不是消费支出 — — 通过提供可用于促进增长的资源促进经济增长。

    High saving rates generally accompany high levels of investment. The productivity of this investment, however, can be quite variable. Government efforts to invest in human capital by promoting education, for example, may or may not be successful in actually achieving education. Development projects sponsored by international relief agencies may or may not foster development.
    ::高储蓄率通常伴随着高投资水平,但这种投资的生产率可能相当可变。 例如,政府通过促进教育对人力资本进行投资的努力在实际实现教育方面可能成功,也可能不成功。 国际救济机构赞助的发展项目可能促进发展,也可能不成功。

    However, investment in infrastructure, such as transportation and communication, clearly plays an important role in economic development. Investment in improved infrastructure facilitates the exchange of goods and services and thus fosters development.
    ::然而,对运输和通讯等基础设施的投资显然在经济发展中发挥着重要作用,对改善的基础设施的投资有利于货物和服务的交换,从而促进发展。

    International Economic Issues in Development
    ::发展中的国际经济问题

    In 1974, the poorest nations among the developing nations introduced into the United Nations a Declaration on the Establishment of a New International Economic Order. The program called upon the rich nations to help them reduce the growing gap in real per capita income levels between the developed and developing nations. The declaration has come to be known as the New International Economic Order or NIEO for short.
    ::1974年,发展中国家中最贫穷的国家在联合国《建立新的国际经济秩序宣言》中提出了《建立新的国际经济秩序宣言》,呼吁富国帮助它们缩小发达国家与发展中国家之间在实际人均收入水平上日益扩大的差距。

    NIEO called for different and special treatment of the developing nations in the international arena in areas such as trade policy and control over multinational corporations. NIEO reflected a widely held view of international relations known as dependency theory.
    ::NIEO呼吁在国际舞台上,在贸易政策和对多国公司的控制等领域给予发展中国家以不同和特殊的待遇,NIEO反映了人们广泛持有的国际关系观点,即依赖理论。

    Dependency Theory and Trade Policy
    ::依赖理论和贸易政策

    Conventional economic theory concerning international trade is based on the idea of comparative advantage. As we have seen in other chapters, the principle of comparative advantage suggests that free trade between two countries will benefit both and, in general, the freer the trade, the better. But some economists have proposed a doctrine that challenges this idea. Dependency theory concludes that poverty in developing nations is the result of their dependence on high-income nations.
    ::有关国际贸易的常规经济理论是基于比较优势的理念。 正如我们在其他章节中所看到的那样,比较优势原则表明,两国间自由贸易将同时受益,而且总体而言,贸易更加自由。 但一些经济学家提出了挑战这一理念的理论。 依赖理论得出结论,发展中国家的贫困是其依赖高收入国家的结果。

    Dependency theory holds that the industrialized nations control the destiny of the developing nations, particularly in terms of being the ultimate markets for their exports, serving as the source of capital required for development, and controlling the relative prices and exchange rates at which market transactions occur. In addition, export industries in a developing nation are assumed to have small multiplier effects throughout the rest of the economy, severely limiting any positive role than an expanded export sector might play. Specifically, limited transportation, a poorly developed financial sector, and an uneducated workforce stand in the way of “multiplying” any positive effects of export expansion. A poor country thus may not experience the kind of development and growth enjoyed by the rich country pursuing free trade. Also, increased trade makes the poor country more dependent on the rich country and its export service firms. In short, the benefits of trade between a rich country and a poor country will go almost entirely to the rich country.
    ::依赖理论认为,工业化国家控制着发展中国家的命运,特别是作为其出口的最终市场,作为发展所需的资本来源,控制市场交易的相对价格和汇率;此外,发展中国家的出口工业被认为在整个经济的其余部分具有小的倍增效应,严重限制了扩大出口部门可能发挥的积极作用;具体地说,运输有限、金融部门不发达、劳动力队伍未受过教育,阻碍了出口扩张的任何积极效果的“倍增”;因此,穷国可能没有享受到追求自由贸易的富国享有的发展和增长;此外,贸易的增加使穷国更加依赖富国及其出口服务公司;简言之,富国与穷国之间的贸易利益几乎完全流向富国。

    The development strategy that this line of argument suggests is that developing countries would need to become independent of the already developed nations in order to achieve economic development. In relative terms, free trade would leave the poor country poorer and the rich country richer. Some dependency theorists even argue that trade is likely to make poor countries poorer in absolute terms.
    ::这一论点所显示的发展战略是,发展中国家需要独立于已经发达国家,以实现经济发展。 相对而言,自由贸易将使穷国更加贫穷,富国更加富足。 一些依赖理论家甚至认为贸易有可能使穷国在绝对值上更加贫穷。

    Tanzania’s president, Julius Nyerere, speaking before the United Nations in 1975, put it bluntly, “I am poor because you are rich.”
    ::坦桑尼亚总统尼雷尔(Julius Nyerere)1975年在联合国讲话时直言不讳地说 : “ 我贫穷,因为你富有。 ”

    Import Substitution Strategies and Export-Led Development
    ::进口替代战略和出口主导发展

    If free trade widens the gap between rich and poor nations and makes poor nations poorer, it follows that a poor country should avoid free trade. Many developing countries, particularly in Latin America, attempted to overcome the implications of dependency theory by adopting a strategy of import substitution, a strategy of blocking most imports and substituting domestic production of those goods.
    ::如果自由贸易扩大了富国和穷国之间的差距,使穷国更加贫穷,那么穷国就应该避免自由贸易。 许多发展中国家,特别是拉丁美洲的发展中国家试图通过采用进口替代战略来克服依赖理论的影响,这一战略是阻止大部分进口和替代这些货物的国内生产。

    The import substitution strategy calls for rapidly increasing industrialization by mimicking the already industrialized nations. The intent is to reduce the dependence of the developing country on imports of consumer and capital goods from the industrialized countries by manufacturing these goods at home. But in order to protect these relatively high-cost industries at home, the developing country must establish very high protective tariffs. Moreover, the types of industries that produce the previously imported consumer goods and capital goods are unlikely to increase the demand for unskilled labor. Yet unskilled labor is the most abundant resource in poor countries. Adopting the import substitution strategy raises the demand for expensive capital, managerial talent, and skilled labor—resources in short supply.
    ::进口替代战略要求通过模仿已经工业化国家而迅速增加工业化,目的是减少发展中国家对从工业化国家进口消费品和资本货物的依赖,办法是在国内制造这些商品。但是,为了在国内保护这些相对高成本的工业,发展中国家必须制定非常高的保护性关税。此外,生产以前进口的消费品和资本货物的工业种类不可能增加对非熟练劳动力的需求。然而,非熟练劳动力是穷国最丰富的资源。采用进口替代战略,增加了对昂贵资本、管理人才和短缺的熟练劳动力的需求。

    High tariffs insulate domestic firms from competition, but that tends to increase their monopoly power. Recognizing that some imported goods, particularly spare parts for industrial equipment, will be needed, countries can establish complex permit systems through which firms can import vital parts and other equipment. But that leaves a company’s fortunes in the hands of the government bureaucrats issuing the permits. A highly corrupt system quickly evolves in which a few firms bribe their way to easy access to foreign markets, reducing competition still further. Instead of the jobs expected to result from import substitution, countries implementing the import substitution strategy get the high prices, reduced production, and poor quality that come from reduced competition.
    ::高关税将国内企业排除在竞争之外,但往往会增加它们的垄断力量。 认识到某些进口商品,特别是工业设备零部件将是必要的,各国可以建立复杂的许可证制度,让企业进口重要零部件和其他设备。 但这让公司财富掌握在发放许可证的政府官僚手中。 高度腐败的体系迅速演变,少数公司通过行贿很容易进入外国市场,从而进一步降低竞争。 实施进口替代战略的国家不会因为进口替代而获得预期的工作,而是因为竞争减少而获得高价格、低产量和低质量。

    No country that has relied on a general strategy of import substitution has been successful in its development efforts. It is an idea whose time has not come. In contrast, more successful economies in Asia and elsewhere have kept their economies fairly open to both imports and exports. They have shown the greatest ability to move the development process along.
    ::没有一个依赖进口替代总战略的国家在其发展努力中取得成功,这是一个时机尚未到来的想法,相比之下,亚洲和其他地方较成功的经济体对进口和出口都保持了相当开放的经济,它们表现出了推动发展进程的最大能力。

