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  • 案例研究结论:是否开枪射击

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    Case Study Conclusion: To Give a  Shot o r Not
    ::案例研究结论:是否开枪射击

    As you read in the beginning of this chapter, n ew mother Samantha left her pediatrician’s office still unsure whether or not to vaccinate baby James. Dr. Rodriguez gave her a list of reputable sources where she could look up information about the safety of vaccines for herself, including  the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Samantha reads that the consensus within the scientific community is that there is no link between vaccines and autism. She finds a long list of studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals that disprove any link. Additionally, some of the studies are “meta-analyses” that analyzed the findings from many individual studies. Samantha is reassured by the fact that many different researchers, using a large number of subjects in numerous well-controlled and well-reviewed studies, all came to the same conclusion.
    ::正如你在本章开头所读到的,新母亲萨曼莎离开了她的儿科医生办公室,仍然不确定是否给婴儿詹姆斯接种疫苗。罗德里格斯博士给了她一份有声望的来源清单,她可以从中查看有关疫苗安全的信息,包括疾病控制和预防中心(CDC ) 。 萨曼莎指出,科学界的共识是疫苗和自闭症之间没有联系。 她发现经同行审查的科学期刊上发表的大量研究清单,这些研究否定了任何联系。 此外,有些研究是分析许多个别研究结果的“元数据分析 ” 。 萨曼莎感到放心的是,许多不同的研究人员,在很多受到严格控制和审查的研究中使用了大量科目,都得出了同样的结论。

    Samantha also went back to the web page that originally scared her about the safety of vaccines. She found that the author was not a medical doctor or scientific researcher, but rather a self-proclaimed “child wellness expert.” He sold books and advertising on his site, some of which were related to claims of vaccine injury. She realized that he was both an unqualified and potentially biased source of information.
    ::萨曼莎还回到了最初让她担心疫苗安全的网页上,她发现提交人不是医生或科学研究人员,而是自称为“儿童健康专家”的“儿童健康专家”。 他在他的网站上出售书籍和广告,其中一些与声称的疫苗伤害有关,她意识到他既是不合格的,也可能是有偏见的信息来源。

    Samantha also realized that some of his arguments were based on correlations between autism and vaccines, but, as the saying goes, “correlation does not imply causation.” For instance, the recent rise in autism rates may have occurred during the same time period as an increase in the number of vaccines given in childhood, but Samantha could think of many other environmental and social factors that have also changed during this time period. There are just too many variables to come to the conclusion that vaccines, or anything else, are the cause of the rise in autism rates based on that type of argument alone. Also, she learned that the age of onset of autism symptoms happens to typically be around the time that the MMR vaccine is first given, so the apparent association in the timing may just be a coincidence. 
    ::萨曼莎还意识到,他的一些论点是基于自闭症和疫苗之间的相互关系,但俗话说 , “ 自闭症的发病率并不意味着因果关系 ” 。 比如,最近自闭症发病率的上升可能发生在童年疫苗数量增加的同期,但萨曼莎可以想到在此期间也发生了变化的许多其他环境和社会因素。 仅仅因为疫苗或其他因素是仅以这种论点为基础的自闭症发病率上升的原因这一结论,所以存在太多的变数。 此外,她了解到,自闭症症状发病的年龄通常发生在首次提供MMMR疫苗的时候,因此时间上的明显关联可能只是巧合。

    Finally, Samantha came across news about a measles outbreak that originated in California in 2014 and 2015. Measles wasn’t just a disease of the past! She learned that measles and whooping cough, which had previously been rare thanks to widespread vaccinations, are now on the rise, and that people choosing not to vaccinate their children seems to be one of the contributing factors. She realized that it is important to vaccinate her baby against these diseases, not only to protect him from their potentially deadly effects, but also to protect others in the population.
    ::最后,萨曼莎看到关于2014年和2015年加利福尼亚爆发麻疹的消息。 麻疹不仅仅是过去的一种疾病。 她了解到麻疹和百日咳(以前由于广泛接种疫苗而罕见的麻疹和百日咳)正在上升,而选择不给孩子接种疫苗的人似乎是造成这些疾病的原因之一。 她意识到为婴儿接种疫苗的重要性,这不仅是为了保护婴儿免受其潜在的致命影响,也是为了保护人口中其他人。

    In her reading, Samantha learns that scientists do not yet know the causes of autism, but she feels reassured by the abundance of data that disproves any link with vaccines. She thinks that the potential benefits of protecting her baby’s health against deadly diseases outweighs any unsubstantiated claims about vaccines. She will be making an appointment to get baby James his shots soon.
    ::在阅读中,萨曼莎了解到科学家还不知道自闭症的原因,但她对大量数据反驳了与疫苗的任何关联感到放心。 她认为保护婴儿健康免受致命疾病影响的潜在好处大于任何有关疫苗的无事实根据的说法。 她将很快预约让詹姆斯宝宝接受疫苗。

