Section outline

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  • 货币政策货币政策

    Monetary Policy
    ::货币政策货币政策

    The monetary policy of a nation affects various aspects of the economy. As the regulator of monetary policy the Fed:  maintains the size of the money supply, influences the interest rates, can change the reserve requirements of banks, operates the buying and selling of government bonds, and determines margin requirements. The impact of the monetary policy can affect interest rates and the various sectors of the economy, which in turn can affect the allocation of resources such as capital and labor.
    ::一个国家的货币政策会影响经济的各个方面。 作为货币政策的监管者,美联储:维持货币供应的规模,影响利率,可以改变银行的储备要求,经营政府债券的买卖,并确定利润要求。 货币政策的影响会影响利率和各个经济部门,而这反过来又会影响资本和劳动力等资源的分配。

    Universal Generalizations
    ::普遍化

    • Federal Reserve actions tend to stabilize the economy by altering the monetary policy.
      ::美联储的行动往往通过改变货币政策来稳定经济。
    • The Fed does not hesitate to change the interest rates whenever it believes it will benefit the nation.
      ::只要美联储认为能给国家带来好处,就毫不犹豫地改变利率。

    Guiding Questions
    ::问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问 问

    1. What is the term for the rule which states the percentage of every deposit that is to be set aside as a legal reserve?
      ::规定作为法律储备预留的每笔存款的百分比的规则的术语是什么?
    2. What does the fractional reserve system allow the money supply to do?
      ::分数储备制度允许货币供应做什么?
    3. What is the open market operations?
      ::什么是开放市场运作?

    Monetary policy is one of the Federal Reserve's most important responsibilities. Monetary policy is the Federal Reserve's decision to either expand or contract the money supply in order to influence the cost of available credit.  The United States banking system has a fractional reserve system, which requires any depository institution to keep a percentage or fraction of their deposits on reserve, or set aside and not allowed to be loaned out. This system prevents the bank from lending out all of the deposits put into the bank. Why would the Federal Reserve System do this? First, it protects the bank from lending out too much money. Second, it protects those people who put their money in the bank. Finally, it can help the money supply grow. 
    ::货币政策是美联储最重要的责任之一。 货币政策是美联储扩大货币供应或签订合同以影响现有信贷成本的决定。 美国银行系统有一个分数储备系统,它要求任何托存机构将其存款的一定百分比或部分保留在储备中,或者留出,不允许放贷。这个系统阻止银行将所有存入银行的存款放出银行。为什么美联储系统这样做?首先,它保护银行不借太多钱。第二,它保护那些把钱放进银行的人。最后,它能够帮助货币供应的增长。

    In many respects, the Fed is the most powerful maker of economic policy in the United States. Congress can pass laws, but the president must execute them; the president can propose laws, but only Congress can pass them. The Fed, however, both sets and carries out monetary policy. Deliberations about fiscal policy can drag on for months, even years, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can, behind closed doors, set monetary policy in a day—and see that policy implemented within hours. The Board of Governors can change the discount rate or reserve requirements at any time. The impact of the Fed’s policies on the economy can be quite dramatic. The Fed can push interest rates up or down. It can promote a recession or an expansion. It can cause the inflation rate to rise or fall. The Fed wields enormous power.
    ::在许多方面,美联储是美国经济政策最强大的缔造者。 国会可以通过法律,但总统必须执行法律;总统可以提出法律,但只有国会可以通过法律。 但是,美联储可以制定并执行货币政策。 美联储对财政政策的审议可以拖延数月甚至数年,但联邦开放市场委员会(FOMC)可以在一天之内就制定货币政策 — — 并且可以在数小时内执行这一政策。 董事会可以随时改变贴现率或储备要求。美联储政策对经济的影响可能非常巨大。 美联储可以将利率上下推。 它可以推动衰退或扩张。 它可以导致通胀率上升或下降。 美联储拥有巨大的权力。

    But to what ends should all this power be directed? With what tools are the Fed’s policies carried out? Which problems exist in trying to achieve the Fed’s goals? This section reviews the goals of monetary policy, the tools available to the Fed in pursuing those goals, and the way in which monetary policy affects macroeconomic variables.
    ::但是,这些权力应该达到什么目的? 美联储的政策是用什么手段执行的? 在试图实现美联储目标时存在哪些问题? 本节回顾了货币政策的目标、美联储在实现这些目标时可用的工具以及货币政策如何影响宏观经济变量。

    Video: Monetary and Fiscal Policy
    ::录像:货币和财政政策

    Goals of Monetary Policy
    ::货币政策目标

    When we think of the goals of monetary policy, we naturally think of standards of macroeconomic performance that seem desirable—a low unemployment rate, a stable price level, and economic growth. It seems reasonable to conclude that the goals of monetary policy should include the maintenance of full employment, the avoidance of inflation or deflation, and the promotion of economic growth.
    ::当我们想到货币政策的目标时,我们自然会想到似乎可取的宏观经济表现标准 — — 低失业率、稳定的物价水平和经济增长。 似乎有理由得出结论,货币政策的目标应该包括维持充分就业、避免通货膨胀或通缩以及促进经济增长。

    But these goals, each of which is desirable in itself, may conflict with one another. A monetary policy that helps to close a recessionary gap and thus promotes full employment may accelerate inflation. A monetary policy that seeks to reduce inflation may increase unemployment and weak economic growth. You might expect that in such cases, monetary authorities would receive guidance from legislation spelling out goals for the Fed to pursue and specifying what to do when achieving one goal means not achieving another. But as we shall see, that kind of guidance does not exist.
    ::但是,这些目标本身都是可取的,它们可能相互冲突。 有助于缩小衰退差距、从而促进充分就业的货币政策可能会加速通胀。 试图降低通胀的货币政策可能会增加失业和经济增长疲软。 你可能会期望,在这种情况下,货币当局会从立法中得到指导,阐明美联储在实现目标时追求的目标,并具体说明在实现目标时应该做什么,这意味着不能实现另一个目标。 但我们可以看到,这种指导并不存在。

    The Federal Reserve Act
    ::《联邦储备法》

    When Congress established the Federal Reserve System in 1913, it said little about the policy goals the Fed should seek. The closest it came to spelling out the goals of monetary policy was in the first paragraph of the Federal Reserve Act, the legislation that created the Fed:
    ::1913年国会建立联邦储备体系时,对美联储应该追求的政策目标只字未提。 最接近于阐明货币政策目标的是《联邦储备法》第一段,即创建美联储的立法:

    “An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, [to make loans to banks], to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.”
    ::“规定建立联邦储备银行、提供弹性货币、[向银行提供贷款]、对美国银行业务实行更有效的监督以及用于其他目的的法律。”

    In short, nothing in the legislation creating the Fed anticipates that the institution will act to close recessionary or inflationary gaps, that it will seek to spur economic growth, or that it will strive to keep the price level steady. There is no guidance as to what the Fed should do when these goals conflict with one another.
    ::简言之,建立美联储的立法中没有任何规定预期该机构将采取行动弥合衰退或通货膨胀差距,寻求刺激经济增长,或努力保持物价稳定。 对于这些目标相互冲突时美联储应该做些什么,没有任何指导。

    The Employment Act of 1946
    ::1946年《就业法》

    The first U.S. effort to specify macroeconomic goals came after World War II. The Great Depression of the 1930s had instilled in people a deep desire to prevent similar calamities in the future. That desire, coupled with the 1936 publication of John Maynard Keynes’s prescription for avoiding such problems through government policy ( The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money ), led to the passage of the Employment Act of 1946, which declared that the federal government should “use all practical means . . . to promote maximum employment, production and purchasing power.” The act also created the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) to advise the president on economic matters.
    ::美国第一次努力确定宏观经济目标是在第二次世界大战之后。 1930年代的大萧条向人们灌输了防止今后发生类似灾难的强烈愿望。 这一愿望,加上1936年约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯通过政府政策(《就业、利益和金钱总论》)避免此类问题的处方,导致了1946年《就业法》的通过,该法宣布联邦政府应“利用一切实际手段......促进最大限度的就业、生产和购买力 ” 。 该法还设立了经济顾问委员会(CEA),就经济问题向总统提供咨询。

    The Fed might be expected to be influenced by this specification of federal goals, but because it is an independent agency, it is not required to follow any particular path. Furthermore, the legislation does not suggest what should be done if the goals of achieving full employment and maximum purchasing power conflict.
    ::美联储可能会受到联邦目标的这一具体规定的影响,但因为美联储是一个独立的机构,所以它不必走任何特定的道路。 此外,立法并不建议如果实现充分就业和最大购买力冲突的目标应该做些什么。

    The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978
    ::1978年《全面就业和平衡增长法》