    Development and International Financial Markets
    ::国际金融市场和发展

    Successful development in the developing nations requires more than just redirecting labor and capital resources into newly emerging sectors of the economy. That could be accomplished by both domestic firms and international firms located within the economy. To complement the reorientation of traditional production processes, economic infrastructures such as roads, schools, communication facilities, ports, warehouses, and many other prerequisites to growth must be put into place. Paying for the projects requires a high level of saving.
    ::发展中国家的成功发展不仅需要将劳动力和资本资源转向新兴经济部门,而且需要更多资金。 这一点可以由国内公司和经济内部的国际公司来完成。 为了补充传统生产流程的调整,必须建立经济基础设施,如道路、学校、通信设施、港口、仓库和许多其他增长先决条件。 支付项目需要高水平储蓄。

    The sources of saving are private saving, government saving, and foreign saving. Grants in the form of foreign aid from the developed nations supplement these sources, but they form a relatively small part of the total.
    ::储蓄来源是私人储蓄、政府储蓄和外国储蓄。 发达国家以外援形式提供的赠款补充了这些来源,但它们在总额中只占相对小的一部分。

    Private domestic saving is an important source of funds.  However, even high rates of private saving cannot guarantee sufficient funds in a poor economy where the bulk of the population lives close to the subsistence level. Government saving in the form of tax revenues in excess of government expenditures is almost universally negative. If the required investments are to take place, the developing nations have to borrow the money from foreign savers.
    ::私人国内储蓄是一个重要的资金来源,但是,即使私人储蓄率很高,也无法保证在大部分人口接近维持生计水平的贫穷经济体中有足够的资金。 政府以税收收入方式储蓄,超过政府支出,几乎是普遍负数。 如果需要投资,发展中国家就必须向外国储蓄者借钱。

    The problem for developing nations borrowing funds from foreigners is the same potential difficulty any borrower faces: the debt can be difficult to repay. Unlike, say, the national debt of the United States government, whose obligations are in its own currency, developing nations typically commit to make loan payments in the currency of the lending institution. Money borrowed by Brazil from a U.S. bank, for example, must generally be paid back in U.S. dollars.
    ::发展中国家从外国人那里借款的问题与任何借款人所面临的潜在困难相同:债务可能难以偿还。 与美国政府的国债不同,后者的债务以自己的货币支付,发展中国家通常承诺用贷款机构的货币支付贷款。 比如,巴西从美国银行借款的钱通常必须用美元偿还。

    Many developing nations borrowed heavily during the 1970s, only to find themselves in trouble in the 1980s. Countries such as Brazil suspended payments on their debt when required payments exceeded net exports. Much foreign debt was simply written off as bad debt by lending institutions. While foreign debts created a major crisis in the 1980s, subsequent growth appeared to make these payments more manageable.
    ::20世纪70年代,许多发展中国家大量借债,只是为了在1980年代陷入麻烦。 巴西等国家暂停偿还债务,因为要求的偿还额超过净出口额。 许多外债被贷款机构简单地作为坏债务注销。 虽然外债在1980年代造成了一场重大危机,但随后的增长似乎让这些付款更容易管理。

    A somewhat different international financial crisis emerged in the late 1990s. It started in Thailand in the summer of 1997. Thailand had experienced 20 years of impressive economic growth and rising living standards. One element of its development strategy was to maintain a fixed exchange rate between its currency, the baht, and the dollar. The slowing of Japanese growth, which reduced demand for Thai exports, and weaknesses in the Thai banking sector were putting downward pressure on the baht, which Thailand’s central bank initially tried to counteract. As discussed there, this effort was abandoned, and the value of the currency declined.
    ::20年来,泰国经历了令人印象深刻的经济增长和生活水平不断提高的20年。 其发展战略的一个要素是保持其货币、铢和美元之间的固定汇率。 日本增长放缓,降低了对泰国出口的需求,泰国银行业的弱点正在对泰国中央银行最初试图抵消的铢造成下调压力。 讨论时已经讨论过,这一努力已被放弃,货币价值下降。

    In an effort to keep its exchange rate somewhat stable, t he Thai government appealed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for support. The IMF is an international agency that makes financial assistance available to member countries experiencing problems in their international balance of payments in order to support adjustment and reform in those countries. In an agreement between Thailand and the IMF, Thailand’s central bank tightened monetary policy, thereby raising interest rates there. The logic behind this move was that higher interest rates in Thailand would make the baht more attractive to both Thai and foreign financial investors, who could thus earn more on Thai bonds and on other Thai financial assets. This would increase the demand for baht and help to keep the currency from falling further. Thailand also agreed to tighten fiscal policy, the rationale for which was to prepare for the anticipated future costs of restructuring its banking system. As we have learned throughout macroeconomics, however, contractionary monetary and fiscal policies will reduce real GDP in the short run. The hope was that growth would resume once the immediate currency crisis was over and plans had been put into place for correcting other imbalances in the Thai economy.
    ::为了使其汇率保持某种程度的稳定,泰国政府呼吁国际货币基金组织(IMF)提供支持。IMF是一个国际机构,向在国际国际收支方面遇到困难的成员国提供财政援助,以支持这些国家的调整和改革。 在泰国和IMF之间的一项协议中,泰国中央银行收紧了货币政策,从而提高了利率。 这一举动背后的逻辑是,泰国的利率提高将使铢对泰国和外国金融投资者都更具吸引力,从而通过泰国债券和其他泰国金融资产赚取更多的收益。 这将增加对铢的需求,并有助于使货币不再进一步下跌。 泰国还同意收紧财政政策,其理由就是准备其银行系统重组的预期未来成本。 但是,正如我们在宏观经济中了解到的那样,紧缩的货币和财政政策在短期内会降低实际GDP。 希望一旦眼前的货币危机结束,并且已经制定计划来纠正泰国经济的其他不平衡,增长将会恢复。

    Other countries, such as South Korea and Brazil, soon experienced similar currency disturbances and entered into similar IMF programs to put their domestic houses in order in exchange for financial assistance from the IMF. For some of the other countries that went through similar experiences, notably Indonesia and Malaysia, the situation in 1999 was very unstable. Malaysia decided to forgo IMF assistance and to impose massive currency controls. In Indonesia, the financial crisis and the ensuing economic crisis led to political unrest. It held its first free elections in June 1999, but violence erupted in late 1999, when the overwhelming majority of people in East Timor voted against an Indonesian proposal that the province have limited autonomy within Indonesia and voted for independence from Indonesia.
    ::其他国家,如南韩和巴西,很快也经历了类似的货币动荡,并加入了类似的货币基金组织方案,以国内住房为交换货币基金组织的财政援助。对于一些经历类似经历的其他国家,特别是印度尼西亚和马来西亚,1999年的情况非常不稳定。马来西亚决定放弃货币基金组织的援助并实行大规模货币管制。在印度尼西亚,金融危机和随后的经济危机导致了政治动乱。它于1999年6月举行了第一次自由选举,但1999年底爆发了暴力,当时绝大多数东帝汶人民投票反对印度尼西亚的提议,即该省在印度尼西亚境内限制自治并投票支持从印度尼西亚独立。

    Remarkably, in the early 2000s, the economies of most of these countries rebounded, although they are now caught up in the global economic downturn.
    ::值得注意的是,在2000年代初期,这些国家大多数的经济都出现反弹,尽管它们现在陷入了全球经济下滑的泥潭。

    Development Successes
    ::发展成功成功

    As we have seen throughout this chapter, the greatest success stories are found among the newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. These economies, including Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, share two common traits. First, they have allowed their economies to develop through an emphasis on export-based, market capitalist strategies. The NIEs achieved higher per capita income and output by entering and competing in the global market for products such as computers, automobiles, plastics, chemicals, steel, shipbuilding, and sporting goods. These countries have succeeded largely by linking standardized production technologies with low-cost labor.
    ::正如我们在整个本章中所看到的那样,东亚新兴工业化经济体(NIEs)取得了最大的成功,这些经济体,包括香港、韩国、新加坡和台湾,具有两个共同特点。 首先,它们通过强调以出口为基础的市场资本主义战略,使经济得以发展。 NIE通过进入和在全球市场竞争计算机、汽车、塑料、化学品、钢铁、造船和体育产品等产品,实现了更高的人均收入和产出。 这些国家在很大程度上成功地将标准化生产技术与低成本劳动力联系起来。