    Chapter Summary
    ::章次摘要

    In this chapter, you learned about some of the same concepts that helped Samantha make an informed decision. Specifically:  
    ::在本章中,你了解到一些帮助萨曼莎做出知情决定的相同概念。

    • Science is a distinctive way of gaining knowledge about the natural world that is based on the use of evidence to logically test ideas. As such, science is a  process,  as well as  a body of knowledge.
      ::科学是获取自然世界知识的独特方式,其基础是利用证据来逻辑测试思想。 因此,科学是一个过程,也是一个知识体。
    • A scientific theory, such as the germ theory of disease, is the highest level of explanation in science. A theory is a broad explanation for many phenomena that is widely accepted because it is supported by a great deal of evidence.
      ::科学理论,如疾病细菌理论,是科学中最高层次的解释。 理论是对许多被广泛接受的现象的广泛解释,因为它得到了大量证据的支持。
    • The scientific i nvestigation is the cornerstone of science as a process. A scientific investigation is a systematic approach to answering questions about the physical and natural world. An investigation may be observational or experimental.
      ::科学调查是一个过程,科学调查是科学的基石,科学调查是一种系统的方法,用来回答关于物理和自然世界的问题,调查可以是观察性的,也可以是实验性的。
    • A scientific experiment is a type of scientific investigation in which the researcher manipulates variables under controlled conditions to test expected outcomes. Experiments are the gold standard for scientific investigations and can establish causation between variables.
      ::科学实验是一种科学研究,研究人员在受控制的条件下操纵变量,以测试预期结果,实验是科学研究的黄金标准,可以确定变量之间的因果关系。
    • Nonexperimental scientific investigations such as observational studies and modeling may be undertaken when experiments are impractical, unethical, or impossible. Observational studies generally can establish correlation — but not causation — between variables.
      ::在实验不切实际、不道德或不可能进行时,可以进行观察研究和建模等非实验性科学调查,观察研究一般可以确定变数之间的相互关系,但不能确定因果关系。
    • A pseudoscience, such as astrology, is a field that is presented as scientific but that does not adhere to scientific standards and methods. Other misuses of science include deliberate hoaxes, frauds, and fallacies made by researchers.
      ::假科学,如占星学,是科学领域,但不符合科学标准和科学方法,其他滥用科学的行为包括故意欺骗、欺诈和研究人员的谬误。
    • Strict guidelines must be followed when using human subjects in scientific research. Among the most important protections is the requirement for informed consent.
      ::在科学研究中使用人的主题时必须遵守严格的准则,最重要的保护措施之一是要求知情同意。

    Now that you know about the nature and process of science, you can apply these concepts in the next chapter to the study of human biology.
    ::既然你知道科学的性质和过程, 你可以把这些概念应用到 人类生物学研究的下一章。

    Chapter Summary Review
    ::" 概述 " 章次

    1. Which of the following is the best example of “doing science?”
    ::1. 以下哪一种是 " 做科学? " 的最佳例子?

    a. Memorizing the processes of the water cycle
    ::a. 水循环过程的记忆化

    b. L earning how to identify trees from their leaves
    ::b. 学习如何辨别树叶上的树木

    c. L earning the names of all the bones in the human body
    ::c. 学习人体所有骨头的名称

    d. M aking observations of wildlife while hiking in the woods
    ::d. 观察在树林中徒步的野生生物

    2. A scientist develops a new idea based on her observations of nature. What should she do next?
    ::2. 科学家根据其对自然的观察,提出一个新的想法,下一步她应做什么?

    a. Think of a way to test the idea
    ::a. 考虑一种检验这一想法的方法

    b. C laim that she has discovered a new theory
    ::b. 声称她发现了一种新的理论

    c. R eject any evidence that conflicts with the idea
    ::c. 拒绝任何与该想法相冲突的证据

    d.   L ook only for evidence that supports the idea
    ::d. 只寻找支持这一想法的证据

    3. Which of the following is defined as a possible answer to a scientific question?
    ::3. 以下哪一种被界定为对科学问题的可能答案?

    a. An observation
    ::a. 意见

    b. D ata
    ::b. 数据

    c. A  hypothesis
    ::c. 假设

    d. S tatistics
    ::d. 统计统计

    4. Do scientists usually come up with a hypothesis in the absence of any observations? Explain your answer.
    ::4. 科学家通常在没有观测的情况下提出假设吗?解释你的答复。

    5. Why does a good hypothesis have to be falsifiable?
    ::5. 为什么一个好的假设必须伪造?

    6. Name one scientific law.
    ::6. 列举一项科学法。

    7. Name one scientific theory.
    ::7. 列举一个科学理论。

    8. Give an example of a scientific idea that was later discredited.
    ::8. 举一个科学想法的例子,这种想法后来被抹黑。

    9. Would the idea that the Earth revolves around the Sun be considered consensus science or frontier science?
    ::9. 地球围绕太阳旋转的想法是否被视为协商一致的科学或前沿科学?

