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  • 科学优学和其他滥用科学现象

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    What Does Your Skull Reveal About You?
    ::你的骨骼对你有什么反应?

    This odd diagram shows areas of the brain that were once believed to be associated with different personality traits. The idea that different personality traits are located in different areas of the brain was  the basis of the 1 9th century discipline known as phrenology. Proponents of phrenology assumed that a person's propensity for a given personality trait could be determined by mapping the outer topography of the skull.  These ideas were later discredited and phrenology was labeled as  pseudoscience.
    ::这个奇异的图表显示了曾经被认为与不同个性特征相联系的大脑区域。 不同个性特征位于大脑不同区域的观点是19世纪被称为“人文学”的学科的基础。 人文学的倡导者认为,一个人对特定个性特征的倾向可以通过对头骨外部地形进行测绘来确定。 这些想法后来被抹黑了,而人文学则被贴上假科学的标签。

    What Is Pseudoscience?
    ::什么是普生科学?

    Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice that is presented as scientific but does not adhere to the standards and methods of science . True science is based on repeated evidence-gathering and testing of falsifiable hypotheses . Pseudoscience does not adhere to these criteria.  In addition to  phrenology, some other examples of pseudoscience include astrology, extrasensory perception (ESP), reflexology, reincarnation, Scientology, channeling, and creation "science."

    ::理论科学是一种主张、信仰或实践,作为科学而提出,但不符合科学的标准和方法。真正的科学基于反复收集证据和测试可伪造的假设。理论科学不遵循这些标准。除了文字学外,其他一些伪科学的例子包括占星学、超感知(ESP)、反射学、转基因学、科学学、引导学和创造学“科学”。

    Characteristics of Pseudoscience
    ::理论科学的特征

    Whether a field is actually science or just pseudoscience is not always clear. However, pseudoscience generally exhibits certain tell-tale traits. Indicators of pseudoscience include:
    ::一个领域实际上是否科学或只是伪科学并不总是很清楚。 然而,伪科学通常具有某些分辨特征。 伪科学的指标包括:

    • The use of vague, exaggerated, or untestable claims:  Many claims made by pseudoscience cannot be tested with evidence . As a result, they cannot be falsified, even if they are not true.
      ::使用含糊、夸大或无法检验的主张:许多伪科学的主张不能用证据检验,因此,即使它们不是真的,也不能伪造。
    • An over-reliance on confirmation rather than refutation:  A ny incident that appears to justify a pseudoscience claim is treated as proof of the claim. Claims are as sumed true until proven otherwise, and the b urden of disproof is placed on skeptics of the claim.
      ::过分依赖确认而不是反驳:任何似乎证明伪科学索赔有理的事件都被视为索赔的证据,在未证明其他索赔之前,假定索赔属实,对索赔提出怀疑的责任是怀疑索赔。
    • A lack of openness to testing by other experts:  Practitioners of pseudoscience avoid subjecting their ideas to peer review. They may refuse to share their data and justify the need for secrecy with  claims  of proprietary or privacy. 
      ::缺乏对其他专家进行测试的开放性:伪科学从业者避免对其想法进行同侪审查,他们可能拒绝分享数据,并有理由认为需要与专利或隐私的主张保密。
    • An  absence of progress in advancing knowledge:  In pseudoscience, ideas are not subjected to repeated testing followed by rejection or refinement, as hypotheses are in true science. Ideas in pseudoscience  may remain unchanged for hundreds — or even thousands — of years. In fact, the older an idea is, the more it tends to be trusted in pseudoscience.
      ::在增进知识方面缺乏进展:在伪科学中,思想不会反复受到测试,然后被否定或改进,因为假设在真正的科学中是存在的,伪科学的思想可能在数百年甚至数千年中保持不变,事实上,古老的思想往往更相信伪科学。
    • Personalization of issues:  Proponents of pseudoscience adopt beliefs that have little or no rational basis, so they may try to confirm their beliefs by treating critics as enemies. Instead of arguing to support their own beliefs, they attack the motives and character of their critics.
      ::问题的个性化:伪科学的支持者采纳了很少或根本没有合理依据的信仰,这样他们就可以试图通过将批评者视为敌人来确认自己的信仰。 他们非但没有主张支持自己的信仰,反而攻击批评者的动机和特点。
    • The use of misleading language: Followers of pseudoscience may use scientific-sounding terms to make their ideas sound more convincing. For example, they may use the formal name dihydrogen monoxide to refer to plain old .
      ::使用误导性语言:伪科学的追随者可能会使用科学术语来使他们的想法更具有说服力。 例如,他们可能会使用正式的二氢一氧化二氢名称来指普通老的一氧化二氢。