    Second, the role of government was relatively limited in the NIEs, which made less use of regulation and bureaucratic controls. Governments were clearly involved in some strategic industries, and, in the wake of recent financial crises, in some cases it appears that this involvement led to some decisions in those industries being made on political rather than on economic grounds. The principal contribution of governments in the Far Eastern NIEs has been to create a modern infrastructure (especially up-to-date communications facilities essential for the development of a strong financial sector), to provide a stable incentive system (including stable exchange rates), and to ensure that government bureaucracy will help rather than hinder exports (especially by not regulating export trade, labor markets, and capital markets).Bela Balassa, “The Lessons of East Asian Development,” Economic Development and Cultural Change 36, no. 3 (April 1988): S247–S290.
    ::其次,政府在新兴工业化经济体中的作用相对有限,因为新兴工业化经济体较少使用监管和官僚控制。 政府显然参与某些战略产业,而且在最近的金融危机之后,在某些情况下,这种参与似乎导致这些产业的某些决策是基于政治而不是经济原因。 远东新兴工业化经济体政府的主要贡献是创建现代基础设施(特别是对于发展强大金融部门至关重要的最新通信设施 ) , 提供稳定的激励制度(包括稳定的汇率 ) , 并确保政府官僚机构帮助而不是阻碍出口(特别是通过不监管出口贸易、劳动力市场和资本市场 ) 。 贝拉·巴拉萨, “ 东亚发展的经验教训 ” , 《经济发展和文化变革》,第36期,第3期(1988年4月 ) : S247-S290。

    Chile adopted sweeping market reforms in the late 1970s, creating the  most free  economy in Latin America. Chile’s growth has accelerated sharply, and the country has moved to the upper-middle-income group of nations. Perhaps more dramatic, the dictator who instituted market reforms, General Augusto Pinochet, agreed to democratic elections that removed him from power in 1989. Chile now has a greatly increased degree of political as well as economic freedom—and has emerged as the most prosperous country in Latin America.
    ::智利在20世纪70年代后期采取了彻底的市场改革,创造了拉丁美洲最自由的经济。 智利的经济增长急剧加速,国家已进入中上收入国家行列。 也许更引人注目的是,实行市场改革的独裁者奥古斯托·皮诺切特将军(Augusto Pinochet)在1989年同意举行民主选举,从而将他从权力中解脱出来。 智利现在的政治和经济自由程度大大提高了 — — 并已成为拉丁美洲最繁荣的国家。

    Over the last decade, Mexico also shifted from a strategy of import substitution and began to follow more free-trade-oriented policies. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) turned all of North America into a free trade zone. This could not have occurred had Mexico not undergone such a dramatic shift in its development strategy. Mexico’s commitment to the new strategy was tested in 1994 when the country underwent a currency crisis similar to that experienced in many Asian countries in 1997 and 1998. At that time, Mexico, too, entered into an agreement with the IMF to address economic imbalances in return for financial assistance. The U.S. government also provided support to help Mexico at that time. By 1996, the Mexican economy was growing again, and Mexican commitment to more open policies has endured. Only with the passage of time will we know for sure whether the changed strategy worked in Mexico as well, but the early signs are that it is working.
    ::过去十年来,墨西哥也从进口替代战略转向了进口替代战略,并开始采取更加面向自由贸易的政策。 北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)将北美各地变为自由贸易区。 如果墨西哥的发展战略没有发生如此巨大的转变的话,这不可能发生。 墨西哥对新战略的承诺在1994年经受了考验,当时墨西哥经历了类似于1997年和1998年许多亚洲国家所经历的货币危机。 当时,墨西哥也与IMF达成了一项解决经济失衡的协议,以换取财政援助。 美国政府当时也为帮助墨西哥提供了支持。 到1996年,墨西哥经济再次增长,墨西哥对更开放政策的承诺也得以持续。 只有随着时间的推移,我们才能确定改变的战略是否在墨西哥奏效,但早期的迹象是它正在起作用。

    Although the trend in developing countries toward market reforms has been less heralded than the collapse of communism, it is surely significant. Will market reforms translate into development success? The jury is still out. Market reform requires that many wealthy—and powerful—interests be swept aside. Whether that can be achieved, and whether poor people who lack human capital can be included in the development effort, remain open questions. Some dramatic success stories have shown that economic development can be achieved. The fate of billions of desperately poor people rests in the ability of their countries to match that success.
    ::虽然发展中国家向市场改革的趋势不如共产主义崩溃预示的那样好,但它确实意义重大。 市场改革能否转化为发展成功? 陪审团仍然没有结果。 市场改革要求将许多富人和强人的利益抛诸脑后。 能否实现这一点,以及缺乏人力资本的穷人能否被纳入发展努力,仍然是尚未解决的问题。 一些显著的成功事例表明,经济发展是可以实现的。 数十亿赤贫人口的命运取决于他们国家是否有能力与成功相匹配。

    Components of Economic Growth
    ::经济增长的组成部分

    Over decades and generations, seemingly small differences of a few percentage points in the annual rate of economic growth make an enormous difference in GDP per capita. In this module, we discuss some of the components of economic growth, including physical capital, human capital, and technology.
    ::数十年和几代人,经济年增长率似乎只有几个百分点的微小差异,对人均GDP产生了巨大差异。 在本模块中,我们讨论了经济增长的一些组成部分,包括有形资本、人力资本和技术。

    The category of physical capital includes the plant and equipment used by firms and also things like roads (also called infrastructure). Again, greater physical capital implies more output. Physical capital can affect productivity in two ways: (1) an increase in the quantity of physical capital (for example, more computers of the same quality); and (2) an increase in the quality of physical capital (same number of computers but the computers are faster, and so on). Human capital and physical capital accumulation are similar: In both cases, investment now pays off in longer-term productivity in the future.
    ::有形资本类别包括公司使用的厂房和设备以及诸如道路(也称为基础设施)之类的东西,而更多的有形资本意味着更多的产出,有形资本可以以两种方式影响生产力sad1) 增加有形资本的数量(例如,增加质量相同的计算机);(2) 提高有形资本的质量(计算机数目相同,但计算机速度更快,等等),人力资本和有形资本的积累是相似的:在这两种情况下,投资现在对未来的长期生产力都有回报。

    The category of technology is the “joker in the deck.” Earlier we described it as the combination of invention and innovation. When most people think of new technology, the invention of new products like the laser, the smartphone, or some new wonder drug come to mind. In food production, the development of more drought-resistant seeds is another example of technology. Technology, as economists use the term, however, includes still more. It includes new ways of organizing work, like the invention of the assembly line, new methods for ensuring better quality of output in factories, and innovative institutions that facilitate the process of converting inputs into output. In short, technology comprises all the advances that make the existing machines and other inputs produce more, and at higher quality, as well as altogether new products.
    ::技术的类别是“甲板中的小丑 ” 。 早些时候,我们把它描述为发明和创新的组合。 当大多数人想到新技术时,发明了激光、智能手机或一些新奇特药物等新产品。 在食品生产中,开发抗旱性更强的种子是另一个技术例子。 但是,正如经济学家使用这个术语时,技术包括更多。 它包括组织工作的新方法,如制造装配线、确保工厂产出质量提高的新方法以及推动将投入转化为产出的创新机构。 简言之,技术包括使现有机器和其他投入生产更多、更高质量的产品以及全新产品的所有进步。

    It may not make sense to compare the GDPs of China and say, Benin, simply because of the great difference in population size. To understand economic growth, which is really concerned with the growth in living standards of an average person, it is often useful to focus on GDP per capita. Using GDP per capita also makes it easier to compare countries with smaller numbers of people, like Belgium, Uruguay, or Zimbabwe, with countries that have larger populations, like the United States, the Russian Federation, or Nigeria.
    ::仅仅因为人口规模的巨大差异,将中国的GDP和贝宁等中国的GDP进行比较也许毫无意义。 要理解经济增长 — — 这真正关系到普通人的生活水平增长 — — 通常就应该关注人均GDP。 使用人均GDP也更容易将比利时、乌拉圭或津巴布韦等人口较少的国家与美国、俄罗斯联邦或尼日利亚等人口较多的国家进行比较。

