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  • 预测天气

    Lesson
    ::经验教训

     

    A couple sitting under an umbrella on a picnic blanket in the rain.
     

    Does a picnic bring rain?
    ::野餐会下雨吗?

     forecasts are better than they ever have been. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a 5- day  weather forecast today is as reliable as a 2-day forecast was 20 years ago. Now there's no excuse to be rained out on a picnic!
    ::根据世界气象组织(气象组织)的数据,今天5天的天气预报和20年前的2天预报一样可靠。 现在没有理由在野餐时下雨了!

    Numerical Weather Prediction
    ::数值天气预报

    The most accurate weather forecasts are made by advanced computers, with analysis and interpretation added by experienced meteorologists. These computers have up-to-date mathematical models that can use much more  data  and make many more calculations than would ever be possible by scientists working with just   and calculators. Meteorologists can use these results to give much more accurate weather forecasts and  climate  predictions.
    ::最准确的天气预报由先进的计算机进行,由经验丰富的气象学家进行分析和解释。 这些计算机拥有最新的数学模型,可以使用更多的数据,并且比科学家在公正计算和计算方面所能做的更多计算。 气象学家可以利用这些结果提供更准确的天气预报和气候预测。

    In Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), atmospheric data from many sources are plugged into supercomputers running complex mathematical models ( Figure   ). The models then calculate what will happen over time at various  altitudes  for a grid of evenly spaced locations. The grid points are usually between 10 and 200 kilometers apart. Using the results calculated by the  model , the program projects weather further into the future. It then uses these results to project the weather still further into the future, as far as the meteorologists want to go. Once a forecast is made, it is broadcast by  satellites  to more than 1,000 sites around the world.
    ::在数字天气预报(NWP)中,来自许多来源的大气数据被插入运行复杂数学模型的超级计算机(图 ) 。 模型然后计算出平均间距位置网格在不同高度一段时间内将发生的情况。 网格点通常相隔10至200公里。 利用模型计算的结果, 程序预测未来天气会更远。 然后利用这些结果预测未来天气, 只要气象学家愿意, 就会进一步预测未来。 一旦作出预测, 卫星就会向全世界1000多个地点广播。

    Weather forecast model output showing atmospheric data and vorticity patterns for analysis.
     
    A weather forecast using numerical weather prediction.

    NWP produces the most accurate weather forecasts, but as anyone knows, even the best forecasts are not always right.
    ::NWP提供最准确的天气预报,但正如任何人都知道的那样,即使最好的预报也并不总是对的。

    Weather prediction is extremely valuable for reducing property damage and even fatalities. If the proposed track of a   can be predicted, people can try to secure their property and then evacuate ( Figure   ).
    ::天气预测对于减少财产损失甚至死亡人数极有价值,如果可以预测拟议的轨迹,人们可以设法保护自己的财产,然后撤离(图......)。

    Weather forecast map showing the predicted path of Hurricane Rita on September 22, 2005.
     
    By predicting Hurricane Rita’s path, it is likely that lives were saved.

    Summary
    ::摘要

    • Meteorologists use computers to crank data through mathematical models to forecast the weather.
      ::气象学家使用计算机通过数学模型来转换数据,以预报天气。
    • Numerical weather prediction calculates what will happen to conditions horizontally and vertically over an area.
      ::数字天气预测计算出一个区域上水平和垂直状况的发生情况。
    • Weather forecasts can go further into the future than ever.
      ::天气预报可以比以往更深入地展望未来。

    Review
    ::回顾

    1. What is numerical weather prediction?
      ::数字天气预测是什么?
    1. Even with numerical weather prediction, meteorologists have a difficult time predicting the path of a hurricane more than a day or two into the future. Why?
      ::即使有了数字天气预测,气象学家也很难预测未来一两天以上的飓风路径。 为什么?
    1. One popular online weather prediction site goes 10 days out and another goes 15 days out. Why the discrepancy?
      ::一个流行的在线天气预报网站持续了10天,另一个15天。为什么出现差异?

    Explore More
    ::探索更多

    Use this resource to answer the questions that follow.
    ::使用此资源回答下面的问题 。

     

     

     

     

    1. Explain how scientists monitor weather above Earth.
      ::解释科学家如何监测地球上空的天气。
    1. What is numerical weather prediction?
      ::数字天气预测是什么?
    1. What is the purpose of the Meteor Satellite?  
      ::气象卫星的目的是什么?