    10. True or False:  A scientific investigation always follows the same sequence of steps in a linear fashion.
    ::10. 真实或假:科学调查总是以线性方式遵循相同的步骤顺序。

    11. True or False:  Data that does not support a hypothesis is not useful.
    ::11. 真实或虚假:不支持假设的数据没有用处。

    12. True or False:  Experimentation is the only valid type of scientific investigation.
    ::12. 真实或虚假:实验是唯一有效的科学调查类型。

    13. True or False:  Correlation does not imply causation. 
    ::13. 真实或虚假:关联并不意味着因果关系。

    14. Explain why science is considered an iterative process.
    ::14. 解释为什么科学被视为一个迭接过程。

    15. A statistical measurement called a P-value is often used in science to determine whether or not a difference between two groups is actually significant or simply due to chance. A P-value of 0.03 means that there is a 3% chance that the difference is due to chance alone. Do you think a P-value of 0.03 would indicate that the difference is likely to be significant? Why or why not? 
    ::15. 称为P值的统计计量在科学中经常用来确定两个组之间的差别是否确实很大或仅仅是偶然造成的。0.03的P值意味着差差有3%是因偶然造成的。你认为0.03的P值是否表明差别可能很大?为什么或为什么不是?

    16. Why is it important that scientists communicate their findings to others? How do they usually do this? 
    ::16. 为什么科学家必须将研究结果告知他人?他们通常如何这样做?

    17. What is a “control group” in science?
    ::17. 什么是科学中的 " 控制组 " ?

    18. In a scientific experiment, why is it important to only change one variable at a time? 
    ::18. 在一次科学实验中,为什么一次只改变一个变量很重要?

    19. Which is the dependent variable – the variable that is manipulated or the variable that is being affected by the change?
    ::19. 依附变量是哪一种? 被操纵的变量还是受变化影响的变量?

    20. Rank the following types of scientific studies in order of their typical strength, from those that are generally the least conclusive to those that are generally the most conclusive:
    ::20. 按以下各类科学研究的典型强度排列其类别,从一般结论性最低的研究到一般结论性最强的研究:

    cohort; case-control; double-blind; cross-sectional; blind
    ::组群; 案件控制; 双盲; 跨部门; 盲人

    21. Which is most likely to show or disprove causation between two variables?
    ::21. 哪些最有可能显示或否定两个变数之间的因果关系?

    a. A controlled experiment
    ::a. 控制试验

    b. A n observational study
    ::b. 观察研究

    c. T he development of a hypothesis
    ::c. 假设的发展

    d. A n observation
    ::d. 意见

    22. You see an ad for a “miracle supplement” called NQP3 that claims the supplement will reduce belly fat. They say it works by reducing the hormone cortisol and by providing your body with missing unspecified “nutrients”, but they do not cite any peer-reviewed clinical studies. They show photographs of three people who appear slimmer after taking the product. A board-certified plastic surgeon endorses the product on television. Answer the following questions about this product.
    ::22. 你看到一个名为NQP3的 " 奇迹补充物 " 广告,该广告声称该补充物会减少腹部脂肪,他们说通过减少荷尔蒙皮质质素和向您提供缺失的 " 营养素 " 来减少腹部脂肪,但他们没有引用任何经同行审查的临床研究,其中展示了三个在服用该产品后显得瘦的人群的照片,一名经董事会认证的整形外科医生在电视上认可该产品,回答以下关于该产品的问题。

    a. Do you think that because a doctor endorsed the product, it really works? Explain your answer.
    ::a. 你认为,因为医生认可了该产品,它真的有效吗?解释你的答复。

    b. What are two signs that these claims could actually be pseudoscience instead of true science?
    ::b. 有两种迹象说明这些说法实际上可能是伪科学而不是真正的科学?

    c. Do you think the photographs are good evidence that the product works? Why or why not?
    :sadc) 你认为照片是否很好地证明产品有效?为什么或为什么不能?

    d. If you wanted to do a strong scientific study of whether this supplement does what it claims, what would you do? Be specific about the subjects, data collected, how you would control variables, and how you would analyze the data.
    ::d. 如果您想对本补编是否照其要求行事进行强有力的科学研究,你会怎么做?具体涉及主题、收集的数据、如何控制变量以及如何分析数据。

    e. What are some ways that you would ensure that the subjects in your experiment in part d are treated ethically and according to human subjects protections regulations?
    ::e. 你有哪些方法可以确保实验的d部分主体得到合乎道德的待遇,并符合人类主体保护条例?

    23. Which of the following is a pseudoscience?
    ::23. 以下哪一种是伪科学?

    a. B iology
    ::a. 生物学

    b. A strology
    ::b. 占星

    c. A stronomy
    ::c. 天文学

    d. E cology
    ::d. 生态学

    24. What is  informed consent? Under what circumstances might you encounter informed consent? 
    ::24. 什么是知情同意?在什么情况下你可能会遇到知情同意?