    To obtain a per capita production function, divide each input in (a) by the population. This creates a second aggregate production function where the output is GDP per capita (that is, GDP divided by population). The inputs are the average level of human capital per person, the average level of physical capital per person, and the level of technology per person (b). The result of having population in the denominator is mathematically appealing. Increases in population lower per capita income. However, increasing population is important for the average person only if the rate of income growth exceeds population growth. A more important reason for constructing a per capita production function is to understand the contribution of human and physical capital.
    ::为了获得人均生产功能,将(a)中的每项投入按人口分列,从而产生第二个总生产功能,即产出为人均国内生产总值(即国内生产总值除以人口);投入为人均人力资本平均水平、人均物质资本平均水平和人均技术水平(b) 将人口纳入分母的结果在数学上具有吸引力; 人口人均收入增加; 然而,只有在收入增长率超过人口增长率的情况下,人口增长才对普通人很重要; 构建人均生产功能的一个重要原因是了解人力和物质资本的贡献。

    Capital Deepening
    ::资本深化

    When society increases the level of capital per person, the result is called capital deepening. The idea of capital deepening can apply both to additional human capital per worker and to additional physical capital per worker.
    ::当社会提高人均资本水平时,其结果被称为资本深化,资本深化的想法既适用于每个工人的额外人力资本,也适用于每个工人的额外实物资本。

    Recall that one way to measure human capital is to look at the average levels of education in an economy. illustrates the human capital deepening for U.S. workers by showing that the proportion of the U.S. population with a high school and a college degree is rising. As recently as 1970, for example, only about half of U.S. adults had at least a high school diploma; by the start of the twenty-first century, more than 80% of adults had graduated from high school. The idea of human capital deepening also applies to the years of experience that workers have, but the average experience level of U.S. workers has not changed much in recent decades. Thus, the key dimension for deepening human capital in the U.S. economy focuses more on additional education and training than on a higher average level of work experience.
    ::回顾衡量人力资本的一个方法就是看一看一个经济体的平均教育程度。 通过表明拥有高中和大学学位的美国人口比例正在上升,说明美国工人的人力资本在不断深化。例如,最近到1970年,只有大约一半的美国成年人至少拥有高中文凭;到21世纪初,超过80%的成年人已经从高中毕业。 人力资本深化的想法也适用于工人的多年经验,但近几十年来,美国工人的平均经验水平没有多大变化。 因此,深化美国经济人力资本的关键方面更多地侧重于增加教育和培训,而不是提高平均工作经验水平。

                                 Human Capital Deepening in the U.S.
    ::美国的人力资本日益深化

      

    Rising levels of education for persons 25 and older show the deepening of human capital in the U.S. economy. Even today, relatively few U.S. adults have completed a four-year college degree. There is clearly room for additional deepening of human capital to occur. (Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics)

    Physical capital deepening in the U.S. economy is shown in . The average U.S. worker in the late 2000s was working with physical capital worth almost three times as much as that of the average worker of the early 1950s.
    ::20世纪20年代末,美国平均工人的实物资本价值几乎是1950年代初平均工人的三倍。

                          Physical Capital per Worker in the United States
    ::美国每个工人的实物资本

      

    The value of the physical capital, measured by plant and equipment, used by the average worker in the U.S. economy has risen over the decades. The increase may have leveled off a bit in the 1970s and 1980s, which were not, coincidentally, times of slower-than-usual growth in worker productivity. We see a renewed increase in physical capital per worker in the late 1990s, followed by a flattening in the early 2000s. (Source: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania)

    Not only does the current U.S. economy have better-educated workers with more and improved physical capital than it did several decades ago, but also these workers have access to more advanced technologies. Growth in technology is impossible to measure with a simple line on a graph, but evidence that we live in an age of technological marvels is all around us—discoveries in genetics and in the structure of particles, the wireless Internet, and other inventions almost too numerous to count. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office typically has issued more than 150,000 patents annually in recent years.
    ::美国目前的经济不仅比几十年前拥有更多、更好的物质资本的工人受过更好的教育,而且这些工人也有机会获得更先进的技术。 技术的增长无法用图表上的简单线测量,而且我们生活在技术奇迹时代的证据遍布我们周围 — — 遗传学和粒子结构、无线互联网和其他发明的发现几乎太多,无法计算。 近年来,美国专利和商标办公室每年通常颁发超过15万个专利。

    This recipe for economic growth—investing in labor productivity, with investments in human capital and technology, as well as increasing physical capital—also applies to other economies. In South Korea, for example, universal enrollment in primary school (the equivalent of kindergarten through sixth grade in the United States) had already been achieved by 1965, when Korea’s GDP per capita was still near its rock bottom low. By the late 1980s, Korea had achieved almost universal secondary school education (the equivalent of a high school education in the United States). With regard to physical capital, Korea’s rates of investment had been about 15% of GDP at the start of the 1960s, but doubled to 30–35% of GDP by the late 1960s and early 1970s. With regard to technology, South Korean students went to universities and colleges around the world to get scientific and technical training, and South Korean firms reached out to study and form partnerships with firms that could offer them technological insights. These factors combined to foster South Korea’s high rate of economic growth.
    ::实现经济增长的秘诀 — — 投资于劳动生产率,投资于人力资本和技术,以及增加物质资本 — — 也适用于其他经济体。 比如,在韩国,小学(相当于幼儿园到美国六年级)的普及入学率已经到1965年实现,当时韩国人均GDP仍然接近其最底层的低点。 到1980年代末,韩国几乎实现了普及中等教育(相当于美国高中教育 ) 。 在物质资本方面,韩国的投资率在1960年代初约为GDP的15 % , 到1960年代末和1970年代初翻了一番,达到GDP的30-35 % 。 在技术方面,韩国学生前往世界各地的大学和学院接受科技培训,韩国公司与能够提供技术洞察力的公司进行了接触并建立了伙伴关系。 这些因素加在一起,促进了韩国经济高速增长。

    Growth Accounting Studies
    ::增长会计研究

    Since the late 1950s, economists have conducted growth accounting studies to determine the extent to which physical and human capital deepening and technology have contributed to growth. The usual approach uses an aggregate production function to estimate how much of per capita economic growth can be attributed to growth in physical capital and human capital. These two inputs can be measured, at least roughly. The part of growth that is unexplained by measured inputs, called the residual, is then attributed to growth in technology. The exact numerical estimates differ from study to study and from country to country, depending on how researchers measured these three main factors over what time horizons. For studies of the U.S. economy, three lessons commonly emerge from growth accounting studies.
    ::自1950年代后期以来,经济学家进行了增长会计研究,以确定有形和人力资本的深化和技术对增长的贡献程度。通常的做法是使用综合生产功能来估计人均经济增长有多少可归因于有形资本和人力资本的增长。这两种投入至少可以大致衡量。用计量投入(称为剩余投入)来解释的部分增长可归因于技术的增长。确切的数字估计数字因研究而异,也因国家而异,取决于研究人员如何测量这三个主要因素的时间范围。对于美国经济的研究来说,从增长会计研究中通常可以得出三个教训。

    First, technology is typically the most important contributor to U.S. economic growth. Growth in human capital and physical capital often explains only half or less than half of the economic growth that occurs. New ways of doing things are tremendously important.
    ::首先,技术通常是美国经济增长的最重要贡献者。 人力资本和有形资本的增长往往只解释了经济增长的一半或不到一半。 新的行动方式非常重要。

    Second, while investment in physical capital is essential to growth in labor productivity and GDP per capita, building human capital is at least as important. Economic growth is not just a matter of more machines and buildings. One vivid example of the power of human capital and technological knowledge occurred in Europe in the years after World War II (1939–1945). During the war, a large share of Europe’s physical capital, such as factories, roads, and vehicles, was destroyed. Europe also lost an overwhelming amount of human capital in the form of millions of men, women, and children who died during the war. However, the powerful combination of skilled workers and technological knowledge, working within a market-oriented economic framework, rebuilt Europe’s productive capacity to an even higher level within less than two decades.
    ::其次,尽管对有形资本的投资对于劳动生产率和人均GDP的增长至关重要,但建设人力资本至少同样重要。 经济增长不仅仅是更多机器和建筑的问题。 人力资本和技术知识的力量生动的例子在二战(1939-1945年)之后的几年里就出现在欧洲。 战争期间,欧洲很大一部分有形资本,如工厂、道路和车辆,被摧毁。 欧洲还损失了以数以百万计的男性、女性和儿童为形式的大量人力资本,他们在战争中丧生。 然而,熟练工人和技术知识的强大组合 — — 在面向市场的经济框架内工作 — — 在不到20年的时间里将欧洲的生产能力重建到更高的水平。

