Section outline

  • General

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  • 相关性和因果关系

    A plate filled with various sugary snacks including cupcakes, chocolates, candy, and donuts.
     

    Sugar consumption is up. Global temperatures are up. Is one causing the other?
    ::糖的消耗量上升了 全球气温上升了

    Is the rise in sugar consumption in America causing the average global   to rise? Are rising temperatures causing people to eat more sugar? Both of these factors are rising, but how are they related? Are they related by  correlation ,  causation , or both?
    ::美国食糖量的上升是否导致全球平均增长? 气温的上升是否导致人们食糖量增加? 这两种因素都在上升,但它们之间有何关联? 它们是否与相关性、因果关系或两者相关?

    Correlation
    ::关联关系

    By doing background research in the scientific literature, we can discover the following  facts :
    ::通过对科学文献进行背景研究,我们可以发现以下事实:

    • Average global temperature has been rising for the past several decades.
      ::过去几十年来,全球平均气温一直在上升。
    • Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been rising for the past several decades.
      ::过去几十年来,大气二氧化碳水平一直在上升。
    • Fossil fuels  have been burned at increasing rates over the past several decades, and burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into the  atmosphere .
      ::在过去几十年中,化石燃料燃烧的速度越来越快,燃烧化石燃料将二氧化碳释放到大气中。

    A  correlation  is the mutual relationship between two or more things. We see here a correlation between three things: (1) CO 2  emissions from fossil fuel burning are rising (2) atmospheric CO 2  levels are rising, and (3) average global temperatures are rising. These three things exhibit  positive correlation . They are all going in the same direction. If one factor rises while another sinks they have  negative correlation . For example, the amount of forest land is decreasing. This factor has a negative correlation with global temperature.
    ::一个是两个或更多事物的相互关系。我们在这里看到三点之间的相互关系sad1) 化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放量正在上升;(2) 大气二氧化碳水平正在上升;(3) 全球平均气温正在上升。这三点显示出正相关关系。它们都朝着同一方向发展。如果一个因素上升而另一个沉入另一个沉淀物则有负相关关系。例如,林地数量正在下降。这个因素与全球温度呈负相关关系。

    Causation
    ::因果关系

    But correlation does not necessarily indicate causation.  Causation  refers to the factor that is producing the effect. If I push a toy car, I will cause it to move. To explain the difference between correlation and causation, let’s look at an example. Sugar consumption in the United States has been rising for decades ( Figure ). There is a positive correlation between sugar consumption and rising average global temperatures.
    ::但关联并不一定表明因果关系。 原因指的是产生效果的因素。 如果我推动玩具汽车,我会让它移动。 要解释关联性和因果关系的区别,我们举个例子。 美国的糖消费几十年来一直在上升(图 ) 。 糖消费与全球平均气温上升之间存在正相关关系。

    Graph showing total American sugar consumption from 1970 to 2009 in millions of short tons.
     
    American consumption of sugar, 1970-2009.

    Is the rise in sugar consumption causing the rise in global temperatures? Is the rise in global temperatures causing the rise in sugar consumption? These two things aren't impossible, but they are extremely unlikely. There’s no  mechanism  for one to increase the other. Here there is correlation, not causation. To establish causation, we need to know how one would cause the other.
    ::糖消费量的上升是否导致了全球气温的上升?全球气温的上升是否导致了糖消费量的上升? 这两种事情并非不可能,但极不可能。 没有机制可以让一方增加另一方。 这里存在关联性,而不是因果关系。 要确定因果关系,我们需要知道一方会如何造成另一方。

    Fossil Fuel Burning Causes Temperatures to Rise
    ::化石燃料燃烧导致升温温度上升

    Here is a brief outline of the way an increase in CO 2  can increase global temperatures. This is a logical step-by-step argument. There is no part of this explanation that goes beyond the evidence.
    ::以下简要概述二氧化碳的增加如何增加全球气温。 这是一个合乎逻辑的逐步论证。 这一解释中没有任何部分超出证据范围。

    • Greenhouse gases  in the atmosphere trap  heat . CO 2  is a greenhouse gas.
      ::二氧化碳是一种温室气体。
    • Burning fossil fuels releases CO 2  into the atmosphere.
      ::燃烧化石燃料将二氧化碳释放到大气中。
    • The more greenhouse gases there are in the atmosphere, the more heat can be trapped.
      ::大气中的温室气体越多 热度就越可能被困住
    • The more heat that’s trapped, the warmer average global temperatures are.
      ::热量越高, 全球平均气温就越暖和。

    Because carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, increased CO 2  in the atmosphere causes average global temperatures to rise. We found one cause for rising global temperatures. There are also others.  Climate  change  science  is dealt with extensively in the chapters  Atmospheric Processes  and   and Climate .
    ::由于二氧化碳是一种温室气体,大气中的二氧化碳增加导致全球平均气温上升。我们发现了全球气温上升的一个原因。还有其他原因。气候变化科学在大气过程和气候章节中得到了广泛论述。

    Summary
    ::摘要

    • Correlation is a mutual relationship between two factors. Correlation does not imply causation.
      ::相互关系是两个因素之间的一种相互关系,关系并不意味着因果关系。
    • If one factor is responsible for the change in another factor, there is causation.
      ::如果一个因素对另一个因素的变化负有责任,则有因果关系。
    • Establishing causation requires a mechanism to show how one factor can influence the other.
      ::建立因果关系需要有一种机制来表明一个因素如何影响另一个因素。
    • Burning fossil fuels releases CO 2  into the atmosphere. That CO 2  traps heat, which causes global temperatures to rise.
      ::燃烧化石燃料将二氧化碳排放到大气中。 二氧化碳捕获热,导致全球气温上升。

    Review
    ::回顾

    1. Describe correlation. Describe causation.
      ::描述相关性,描述因果关系。
    1. Sugar consumption has been rising in the U.S. for decades. Can you think of something this might be positively correlated with? Could one be causal to the other?
      ::几十年来,美国食糖消费一直在上升。 你能想到这与什么有正相关吗? 其中一个可能是另一个的因果关系吗?
    1. Outline the logical steps that link fossil fuel emissions to rising average global temperature.
      ::概述将矿物燃料排放与全球平均气温上升相联系的逻辑步骤。

    Explore More
    ::探索更多

    Use the resources below to answer the questions that follow.
    ::利用以下资源回答以下问题。

     

     

    1. Why did people fear polio?
      ::为什么人们害怕脊髓灰质炎?
    1. Why did people think there was a correlation between ice cream and polio?
      ::为什么人们认为冰淇淋和脊髓灰质炎之间有相关关系?