    Persistence of Pseudoscience
    ::理论科学的持久性

    Despite failing to meet scientific standards, many pseudosciences survive. Some pseudosciences remain very popular with large numbers of believers. A good example is astrology.
    ::尽管没有达到科学标准,但许多伪科学仍能生存下来。 有些伪科学仍然受到大量信徒的欢迎。 占星学就是一个很好的例子。

    Astrology is the study of the movements and relative positions of celestial objects as a means for divining information about human affairs and events. Many ancient cultures attached importance to astronomical events, and some developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations . Throughout most of its history in the West, astrology was considered a scholarly tradition and was common in academic circles. With the advent of modern Western science, astrology was called into question. It was challenged on both theoretical and experimental grounds, and it was eventually shown to have no scientific validity or explanatory power.
    ::占星学是对天体运动和相对位置的研究,以此为手段掌握关于人类事务和事件的信息,许多古代文化重视天文事件,有些古代文化开发了从天体观测中预测地球事件的精密系统,在西方的大部分历史中,占星学被视为学术传统,在学术界很常见,随着现代西方科学的到来,占星学受到质疑,在理论和实验方面都受到挑战,最终证明它没有科学效力或解释力。

    Today, astrology is considered a pseudoscience, yet it continues to have many devotees. Most people know their astrological sign (see chart of zodiac signs ), and many people are familiar with the personality traits supposedly associated with their sign. Astrological readings and horoscopes are readily available online and in print media, and a lot of people read them, even if only occasionally . A bout a third of all adult Americans actually believe that astrology is scientific. Studies suggest that the  persistent popularity of pseudosciences such as astrology reflects a high level of scientific illiteracy. It seems that many Americans do not have an accurate understanding of scientific principles and methodology. They are not convinced by scientific arguments against their beliefs.
    ::今天,占星学被认为是一种伪科学,但它仍然有许多信徒。 大多数人知道他们的占星学标志(见黄昏标志图 ) , 许多人都熟悉与其标志有关的个性特征。 占星学和星座在网上和印刷媒体上很容易找到,许多人甚至偶尔阅读。 大约三分之一的成年美国人实际上认为占星学是科学的。 研究表明,诸如占星学等伪科学的持久流行反映了高水平的科学文盲。 许多美国人似乎对科学原理和方法缺乏准确的了解。 他们不相信反对其信仰的科学论据。

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    This astrological woodcut from the 16th century reflects how little this pseudoscience has changed.
    ::这个16世纪的占星木切割 反映了这个伪科学的改变是多么少。

    Dangers of Pseudoscience
    ::理论科学的危险

    Belief in astrology is unlikely to  cause a person harm, but belief in some other pseudosciences might — especially in health care-related areas . Treatments that seem scientific but are not may be ineffective, expensive, and even dangerous to patients. Seeking out pseudoscientific treatments may also delay or preclude patients from seeking scientifically-based medical treatments that have been tested and found safe and effective. In short, irrational health care may not be harmless.
    ::对占星学的信仰不会对人造成伤害,但相信某些其他伪科学,特别是在与保健有关的领域,似乎科学但并非无效、昂贵甚至对病人危险的治疗,寻找假科学治疗也可能拖延或阻止病人寻求已经检测并发现安全和有效的科学治疗,简言之,不合理的保健可能并非无害。

    Scientific Hoaxes, Frauds, and Fallacies
    ::科学高峰、欺诈和误判

    Pseudoscience is not the only way that science may be misused. Scientific hoaxes, frauds, and fallacies may misdirect the pursuit of science, put patients at risk, or mislead and confuse the public. An example of each of these misuses of science and its negative effects is described below.
    ::理论科学并不是科学被滥用的唯一方法。 科学骗局、欺诈和谬误可能误导科学追求,使病人处于危险之中,或者误导和混淆公众。 下文举例说明了这些滥用科学及其负面影响的事例。