    A third lesson is that these three factors of human capital, physical capital, and technology work together. Workers with a higher level of education and skills are often better at coming up with new technological innovations. These technological innovations are often ideas that cannot increase production until they become a part of new investment in physical capital. New machines that embody technological innovations often require additional training, which builds worker skills further. If the recipe for economic growth is to succeed, an economy needs all the ingredients of the aggregate production function. See the following Clear It Up feature for an example of how human capital, physical capital, and technology can combine to significantly impact lives.
    ::第三个教训是,人力资本、物质资本和技术这三个因素是相辅相成的。具有更高水平教育和技能的工人往往更擅长掌握新的技术创新。这些技术创新往往是无法增加生产直到成为对有形资本的新投资的一部分的理念。体现技术创新的新机器往往需要额外的培训,从而进一步培养工人的技能。如果经济增长的配方要取得成功,那么经济就需要综合生产功能的所有要素。请参见下文“明确它”的特征,例如人力资本、物质资本和技术可以如何结合起来对生活产生重大影响。

    Video: Celebrating International Day of the Girl 
    ::录像:庆祝国际女孩日

     

    How Do Girls' Education and Economic Growth Relate in Low-Income Countries?
    ::低收入国家的女童教育和经济增长如何相适应?

    In the early 2000s, according to the World Bank, about 110 million children between the ages of 6 and 11 were not in school—and about two-thirds of them were girls. In Bangladesh, for example, the illiteracy rate for those aged 15 to 24 was 78% for females, compared to 75% for males. In Egypt, for this age group, illiteracy was 84% for females and 91% for males. Cambodia had 86% illiteracy for females and 88% for males. Nigeria had 66% illiteracy for females in the 15 to 24 age bracket and 78% for males.
    ::根据世界银行的资料,2000年代初期,约有1.1亿6至11岁的儿童失学,其中约三分之二是女童,例如,在孟加拉国,15至24岁的文盲率女性为78%,男性为75%;在埃及,这一年龄组的女性文盲率为84%,男性为91%;柬埔寨女性文盲率为86%,男性为88%;尼日利亚15至24岁年龄段的女性文盲率为66%,男性为78%。

    Whenever any child does not receive a basic education, it is both a human and an economic loss. In low-income countries, wages typically increase by an average of 10 to 20% with each additional year of education. There is, however, some intriguing evidence that helping girls in low-income countries to close the education gap with boys may be especially important, because of the social role that many of the girls will play as mothers and homemakers.
    ::在低收入国家,每增加一年教育,工资通常平均增加10-20%;然而,一些有趣的证据表明,帮助低收入国家的女孩缩小与男孩的教育差距可能特别重要,因为许多女孩作为母亲和家庭主妇将发挥社会作用。

    Girls in low-income countries who receive more education tend to grow up to have fewer, healthier, better-educated children. Their children are more likely to be better nourished and to receive basic health care such as  immunizations. Economic research on women in low-income economies backs up these findings. When 20 women get one additional year of schooling, as a group they will, on average, have one less child. When 1,000 women get one additional year of schooling, on average one to two fewer women from that group will die in childbirth. When a woman stays in school an additional year, that factor alone means that, on average, each of her children will spend an additional half-year in school. Education for girls is a good investment because it is an investment in economic growth with benefits beyond the current generation.
    ::接受更多教育的低收入国家女童往往长大后生育的子女较少、更健康、教育程度更高,其子女更有可能得到更好的营养和免疫等基本保健。关于低收入经济体妇女的经济研究支持了这些研究结果。当20名妇女作为一个群体多上学一年时,她们平均少生一个孩子。当1 000名妇女多上学一年时,该群体的妇女将平均减少1至2人死于分娩。当妇女多上学一年时,仅此因素就意味着每个子女平均要多上学半年。女孩教育是一项良好的投资,因为它是对经济增长的投资,其利益超过当代。

    A Healthy Climate for Economic Growth
    ::健康气候促进经济增长

    While physical and human capital deepening and better technology are important, equally important to a nation’s well-being is the climate or system within which these inputs are cultivated. Both the type of market economy and a legal system that governs and sustains property rights and contractual rights are important contributors to a healthy economic climate.
    ::尽管物质资本和人力资本的深化以及更好的技术是重要的,但对于一个国家的福祉来说,同样重要的是这些投入所赖以培育的气候或制度。 市场经济的类型以及管理和维持财产权和契约权的法律制度都是健康经济环境的重要推动者。

    A healthy economic climate usually involves some sort of market orientation at the microeconomic, individual, or firm decision-making level. Markets that allow personal and business rewards and incentives for increasing human and physical capital encourage overall macroeconomic growth. For example, when workers participate in a competitive and well-functioning labor market, they have an incentive to acquire additional human capital, because additional education and skills will pay off in higher wages. Firms have an incentive to invest in physical capital and in training workers because they expect to earn higher profits for their shareholders. Both individuals and firms look for new technologies because even small inventions can make work easier or lead to product improvement. Collectively, such individual and business decisions made within a market structure add up to macroeconomic growth. Much of the rapid growth since the late nineteenth-century has come from harnessing the power of competitive markets to allocate resources. This market orientation typically reaches beyond national borders and includes openness to international trade.
    ::健康的经济气候通常涉及微观经济、个人或公司决策一级的某种市场取向。允许个人和企业奖励和鼓励增加人力和物质资本的市场鼓励整体宏观经济增长。例如,当工人参与竞争性和运行良好的劳动力市场时,他们有获得额外人力资本的动力,因为额外的教育和技能将带来更高的工资。公司有动力投资于有形资本和培训工人,因为他们期望为股东赚取更高的利润。个人和公司都寻找新技术,因为即使小型发明也能使工作更容易或导致产品改进。集体而言,在市场结构内作出的这种个人和商业决定会增加宏观经济增长。19世纪末以来,许多快速增长来自利用竞争性市场的力量来分配资源。这种市场导向通常超越国界,包括开放国际贸易。

    A general orientation toward markets does not rule out important roles for government. There are times when markets fail to allocate capital or technology in a manner that provides the greatest benefit for society as a whole. The role of the government is to correct these failures. In addition, the government can guide or influence markets toward certain outcomes. The following examples highlight some important areas that governments around the world have chosen to invest in to facilitate capital deepening and technology: Education. The Danish government requires all children under 16 to attend school. They can choose to attend a public school ( Folkeskole ) or a private school. Students do not pay tuition to attend Folkeskole . Thirteen percent of primary/secondary (elementary/high) school is private, and the government supplies vouchers to citizens who choose private school.
    ::面向市场的总方向不排除政府的重要作用。有时市场不能以给整个社会带来最大利益的方式分配资本或技术。政府的作用是纠正这些失败。此外,政府可以引导或影响市场取得某些结果。以下例子突出表明了世界各国政府为促进资本深化和技术而选择投资的一些重要领域:教育。丹麦政府要求所有16岁以下的儿童上学。他们可以选择上公立学校(Folkeskole)或私立学校。学生不付学费去上Folkeskole。小学/中学(小学/高中)的13%是私立学校,政府向选择私立学校的公民发放票券。

    In the United States, as in other countries, private investment is taxed. Low capital gains taxes encourage investment and thereby  economic growth. The Japanese government in the mid-1990s undertook significant infrastructure projects to improve roads and public works. This, in turn, increased the stock of physical capital and ultimately economic growth. 
    ::与其他国家一样,美国对私人投资征税,低资本收益税鼓励投资,从而刺激经济增长。 20世纪90年代中期,日本政府实施了大量基础设施项目来改善道路和公共工程。 这反过来又增加了实物资本存量,并最终增加了经济增长。

