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  • 计算有非等似结果的简单事件概率

    In This Lesson
    ::在本课程中

    You  will explore more events with not equally likely outcomes . In real life, it is rare to have events where all the outcomes are equally likely to occur.  Hence, you will study events where not everything is fair ; some outcomes could be more likely to occur than others.
    ::您将探索更多事件, 其结果并不同样可能。 在现实生活中, 所有结果都同样可能发生的事件很少发生。 因此, 您将研究并非一切都公平的事件; 有些结果比其他的结果更有可能发生。

     

    Throwing Darts
    ::投投投投投投篮

    Below is a typical dartboard. There are 20 sections on the dartboard, and you have an equal likelihood of hitting any of them. The numbers around the circle represent the point values for each section if you are keeping score.  In the center of the dartboard , there is a bullseye, with a ring around it (called the outer bull). T here are also two red/green rings. The outer  ring   doubles the points and the inner ring triples the points . All of these red/green segments have the same probabilities of being hit as other segments in the same ring. The bullseye and the ring around it also have different probabilities.
    ::下面是典型的飞镖板。 飞镖板上有20个区块, 你同样可能打中其中任何一个区块。 圆圈周围的数字代表每个区块的点值, 如果您要保持得分。 在飞镖板中央, 有一个公牛眼, 周围有一个环( 称为外公牛 ) 。 还有两个红/ 绿环。 外环将点数增加一倍, 内环将点数增加三倍。 所有这些红/ 绿色区块被击中的可能性与同一区块中的其他区块相同。 公牛眼及其周围的环也具有不同的概率 。

    S kill is a major factor when playing darts, but in this interactive, you will only look at the probabilities  using the amount of area each takes. Determine different probabilities by clicking on the sections . Then, see which section (bullseye, outer bull, inner/outer ring segments, or sections) is   the  most and least likely to be hit. The "pie" sections (black or white ) have the same probability (excluding the rings).  The p robabilities are based on a standard dartboard.    
    ::玩飞镖时, 技能是一个主要因素, 但在此互动中, 您将只使用每个区域的数量来查看概率 。 点击区域来确定不同的概率 。 然后, 查看哪个区域( 丁眼、 外公牛、 内环/ 外环段或区块) 最最有可能被击中 。 “ pie” 区域( 黑或白) 的概率相同( 不包括环子 ) 。 概率以标准飞镖板为基础 。

     

    INTERACTIVE
    Throwing Darts... Again
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    • Click on the dart board to see the probability of hitting that specific section.
      ::点击飞镖板以看到击中该特定部分的概率。
    • Click multiple sections to see the probability of hitting any of those sections.
      ::单击多个区域以看到击中其中任何一个区域的概率。
    • Click the Reset button to deselect all.
      ::单击重置按钮取消全部选择 。
    Your device seems to be offline.
    Please check your internet connection and try again.
    +
    Do you want to reset the PLIX?
    Yes
    No

     

     

     

    Think about the tree diagram for this dartboard. Now, determine what the tree diagram would look like if you threw two darts. How would the sample space change? How many different outcomes are there? 
    ::想想这个飞镖板的树图。 现在, 确定如果扔了两只飞镖, 树图会是什么样子 。 样本空间会怎样变化? 有多少结果不同 ?

    Darts is a complicated game of skill.  You know by looking at the board that some areas are easier to hit than others just by their size. Think about how practice and skill could improve your probability of hitting a bullseye. Is this measurable?
    ::Darts是一个复杂的技能游戏。你看板子就知道,有些地区比其他地区的大小更容易被击中。想想实践和技能如何能提高你击中公牛眼的概率。这可以衡量吗?

      

    It's in the Bag
    ::在包里,在包里

    Jenny  has a bag of 16 marbles, with 6 red, 4 blue, 3 green, 2 black, and one purple. Use the interactive to determine the probability of  getting  a red marble out of the bag. Then, determine if  the probability of a red marble  is different  than the probabilities of other colors.
    ::珍妮有一袋16大理石, 6个红色, 4个蓝色, 3个绿色, 2个黑色, 和1个紫色。 使用互动来确定从袋子里取出红大理石的可能性。 然后, 确定红大理石的概率是否与其他颜色的概率不同 。

    • Move the marbles out of the bag to see the  how the probabilities change.
      ::把弹珠从袋子里移开 看看概率是如何变化的
    • The probabilities of each color are shown to the right of the paper bag.
      ::纸袋右侧显示每种颜色的概率。

     

     

     

     

    Discussion Question
    ::讨论问题

    Is finding the likelihood of the next marble picked the same when the outcomes are equally likely versus not equally likely?
    ::发现下一次大理石弹出的可能性是否在结果同样可能与不同样可能时相同?

    It does not matter if the outcomes are equally likely or not; finding the likelihood of the next marble uses same process, by the :
    ::其结果是否同样可能无关紧要;通过下列方法,发现下一道大理石的可能性使用同样的过程:

    number of times an event occurs total number of outcomes

    ::结果总数

    Make sure to adjust t he number of outcomes in the denominator because it could be less than what it was when the  experiment began. 
    ::确保调整分母中的结果数量, 因为它可能少于实验开始时的水平。

     Summary
    ::摘要

    • Use probability models to help you determine probability of events.
      ::使用概率模型帮助您确定事件的概率 。
    • Prediction with probability is the same, regardless of if the outcomes are equally likely or not.
      ::预测概率相同,无论结果是否同样可能。