    The Piltdown Hoax
    ::Piltdown 摇摆乐

    Piltdown Man (see picture ) was a paleontological hoax in which fragments were presented as the fossilized remains of a previously unknown early human. These fragments consisted of parts of a skull and jawbone, reported to have been found in 1908 in a gravel pit at Piltdown, East Sussex, England. The significance of the specimen remained the subject of controversy until it was exposed in 1953 as a hoax. It eventually came to light that the specimen consisted of the lower jawbone of an orangutan deliberately combined with skull bones of a modern human. The Piltdown hoax is perhaps the most infamous paleontological hoax ever perpetrated, both for its impact on the direction of research on human evolution and for the length of time between  its "discovery" and  its full exposure as a forgery.
    ::Piltdown Man(见图片)是一个古老的骗局,其中显示碎片是以前未知的早期人类的化石残骸。这些残块由头骨和下巴部分组成,据报于1908年在英格兰东苏塞克斯的Piltdown的一个碎石坑中发现。标本的意义一直存在争议,直到1953年暴露为骗局。最终发现标本包括一个猩猩的下下巴骨骨和现代人类的头骨。Piltdown骗局也许是有史以来最臭名昭著的古老骗局,因为它既影响到人类进化研究的方向,也影响到其“发现”和全面暴露为伪造之间的时间。

    This reconstruction of Piltdown Man's head was based on jaw and skull bone fragments.
    ::Piltdown人头部的重建 是基于下巴和头骨碎片

    In 1912, the head of the geological department at the British Museum proposed that Piltdown man represented an evolutionary missing link between apes and humans. With its human-like cranium and ape-like jaw, it seemed to support the idea then prevailing in England that human evolution began with the brain. The Piltdown specimen led scientists down a blind alley in the belief that the human brain increased in size before the jaw underwent size reductions to become more like the modern human jaw. This belief confused and misdirected the study of human evolution for decades, and actual of early humans were ignored because they didn't support the accepted paradigm.
    ::1912年,大英博物馆地质系主任提出,Piltdown人代表着猿人和人之间的进化缺失环节。以其人形的头领和象猿一样的下巴,它似乎支持当时在英国流行的关于人类进化始于大脑的想法。 Piltdown标本将科学家引向一条盲巷,相信在下巴变小之前人类大脑的大小会增加,从而更像现代人的下巴。这种信念混淆和误导了人类进化研究数十年,而早期人类的实际发展却被忽略了,因为他们不支持公认的范式。

    The Vaccine-Autism Fraud
    ::疫苗自闭欺诈

    You may have heard that certain vaccines put the health of young children at risk. This persistent idea is not supported by scientific evidence or accepted by the vast majority of experts in the field. It largely from an elaborate medical research fraud that was reported in a 1998 article published in the respected British medical journal,  The Lancet. The main author of the article was a British physician named Andrew Wakefield. In the article, Wakefield and his colleagues described case histories of 12 children, most of whom were reported to have developed autism soon after the administration of the MMR (measles,  mumps, rubella) vaccine.
    ::你可能听说某些疫苗会危及幼儿的健康,这种持久的想法没有科学证据的支持,也没有为该领域绝大多数专家所接受,主要是在1998年英国受尊敬的医学期刊《柳叶刀报》发表的一篇文章中报道的精心医学研究欺诈,文章的主要作者是英国医生Andrew Wakefield,在文章中,Wakefield和他的同事描述了12名儿童的案例记录,据报告,大多数儿童在MMMR疫苗(麻疹、腮腺炎、风疹)使用后不久就患了自闭症。

    Several subsequent peer-reviewed studies failed to show any association between the MMR vaccine and autism. It also later emerged that Wakefield had received research funding from a group of people who were suing vaccine manufacturers.  In 2004, ten of Wakefield's 12 coauthors formally retracted the conclusions in  their paper. In 2010, editors of  The Lancet retracted the entire paper. That same year, Wakefield was charged with deliberate falsification of research and barred from practicing medicine in the United . Unfortunately, by then, the damage had already been done. Parents afraid that their children would develop autism had refrained from having them vaccinated. British MMR vaccination rates fell from nearly 100 percent to 80 percent in the years following the study.  The consensus of medical experts today is that Wakefield's fraud put hundreds of thousands of children at risk because of the lower vaccination rates and also diverted research efforts and funding away from finding the true cause of autism.
    ::后来经过同行审查的几项研究未能显示MMR疫苗与自闭症之间有任何关联,后来又发现Wakefield从一群控告疫苗制造商的人那里获得了研究资金。2004年,Wakefield的12位共同作者中的10位正式撤回了他们论文中的结论。2010年,The Lancet的编辑收回了整篇论文。同年,Wakefield被指控蓄意篡改研究,并被禁止在美国执业。不幸的是,到那时,损害已经发生。担心其子女会发展自闭症的父母没有给他们接种疫苗。英国自闭症疫苗接种率在研究之后的几年里从近100%下降到80%。医学专家的共识是,Wakefield的欺诈行为使数十万儿童面临风险,因为疫苗接种率较低,还转移了研究工作和资金,使其无法找到自闭症的真正原因。