    The island of Mauritius is one of the few African nations to encourage international trade in government-supported special economic zones (SEZ). These are areas of the country, usually with access to a port where, among other benefits, the government does not tax trade. As a result of its SEZ, Mauritius has enjoyed above-average economic growth since the 1980s. Free trade does not have to occur in an SEZ, however. Governments can encourage international trade across the board, or surrender to protectionism.
    ::毛里求斯岛是鼓励政府支持的特别经济区(SEZ)国际贸易的为数不多的非洲国家之一,这些地区是毛里求斯的一些地区,通常可以进入一个港口,在那里,除其他好处外,政府不征税贸易,由于它的SEZ,毛里求斯自1980年代以来享有高于平均水平的经济增长,但自由贸易不必发生在SEZ,各国政府可以鼓励全面国际贸易,或屈服于保护主义。

    The European Union has strong programs to invest in scientific research. The researchers Abraham García and Pierre Mohnen demonstrate that firms which received support from the Austrian government actually increased their research intensity and had more sales. Governments can support scientific research and technical training that helps to create and spread new technologies. Governments can also provide a legal environment that protects the ability of inventors to profit from their inventions.
    ::欧盟有强大的科研投资计划。 研究人员亚伯拉罕·加西亚和皮埃尔·莫恩(Pierre Mohnen)证明,得到奥地利政府支持的公司实际上提高了研究强度和销售量。 政府可以支持有助于创造和传播新技术的科学研究和技术培训。 政府也可以提供法律环境保护发明者从发明中获益的能力。

    There are many more ways in which the government can play an active role in promoting economic growth. A healthy climate for growth in GDP per capita and labor productivity includes human capital deepening, physical capital deepening, and technological gains, operating in a market-oriented economy with supportive government policies.
    ::政府可以通过更多方式在促进经济增长中发挥积极作用。 健康的人均GDP增长和劳动生产率环境包括人力资本深化、实物资本深化和技术收益,在市场经济中以政府支持政策为导向。

    Over decades and generations, seemingly small differences of a few percentage points in the annual rate of economic growth make an enormous difference in GDP per capita. Capital deepening refers to an increase in the amount of capital per worker, either human capital per worker, in the form of higher education or skills, or physical capital per worker. Technology, in its economic meaning, refers broadly to all new methods of production, which includes major scientific inventions and also small inventions and even better forms of management or other types of institutions. A healthy climate for growth in GDP per capita consists of improvements in human capital, physical capital, and technology, in a market-oriented environment with supportive public policies and institutions.
    ::数十年和几代人,经济年增长率似乎只有几个百分点的微小差异,使人均国内生产总值有了巨大的差别;资本的深化是指每个工人的资本增加,无论是以高等教育或技能的形式每个工人的人力资本,还是以每个工人的有形资本的形式。 技术在经济意义上广泛是指所有新的生产方法,包括重大的科学发明和小型发明,以及更好的管理形式或其他类型的机构。 人均国内生产总值增长的健康环境包括人力资本、有形资本和技术的改善,在有支持性的公共政策和机构的面向市场的环境中。

    Economic Convergence
    ::经济融合

    Some low-income and middle-income economies around the world have shown a pattern of convergence, in which their economies grow faster than those of high-income countries. GDP increased by an average rate of 2.7% per year in the 1990s and 2.3% per year from 2000 to 2008 in the high-income countries of the world, which include the United States, Canada, the countries of the European Union, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
    ::全世界一些低收入和中等收入经济体呈现了趋同模式,其经济增长速度快于高收入国家。 1990年代,世界高收入国家(包括美国、加拿大、欧洲联盟国家、日本、澳大利亚和新西兰)的GDP年均增长率为2.7%,2000年至2008年,年均增长率为2.3%。 这些高收入国家包括美国、加拿大、欧洲联盟国家、日本、澳大利亚和新西兰。

    lists 10 countries of the world that belong to an informal “fast growth club.” These countries averaged GDP growth (after adjusting for inflation) of at least 5% per year in both the time periods from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2008. Since economic growth in these countries has exceeded the average of the world’s high-income economies, these countries may converge with the high-income countries. The second part of lists the “slow growth club,” which consists of countries that averaged GDP growth of 2% per year or less (after adjusting for inflation) during the same time periods. The final portion of shows GDP growth rates for the countries of the world divided by income.
    ::这些国家在1990—2000年和2000—2008年间平均GDP年增长率至少为5%。 由于这些国家的经济增长已经超过了世界高收入经济体的平均水平,这些国家可能会与高收入国家趋同。 “低增长俱乐部”的第二部分列出了同期国内生产总值年平均增长率为2%或更低(经通胀调整后)的国家。 最后一部分显示了世界各国的GDP增长率除以收入。 

    Economic Growth around the World(Source: h

    Country
    ::国家

    Average Growth Rate of GDP 1990–2000
    ::1990-2000年国内生产总值平均增长率

    Average Growth Rate of GDP 2000–2008
    ::2000-2008年国内生产总值平均增长率

    Fast Growth Club (5% or more per year in both time periods)
    ::快速增长俱乐部(两个期间每年5%或以上)

    Cambodia
    ::柬埔寨 柬埔寨 柬埔寨

    7.1%

    9.1%

    China
    ::中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国 中国

    10.6%

    9.9%

    India
    ::印度 印度 印度

    6.0%

    7.1%

    Ireland
    ::爱尔兰 爱尔兰

    7.5%

    5.1%

    Jordan
    ::约旦 约旦 约旦 约旦 约旦

    5.0%

    6.3%

    Laos
    ::老挝

    6.5%

    6.8 %

    Mozambique
    ::莫桑比克 莫桑比克 莫桑比克

    6.4%

    7.3%

    Sudan
    ::苏丹 苏丹 苏丹 苏丹 苏丹 苏丹

    5.4%

    7.3%

    Uganda
    ::乌干达乌干达

    7.1%

    7.3%

    Vietnam
    ::越南 越南

    7.9%

    7.3%

    Slow Growth Club (2% or less per year in both time periods)
    ::缓慢增长俱乐部(两个期间每年2%或以下)

    Central African Republic
    ::中非共和国中非共和国中非共和国

    2.0%

    0.8%

    France
    ::法国 法国 法国 法国 法国 法国

    2.0%

    1.8%

    Germany
    ::德国 德国

    1.8%

    1.3%

    Guinea-Bissau
    ::几内亚比绍

    1.2%

    0.2%

    Haiti
    ::海地海地海地海地海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地,海地海地,海地,海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地海地

    –1.5%

    0.3%

    Italy
    ::意大利 意大利 意大利 意大利

    1.6%

    1.2%

    Jamaica
    ::牙买加 牙买加 牙买加

    0.9%

    1.4%

    Japan
    ::日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本 日本

    1.3%

    1.3%

    Switzerland
    ::瑞 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士 瑞士

    1.0%

    2.0%

    United States
    ::美国 美国 美国 美国

    3.2%

    2.2%

    World Overview
    ::世界概览

    High income
    ::高收入 高收入

    2.7%

    2.3%

    Low income
    ::低收入 低收入

    3.8%

    5.6%

    Middle income
    ::中等收入

    4.7%

    6.1%

    Each of the countries in has its own unique story of investments in human and physical capital, technological gains, market forces, government policies, and even lucky events, but an overall pattern of convergence is clear. The low-income countries have GDP growth that is faster than that of the middle-income countries, which in turn have GDP growth that is faster than that of the high-income countries. Two prominent members of the fast-growth club are China and India.  Between them, they have nearly 40% of the world’s population. Some prominent members of the slow-growth club are high-income countries like the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan.
    ::每个国家都有自己独特的人力和实物资本投资、技术收益、市场力量、政府政策甚至幸运事件的故事,但总体趋同模式是显而易见的。 低收入国家的GDP增长快于中等收入国家,后者的GDP增长快于高收入国家。 快速增长俱乐部的两个重要成员是中国和印度。 在这两个国家中,它们拥有近40 % 的世界人口。 增长缓慢俱乐部的一些重要成员是高收入国家,如美国、法国、德国、意大利和日本。

    Will this pattern of economic convergence persist into the future? This is a controversial question among economists that we will consider by looking at some of the main arguments on both sides.
    ::这种经济趋同模式是否会持续到未来? 这是一个经济学家中有争议的问题,我们将通过审视双方的一些主要论点来考虑。

    Arguments Favoring Convergence
    ::趋同的争论

    Several arguments suggest that low-income countries might have an advantage in achieving greater worker productivity and economic growth in the future.
    ::若干论点表明,低收入国家在今后提高工人生产力和经济增长方面可能具有优势。

    A first argument is based on diminishing marginal returns. Even though deepening human and physical capital will tend to increase GDP per capita, the law of diminishing returns suggests that as an economy continues to increase its human and physical capital, the marginal gains to economic growth will diminish. For example, raising the average education level of the population by two years from a tenth-grade level to a high school diploma (while holding all other inputs constant) would produce a certain increase in output. An additional two-year increase, so that the average person had a two-year college degree, would increase output further, but the marginal gain would be smaller. Yet another additional two-year increase in the level of education, so that the average person would have a four-year-college bachelor’s degree, would increase output still further, however,  the marginal increase would again be smaller. A similar lesson holds for physical capital. If the quantity of physical capital available to the average worker increases, by, say, $5,000 to $10,000 (again, while holding all other inputs constant), it will increase the level of output. An additional increase from $10,000 to $15,000 will increase output further, but the marginal increase will be smaller.
    ::第一个论点是以降低边际回报为基础。 尽管深化人力和物力资本会增加人均GDP,但降低收益法表明,随着经济继续增加其人力和物力资本,经济增长的边际收益将会减少。 比如,将人口平均教育水平提高两年,从十年级提高到高中文凭(同时保持所有其他投入不变 ) , 将产生一定的产量增长。 再增加两年,使普通人拥有两年的大学学位,将进一步增加产出,但边际收益将会减少。 再增加两年的教育水平,使普通人拥有四年大学学士学位,从而将进一步增加产出。 然而,边际增长将再次减少。 类似的经验对实际资本也有影响。 如果平均工人的有形资本数量增加,比如说,5 000美元到10 000美元(增加,同时保持所有其他投入不变 ) , 将增加产出水平。 额外增加的从10 000美元增加到15 000美元,但边际增长将缩小。

    Low-income countries like China and India tend to have lower levels of human capital and physical capital, so an investment in capital deepening should have a larger marginal effect in these countries than in high-income countries where levels of human and physical capital are already relatively high. Diminishing returns implies that low-income economies could converge to the levels achieved by the high-income countries.
    ::中国和印度等低收入国家的人力资本和实物资本水平往往较低,因此资本深化投资对这些国家的影响比对人力和实物资本水平已经相对较高的高收入国家的影响要小。 降低回报意味着低收入经济体可以与高收入国家达到的水平趋同。

    A second argument is that low-income countries may find it easier to improve their technologies than high-income countries. High-income countries must continually invent new technologies whereas low-income countries can often find ways of applying technology that has already been invented and is well understood. The economist Alexander Gerschenkron (1904–1978) gave this phenomenon a memorable name: “the advantages of backwardness.” Of course, he did not literally mean that it is an advantage to have a lower standard of living. He was pointing out that a country that is behind has some extra potential for catching up.
    ::第二个论点是低收入国家可能发现比高收入国家更容易改进技术。 高收入国家必须不断发明新技术,而低收入国家往往可以找到应用已经发明并广为人知的技术的方法。 经济学家亚历山大·格申克伦(Alexander Gerschenkron ) (1974-1978年 ) 将这一现象命名为“落后的优势 ” 。 当然,他并不真正意味着拥有较低的生活水平是一种优势。 他指出,落后国家有一些超强的追赶潜力。

    Finally, optimists argue that many countries have observed the experience of those that have grown more quickly and have learned from it. Moreover, once the people of a country begin to enjoy the benefits of a higher standard of living, they may be more likely to build and support the market-friendly institutions that will help provide this standard of living.
    ::最后,乐观主义者认为,许多国家已经看到那些增长更快并从中吸取教训的国家的经验。 此外,一旦一个国家的人民开始享受更高生活水平的好处,他们就更有可能建立和支持有助于提供这种生活水平的市场友好型机构。

    Arguments That Convergence Is neither Inevitable nor Likely
    ::趋同的论据既非无可证明,也非可能

    If the growth of an economy depended only on the deepening of human capital and physical capital, then the growth rate of that economy would be expected to slow down over the long run because of diminishing marginal returns. However, there is another crucial factor in the aggregate production function: technology.
    ::如果一个经济增长仅仅取决于人力资本和有形资本的深化,那么,由于边际回报减少,预期这一经济的增长率将长期放缓,但总生产功能中还有一个关键因素:技术。

    The development of new technology can provide a way for an economy to sidestep the diminishing marginal returns of capital deepening. shows how. The horizontal axis of the figure measures the amount of capital deepening, which on this figure is an overall measure that includes deepening of both physical and human capital. The amount of human and physical capital per worker increases as you move from left to right, from C 1 to C 2 to C 3 . The vertical axis of the diagram measures per capita output. Start by considering the lowest line in this diagram, labeled Technology 1. Along this aggregate production function, the level of technology is being held constant, so the line shows only the relationship between capital deepening and output. As capital deepens from C 1 to C 2 to C 3 and the economy moves from R to U to W, per capita output does increase—but the way in which the line starts out steeper on the left but then flattens as it moves to the right shows the diminishing marginal returns, as additional marginal amounts of capital deepening increase output by ever-smaller amounts. The shape of the aggregate production line (Technology 1) shows that the ability of capital deepening, by itself, to generate sustained economic growth is limited, since diminishing returns will eventually set in.
    ::新技术的发展可以为经济提供一条办法,让资本深化的边际回报减少。 显示如何。 数字的横向轴测量资本深化的数量, 这个数字上是一个总体衡量尺度, 包括深化有形资本和人力资本。 每工人的人力和实物资本数量随着从左向右增长, 从C1到C2到C3。 图中的垂直轴测量人均产出。 从考虑图中的最低线开始, 标签为Tech 1: 技术水平在这一总生产功能中保持恒定, 因此, 该线只显示资本深化与产出之间的关系。 随着资本从C1到C2到C3的深度以及经济从R到U到W的深度, 人均产出确实在增加 — 但线从左向右的加速, 然后随着向右移动的平坦, 显示边回报不断下降, 即资本不断缩小的边际增加的边际值。 总体生产线( Technlogic 1) 的形状显示, 资本不断深化, 其创造持续经济增长的能力最终将受到限制。

                                         Capital Deepening and New Technology
    ::资本深化和新技术

     

    Imagine that the economy starts at point R, with the level of physical and human capital C 1 and the output per capita at G 1 . If the economy relies only on capital deepening, while remaining at the technology level shown by the Technology 1 line, then it would face diminishing marginal returns as it moved from point R to point U to point W. However, now imagine that capital deepening is combined with improvements in technology. Then, as capital deepens from C 1 to C 2 , technology improves from Technology 1 to Technology 2, and the economy moves from R to S. Similarly, as capital deepens from C 2 to C 3 , technology increases from Technology 2 to Technology 3, and the economy moves from S to T. With improvements in technology, there is no longer any reason that economic growth must necessarily slow down.
    ::想象一下经济从R点开始,有形资本和人力资本C1水平以及人均产出水平为G1。 如果经济仅依靠资本深化,同时保持技术1线显示的技术水平,那么随着从R点到U点到W点,经济将面临边际回报的减少。 然而,现在想象资本深化与技术进步相结合。 然后,随着资本从C1到C2的深化,技术从技术1到技术2,技术从技术2进步到技术2,而经济从资本从C2到C3的深化,技术从技术2到技术3的技术增加,以及经济从技术S到技术T。 随着技术的进步,再没有任何理由认为经济增长必须放慢。

    Now, bring improvements in technology into the picture. Improved technology means that with a given set of inputs, more output is possible. The production function labeled Technology 1 in the figure is based on one level of technology, but Technology 2 is based on an improved level of technology, so for every level of capital deepening on the horizontal axis, it produces a higher level of output on the vertical axis. In turn, production function Technology 3 represents a still higher level of technology, so that for every level of inputs on the horizontal axis, it produces a higher level of output on the vertical axis than either of the other two aggregate production functions.
    ::现在,将技术的改进带入图中。技术的改进意味着,如果有一套特定的投入,就有可能有更多的产出。图中标明的技术1的生产功能基于一个技术水平,但技术2基于一个技术水平的提高,因此,对于横向轴上的每个资本水平的深化,它会产生更高的垂直轴产出水平。反过来,生产功能Tech Technology 3代表着一个更高的技术水平,因此,对于横向轴上的每一个投入水平,它产生的垂直轴产出水平高于其他两个总生产功能中的任何一个。