    The clearest and most specific, statement of federal economic goals came in the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. This act, generally known as the Humphrey–Hawkins Act, specified that by 1983 the federal government should achieve an unemployment rate among adults of 3% or less, a civilian unemployment rate of 4% or less, and an inflation rate of 3% or less. Although these goals have the virtue of specificity, they offer little in terms of practical policy guidance. The last time the civilian unemployment rate in the United States fell below 4% was 1969, and the inflation rate that year was 6.2%. In 2000, the unemployment rate touched 4%, and the inflation rate that year was 3.4%, so the goals were close to being met. Except for 2007 when inflation hit 4.1%, inflation has hovered between 1.6% and 3.4% in all the other years between 1991 and 2011, so the inflation goal was met or nearly met, but unemployment fluctuated between 4.0% and 9.6% during those years.
    ::1978年的《全面就业和平衡增长法案 》 ( 1978年的《 全面就业和平衡增长法案 ) , 联邦经济目标的最明确和最具体的陈述出现在1978年的《全面就业和平衡增长法案 》 。 该法案(通称为《汉弗莱-霍金斯法案 》 ) 规定,到1983年,联邦政府应当实现成年人失业率为3%或以下、平民失业率为4%或以下、通货膨胀率为3%或以下、通货膨胀率为3%或以下。 尽管这些目标具有特殊性,但从实际政策指导角度来说,它们几乎没有提供什么。 上一次美国平民失业率低于4 % 的年份是1969年,而当年的通货膨胀率为6.2 % 。 2000年,失业率达到了4 % , 年的通货膨胀率为3.4 % , 目标也接近实现。 除2007年外,通胀达到4.1 % , 1991年至2011年其他年份的通货膨胀率都在1.6 % 至3.4 % 之间徘徊,因此通胀目标已经达到或接近达到或接近实现,但失业率在4.0 % 至9.6 % 之间浮动。

    The Humphrey-Hawkins Act requires that the chairman of the Fed’s Board of Governors report twice each year to Congress about the Fed’s monetary policy. These sessions provide an opportunity for members of the House and Senate to express their views on monetary policy.
    ::《汉弗莱-霍金斯法案》要求美联储理事会主席每年两次向国会报告美联储的货币政策。 这些会议为众议院和参议院成员表达对货币政策的观点提供了机会。

    Federal Reserve Policy and Goals
    ::美联储政策和目标

    Perhaps the clearest way to see the Fed’s goals is to observe the policy choices it makes. Since 1979, following a bout of double-digit inflation, its actions have suggested that the Fed’s primary goal is to keep inflation under control. Provided that the inflation rate falls within acceptable limits, however, the Fed will also use stimulative measures to attempt to close recessionary gaps.
    ::也许最清楚的观察美联储目标的方法就是观察美联储的政策选择。 1979年以来,继两位数通胀之后,美联储的行动表明美联储的首要目标是控制通胀。 但是,只要通胀率在可接受的限度内,美联储也将采取刺激性措施试图缩小衰退差距。

    In 1979, the Fed, then led by Paul Volcker, launched a deliberate program of reducing the inflation rate. It stuck to that effort through the early 1980s, even in the face of a major recession. That effort achieved its goal: the annual inflation rate fell from 13.3% in 1979 to 3.8% in 1982. The cost, however, was great. Unemployment soared past 9% during the recession. With the inflation rate below 4%, the Fed shifted to a stimulative policy early in 1983.
    ::1979年,当时由保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)领导的美联储启动了一个刻意降低通胀率的计划。 1980年代初,即使面临重大衰退,美联储也坚持了这一努力。 这一努力实现了它的目标:年通胀率从1979年的13.3%下降到1982年的3.8%。 然而,代价是巨大的。 衰退期间失业率猛增了9 % 。 通货膨胀率低于4 % , 美联储于1983年初转向了刺激政策。

    In 1990, when the economy slipped into a recession, the Fed, with Alan Greenspan at the helm, engaged in aggressive open-market operations to stimulate the economy, despite the fact that the inflation rate had jumped to 6.1%. Much of that increase in the inflation rate, however, resulted from an oil-price boost that came in the wake of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait that year. A jump in prices that occurs at the same time as real GDP is slumping suggests a leftward shift in short-run aggregate supply, a shift that creates a recessionary gap. Fed officials concluded that the upturn in inflation in 1990 was a temporary phenomenon and that an expansionary policy was an appropriate response to a weak economy. Once the recovery was clearly underway, the Fed shifted to a neutral policy, seeking neither to boost nor to reduce aggregate demand. Early in 1994, the Fed shifted to a contractionary policy, selling bonds to reduce the money supply and raise interest rates. Then Fed Chairman Greenspan indicated that the move was intended to head off any possible increase in inflation from its 1993 rate of 2.7%. Although the economy was still in a recessionary gap when the Fed acted, Greenspan indicated that any acceleration of the inflation rate would be unacceptable.
    ::1990年,当经济滑入衰退时,美联储(Alan Greenspan)以艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)为首,为刺激经济进行了积极的开放市场行动,尽管事实上通货膨胀率已经跃升到6.1%。 但是,通货膨胀率的这一增长大部分是由于伊拉克当年入侵科威特后油价的上涨造成的。 价格的暴涨与实际GDP正在衰退同时发生,表明短期总供应出现向左倾的转变,造成衰退差距。 美联储官员的结论是,1990年通胀上升是一种暂时现象,扩张性政策是对疲软经济的适当反应。 一旦复苏明显开始,美联储就转向了中立政策,既不寻求刺激,也不减少总需求。 1994年初,美联储转向紧缩政策,出售债券以减少货币供应,提高利率。 接着美联储主席格林斯潘(Greenspan)表示,这一举动意在从1993年2.7 % 的通胀率中抵消任何可能的增长。 尽管美联储采取行动时经济仍处于衰退的缺口,但格林斯潘(Grespan)表示,任何通胀的加速速度都是不可接受的。

    By March 1997 the inflation rate had fallen to 2.4%. The Fed became concerned that inflationary pressures were increasing and tightened monetary policy, raising the goal for the federal funds interest rate to 5.5%. Inflation remained well below 2.0% throughout the rest of 1997 and 1998. In the fall of 1998, with inflation low, the Fed was concerned that the economic recession in much of Asia and slow growth in Europe would reduce growth in the United States. In quarter-point steps, it reduced the goal for the federal funds rate to 4.75%. With real GDP growing briskly in the first half of 1999, the Fed became concerned that inflation would increase, even though the inflation rate at the time was about 2%, and in June 1999, it raised its goal for the federal funds rate to 5% and continued raising the rate until it reached 6.5% in May 2000.
    ::到1997年3月,通货膨胀率已经下降到2.4 % 。 美联储开始担心通胀压力正在增加和紧缩货币政策,将联邦基金利率的目标提高到5.5%。 在整个1997年和1998年的剩余时间里,通货膨胀率仍然远远低于2.0%。 在1998年的秋季,通货膨胀率低,美联储担心亚洲大部分地区的经济衰退和欧洲的缓慢增长会降低美国的增长。 在季度步骤中,美联储将联邦基金利率的目标降低到4.75 % 。 1999年上半年,美联储担心尽管当时的通货膨胀率约为2%,但通胀会上升。 1999年6月,美联储将联邦基金利率的目标提高到5%,并继续将利率提高到2000年5月的6.5%。

    With inflation under control, it then began lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate the economy. It continued lowering through the brief recession of 2001 and beyond. There were 11 rate cuts in 2001, with the rate at the end of that year at 1.75%; in late 2002 the rate was cut to 1.25%, and in mid-2003 it was cut to 1.0%.
    ::随着通货膨胀的控制,它随后开始降低联邦资金利率以刺激经济。 2001年及以后的短暂衰退中,它继续下降。 2001年有11个国家削减了利率,当年底的利率为1.75%;2002年底,利率被削减到1.25%,2003年年中被削减到1.0%。

    Then, with growth picking up and inflation again a concern, the Fed began again in the middle of 2004 to increase rates. By the end of 2006, the rate stood at 5.25% as a result of 17 quarter-point rate increases.
    ::接着,随着增长的加速和通胀再次引起关注,美联储于2004年年中再次开始提高利率。 到2006年底,由于17个季度利率的上升,利率为5.25%。

    Starting in September 2007, the Fed, since 2006 led by Ben Bernanke, shifted gears and began lowering the federal funds rate, mostly in larger steps or 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points. Though initially somewhat concerned with inflation, it sensed that the economy was beginning to slow down. It moved aggressively to lower rates over the course of the next 15 months, and by the end of 2008, the rate was targeted at between 0% and 0.25%. In late 2008 through 2011, beginning with the threat of deflation and then progressing into a period during which inflation ran fairly low, the Fed seemed quite willing to use all of its options to try to keep financial markets running smoothly. The Fed attempted, in the initial period, to moderate the recession, and then it tried to support the rather lackluster growth that followed. In January 2012, the Fed went on record to say that given its expectation that inflation would remain under control and that the economy would have slack, it anticipated keeping the federal funds rate at extremely low levels through late 2014.
    ::从2007年9月开始,本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)领导的美联储自2006年9月以本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)为首,转变了齿轮,开始降低联邦基金利率,主要是大步或0.5至0.75个百分点。 尽管最初对通货膨胀有些关注,但美联储意识到经济开始放缓。 在未来15个月中,美联储开始大幅降低利率,到2008年底,其目标为零至0.25 % 。 2008年底至2011年,从通缩威胁开始,随后进入通胀相当低的时期,美联储似乎非常愿意利用所有选择来保持金融市场的平稳运行。 美联储在最初阶段试图缓和衰退,然后试图支持随后的相当低的经济增长。 2012年1月,美联储正式表示,鉴于预期通胀将依然处于控制之下,而且经济将会放缓,预计2014年底联邦基金利率将保持在极低的水平。