    Correlation-Causation Fallacy
    ::关联性 -- -- 降低成本

    Many statistical tests used in scientific research calculate correlations between variables. Correlation refers to how closely related two data sets are, which may be a useful starting point for further investigation. Correlation, however, is also one of the most misused types of evidence, primarily because of the logical fallacy that correlation implies causation. In reality, just because two variables are correlated does not necessarily mean that either variable causes the other.
    ::许多在科学研究中使用的统计测试都计算了变量之间的相互关系。关联性是指两个数据集之间的紧密关联,这也许是进一步调查的有益起点。然而,关联性也是滥用程度最大的证据类型之一,主要是因为关联性意味着因果关系的逻辑谬误。 事实上,仅仅因为两个变量相互关联,并不一定意味着两个变量都会导致另一个变量。

    A simple example, illustrated by the diagram , can be used to demonstrate the correlation-causation fallacy. Assume a study found that both ice cream sales and burglaries are correlated; that is, rates of both events increase together. If correlation really did imply causation, then you could conclude that ice cream sales cause burglaries, or vice versa. It is more likely, however, that a third variable, such as the weather , influences rates of both ice cream sales and burglaries. Both might increase when the weather is sunny, as represented by the diagram .
    ::以图表为例的一个简单例子可以用来证明相关原因的谬误。 假设一项研究发现,冰淇淋销售和入室盗窃是相互关联的,也就是说,这两种事件的发生率都同时上升。 如果相关关系确实暗示了因果关系,那么你可以得出结论,冰淇淋销售导致入室盗窃,或者反之亦然。 然而,更有可能的是,第三个变量,如天气,影响冰淇淋销售和入室盗窃的速率。 如图表所示,当天气晴朗时,两者都会增加。

    Ice cream sales and burglaries may be correlated, but that does not mean one causes the other. As this model shows, both may be caused by a third variable.
    ::冰淇淋销售和入室盗窃可能相互关联,但这并不意味着一种原因。 正如这一模型所显示的,这两种原因都可能由第三个变量造成。

    An actual example of the correlation-causation fallacy occurred during the latter half of the 20th century. Numerous studies showed that women taking replacement therapy (HRT) to treat menopausal symptoms also had a lower-than-average incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). This correlation was misinterpreted as evidence that HRT protects women against CHD. Subsequent studies that controlled other factors related to CHD disproved this presumed causal connection. The studies found that women taking HRT were more likely to come from higher socio-economic groups, with better-than-average diets and regimens. Rather than HRT causing lower CHD incidence, these studies concluded that HRT and lower CHD were both effects of higher socio-economic status and related lifestyle factors.
    ::20世纪后半叶发生了一个相关因果关系谬误的实际例子,许多研究表明,为治疗更年期症状而接受替代疗法的妇女,其冠心病发病率也低于平均水平,被误解为HRT保护妇女免受CHD的伤害。随后开展的控制与CHD相关的其他因素的研究推翻了这一推定的因果关系。研究发现,接受HRT的妇女更有可能来自较高的社会经济群体,其饮食和疗程优于平均水平。这些研究得出的结论是,HRT和CHD较低是较高社会经济地位和相关生活方式因素的影响。