    Most healthy, growing economies are deepening their human and physical capital and increasing technology at the same time. As a result, the economy can move from a choice like point R on the Technology 1 aggregate production line to a point like S on Technology 2 and a point like T on the still higher aggregate production line (Technology 3). With the combination of technology and capital deepening, the rise in GDP per capita in high-income countries does not need to fade away because of diminishing returns. The gains from technology can offset the diminishing returns involved with capital deepening.
    ::最健康、增长的经济体正在深化其人力和有形资本,同时增加技术。 结果,经济可以从技术1总生产线R点等选择转向技术2点和技术2点等选择,再转向技术2点等选择,再到技术3点等高水平总生产线T(技术3 ) 。 随着技术和资本的不断深化,高收入国家人均GDP的上升不必因为回报下降而消失。 技术收益可以抵消资本深化带来的回报下降。

    Will technological improvements themselves run into diminishing returns over time? That is, will it become continually harder and more costly to discover new technological improvements? Perhaps someday, but, at least over the last two centuries since the Industrial Revolution, improvements in technology have not run into diminishing marginal returns. Modern inventions, like the Internet or discoveries in genetics or materials science, do not seem to provide smaller gains to output than earlier inventions like the steam engine or the railroad. One reason that technological ideas do not seem to run into diminishing returns is that the ideas of new technology can often be widely applied at a marginal cost that is very low or even zero. A specific additional machine, or an additional year of education, must be used by a specific worker or group of workers. A new technology or invention can be used by many workers across the economy at very low marginal cost.
    ::科技进步本身是否会随着时间推移而逐渐降低回报? 也就是说,发现新技术进步是否会变得持续地更加困难和成本更高? 也许有一天,但至少自工业革命以来的近两个世纪里,科技进步并没有逐渐降低边际回报。 现代发明,如互联网或遗传学或材料科学发现,似乎不会比早期发明,如蒸汽机或铁路等为产出带来较小的收益。 技术理念似乎不会逐渐降低回报的一个原因是,新技术的理念往往可以以非常低甚至零的边际成本被广泛应用。 特定工人或工人群体必须使用特定的附加机器或额外一年的教育。 新技术或发明可以被整个经济中许多工人以非常低的边际成本使用。

    The argument that it is easier for a low-income country to copy and adapt existing technology than it is for a high-income country to invent new technology is not necessarily true either. When it comes to adapting and using new technology, a society’s performance is not necessarily guaranteed but is the result of whether the economic, educational and public policy institutions of the country are supportive. In theory, perhaps, low-income countries have many opportunities to copy and adapt technology, but if they lack the appropriate supportive economic infrastructure and institutions, the theoretical possibility that backwardness might have certain advantages is of little practical relevance.
    ::低收入国家复制和改造现有技术比高收入国家发明新技术容易得多,这一观点也不一定如此。 在改造和使用新技术方面,社会的表现不一定得到保证,而是由于国家的经济、教育和公共政策机构是否支持的结果。 在理论上,低收入国家也许有许多机会复制和改造技术,但如果它们缺乏适当的支持性经济基础设施和机构,落后可能具有某些实际好处的理论可能性就没有什么实际意义。

    The Slowness of Convergence
    ::趋同缓慢

    Although economic convergence between the high-income countries and the rest of the world seems possible and even likely, it will proceed slowly. Consider, for example, a country that starts off with a GDP per capita of $40,000, which would roughly represent a typical high-income country today, and another country that starts out at $4,000, which is roughly the level in low-income but not impoverished countries like Indonesia, Guatemala, or Egypt. Say that the rich country chugs along at a 2% annual growth rate of GDP per capita, while the poorer country grows at the aggressive rate of 7% per year. After 30 years, GDP per capita in the rich country will be $72,450 (that is, $40,000 (1 + 0.02) 30 ) while in the poor country it will be $30,450 (that is, $4,000 (1 + 0.07) 30 ). Convergence has occurred; the rich country used to be 10 times as wealthy as the poor one, and now it is only about 2.4 times as wealthy. Even after 30 consecutive years of very rapid growth, however, people in the low-income country are still likely to feel quite poor compared to people in the rich country. Moreover, as the poor country catches up, its opportunities for catch-up growth are reduced, and its growth rate may slow down somewhat.
    ::尽管高收入国家与世界其他地区的经济趋同似乎有可能,甚至有可能,但将会缓慢地进行。比如,考虑一个以人均GDP40 000美元(即40 000美元(1+0.02))开始的国家,这大致代表今天一个典型的高收入国家,以及另一个以4 000美元(即4 000美元(1+0.07)开始的国家,这大致相当于印度尼西亚、危地马拉或埃及等低收入但非贫穷国家的水平。说富裕国家人均GDP年增长率为2%,而较贫穷国家以每年7%的惊人速度增长。但是,30年后,富国的人均GDP将达到72 450美元(即40 000美元(1+0.02) 30美元),而穷国的人均GDP将达到30 450美元(即4 000美元(1+0.07) 30美元)。 已经出现趋同;富国曾经是穷人的10倍,现在只有2.4倍。即使连续30年增长非常迅速,低收入国家的人民仍可能感到相当贫穷,但与富国的人相比,其增长速度可能放慢。此外,其贫穷国家的增长速度可能放慢。

    The slowness of convergence again i llustrates that small differences in annual rates of economic growth become huge differences over time. The high-income countries have been building up their advantage in the standard of living over decades—more than a century in some cases. Even in an optimistic scenario, it will take decades for the low-income countries of the world to catch up significantly.
    ::趋同速度缓慢再次表明,经济年增长率的微小差异随时间推移而变得差异巨大,高收入国家几十年来在生活水平方面不断提高优势,有时甚至超过一个世纪,即使是乐观的假设,世界低收入国家也需要几十年的时间才能赶上。

    When countries with lower levels of GDP per capita catch up to countries with higher levels of GDP per capita, the process is called convergence. Convergence can occur even when both high- and low-income countries increase investment in the physical and human capital with the objective of growing GDP. This is because the impact of new investment in physical and human capital on a low-income country may result in huge gains as new skills or equipment are combined with the labor force. In higher-income countries, however, a level of investment equal to that of the low-income country is not likely to have as big an impact, because the more developed country most likely has high levels of capital investment. Therefore, the marginal gain from this additional investment tends to be successively less and less. Higher income countries are more likely to have diminishing returns to their investments and must continually invent new technologies; this allows lower-income economies to have a chance for convergent growth. However, many high-income economies have developed economic and political institutions that provide a healthy economic climate for an ongoing stream of technological innovations. Continuous technological innovation can counterbalance diminishing returns to investments in human and physical capital.
    ::当人均国内总产值水平较低的国家赶上人均国内总产值水平较高的国家时,这一过程就被称为趋同;即使高低收入国家增加对有形资本和人力资本的投资,以国内生产总值增长为目标,也可能出现趋同;这是因为对低收入国家的有形资本和人力资本的新投资的影响可能会带来巨大的收益,因为新的技能或设备与劳动力队伍相结合,使低收入国家的有形资本和人力资本得到的新投资有可能带来巨大的收益;然而,在高收入国家,与低收入国家同等水平的投资不太可能产生如此大的影响,因为较发达的国家最有可能拥有高水平的资本投资;因此,这种额外投资的边际收益往往越来越少,而且越来越少;高收入国家更有可能减少其投资的回报,而且必须不断发明新技术;这使得低收入经济体有机会实现趋同增长;然而,许多高收入经济体已经发展了为持续的技术创新提供健康经济环境的经济和政治体制。 持续的技术创新可以抵消对人力资本和有形资本投资的不断减少的回报。

    Video: Productivity and Growth
    ::视频:生产力与增长

     

    Answer the self check questions below to monitor your understanding of the concepts in this section.
    ::回答下面的自我核对问题,以监测你对本节概念的理解。

    Self Check Questions
    ::自查问题

    1. Define primitive equilibrium.
    ::1. 界定原始平衡。

    2. List 4 categories of economic development.
    ::2. 列出经济发展的四类。

    3. List the 4 priorities of developing nations.
    ::3. 列出发展中国家的4个优先事项。