    What can we infer from these episodes in the 1980s, 1990s, and the first decade of this century? It seems clear that the Fed is determined not to allow the high inflation rates of the 1970s to occur again. When the inflation rate is within acceptable limits, the Fed will undertake stimulative measures in response to a recessionary gap or even in response to the possibility of a growth slowdown. Those limits seem to have tightened over time. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, it appeared that an inflation rate above 3%—or any indication that inflation might rise above 3%—would lead the Fed to adopt a contractionary policy. While on the Federal Reserve Board in the early 2000s, Ben Bernanke had been an advocate of inflation targeting. Under that system, the central bank announces its inflation target and then adjusts the federal funds rate if the inflation rate moves above or below the central bank’s target. Mr. Bernanke indicated his preferred target to be an expected increase in the price level, as measured by the price index for consumer goods and services excluding food and energy, of between 1% and 2%. Thus, the inflation goal appears to have tightened even more—to a rate of 2% or less. If inflation were expected to remain below 2%, however, the Fed would undertake stimulative measures to close a recessionary gap. Whether the Fed will hold to that goal will not really be tested until further macroeconomic experiences unfold.
    ::我们从1980年代、1990年代和本世纪第一个十年的这些情况中可以得出什么结论?似乎美联储决心不允许再次出现1970年代的高通货膨胀率。当通胀率在可接受的限度内时,美联储将采取刺激性措施应对衰退差距,甚至应对增长放缓的可能性。这些限制似乎随着时间推移而有所收紧。在1990年代末和2000年代初,通胀率超过3或任何迹象表明通胀可能上升超过3 将导致美联储采取紧缩政策。 在2000年代初的美联储储备委员会中,本·贝南克一直倡导通胀目标。 在该制度下,美联储将采取刺激性措施应对衰退差距,甚至应对通胀速度放缓的可能性。 伯南克先生表示,他所希望的目标将是价格水平的预期增长,以消费商品和服务(不包括食品和能源)的物价指数衡量,导致美联储采取紧缩政策。 在2000年代初,本伯南克曾倡导过通胀目标。 因此,央行将宣布其通胀目标,如果通胀率超过2,则美联储的通胀率将低于1 % 。

    Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Variables
    ::货币政策和宏观经济变量

    We saw in an earlier chapter that the Fed has three tools at its command to try to change aggregate demand and thus to influence the level of economic activity. It can buy or sell federal government bonds through open-market operations, it can change the discount rate, or it can change reserve requirements. It can also use these tools in combination. In the next section of this chapter, where we discuss the notion of a liquidity trap, we will also introduce more extraordinary measures that the Fed has at its disposal.
    ::我们在前面的一章中看到,美联储有三套工具,可以试图改变总需求,从而影响经济活动水平。 美联储可以通过开放市场购买或出售联邦政府债券,也可以改变贴现率,也可以改变储备要求。 美联储还可以同时使用这些工具。 在本章下一节中,我们讨论了流动性陷阱的概念,我们还将引入美联储可以支配的更特殊的措施。

    Most economists agree that these tools of monetary policy affect the economy, but they sometimes disagree on the precise mechanisms through which this occurs, on the strength of those mechanisms, and on the ways in which monetary policy should be used. Before we address some of these issues, we shall review the ways in which monetary policy affects the economy in the context of the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Our focus will be on open-market operations, the purchase or sale by the Fed of federal bonds.
    ::大多数经济学家都认为货币政策的这些工具会影响经济,但他们有时对发生这种情况的确切机制、这些机制的实力以及货币政策的使用方式意见不一。 在我们讨论其中一些问题之前,我们将根据总需求和总供应模式来审查货币政策如何影响经济。 我们的重点将放在开放市场运作、美联储购买或出售联邦债券上。

    Expansionary Monetary Policy
    ::扩大货币扩张政策

    The Fed might pursue an expansionary monetary policy in response to the initial situation shown in Panel (a) of Figure 1 "Expansionary Monetary Policy to Close a Recessionary Gap". An economy with a potential output of YP is operating at Y1; there is a recessionary gap. One possible policy response is to allow the economy to correct this gap on its own, waiting for reductions in nominal wages and other prices to shift the short-run aggregate supply curve SRAS1 to the right until it intersects the aggregate demand curve AD1 at YP. An alternative is a stabilization policy that seeks to increase aggregate demand to AD2 to close the gap. An expansionary monetary policy is one way to achieve such a shift.
    ::美联储可能会针对图1“扩大货币政策以缩小衰退差距”图1(a)小组所示的初始情况采取扩张性货币政策。 具有YP潜在产出的经济体运行于Y1;存在衰退差距。 一种可能的对策是允许经济自行纠正这一差距,等待名义工资和其他价格下降,等待短期总供应曲线SRAS1向右转变,直到它与YP总需求曲线AD1交错。 另一种办法是稳定政策,力求增加对AD2的总需求以缩小这一差距。 扩张性货币政策是实现这一转变的途径之一。

    To carry out an expansionary monetary policy, the Fed will buy bonds, thereby increasing the money supply. That shifts the demand curve for bonds to D2, as illustrated in Panel (b). Bond prices rise to Pb2. The higher price for bonds reduces the interest rate. These changes in the bond market are consistent with the changes in the money market, shown in Panel (c), in which the greater money supply leads to a fall in the interest rate to r2. The lower interest rate stimulates investment. In addition, the lower interest rate reduces the demand for and increases the supply of dollars in the currency market, reducing the exchange rate to E2 in Panel (d). The lower exchange rate will stimulate net exports. The combined impact of greater investment and net exports will shift the aggregate demand curve to the right. The curve shifts by an amount equal to the multiplier times the sum of the initial changes in investment and net exports. In Panel (a), this is shown as a shift to AD2, and the recessionary gap is closed.
    ::为了实施扩张性货币政策,美联储将购买债券,从而增加货币供应。这将将债券需求曲线转向D2,如小组(b)所示。债券价格上升至Pb2。债券价格上升导致利率下降。债券市场的这些变化与货币市场的变化相一致,如小组(c)所示,货币供应增加导致利率下降至r2。利率降低刺激了投资。此外,低利率降低了货币市场对美元的需求并增加了美元的供应,将小组(d)中的汇率降低至E2。较低的汇率将刺激净出口。加大投资和净出口的合并影响将把总需求曲线向右转移。曲线的曲线变化与投资和净出口最初变化的乘数之和相等。在小组(a)中,这表现为向AD2的转变,而衰退差距将缩小。

    lesson content

    In Panel (a), the economy has a recessionary gap YP − Y1. An expansionary monetary policy could seek to close this gap by shifting the aggregate demand curve to AD2. In Panel (b), the Fed buys bonds, shifting the demand curve for bonds to D2 and increasing the price of bonds to Pb2. By buying bonds, the Fed increases the money supply to M′ in Panel (c). The Fed’s action lowers interest rates to r2. The lower interest rate also reduces the demand for and increases the supply of dollars, reducing the exchange rate to E2 in Panel (d). The resulting increases in investment and net exports shift the aggregate demand curve in Panel (a).
    ::在(a)小组中,经济存在YP-Y1.扩张性货币政策,可以通过将总需求曲线转向AD2来缩小这一差距。 在(b)小组中,美联储购买债券,将债券需求曲线转向D2,并将债券价格提高到Pb2。 通过购买债券,美联储在(c)小组中将货币供应增加到M*。 美联储的行动将利率降低到r2。 低利率还减少了对美元的需求,增加了对美元的供应,将小组(d)小组的汇率降低到E2。 结果,投资和净出口的增加改变了小组(a)的总需求曲线。

    Contractionary Monetary Policy
    ::收缩货币政策

    The Fed will generally pursue a contractionary monetary policy when it considers inflation a threat. Suppose, for example, that the economy faces an inflationary gap; the aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply curves intersect to the right of the long-run aggregate supply curve, as shown in Panel (a) of Figure 2 "A Contractionary Monetary Policy to Close an Inflationary Gap".
    ::美联储在认为通货膨胀是一种威胁时,一般会采取紧缩货币政策。 比如,假设经济面临通胀差距;总需求和短期总供给曲线与长期总供给曲线右交错,如图2“缩小通胀差距的紧缩货币政策”中的(a)小组所示。

    In Panel (a), the economy has an inflationary gap Y1 − YP. A contractionary monetary policy could seek to close this gap by shifting the aggregate demand curve to AD2. In Panel (b), the Fed sells bonds, shifting the supply curve for bonds to S2 and lowering the price of bonds to Pb2. The lower price of bonds means a higher interest rate, r2, as shown in Panel (c). The higher interest rate also increases the demand for and decreases the supply of dollars, raising the exchange rate to E2 in Panel (d), which will increase net exports. The decreases in investment and net exports are responsible for decreasing aggregate demand in Panel (a).
    ::在(a)小组中,经济存在Y1至YP的通货膨胀差距。 紧缩货币政策可以通过将总需求曲线改为AD2来缩小这一差距。 在(b)小组中,美联储出售债券,将债券供应曲线改为S2,将债券价格降低到Pb2。 债券价格降低意味着更高的利率,如小组(c)所示,r2。 较高的利率还增加了对美元的需求,减少了对美元的供应,将小组(d)小组中的汇率提高到E2,这将增加净出口。投资和净出口的下降是小组(a)总需求下降的原因。

    To carry out a contractionary policy, the Fed sells bonds. In the bond market, shown in Panel (b) of Figure 2 "A Contractionary Monetary Policy to Close an Inflationary Gap", the supply curve shifts to the right, lowering the price of bonds and increasing the interest rate. In the money market, shown in Panel (c), the Fed’s bond sales reduce the money supply and raise the interest rate. The higher interest rate reduces investment. The higher interest rate also induces a greater demand for dollars as foreigners seek to take advantage of higher interest rates in the United States. The supply of dollars falls; people in the United States are less likely to purchase foreign interest-earning assets now that U.S. assets are paying a higher rate. These changes boost the exchange rate, as shown in Panel (d), which reduces exports and increases imports and thus causes net exports to fall. The contractionary monetary policy thus shifts aggregate demand to the left, by an amount equal to the multiplier times the combined initial changes in investment and net exports, as shown in Panel (a).
    ::为了执行收缩政策,美联储出售债券。在债券市场中,如图2“缩小通货膨胀差距的收缩货币政策”图2(b)小组所示,供应曲线向右转移,降低债券价格,提高利率。在货币市场中,美联储债券销售,如(c)小组所示,减少了货币供应,提高了利率,降低了投资。高利率还导致对美元的需求增加,因为外国人试图利用美国较高的利率。美元供应减少;美国资产支付更高的利率,美国人民购买外国利息收入的可能性降低。这些变化促进了(d)小组所示的汇率,该小组减少出口,增加进口,从而导致净出口下降。(a)小组显示,紧缩货币政策因此将总需求转向左边,其数额相当于投资与净出口合并初始变化的乘数(a)。

    Case in Point: A Brief History of the Greenspan Fed
    ::引文:格林斯潘美联储简史

     

    With the passage of time and the fact that the fallout on the economy turned out to be relatively minor, it is hard in retrospect to realize how scary a situation Alan Greenspan and the Fed faced just two months after his appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. On October 12, 1987, the stock market had its worst day ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508 points, wiping out more than $500 billion in a few hours of feverish trading on Wall Street. That drop represented a loss in value of over 22%. In comparison, the largest daily drop in 2008 of 778 points on September 29, 2008, represented a loss in value of about 7%.
    ::随着时间的流逝,以及经济受到的影响相对而言较小,回想起来很难意识到艾伦·格林斯潘和美联储在被任命为联邦储备委员会主席仅两个月后面临多么可怕的局面。1987年10月12日,股市有史以来最糟糕的一天。道琼斯工业平均跌跌508点,在华尔街几小时的热交易中,耗掉5 000亿美元以上。 下降意味着价值超过22%的损失。 相比之下,2008年9月29日每天下降的778点是7 % 。

    When the Fed faced another huge plunge in stock prices in 1929—also in October—members of the Board of Governors met and decided that no action was necessary. Determined not to repeat the terrible mistake of 1929, one that helped to usher in the Great Depression, Alan Greenspan immediately reassured the country, saying that the Fed would provide adequate liquidity, by buying federal securities, to assure that economic activity would not fall. As it turned out, the damage to the economy was minor and the stock market quickly regained value.
    ::当美联储在1929年再次面临股价暴跌 — — 也是在10月 — — 时,理事会成员国开会决定没有必要采取任何行动。 艾伦·格林斯潘决心不再重犯1929年的可怕错误 — — 帮助迎来大萧条的错误 — — 立即向该国保证,美联储将购买联邦证券,提供充足的流动性,以确保经济活动不会下降。 结果,对经济的破坏很小,股票市场迅速恢复了价值。

    In the fall of 1990, the economy began to slip into recession. The Fed responded with expansionary monetary policy—cutting reserve requirements, lowering the discount rate, and buying Treasury bonds.
    ::1990年秋天,经济开始滑入衰退。 美联储的反应是扩张性货币政策削减储备要求、降低贴现率和购买国库债券。

    Interest rates fell quite quickly in response to the Fed’s actions, but, as is often the case, changes to the components of aggregate demand were slower in coming. Consumption and investment began to rise in 1991, but their growth was weak.  Unemployment continued to rise because growth in output was too slow to keep up with growth in the labor force. It was not until the fall of 1992 that the economy started to pick up steam. This episode demonstrates an important difficulty with stabilization policy: attempts to manipulate aggregate demand achieve shifts in the curve, but with a lag.
    ::由于美联储的行动,利率下降很快,但正如经常发生的那样,总需求组成部分的变化放缓了。 1991年消费和投资开始上升,但增长疲软。 失业率继续上升,因为产出增长太慢,无法跟上劳动力的增长。 直到1992年秋天,经济才开始恢复蒸汽。 这一事件表明稳定政策存在重大困难:操纵总需求的尝试实现了曲线的转变,但滞后了。

    Throughout the rest of the 1990s, with some tightening when the economy seemed to be moving into an inflationary gap and some loosening when the economy seemed to be possibly moving toward a recessionary gap—especially in 1998 and 1999 when parts of Asia experienced financial turmoil and recession and European growth had slowed down—the Fed helped steer what is now referred to as the Goldilocks (not too hot, not too cold, just right) economy.
    ::在整个1990年代的其余时间里,当经济似乎正在进入通货膨胀差距时,随着一些紧缩而有所收紧,当经济似乎可能向衰退差距发展时——特别是在1998年和1999年,亚洲部分地区经历了金融动荡和衰退,欧洲经济增长放缓——一些紧缩,美联储帮助引导了现在所谓的戈狄洛克经济(不是太热,不是太冷,只是正确)。

    The U.S. economy again experienced a mild recession in 2001 under Greenspan. At that time, the Fed systematically conducted expansionary policy. Similar to its response to the 1987 stock market crash, the Fed has been credited with maintaining liquidity following the dot-com stock market crash in early 2001 and the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in September 2001.
    ::2001年,美联储在格林斯潘(Greenspan)统治下再次经历了温和的衰退。 当时,美联储系统实施了扩张政策。 与1987年股市崩溃的反应一样,美联储在2001年初的网-网股票市场崩溃以及2001年9月世界贸易中心和五角大楼遭到袭击后保持流动性也得到了信贷。

    When Greenspan retired in January 2006, many hailed him as the greatest central banker ever. As the economy faltered in 2008 and as the financial crisis unfolded throughout the year, however, the question of how the policies of Greenspan’s Fed played into the current difficulties took center stage. Testifying before Congress in October 2008, he said that the country faces a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami,” and he admitted, “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in their firms.” The criticisms he has faced are twofold: that the very low interest rates used to fight the 2001 recession and maintained for too long fueled the real estate bubble, and that he did not promote appropriate regulations to deal with the new financial instruments that were created in the early 2000s. While supporting some additional regulations when he testified before Congress, he also warned that overreacting could be dangerous: “We have to recognize that this is almost surely a once-in-a-century phenomenon, and, in that regard, to realize the types of regulation that would prevent this from happening in the future are so onerous as to basically suppress the growth rate in the economy and . . . the standards of living of the American people.”
    ::当格林斯潘于2006年1月退休时,许多人称他为有史以来最大的央行行长。 当2008年经济疲软,金融危机全年不断发生时,格林斯潘的美联储政策如何在目前困难中扮演了核心角色。 2008年10月,他在国会作证,表示该国面临“世纪以来的信用海啸 ” , 他承认,“我错误地认为,各组织,特别是银行和其他人的私利,如它们最有能力保护自己的股东和企业的股本。 ”他所面临的批评是双重的:用于对抗2001年衰退并维持太久的低利率给房地产泡沫火上浇油。 他没有促进适当的监管来应对20世纪初创造的新金融工具。 他在国会作证时支持一些额外的监管,但他也警告说,过度反应可能很危险 : “ 我们必须认识到,这几乎肯定是一个世纪内的历史现象,而且在这方面,要实现美国经济的大幅增长标准 — — — 从而从根本上阻止了美国人民的未来增长。 。 ”

    Advantages of the Fed
    ::美联储的优势

    The Fed has some obvious advantages in its conduct of monetary policy. The two policy-making bodies, the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), are small and largely independent from other political institutions. Therefore, these bodies can reach decisions quickly and implement them immediately. Their relative independence from the political process, together with the fact that they meet in secret, allows them to operate outside the glare of publicity that might otherwise be focused on bodies that wield such enormous power.
    ::美联储在执行货币政策方面有一些明显的优势。 两个决策机构 — — 董事会和联邦开放市场委员会(FOMC) — — 规模小,基本上独立于其他政治机构。 因此,这些机构可以迅速做出决定并立即执行。 它们相对独立于政治进程,同时秘密会面,使得它们可以在公开的外表之外运作,否则它们可能集中在拥有如此巨大权力的机构上。

    Despite the apparent ease with which the Fed can conduct monetary policy, it still faces difficulties in its efforts to stabilize the economy. We examine some of the problems and uncertainties associated with monetary policy in this section.
    ::尽管美联储显然可以轻松地实施货币政策,但它在稳定经济的努力中仍然面临困难。 我们在本节审查了与货币政策有关的一些问题和不确定因素。

    Lags
    ::带带

    Perhaps the greatest obstacle facing the Fed, or any other central bank, is the problem of lags. It is easy enough to show a recessionary gap on a graph and then to show how monetary policy can shift aggregate demand and close the gap. In the real world, however, it may take several months before anyone even realizes that a particular macroeconomic problem is occurring. When monetary authorities become aware of a problem, they can act quickly to inject reserves into the system or to withdraw reserves from it. Once that is done, however, it may be a year or more before the action affects aggregate demand.
    ::也许美联储或任何其他央行面临的最大障碍是滞后问题。 很容易在图表上显示衰退差距,然后显示货币政策如何改变总需求并缩小差距。 但在现实世界中,人们甚至可能要花几个月时间才会意识到某个宏观经济问题正在发生。 当货币当局意识到一个问题时,他们可以迅速采取行动,将储备注入到体系中或从体系中提取储备。 但是,一旦这样做,行动就会影响总体需求。

    The delay between the time a macroeconomic problem arises and the time at which policymakers become aware of it is called a recognition lag. The 1990–1991 recession, for example, began in July 1990. It was not until late October that members of the FOMC noticed a slowing in economic activity, which prompted a stimulative monetary policy. In contrast, the most recent recession began in December 2007, and Fed easing began in September 2007.
    ::从宏观经济问题出现到决策者意识到这一问题被称之为承认滞后的时期之间的拖延。 比如,1990-1991年的衰退始于1990年7月,直到10月底,FOMC成员才注意到经济活动放缓,这促使刺激性货币政策。 相反,最近的衰退始于2007年12月,而美联储宽松始于2007年9月。

    Recognition lags stem largely from problems in collecting economic data. First, data are available only after the conclusion of a particular period. Preliminary estimates of real GDP, for example, are released about a month after the end of a quarter. Thus, a change that occurs early in a quarter will not be reflected in the data until several months later. Second, estimates of economic indicators are subject to revision. The first estimates of real GDP in the third quarter of 1990, for example, showed it increasing. Not until several months had passed did revised estimates show that a recession had begun. And finally, different indicators can lead to different interpretations. Data on employment and retail sales might be pointing in one direction while data on housing starts and industrial production might be pointing in another. It is one thing to look back after a few years have elapsed and determine whether the economy was expanding or contracting. It is quite another to decipher changes in real GDP when one is right in the middle of events. Even in a world brimming with computer-generated data on the economy, recognition lags can be substantial.
    ::承认差距主要来自收集经济数据方面的问题。首先,数据只有在特定时期结束后才能获得。例如,对实际国内生产总值的初步估计大约在四分之一结束后一个月后公布。因此,四分之一早期的变化将无法在数据中反映出来,直到几个月后。第二,对经济指标的估计有待修订。例如,1990年第三季度对实际国内生产总值的初步估计显示,情况在增加。直到几个月前,订正估计显示衰退已经开始。最后,不同的指标可能导致不同的解释。关于就业和零售销售的数据可能指向一个方向,而关于住房开始和工业生产的数据可能指向另一个方向。在几年后回顾并确定经济是否正在扩大或缩小,这是一回事。在当时处于事态中的情况下,对实际国内生产总值的第一次估计显示,情况正在上升。即使在一个与计算机生成的经济数据交织的世界中,承认滞后的情况也可能是巨大的。

    Only after policymakers recognize there is a problem can they take action to deal with it. The delay between the time at which a problem is recognized and the time at which a policy to deal with it is enacted is called the implementation lag. For monetary policy changes, the implementation lag is quite short. The FOMC meets eight times per year, and its members may confer between meetings through conference calls. Once the FOMC determines that a policy change is in order, the required open-market operations to buy or sell federal bonds can be put into effect immediately.
    ::只有在决策者认识到存在问题之后,他们才能采取行动解决问题。 问题被承认的时间与制定解决问题的政策的时间之间的延迟被称为执行滞后。 对于货币政策变化来说,执行滞后相当短。 金融监管委员会每年开会八次,其成员可以通过电话会议在会议之间进行交谈。 一旦金融监管委员会确定政策变化是有序的,购买或出售联邦债券所需的开放市场业务就可以立即生效。

    Policymakers at the Fed still have to contend with the impact lag, the delay between the time a policy is enacted and the time that policy has its impact on the economy.
    ::美联储的决策者仍不得不面对影响滞后、政策颁布时间与政策对经济产生影响时间之间的拖延。

    The impact lag for monetary policy occurs for several reasons. First, it takes some time for the deposit multiplier process to work itself out. The Fed can inject new reserves into the economy immediately, but the deposit expansion process of bank lending will need time to have its full effect on the money supply. Interest rates are affected immediately, but the money supply grows more slowly. Second, firms need some time to respond to the monetary policy with new investment spending—if they respond at all. Third, a monetary change is likely to affect the exchange rate, but that translates into a change in net exports only after some delay. Thus, the shift in the aggregate demand curve due to initial changes in investment and in net exports occurs after some delay. Finally, the multiplier process of an expenditure change takes time to unfold. It is only as incomes start to rise that consumption spending picks up.
    ::货币政策影响滞后的原因有几个。 首先,存款倍增效应过程本身需要一些时间才能奏效。 美联储可以立即向经济注入新的储备,但银行贷款的存款扩张过程需要时间才能对货币供应产生充分的影响。 利率受到直接影响,但货币供应却增长较慢。 其次,公司需要一些时间以新的投资支出来应对货币政策 — — 如果它们做出回应的话。 第三,货币变化可能会影响汇率,但只有在一些延迟之后才会转化为净出口的变化。 因此,由于投资的初始变化和净出口的初始变化,总需求曲线的变化会在一些延迟之后发生。 最后,支出的倍增过程需要一段时间才能展开。 只有在收入开始增加消费支出时,消费支出才开始增加。

    The problem of lags suggests that monetary policy should respond not to statistical reports of economic conditions in the recent past but to conditions expected to exist in the future. In justifying the imposition of a contractionary monetary policy early in 1994, when the economy still had a recessionary gap, Greenspan indicated that the Fed expected a one-year impact lag. The policy initiated in 1994 was a response not to the economic conditions thought to exist at the time but to conditions expected to exist in 1995. When the Fed used contractionary policy in the middle of 1999, it argued that it was doing so to forestall a possible increase in inflation. When the Fed began easing in September 2007, it argued that it was doing so to forestall adverse effects to the economy of falling housing prices. In these examples, the Fed appeared to be looking forward. It must do so with information and forecasts that are far from perfect.
    ::滞后问题表明货币政策不应该对近期经济形势的统计报告作出反应,而应该对预期未来会出现的情况作出反应。格林斯潘指出,1994年初,当经济仍然处于衰退差距时,美联储将实施紧缩货币政策,格林斯潘表示,美联储预期会出现一年的影响滞后。1994年启动的政策不是对当时认为存在的经济状况,而是对1995年预计存在的条件的反应。美联储在1999年中期采用收缩政策时,认为这样做是为了防止通货膨胀的可能上升。 2007年9月美联储开始放松政策时,美联储认为这样做是为了防止对房价下跌的经济产生不利影响。在这些例子中,美联储似乎期待未来。 美联储必须利用远非完美的信息和预测来这样做。

    Estimates of the length of time required for the impact lag to work itself out range from six months to two years. Worse, the length of the lag can vary—when they take action, policymakers cannot know whether their choices will affect the economy within a few months or within a few years. Because of the uncertain length of the impact lag, efforts to stabilize the economy through monetary policy could be destabilizing. Suppose, for example, that the Fed responds to a recessionary gap with an expansionary policy but that by the time the policy begins to affect aggregate demand, the economy has already returned to potential GDP. The policy designed to correct a recessionary gap could create an inflationary gap. Similarly, a shift to a contractionary policy in response to an inflationary gap might not affect aggregate demand until after a self-correction process had already closed the gap. In that case, the policy could plunge the economy into a recession.
    ::更糟糕的是,滞后期的长度可能各不相同 — — 当他们采取行动时,决策者无法知道他们的选择是否会在几个月内或几年内影响经济。 由于影响滞后的时间长度不确定,通过货币政策稳定经济的努力可能会破坏稳定。 比如,假设美联储通过扩张政策应对衰退差距,但到政策开始影响总需求时,经济已经恢复到潜在的GDP。 旨在纠正衰退差距的政策可能会造成通胀差距。 同样,在自我调整过程已经弥合了差距之前,转向紧缩政策应对通胀差距可能不会影响总需求。 在这种情况下,政策可能使经济陷入衰退。

    Choosing Targets
    ::选择目标

    In attempting to manage the economy, on what macroeconomic variables should the Fed base its policies? It must have some target, or set of targets, that it wants to achieve. The failure of the economy to achieve one of the Fed’s targets would then trigger a shift in monetary policy. The choice of a target, or set of targets, is a crucial one for monetary policy. Possible targets include interest rates, money growth rates, and the price level or expected changes in the price level.
    ::在试图管理经济时,美联储应该根据什么宏观经济变量来制定其政策?它必须拥有它想要达到的目标或一系列目标。 经济不能实现美联储的目标之一就会引发货币政策的转变。 选择一个目标或一组目标对于货币政策至关重要。 可能的目标包括利率、货币增长率、价格水平或价格水平的预期变化。

    Interest Rates
    ::利率 利率

    Interest rates, particularly the federal funds rate, played a key role in recent Fed policy. The FOMC does not decide to increase or decrease the money supply. Rather, it engages in operations to nudge the federal funds rate up or down.
    ::利率,特别是联邦基金利率,在最近的美联储政策中起到了关键作用。 FOMC并不决定增加或减少货币供应。 相反,FOMC参与将联邦基金利率上下调的行动。

    Up until August 1997, it had instructed the trading desk at the New York Federal Reserve Bank to conduct open-market operations in a way that would either maintain, increase, or ease the current “degree of pressure” on the reserve positions of banks. That degree of pressure was reflected by the federal funds rate; if existing reserves were less than the amount banks wanted to hold, then the bidding for the available supply would send the federal funds rate up. If reserves were plentiful, then the federal funds rate would tend to decline. When the Fed increased the degree of pressure on reserves, it sold bonds, thus reducing the supply of reserves and increasing the federal funds rate. The Fed decreased the degree of pressure on reserves by buying bonds, thus injecting new reserves into the system and reducing the federal funds rate.
    ::直到1997年8月为止,它指示纽约联邦储备银行的贸易台以维持、增加或减轻目前对银行储备状况的“压力程度”的方式进行开放市场业务,这种压力的程度反映在联邦资金利率上;如果现有储备低于银行想要持有的金额,那么现有供应的投标就会使联邦资金利率上升;如果储备充足,联邦资金利率就会下降;当美联储增加对储备的压力程度时,它出售债券,从而减少储备的供应并增加联邦资金利率;美联储通过购买债券,从而降低对储备的压力程度,从而向系统注入新的储备并降低联邦资金利率。

    The current operating procedures of the Fed focus explicitly on interest rates. At each of its eight meetings during the year, the FOMC sets a specific target or target range for the federal funds rate. When the Fed lowers the target for the federal funds rate, it buys bonds. When it raises the target for the federal funds rate, it sells bonds.
    ::美联储目前的业务程序明确关注利率问题,在全年举行的八次会议上,美联储为联邦基金利率设定了具体目标或目标范围。 当美联储降低联邦基金利率目标时,美联储就购买债券。 当美联储提高联邦基金利率目标时,美联储出售债券。

    Money Growth Rates
    ::货币增长率

    Until 2000, the Fed was required to announce to Congress at the beginning of each year its target for money growth that year and each report dutifully did so. At the same time, the Fed report would mention that its money growth targets were benchmarks based on historical relationships rather than guides for policy. As soon as the legal requirement to report targets for money growth ended, the Fed stopped doing so. Since in recent years the Fed has placed more importance on the federal funds rate, it must adjust the money supply in order to move the federal funds rate to the level it desires. As a result, the money growth targets tended to fall by the wayside, even over the last decade in which they were being reported. Instead, as data on economic conditions unfolded, the Fed made, and continues to make, adjustments in order to affect the federal funds interest rate.
    ::到2000年为止,美联储被要求在每年年初向国会宣布当年的货币增长目标,每份报告都要尽忠职守地这样做。 与此同时,美联储的报告会提到,其货币增长目标是基于历史关系的基准,而不是政策指南。 一旦关于报告货币增长目标的法律要求结束,美联储就不再这样做了。 近年来,美联储更加重视联邦资金利率,必须调整货币供应,以便把联邦资金利率提高到它所希望的水平。 结果,货币增长目标往往偏偏向于边际,甚至于上报的最近十年。 相反,随着经济状况数据的发展,美联储已经做出并继续做出调整,以便影响联邦资金利率。

    Price Level or Expected Changes in the Price Level
    ::物价水平或物价水平预期变化

    Some economists argue that the Fed’s primary goal should be price stability. If so, an obvious possible target is the price level itself. The Fed could target a particular price level or a particular rate of change in the price level and adjust its policies accordingly. If, for example, the Fed sought an inflation rate of 2%, then it could shift to a contractionary policy whenever the rate rose above 2%. One difficulty with such a policy, of course, is that the Fed would be responding to past economic conditions with policies that are not likely to affect the economy for a year or more. Another difficulty is that inflation could be rising when the economy is experiencing a recessionary gap. An example of this, mentioned earlier, occurred in 1990 when inflation increased due to the seemingly temporary increase in oil prices following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The Fed faced a similar situation in the first half of 2008 when oil prices were again rising. If the Fed undertakes contractionary monetary policy at such times, then its efforts to reduce the inflation rate could worsen the recessionary gap.
    ::一些经济学家认为美联储的首要目标应该是物价稳定。 如果是这样的话,一个显而易见的可能目标就是物价水平本身。 美联储可以针对特定价格水平或价格水平的特定变化率并相应调整其政策。 比如,如果美联储寻求2%的通胀率,那么当利率上升超过2 % 时,美联储就可以转向紧缩政策。 当然,这种政策的一个难题是美联储将用不会影响经济一年或一年以上的政策来应对过去的经济状况。 另一个困难是当经济出现衰退时通货膨胀可能会上升。 前面提到的一个例子是1990年,在伊拉克入侵科威特之后,油价似乎暂时上涨,导致通胀上升。 2008年上半年,当油价再次上涨时,美联储面临类似的情况。 如果美联储在这样的时候采取紧缩货币政策,那么它降低通胀率的努力就会使衰退差距更加严重。

    The solution proposed by Chairman Bernanke, who is an advocate of inflation rate targeting, is to focus not on the past rate of inflation or even the current rate of inflation, but on the expected rate of inflation, as revealed by various indicators, over the next year.
    ::伯南克主席主张确定通货膨胀率,他提出的解决办法是,不要把重点放在过去的通货膨胀率甚至目前的通货膨胀率上,而要放在各种指标显示的下一年的预期通货膨胀率上。

    By 2010, the central banks of about 30 developed or developing countries had adopted specific inflation targeting. Inflation targeters include Australia, Brazil, Canada, Great Britain, New Zealand, South Korea, and, most recently, Turkey and Indonesia. A study by economist Carl Walsh found that inflationary experiences among developed countries have been similar, regardless of whether their central banks had explicit or more flexible inflation targets. For developing countries, however, he found that inflation targeting enhanced macroeconomic performance, in terms of both lower inflation and greater overall stability.  Carl E. Walsh, “Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?,” International Finance 12, no. 2 (2009): 195–233.
    ::到2010年,大约30个发达国家或发展中国家的央行采用了具体的通胀目标。 通胀目标对象包括澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大、英国、新西兰、韩国以及最近的土耳其和印度尼西亚。 经济学家卡尔·沃尔什(Carl Walsh)的研究发现,发达国家的通胀经验是相似的,不管它们的央行有明确的通胀目标还是更灵活的通胀目标。 但是,对于发展中国家来说,他发现通胀既针对较低的通胀,也针对更大的总体稳定性,针对宏观经济绩效的提高。 卡尔·沃尔什(Carl E. Walsh),“通胀目标:我们知道什么? ” , 国际金融12,第2号(2009年):195-233。

    Political Pressures
    ::政治压力

    The institutional relationship between the leaders of the Fed and the executive and legislative branches of the federal government is structured to provide for the Fed’s independence. Members of the Board of Governors are appointed by the president, with confirmation by the Senate, but the 14-year terms of office provide a considerable degree of insulation from political pressure. A president exercises greater influence in the choice of the chairman of the Board of Governors; that appointment carries a four-year term. Neither the president nor Congress has any direct say over the selection of the presidents of Federal Reserve district banks. They are chosen by their individual boards of directors with the approval of the Board of Governors.
    ::美联储领导人与联邦政府行政部门和立法部门之间的机构关系结构是为了保障美联储的独立性。 董事会成员由总统任命,并经参议院认可,但14年的任期在很大程度上可以抵御政治压力。 总统在选择董事会主席时施加更大的影响力,任期为4年。 总统和国会都对联邦储备银行区行长的遴选没有任何直接的发言权。 他们由各自的董事会在得到董事会批准后选出。

    The degree of independence that central banks around the world have varies. A central bank is considered to be more independent if it is insulated from the government by such factors as longer-term appointments of its governors and fewer requirements to finance government budget deficits. Studies in the 1980s and early 1990s showed that, in general, greater central bank independence was associated with lower average inflation and that there was no systematic relationship between central bank independence and other indicators of economic performance, such as real GDP growth or unemployment. See, for example, Alberto Alesina and Lawrence H. Summers, “Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 25 , no. 2 (May 1993): 151–62. By the rankings used in those studies, the Fed was considered quite independent, second only to Switzerland and the German Bundesbank at the time. Perhaps as a result of such findings, a number of countries have granted greater independence to their central banks in the last decade. The charter for the European Central Bank, which began operations in 1998, was modeled on that of the German Bundesbank. Its charter states explicitly that its primary objective is to maintain price stability. Also, since 1998, central bank independence has increased in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.
    ::20世纪80年代和90年代初的研究显示,总体而言,中央银行更大的独立性与平均通货膨胀率较低有关,中央银行的独立性与其他经济表现指标(如实际GDP增长或失业)之间没有系统性的关系。 例如,见Alberto Alesina和Lawrence H. Summers, “中央银行独立和宏观经济表现:一些比较证据”,《货币、信贷和银行学杂志》25,第2期(1993年5月):第151-62期(1993年5月):第151-62期)。 根据这些研究所使用的排名,美联储被认为相当独立,当时仅次于瑞士和德国联邦银行。也许由于这些调查的结果,一些国家在过去十年中给予其中央银行更大的独立性。1998年开始运行的欧洲中央银行章程以德国联邦银行为模范。 其章程明确规定,其主要目标是维持1998年以来的加拿大中央银行和加拿大中央银行独立。

    While the Fed is formally insulated from the political process, the men and women who serve on the Board of Governors and the FOMC are human beings. They are not immune to the pressures that can be placed on them by members of Congress and by the president. The chairman of the Board of Governors meets regularly with the president and the executive staff and also reports to and meets with congressional committees that deal with economic matters.
    ::虽然美联储正式脱离政治进程,但在理事会和FOMC任职的男女都是人,他们不能免受国会议员和总统可能施加的压力,理事会主席定期会见总统和行政人员,并向处理经济问题的国会委员会报告和会晤。

    The Fed was created by the Congress; its charter could be altered—or even revoked—by that same body. The Fed is in the somewhat paradoxical situation of having to cooperate with the legislative and executive branches in order to preserve its independence.
    ::美联储是由国会创立的;其章程可能会被同一个机构改变,甚至废除。 美联储处于某种自相矛盾的境地,即必须与立法和行政部门合作以保持其独立性。

    The Degree of Impact on the Economy
    ::对经济的影响程度

    The problem of lags suggests that the Fed does not know with certainty when its policies will work their way through the financial system to have an impact on macroeconomic performance. The Fed also does not know with certainty to what extent its policy decisions will affect the macroeconomy.
    ::滞后问题表明,美联储不确定其政策何时能通过金融体系对宏观经济绩效产生影响。 美联储也不确定其政策决定会对宏观经济产生多大影响。

    For example, investment can be particularly volatile. An effort by the Fed to reduce aggregate demand in the face of an inflationary gap could be partially offset by rising investment demand. But, generally, contractionary policies do tend to slow down the economy as if the Fed were “pulling on a rope.” That may not be the case with expansionary policies. Since investment depends crucially on expectations about the future, business leaders must be optimistic about economic conditions in order to expand production facilities and buy new equipment. That optimism might not exist in a recession. Instead, the pessimism that might prevail during an economic slump could prevent lower interest rates from stimulating investment. An effort to stimulate the economy through monetary policy could be like “pushing on a string.” The central bank could push with great force by buying bonds and engaging in quantitative easing, but little might happen to the economy at the other end of the string.
    ::比如,投资可能特别不稳定。 面对通胀差距,美联储削减总需求的努力可能会被不断上升的投资需求部分抵消。 但总体而言,紧缩政策确实会像美联储“拉绳子 ” 一样减缓经济。 扩张性政策可能不会如此。 由于投资主要取决于对未来的期望,商业领袖必须乐观地看待经济条件,以扩大生产设施和购买新设备。 这种乐观在衰退中可能并不存在。 相反,在经济萧条期间盛行的悲观主义可能会阻止较低的利率刺激投资。 通过货币政策刺激经济的努力可能就像“一丝不苟 ” 。 中央银行可以通过购买债券和进行量化宽松来大力推动经济。 但是在经济的另一端几乎不会发生。

    What if the Fed cannot bring about a change in interest rates? A liquidity trap is said to exist when a change in monetary policy has no effect on interest rates. This would be the case if the money demand curve were horizontal at some interest rate, as shown in Figure 3 "A Liquidity Trap". If a change in the money supply from M to M′ cannot change interest rates, then, unless there is some other change in the economy, there is no reason for investment or any other component of aggregate demand to change. Hence, the traditional monetary policy is rendered totally ineffective; its degree of impact on the economy is nil. At an interest rate of zero, since bonds cease to be an attractive alternative to money, which is at least useful for transactions purposes, there would be a liquidity trap.
    ::如果美联储不能带来利率的改变呢?当货币政策的改变对利率没有影响时,流动性陷阱据说就存在了。 如果货币需求曲线以某种利率水平水平水平,正如图3“流动性陷阱”所示,情况就是如此。 如果货币供应从M到M”不能改变利率,那么,除非经济出现其他变化,否则没有理由投资或总需求的任何其他组成部分发生变化。 因此,传统货币政策完全无效;对经济的影响程度为零。 如果利率为零,债券不再是货币的有吸引力的替代物,至少对交易有用,则会出现流动性陷阱。

                             A Liquidity Trap 

    When a change in the money supply has no effect on the interest rate, the economy is said to be in a liquidity trap.

    With the federal funds rate in the United States close to zero at the end of 2008, the possibility that the country was in or nearly in a liquidity trap could not be dismissed. As discussed in the introduction to the chapter, at the same time the Fed lowered the federal funds rate to close to zero, it mentioned that it intended to pursue additional, nontraditional measures. The Fed seeks to make firms and consumers want to spend now by using a tool not aimed at reducing the interest rate, since it cannot reduce the interest rate below zero. It  shifts its focus to the price level and to avoiding expected deflation. For example, if the public expects the price level to fall by 2% and the interest rate is zero, by holding money, the money is actually earning a positive real interest rate of 2%—the difference between the nominal interest rate and the expected deflation rate. Since the nominal rate of interest cannot fall below zero (Who would, for example, want to lend at an interest rate below zero when lending is risky whereas cash is not? In short, it does not make sense to lend $10 and get less than $10 back.), expected deflation makes holding cash very attractive and discourages spending since people will put off purchases because goods and services are expected to get cheaper.
    ::2008年底,美国联邦资金利率接近于零,因此,不能排除美国处于或接近流动性陷阱的可能性。 正如本章导言中所讨论的那样,在美联储将联邦资金利率降低到接近零的同时,美联储提到它打算采取额外的非传统措施。美联储试图让公司和消费者现在通过不以降低利率为目的的工具来进行支出,因为它不能将利率降低到零以下;它把重点转移到价格水平上,避免预期的通缩。例如,如果公众预期价格水平下降2%,而利率为零,则美联储实际上将联邦资金利率降低到接近零,同时美联储提到它打算采取额外的非传统措施。 美联储试图让公司和消费者利用一个不旨在降低利率的工具来让公司和消费者现在开支,因为它不能将利率降低到零以下,因为利率降低到零以下,而现金却不降低到零以下。 简而言之,贷款10美元和回调不到10美元是没有道理的。 比如,预期通缩会使现金保持非常有吸引力,并且抑制支出,因为人们会因为购买商品和服务会降低价格。

    To combat this “wait-and-see” mentality, the Fed or another central bank, using a strategy referred to as quantitative easing, must convince the public that it will keep interest rates very low by providing substantial reserves for as long as is necessary to avoid deflation. In other words, it is aimed at creating expected inflation. For example, at the Fed’s October 2003 meeting, it announced that it would keep the federal funds rate at 1% for “a considerable period.” When the Fed lowered the rate to between 0% and 0.25% in December 2008, it added that “the committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.” After working so hard to convince economic players that it will not tolerate inflation above 2%, the Fed, when in such a situation, must convince the public that it will tolerate inflation, but of course not too much! If it is successful, this extraordinary form of expansionary monetary policy will lead to increased purchases of goods and services, compared to what they would have been with expected deflation. Also, by providing banks with considerable liquidity, the Fed is hoping to encourage them to lend.
    ::为了打击这种“观望”心态,美联储或其他央行必须使用量化宽松战略,让公众相信它将通过提供避免通缩所需的大量储备来保持非常低的利率。 换句话说,它的目的是制造预期的通货膨胀。 比如,在2003年10月美联储会议上,美联储宣布它将在“相当长的时期”将联邦资金利率保持在1%。 2008年12月美联储将利率降低到0 % 至0.25%之间时,它补充说 , “ 委员会预计,疲软的经济状况可能会在一段时间内要求特别低的联邦资金利率水平 ” 。 美联储在如此努力地说服经济参与者它不会容忍超过2 % 的通胀之后,在这样的情况下,美联储必须说服公众它容忍通胀,但当然不会太多! 如果它成功的话,这种超乎寻常的扩张性货币政策将会导致与预期的通缩相比,增加货物和服务的采购量。 此外,通过向银行提供大量流动性,美联储希望鼓励它们贷款。

    The Japanese economy provides an interesting modern example of a country that attempted quantitative easing. With a recessionary gap starting in the early 1990s and deflation in most years from 1995 on, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, began to lower the call money rate (equivalent to the federal funds rate in the United States), reaching near zero by the late 1990s. With growth still languishing, Japan appeared to be in a traditional liquidity trap. In late 1999, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain a zero interest rate policy for the foreseeable future, and in March 2001 it officially began a policy of quantitative easing. In 2006, with the price level rising modestly, Japan ended quantitative easing and began increasing the call rate again. It should be noted that the government simultaneously engaged in expansionary fiscal policy.
    ::日本经济为一个试图量化宽松的国家提供了一个有趣的现代例子。 随着从1990年代初开始的衰退差距和1995年以来大部分年份的通缩,日本央行日本央行开始降低调用货币的利率(相当于美国联邦资金利率 ) , 到1990年代后期接近零。 增长仍然疲软,日本似乎陷入了传统的流动性陷阱。 1999年底,日本银行宣布它将在可预见的未来维持零利率政策,并于2001年3月正式开始实行量化宽松政策。 2006年,随着物价水平的适度上升,日本结束了量化宽松,并开始再次提高调用利率。 应该指出,日本政府同时参与扩张性财政政策。

    How well did these policies work in Japan? The economy began to grow modestly in 2003, though deflation between 1% and 2% remained. Some researchers feel that the Bank of Japan ended quantitative easing too early. Also, delays in implementing the policy, as well as delays in restructuring the banking sector, exacerbated Japan’s problems.“Bringing an End to Deflation under the New Monetary Policy Framework,” OECD Economic Surveys: Japan 2008 4 (April 2008): 49–61 and Mark M. Spiegel, “Did Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan Work?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2006 , no. 28 (October 20, 2006): 1–3.
    ::这些政策在日本效果如何? 2003年,日本经济开始温和增长,尽管1 % 至2 % 之间的通货紧缩仍然存在。 一些研究人员认为日本银行结束量化宽松的时机还太早。 此外,政策执行的拖延以及银行部门重组的拖延加剧了日本的问题。 “根据新货币政策框架结束通胀 ” 经合组织经济调查:日本2008年4月:49-61和马克·斯皮格尔,“日本银行是否做了量化宽松? ” FRBSF 2006年第28号经济信件(2006年10月20日):1-3。

    Fed Chairman Bernanke and other Fed officials have argued that the Fed is also engaged in credit easing. Ben S. Bernanke, “The Crisis and the Policy Response” (Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, England, January 13, 2009) and Janet L. Yellen, “U.S. Monetary Policy Objectives in the Short Run and the Long Run” (speech, Allied Social Sciences Association annual meeting, San Francisco, California, January 4, 2009). Credit easing is a strategy that involves the extension of central bank lending to influence more broadly the proper functioning of credit markets and to improve liquidity. The specific new credit facilities that the Fed has created were discussed in the Case in Point in the chapter on the nature and creation of money. In general, the Fed is hoping that these new credit facilities will improve liquidity in a variety of credit markets, ranging from those used by money market mutual funds to those involved in student and car loans.
    ::美联储主席伯南克和其他美联储官员都认为美联储也参与信用宽松。 本·贝南克(Ben S. Bernanke),“危机与政策应对 ” ( Stamp 讲座,伦敦经济学院,伦敦,英国,2009年1月13日)和珍妮特·叶伦(Janet L. Yellen),“美国短期和长期货币政策目标 ” ( Speech,联合社会科学协会年会,加利福尼亚州旧金山,2009年1月4日 ) 。 信用宽松是一个战略,它涉及扩大央行贷款以更广泛地影响信用市场的适当运作,改善流动性。 美联储创建的具体新信贷便利在货币性质和创造的章节“焦点”中得到了讨论。 总体而言,美联储希望这些新信贷机制将改善各种信用市场的流动性,从货币市场共同基金到学生和汽车贷款参与者的流动性。

    Rational Expectations
    ::理性预期

    One hypothesis suggests that monetary policy may affect the price level but not real GDP. The rational expectations hypothesis states that people use all available information to make forecasts about future economic activity and the price level, and they adjust their behavior to these forecasts.
    ::一种假设认为货币政策可能会影响物价水平,但不会影响实际GDP。 理性预期假设指出人们利用所有现有信息预测未来经济活动和物价水平,并调整行为以适应这些预测。

    Figure 4 "Monetary Policy and Rational Expectations" uses the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to show the implications of the rational expectations argument for monetary policy. Suppose the economy is operating at YP, as illustrated by point A. An increase in the money supply boosts aggregate demand to AD2. In the analysis we have explored thus far, the shift in aggregate demand would move the economy to a higher level of real GDP and create an inflationary gap. That, in turn, would put upward pressure on wages and other prices, shifting the short-run aggregate supply curve to SRAS2 and moving the economy to point B, closing the inflationary gap in the long run. The rational expectations hypothesis, however, suggests a quite different interpretation.
    ::图4 “货币政策和合理预期”使用总需求和总供给模型来显示合理预期对货币政策的影响。 如果经济运行在YP,如A点所示。 货币供应的增加刺激了对AD2的总需求。 在我们迄今所探讨的分析中,总需求的变化将使经济向实际GDP的更高水平转移,并造成通胀差距。 这反过来又会给工资和其他价格带来上扬压力,将短期总供给曲线转向SRAS2,并将经济推向B点,长期缩小通胀差距。 但是,理性的预期假设却表明一种截然不同的解释。

                        Monetary Policy and Rational Expectations
    ::货币政策和合理预期

    Suppose the economy is operating at point A and that individuals have rational expectations. They calculate that an expansionary monetary policy undertaken at price level P1 will raise prices to P2. They adjust their expectations—and wage demands—accordingly, quickly shifting the short-run aggregate supply curve to SRAS2. The result is a movement along the long-run aggregate supply curve LRAS to point B, with no change in real GDP.
    ::假设经济是在A点运作,并且个人有合理的预期。 他们计算,以P1价格水平实施的扩张性货币政策将把价格提高到P2, 他们调整他们的预期 — — 以及工资需求 — — 也就是说,他们迅速将短期总供应曲线转换为SRAS2。 结果是沿着长期总供应曲线LASS向B点移动,实际GDP没有变化。

    Suppose people observe the initial monetary policy change undertaken when the economy is at point A and calculate that the increase in the money supply will ultimately drive the price level up to point B. Anticipating this change in prices, people adjust their behavior. For example, if the increase in the price level from P1 to P2 is a 10% change, workers will anticipate that the prices they pay will rise 10%, and they will demand 10% higher wages. Their employers, anticipating that the prices they will receive will also rise, will agree to pay those higher wages. As nominal wages increase, the short-run aggregate supply curve immediately shifts to SRAS2. The result is an upward movement along the long-run aggregate supply curve, LRAS. There is no change in real GDP. The monetary policy has no effect, other than its impact on the price level. This rational expectations argument relies on wages and prices being sufficiently flexible—not sticky, as described in an earlier chapter—so that the change in expectations will allow the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift quickly to SRAS2.
    ::假设人们观察在经济处于A点时采取的初始货币政策变化,并计算货币供应的增加最终会推动价格水平达到B点。预测价格的这一变化,人们就会调整自己的行为。例如,如果价格水平从P1到P2的上涨是10%的变化,工人就会预计他们支付的价格将上涨10 %,他们会要求提高工资10 %。他们的雇主预计他们将会得到的价格也会上涨,会同意支付更高的工资。随着名义工资的增加,短期总供应曲线将立即转移到SRAS2。 结果是沿着长期总供应曲线(LASS)上升,实际国内生产总值没有变化。货币政策除了对价格水平的影响外没有效果。这一合理的预期论点依赖于工资和价格的足够灵活性,而不是像前一章所描述的那样粘糊口。因此,预期的变化将使短期总供应曲线迅速转向SRAS2。

    One important implication of the rational expectations argument is that a contractionary monetary policy could be painless. Suppose the economy is at point B in Figure 11.5 "Monetary Policy and Rational Expectations", and the Fed reduces the money supply in order to shift the aggregate demand curve back to AD1. In the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, the result would be a recession. But in a rational expectations world, people’s expectations change, the short-run aggregate supply immediately shifts to the right, and the economy moves painlessly down its long-run aggregate supply curve LRAS to point A. Those who support the rational expectations hypothesis, however, also tend to argue that monetary policy should not be used as a tool of stabilization policy.
    ::理性预期论点的一个重要影响是紧缩货币政策可能是无痛的。 假设经济位于图11.5“货币政策和合理预期”的B点,而美联储则减少货币供应,以便把总需求曲线转回AD1。 在总需求和总供应模式下,结果将是衰退。 但在理性预期世界中,人们的期望会发生变化,短期总供应会立即转向右翼,而经济会无痛地下降其长期总供应曲线LABS(LEAS)来指向A。 但是,那些支持合理预期假设的人也倾向于认为货币政策不应该被用作稳定政策的工具。

    For some, the events of the early 1980s weakened support for the rational expectations hypothesis; for others, those same events strengthened support for this hypothesis. As we saw in the introduction to an earlier chapter, in 1979 President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Federal Reserve and pledged his full support for whatever the Fed might do to contain inflation. Mr. Volcker made it clear that the Fed was going to slow money growth and boost interest rates. He acknowledged that this policy would have costs but said that the Fed would stick to it as long as necessary to control inflation. Here was a monetary policy that was clearly announced and carried out as advertised. But the policy brought on the most severe recession since the Great Depression—a result that seems inconsistent with the rational expectations argument that changing expectations would prevent such a policy from having a substantial effect on real GDP.
    ::对一些人来说,1980年代初期的事件削弱了对合理预期假设的支持;对另一些人来说,这些事件加强了对这一假设的支持。 正如我们在前一章的导言中看到的那样,1979年,总统吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)任命保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)为美联储主席,并承诺全力支持美联储为遏制通货膨胀可能采取的任何行动。沃尔克先生明确表示,美联储将减缓货币增长,提高利率。他承认,这一政策会有成本,但他说,美联储将坚持这一政策,只要有必要控制通货膨胀。 这是明确宣布并按广告所宣布的货币政策。 但自大萧条以来最严重的衰退所带来的政策结果似乎与合理预期的论据不一致,即改变预期会阻止这种政策对实际GDP产生实质性影响。

    Others, however, argue that people were aware of the Fed’s pronouncements but were skeptical about whether the anti-inflation effort would persist, since the Fed had not vigorously fought inflation in the late 1960s and the 1970s. Against this history, people adjusted their estimates of inflation downward slowly. In essence, the recession occurred because people were surprised that the Fed was serious about fighting inflation.
    ::然而,其他人则认为人们知道美联储的言论,但对反通胀努力是否会持续下去持怀疑态度,因为美联储在1960年代后期和1970年代没有大力遏制通胀。 与这一历史相比,人们缓慢地调整了通胀估计。 实质上,衰退之所以发生,是因为人们惊讶美联储是否认真对待通胀。

    Regardless of where one stands on this debate, one message does seem clear: once the Fed has proved it is serious about maintaining price stability, doing so in the future gets easier. To put this in concrete terms, Volcker’s fight made Greenspan’s work easier, and Greenspan’s legacy of low inflation should make Bernanke’s easier.
    ::不论这场辩论的方方面面如何,一个信息似乎十分明确:一旦美联储证明它认真对待维持物价稳定,在未来这样做就更容易了。 具体地说,沃尔克的斗争让格林斯潘的工作更加容易,格林斯潘的低通胀遗产应该让伯南克变得更加容易。

    Video: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on the U.S. Economy
    ::录像:前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan),

    Answer the self check questions below to monitor your understanding of the concepts in this section.
    ::回答下面的自我核对问题,以监测你对本节概念的理解。

    Self Check Questions
    ::自查问题

    1. What is the monetary policy?
    ::1. 货币政策是什么?

    2. What is the fractional reserve system?
    ::2. 分数储备制度是什么?

    3. What are legal reserves?
    ::3. 什么是法律储备?

    4. What is a reserve requirement?
    ::4. 什么是准备金要求?

    5. What are the 6 tools of monetary policy?
    ::5. 货币政策的6个工具是什么?

    6. What is the difference between an easy money policy and a tight money policy?
    ::6. 宽松的货币政策和紧缩的货币政策有什么区别?

    7. Research current interest rates online. Is the U.S. in an easy or tight money policy right now? How can you tell? Why would the government want to have this type of money policy now?
    ::7. 在线研究当前的利率,美国现在是否在宽松或紧缩的货币政策中?你怎么知道?政府为什么现在想要这种货币政策?