    Summary
    ::摘要

    • Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice that is presented as scientific, but does not adhere to scientific standards and methods. Examples of pseudoscience include phrenology, astrology, and creation "science."
      ::伪科学的例子包括人文学、占星学和创造学“科学 ” 。
    • Indicators of pseudoscience include untestable claims, lack of openness to testing by experts, absence of progress in advancing knowledge, and attacks on the  motives and character of critics.
      ::伪科学指标包括无法检验的声称、专家对测试缺乏开放性、知识进步缺乏进展、以及攻击批评者的动机和性质。
    • Some pseudosciences, including astrology, remain popular. This suggests that many people do not possess the scientific literacy needed to distinguish pseudoscience  from true science, or to be convinced by scientific arguments against them.
      ::包括占星学在内的一些伪科学仍然很受欢迎。 这表明许多人不具备将伪科学与真正的科学区分开来所需的科学知识,或者没有被反对他们的科学论据所说服的科学知识。
    • Belief in a pseudoscience such as astrology is unlikely to cause harm, but belief in pseudoscientific medical treatments may be harmful.
      ::相信像占星学这样的伪科学不会造成损害,但相信伪科学的医学治疗可能是有害的。
    • In addition to pseudoscience, other examples of the misuse of science include scientific hoaxes (such as the Piltdown hoax), scientific frauds (such as the MMR vaccine-autism fraud), and scientific fallacies (such as the correlation-causation fallacy).
      ::除了伪科学之外,滥用科学的其他例子包括科学骗局(如Piltdown骗局)、科学欺诈(如MMR疫苗-美容欺诈)和科学谬误(如相关因果关系谬误)。

    Review
    ::回顾

    1. Define pseudoscience. Give three examples.
    ::1. 界定伪科学,举三个例子。

    2. What are some indicators that a claim, belief, or practice might be pseudoscience rather than true science?
    ::2. 声称、信仰或实践可能是伪科学而不是真科学的一些指标是什么?

    3. Astrology was once considered a science, and it was common in academic circles. Why did its status change from a science to a pseudoscience?
    ::3. 占星学曾经被视为科学,在学术界很常见,为什么其地位从科学转变为伪科学?

    4. What are possible reasons that some pseudosciences remain popular even after they have been shown to have no scientific validity or explanatory power?
    ::4. 一些伪科学即使被证明没有科学效力或解释力,但又有什么可能的理由仍然受到欢迎?

    5. List three other ways besides pseudoscience that science can be misused, and identify an example of each.
    ::5. 除了伪科学之外,列出科学可能被滥用的其他三种方法,并找出每种方法的一个例子。

    6. Explain how misuses of science may waste money and effort. How can they  potentially cause harm to the public?
    ::6. 解释滥用科学如何浪费金钱和精力,如何可能危害公众?

    7. Many claims made by pseudoscience cannot be tested with evidence. From a scientific perspective, why is it important that claims be testable?
    ::7. 伪科学提出的许多索赔不能用证据检验,从科学角度看,为什么要求必须具有可检验性?

    8. What do you think is the difference between pseudoscience and belief?
    ::8. 你认为伪科学与信仰之间的区别是什么?

    9. If the conclusion drawn in a published scientific article is later found not to be true, does that necessarily mean the original research was fraudulent? Explain your answer.
    ::9. 如果后来在发表的科学文章中得出的结论被认为不属实,这是否必然意味着原研究是欺诈性的?

    10. Why do you think it was problematic that Andrew Wakefield received funding from a group of people who were suing vaccine manufacturers?
    ::10. 为什么你认为安德鲁·威克菲尔德从一群控告疫苗制造商的人那里获得资金会有问题?

    11. If you see a website that claims that an herbal supplement causes weight loss and they use a lot of scientific terms to explain how it works, can you be assured that the drug is scientifically proven to work? Why or why not?
    ::11. 如果你看到一个网站,声称草药补充会造成体重下降,而且它们使用许多科学术语来解释它是如何运作的,你可以放心,这种药物在科学上证明是有效的?为什么或为什么不能?

    12. True or False : If a claim is around for hundreds of years, it can automatically be trusted.
    ::12. 真实或虚假:如果一项债权存在数百年左右,可以自动信赖。

    13. True or False : Phrenology is a true science.
    ::13. 真实或虚假:哲学是一种真正的科学。

    14. What do you think it says about the 1998 Wakefield paper that ten of the 12 coauthors formally retracted their conclusions?
    ::14. 关于1998年Wakefield文件,12个共同作者中有10个正式撤回了他们的结论,你认为其中写了些什么?

    Explore More
    ::探索更多

    This fast-paced TED talk exposes ways that scientific evidence can be distorted.
    ::这种快速的TED演讲揭示了科学证据可能被扭曲的方式。

     Learn more about how to identify pseudoscience here:
    ::更多了解如何识别伪科学: